GDT: The Alberta Election 2012 - The Morning After - PC Majority Government

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

You mean like how Wildrose ejected Steven Carter a couple years ago for his own Twitter indescretions?

C'mon Slava, surely you understand the difference between dumping an office flunky off your staff and dumping a candidate a week ahead of the election. I'm not saying Smith was right in her response - clearly she was not - but lets not make Redford out as some kind of heroine for having the "courage" to force an easily replacable person out of their job.

It doesn't matter how it actually looks (firing a nobody versus a nominated candidate), its how its perceived. A member of the Redford team made a gaffe and was reprimanded for it. Members of the Smith team made gaffes and nothing happened. It makes one wonder (rightly or wrongly) about Danielle's strength as a leader.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

You mean like how Wildrose ejected Steven Carter a couple years ago for his own Twitter indescretions?

C'mon Slava, surely you understand the difference between dumping an office flunky off your staff and dumping a candidate a week ahead of the election. I'm not saying Smith was right in her response - clearly she was not - but lets not make Redford out as some kind of heroine for having the "courage" to force an easily replacable person out of their job.

I'm not calling those thing equal, its optics all the way. Frankly, the whole "why doesn't Danielle have kids?" wasn't a big deal. Its not insensitive to ask that question unless you already know the answer (and obviously it wasn't known judging by the response). My point is that the whole thing was nipped in the bud though, whereas Smith was dogged by this for a week longer than need be.

[North East Goon]

Smear politics is the only way to actually win an election, we can all pretend it isnt - but it is a well proven strategy.

[longsuffering]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Apologies if I missed it, but has First Lady posted since the results came in? Even if we are on different sides of the political spectrum, I enjoyed her posts and commentary throughout the campaign. I'd like to see her perspective on what was surely a disappointing night for her party.

Maybe First Lady should consider joining the PC Party. No offence intended, but she does seem to find herself on the losing side more often than not. Not that I'm suggesting she may be a bit of a jinx.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by North East Goon

Smear politics is the only way to actually win an election, we can all pretend it isnt - but it is a well proven strategy.

I would say in the last 10-12 years in Canada, it has certainly moved that way.

[North East Goon]

Originally Posted by Rathji

I would say in the last 10-12 years in Canada, it has certainly moved that way.

Well I shouldnt have said only way to win, but it's a huge part of running a succesful campaign.

[kn]

A couple of interesting things I heard on QR77:

* the PCs had internal polling on Sunday that showed them in majority territory; judging by the number of calls I received on Sunday and Monday, I'm guessing the WR had similar information

* the Wildrose spin is that the NDP/Lib vote is down 99k and it all went to the PCs so strategic voting worked

* Vitor Marciano commented that at one campaign stop, Danielle announced an ethical violation from a backbench PC MLA to which the media did not ask a single question, instead focusing on the two wingnuts. Back on the bus, when asked about why the media didn't ask questions, the response was "well, we all know they're crooked; my editor is more interested in you guys since you're poised to form government." Not one article was written about this "ethical violation" and apparently the WR was sitting on a few others that never saw the light of day. They decided to try and switch the focus back on their five main platform planks.

* Marciano concluded they lost because of Huntsperger-Leech.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by kn

A couple of interesting things I heard on QR77:

* the PCs had internal polling on Sunday that showed them in majority territory; judging by the number of calls I received on Sunday and Monday, I'm guessing the WR had similar information

* the Wildrose spin is that the NDP/Lib vote is down 99k and it all went to the PCs so strategic voting worked

* Vitor Marciano commented that at one campaign stop, Danielle announced an ethical violation from a backbench PC MLA to which the media did not ask a single question, instead focusing on the two wingnuts. Back on the bus, when asked about why the media didn't ask questions, the response was "well, we all know they're crooked; my editor is more interested in you guys since you're poised to form government." Not one article was written about this "ethical violation" and apparently the WR was sitting on a few others that never saw the light of day. They decided to try and switch the focus back on their five main platform planks.

* Marciano concluded they lost because of Huntsperger-Leech.

Here's what I don't get about this one. If the PCs became the "leftist" party the Wildrose made them out to be, perhaps then people gravitated to them and actually voted in support rather than a strategic vote against the Wildrose?

[DoNotCompute]

Here's what I don't get about this one. If the PCs became the "leftist" party the Wildrose made them out to be, perhaps then people gravitated to them and actually voted in support rather than a strategic vote against the Wildrose?

I feel the same way. It would seem to me that though the PC would gain votes from strategic voters on the left, I see it as simply balancing out the votes they lost to the Wildrose among true conservatives on the right. Really don't see it as being as significant.

We've more likely seen another example of the unreliable nature of advanced polling as well as the Wildrose shooting themselves in the foot over the last couple of weeks. I doubt that the Wildrose ever had as commanding of a lead, if any, as the polls indicated.

[longsuffering]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Here's what I don't get about this one. If the PCs became the "leftist" party the Wildrose made them out to be, perhaps then people gravitated to them and actually voted in support rather than a strategic vote against the Wildrose?

Don't you know that it is inconceivable that Albertans didn't vote for Wildrose because they didn't like their policies? Impossible!

The loss can only be blamed on fear-mongering by the PCs, or maybe the media, or maybe on just plain old dumb voters, but NEVER, EVER on WRP policy!

[troutman]

I'm sure it's been said before, but I imagine pollsters are missing data from younger people that aren't reached by conventional tactics. Younger people tend to be more progressive.

[Tinordi]

Climate Change Denial turning point in electoral defeat:

http://business.financialpost.com/20...__lsa=7d63dce5

She seemed to be on the defensive for the first three weeks but things shifted the last week of the campaign with the pro-Caucasian, anti-gay “bozo eruptions” from Wildrose candidates. Smith refused to condemn her candidates and tried to paint her party as the victim of intolerance. By doing so, she appeared to be the one tolerating intolerance. And then there was Smith’s own bozo eruption when she insisted the jury was still out on the science of human-induced climate change. That got her loudly booed from the audience at a leaders’ debate hosted by CBC.

That may have been the turning point, the moment when Albertans wondered with some alarm what it would be like to have a premier who would potentially embarrass the province on the world stage by denying global warming. It wasn’t just our reputation at stake but our economy that relies on exploiting, selling and shipping bitumen from the oilsands.

Redford seized on the moment, pointing out that the Wildrose was a step in the wrong direction.

“On Tuesday morning the world is going to be watching to see who the premier of Alberta is and what the future of Alberta is and I think that’s what this is coming down to,” argued Redford. “Which party is articulating a vision for the future of this province that truly reflects how Albertans are feeling about their future?”

The answer: the Progressive Conservatives.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by longsuffering

Don't you know that it is inconceivable that Albertans didn't vote for Wildrose because they didn't like their policies? Impossible!

The loss can only be blamed on fear-mongering by the PCs, or maybe the media, or maybe on just plain old dumb voters, but NEVER, EVER on WRP policy!

I have my doubts in the end that actual fiscal policies had that much to do with the results. WildRose was running free and clear after publishing thier platform intil the last few days, their support dwindled after the homophobia, racist anti-climate change focuse started.

Both platforms left a lot to be desired from an economic side, and I'd wager didn't reflect the interests of the average Albertan.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I have my doubts in the end that actual fiscal policies had that much to do with the results. WildRose was running free and clear after publishing thier platform intil the last few days, their support dwindled after the homophobia, racist anti-climate change focuse started.

Both platforms left a lot to be desired from an economic side, and I'd wager didn't reflect the interests of the average Albertan.

For sure.

[photon]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Personally I was hugely insulted by the Liberal and Conservative message that a vote for the Wildrose was basically a vote for Homophobia and racism.

Was that their message though? Or was that just the story that got lots of play in the media?

I don't recall hearing any comments directly from PCs about it at all, let alone an overall message.

But I did get most my news from this thread, so I could have easily missed it, a genuine question.

[NuclearPizzaMan]

Pollsters gain data from people willing to answer polls. Do people ever complete phone polls?

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by NuclearPizzaMan

Pollsters gain data from people willing to answer polls. Do people ever complete phone polls?

Only when you're offered five minutes of phone sex afterwards from a hot telemarketer. If she's not hot (or not a she at all), get them to put the closest hot chick on the phone.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by photon

Was that their message though? Or was that just the story that got lots of play in the media?

I don't recall hearing any comments directly from PCs about it at all, let alone an overall message.

But I did get most my news from this thread, so I could have easily missed it, a genuine question.

It was implied by both parties, I think. But they were happy to let the media run with it and pretend they didn't start the ball rolling. Redford's playing at being agast by Husperger's blog was designed to give exactly that impression.

That is also why I find the intolerance displayed by the left to be so hypocritical. They will paint anyone who doesn't agree with them as being bigots without realizing that they reveal their own bigotry in the process. Canadian politics is polarizing in a bad way, every bit as bad as American politics, and you can blame the harcore leftist supporters for that.

[Walter Reed]

I think the results suggest that this was not so much a vote in favour of Alberta's PC party but rather a vote against the Wildrose party. I'm aware of many people who had never voted PC provincially in the past but elected to do so this time to ensure the Wildrose failed to gain power. The new PC's appeared to be more centrist than the perceived extreme right wing Wildrose who were financed by Calgary's big oil mafia. The Wildrose's public mouth piece Dave Rutherford almost had a stroke being unable to stomach the results.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by troutman

I'm sure it's been said before, but I imagine pollsters are missing data from younger people that aren't reached by conventional tactics. Younger people tend to be more progressive.

I wasn't robocalled once or reached out to in anyway. I have my cellphone (and lack of landline) to thank for that. I'm guessing I'm not the only one who was in this situation.