GDT: The Alberta Election 2012 - The Morning After - PC Majority Government

[Fire]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

First of all, why the hell is that article on Danielle in the Technology section of the Herald?

Now as to said article, it's nice that they'll consider changing things, but realistically they need the PCs to flop to have any chance of getting more seats in the next election. 17 seats is only good because its Alberta and thats what qualifies for "opposition", but how can they add 27 seats without really any power whatsoever?

27 seats sounds like a lot but if they move from 34% of the votes to 40% they form a majority government. They are not far off at all. The PCs will be adding to the debt the next 4 years and ignoring the Heritage Fund. Possibly adding or increasing taxes. It won't be hard to make up the difference.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by fotze

What kind of person sees that this innocent (and 100% self promoting act) act evoking such a reaction and:
A believes it's other people being wrong
B a good strategy

I'm sure a cafeteria worker who blows his load in the pudding thinks its just 2 mL in 10 L of pudding that doesn't affect the taste or pose any threat, thinks its just hotheads fretting over something insignificant.

Human calls are one thing, a computer, not defensible.

Well my defence here is of specific calls: human calls where people have said they'll support candidate "x" on election day and given their phone number to that campaign. Those people can and should expect phone calls to make sure they get out and vote. I'm not defending the right for every party to continually irritate people, and that's not what I'm saying works. I think that I was less than clear about that earlier in this thread, but I actually agree largely with the post from getbak (which was great, but too big to quote). They should have a law not to release all of this though, I agree.

Can I just say thanks for the multiple corrections on which party ran the deplorable ad against Chretien. Sorry for inadvertently maligning the Reform Party, but that wasn't really the point. All I was saying is that these ads weren't some Liberal invention as Resolute had tried to suggest.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by octothorp

I think there's a major difference: the Martin Liberals had control of the center of the Canadian political spectrum, and chose to give it up to move left, yielding the center-right (and arguably the absolute center) to the Tories.

That's really not arguable at all. The post-Chretien conservatives have never had 50% of the popular vote, and there's nobody right of them. The absolute center was and still is Liberal territory.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by Fire

27 seats sounds like a lot but if they move from 34% of the votes to 40% they form a majority government. They are not far off at all. The PCs will be adding to the debt the next 4 years and ignoring the Heritage Fund. Possibly adding or increasing taxes. It won't be hard to make up the difference.

Firstly, that is a 16 point swing. That's a big move. Secondly, unless a significant amount of those new WRP voters are in Calgary and Edmonton, they won't be forming government, let alone a majority.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Apologies if I missed it, but has First Lady posted since the results came in? Even if we are on different sides of the political spectrum, I enjoyed her posts and commentary throughout the campaign. I'd like to see her perspective on what was surely a disappointing night for her party.

Bleah, yes and no.

Originally Posted by Dion

No comments from First lady. I also look forward to hearing what she has to say.

Thanks.

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

She did make a brief appearance in the other thread. She probably needs a little time to process what happened, and I think that's very understandable. I feel like I can say "I've been there."

She's also probably exhausted; I'm sure she'll give us her take in due course.

Yeah, a bit tired. I do work full-time too and 24th of month is billings day... So yeah I haven't read the entirety of this thread.

Did a search for my username to see who was dissing me and found everyone loves me....


When I actually think about the outcome in terms of seats we did pretty darn good; going from 4 to 17. At least I won't have to change name of my book.

Was bummed for a lot of our candidates, but some stand out.

Jeremy Nixon who poured his heart and soul into the campaign.
Paul Hinman, probably one of the best MLA's there ever will be and of course he is a very good friend.
Other close friends, Tim Dyck, Chris Challis, Vitor Marciano and Todd Loewen.

Thrilled for other friends like Bruce McAllister, Rod Fox and Ian Donovan.

Even more happy that the likes of Hunsperger and Leach didn't win. Perhaps some think they are good people and maybe they are in some ways. But in terms of the party I believe they were poison.

Right from the get-go they should have stepped down. As it was they left Danielle and the party in the worst possible position. In my mind their lack of action (doing the right thing) shows they were just in it for themselves. Harsh? Perhaps. Being a candidate in a party system though means you are part of team.

I believe this is what cost us many more seats than any of our weaker (and some stupid) policies.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Great! In that case, mind giving us your phone number? Just want to call you a few random times at my convenience. It will probably be on a weekend or during something fun.

The worst is trying to put 3 kids to bed and the phone goes off 2 or 3 times. Normally I just blame the wife's sister but even she has enough common sense to avoid bedtime.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

We appreciate your take on this stuff, FL. And as for Leech and Hunsberger I couldn't agree more.

Frankly, I think it's senseless to prognosticate about the future prospects of the party--circumstances will change by the next election, and we can't know what Redford will do (or how popular she'll be) until she does it.

In the meantime, WR is the official opposition, and that's a big change from Monday morning. I'm not a supporter, as you know--but I think that this is a huge bright side for the party.

Also, WR were clearly victims of first-past-the-post in a big way. A 9% difference in votes isn't that much--and if you look at Calgary, the Liberals managed 3 seats to Wild Rose's 2, in spite of having a much smaller vote share citywide. That's the reality of the system: but it also means that Wild Rose were actually very close to where they wanted to be--the number of seats can distract you from the fact that they really fell just short.

[Senator Clay Davis]

So I asked this earlier in this thread and now that its been a full day later, I figured I'll ask again...

Where's darklord at? Nobody in the election thread talked more crap then he did, at least he can come in and take the shaming he's earned.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

So I asked this earlier in this thread and now that its been a full day later, I figured I'll ask again...

Where's darklord at? Nobody in the election thread talked more crap then he did, at least he can come in and take the shaming he's earned.

There's no need to gloat or rub it in his face. If the election had gone the other way, I'm sure you'd hope WR supporters would be magnanimous in victory.

The only time it's acceptable to taunt a loser mercilessly is when Vancouver is eliminated from the playoffs. No mercy for Canucks fans! :P

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by kn

The assumption here is that the Wildrose remains a far-right party and I think Smith is too ambitious to stay there and be in the political hinterland forever. She knows that to capture the reigns of power they will need to toss out the untenable policies and revisit how they select candidates.

But I think the state of the economy hasn't been emphasized enough. Alberta is doing well and I think most people weren't willing to potentially sacrifice that stability.

My opinion is that the economic weakness of the Redford PC's will ultimately be their downfall.

They are on course for a major budget shortfall as is, without even counting the major spending increases that Reford announced during the campaign.

A report yesterday announced oil and gas revenues are below 50% of what has been expected so far, a worrying trend for sure with no clear sign of recovery.

Albertans wont respond positively to the introduction of a sales tax, and I can't see any other way the PC's can come close to solving their deficit issues. If the Wildrose can maintain their status as the only fiscally conservative party, it will definately attract many more voters.

[automaton 3]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

If PC's hold onto their right flank then Wildrose is destined for the dust heap. Far right parties simply have limited appeal to the median voter - the voter you need to capture to win elections.

Barring major scandal, economic upheaval, or the emergence of a viable governing alternative on the left, the PCs are on solid ground.

I predict that this is Wildrose's zenith.

Maybe. I would think that the WR will recognize that that some of their policy is not feasible, and that the social conservatives need to be completely reigned in.

Redford needs to throw the odd bone to fiscal conservatives and keep social engineering to a minimum. If she does not, I would think the WR will remain viable, and may even gain strength.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

It was the policy, put forward by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce and adopted by the Federal Government which forced refineries east of the Ottawa River to purchase higher priced Alberta oil. Thanks Ontario for helping create the Alberta Oil industry, we will always be thankful for your benevolence and kindness in subsidizing our province. Of course, when the Federal Liberals wanted to amend the energy policy, we got very upset because by that time we were making a lot of money and did not want the awful federal government to take our money.

The Feds forced everyone WEST of the Ottawa river to buy Alberta crude, and did so at a fixed price. For awhile that was higher than the world price, and later much lower. There were also export taxes placed on the product, which basically sucked the life out of the industry. Luckily the gov't moved that money to politically connected individuals drilling boondoggle wells. (Dome and Jack Gallagher)

I believe that was subsequently the largest bankruptcy in Canada up to that time, and it was basically based on smoke and ridiculous tax credits.

[You Need a Thneed]

It looks like Calgary-McCall is the only riding where the PC candidate didn't finish either first or second.

[Shawnski]

Found the little troublemaker...

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

There's no need to gloat or rub it in his face. If the election had gone the other way, I'm sure you'd hope WR supporters would be magnanimous in victory.

The only time it's acceptable to taunt a loser mercilessly is when Vancouver is eliminated from the playoffs. No mercy for Canucks fans! :P

I agree with this sentiment (Especially the part about making fun of Canucks fans). Maybe a huge problem with politics today is that it's become a different kind of sporting match where supporters throw on their colors and support their party like a sports fan supports their team. The only problem is that politics is supposed to be about running a government that has effects on how people live their lives and it's not innocently over after election night.

Unlike in sports where people stand by their team even if they have a bunch of diving losers playing for them, in politics when 'your' party starts resembling more what you do not support than what you do support you're actually supposed to switch sides.

[Doodlebug]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

It looks like Calgary-McCall is the only riding where the PC candidate didn't finish either first or second.

He had his own bad press issues.....

[Senator Clay Davis]

I don't want to gloat or rub it in at all, and if we had someone saying non-stop anti-Wildrose stuff, I'd be calling them out as well, just like I call out the many Canuck fans who disappear anytime things don't go their way. If you want to talk a lot thats cool by me, just be ready to deal with the potential consequences. Lets be real, if the WR were the party that won 61 seats I'm guessing he'd be all over this thread.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Makarov

Firstly, that is a 16 point swing. That's a big move. Secondly, unless a significant amount of those new WRP voters are in Calgary and Edmonton, they won't be forming government, let alone a majority.

Umm.. I'm pretty sure going from 34% of the popular vote 40% of the popular vote would be a 6 point swing. You're right that it would matter where those supporters were at. If they're Calgarians concerned about PC fiscal mismanagment, it's a WR majority. If they're people from south of Lethbridge who want AB to separate, the WR is screwed.

40% could easily be a majority, especially if the left manages to get their act together and takes some of the centre left vote away from the PCs.

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

The Feds forced everyone WEST of the Ottawa river to buy Alberta crude, and did so at a fixed price. For awhile that was higher than the world price, and later much lower. There were also export taxes placed on the product, which basically sucked the life out of the industry. Luckily the gov't moved that money to politically connected individuals drilling boondoggle wells. (Dome and Jack Gallagher)

I believe that was subsequently the largest bankruptcy in Canada up to that time, and it was basically based on smoke and ridiculous tax credits.

You are right, it was West, that was a typo on my part. It was higher than the world price for a long time, up and until the 1973 oil crisis. The Feds did that to help the Alberta oil industry get off the ground, which was basically struggling to have any production before the NOP. Again, when private investors pulled out of Syncrude, basically putting the project on life support, it was the Federal Liberals that came in and bailed it out. Those two parts of Alberta's energy history always seem to be forgotton by patriotic Albertans talking about how awful the Federal government and the Federal Liberals have been towards Alberta. Nobody ever talks about where the price of oil went in Alberta in 1985 when Mulroney changed the pricing policy. Any rudimentary analysis of Syncrude shows that the Federal government played a large large role in financing the operation to get company off the ground.

[GP_Matt]

I am finally getting caught up with non election related work and have slowly read through much of the comments and figured it was time to add a few of my own.
To start with, I have been involved in the Wildrose party for about three years now. I attended the initial meeting to setup a constituency association in my riding and grew my role within the party as it grew. Going back three or four years I was annoyed with what I saw as the PC party slowly moving to the left. From my perspective, the only competition that the PC party had was on the left so that was the direction of most of their criticism. They want to be the inclusive party so they started crafting policy to satisfy and quiet the criticism from the left. My thoughts at the time were that Alberta needed a strong opposition party on the right to make the public aware of the fiscal irresponsibility of many PC government decisions.

Of course we ran the campaign to win every seat, and many people, myself included, inside and outside the party began to believe the polls and come to envision a majority government being announced Monday night. Absolutely, I was disappointed with the results last night, we had some great candidates and friends who worked really hard and came up short. That said, I look forward to having the WRA sit in the official opposition seat. For the next four years we will have 17 great candidates watching over the PC government, working with them and hopefully successfully pressuring them to keep the spending under control.

I have some of the same fears as Captain about the direction of the next four years and know that if they come to pass than the WRA should have a cakewalk in the next election. But I am an Albertan first and foremost, I would rather have the PC's run a fiscally responsible term and a tougher fight on our hands in the next election.

On the election itself I think that 35% of the popular vote is a pretty great achievement. Additionally, there were several ridings where the WRA lost by a few hundred votes leaving the election very close. The weekend before the election I was at a professional organization meeting and almost all of the election talk was centered around Huntsberger and Leach. I agree with FL that they should have stepped down themselves rather than have the leader remove an individual who was properly elected by the local riding CA. Going forward, I will be attending our AGM in the fall and will be voting and speaking against any social conservative policy (as has been done successfully in the past).

Sorry if it is a bit ling winded, I have been thinking on my response for a while.