The cupboards ARE bare

[Johnny Rotten]

Originally Posted by Reign of Fire

Thats what i was getting at, instead of drafting the gritty, defensive type players, take a chance on some skilled players

Exactly! What is safe about any 17/18 year old anyhow? Grit and character are great and necessary, but if they can't play in the NHL (Kris Chucko apparently and maybe Matt Pelech), how safe of a pick are they anyway?

[Bezer]

Well I am not gonna lie, after losing Erixon I have one foot off the ledge. I see some promise from a few of our prospects but I don't see that high end talent and that scares the crap out of me.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

If you read my post, I'm just putting it out there that the scouts haven't done a stellar job in the past 4 drafts as someone else stated.

Still sounds like your expectations are too high. Given our draft position (low) and the number of picks we've had (below the average of 7 per draft) the scouts seem to have done a pretty good job in the last few years.

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

Yes, they got it right with Backlund in '087 which I give them credit for but if you look over the past 4-7 drafts there have been more misses than hits.

The best drafting teams in the league have more misses than hits. If you had more hits than misses you'd probably be about twice as good as the best drafting teams in the league. If you look at the stats for picks working out it is probably less than 20%. Expecting even 50% success rate is way unrealistic.

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

Yes, not all 1st rounders work out but sometimes 3 and 4th rounders do, which has been few and far between with us and our scouts.

It is few and far between for even the best drafting teams in the league. Go check the percentages of 3rd and 4th round picks working out.

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

Nowhere do I say that I expect perfection from the scouting department - not sure where you are drawing this from. Don't mind being called out on my post and enjoy dialogue but as a friendly note, try not to be so condescending by telling me I need to lower my expectations.

I draw it from your analysis even though you don't say it explicitly. You expect things greater than the best drafting teams in the league achieve. Thus your expectations are unrealistic. I don't believe it is condescending to point this out, the statistics would support that your expectations are quite unrealistic.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

It would have been refreshing to say the least if the Flames would have gone against tradition and selected Kabanov, who has substantially more offensive talent than Reinhart. This is a kid who would play on your top 2 lines, and it would be a stretch to say the same about Reinhart, who may develop into a very good #3 center, player that we seem to be good at stocking up on (Wahl/Arnold/Nemisz could all develop into this type of player). This is where the Flames may need to take a progressive approach and hire a player development coach like the Canucks have to work with these prospects to help them along in their professional careers.

Nothing against Reinhart, I do hope that he develops and eventually contributes to the Flames. However, it would have been interesting to see the Flames select Kabanov with their 1st 3rd rounder and Reinhart with their 2nd 3rd rounder (presuming that Reinhart would still be avaialble). While we need hard working two way forwards and steady 5-6 defencemen, we also need top 6 forwards and top pairing defencemen. I believe the fan base would have no issues with the Flames occasionally (repeat, occasionally) swinging for the fences to get this type of player.

Wow, people still would rather have Kabanov? I find that surprising given Reinhart's good year and especially his dominant performance in the playoffs including the 5 goal game.

I don't think it is a stretch at all to predict Reinhart could be a top two line player. His development is looking quite promising and I don't see how Kabanov has him outclassed at all right now.

I don't really see Wahl as a 3rd liner either, he was drafted with top two line upside. You seem to be overly pessimistic on the offensive upside of the Flames prospects while overly optimistic on the guys we didn't take like Kabanov.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

It would have been refreshing to say the least if the Flames would have gone against tradition and selected Kabanov, who has substantially more offensive talent than Reinhart. This is a kid who would play on your top 2 lines, and it would be a stretch to say the same about Reinhart, who may develop into a very good #3 center, player that we seem to be good at stocking up on (Wahl/Arnold/Nemisz could all develop into this type of player). This is where the Flames may need to take a progressive approach and hire a player development coach like the Canucks have to work with these prospects to help them along in their professional careers.

Nothing against Reinhart, I do hope that he develops and eventually contributes to the Flames. However, it would have been interesting to see the Flames select Kabanov with their 1st 3rd rounder and Reinhart with their 2nd 3rd rounder (presuming that Reinhart would still be avaialble). While we need hard working two way forwards and steady 5-6 defencemen, we also need top 6 forwards and top pairing defencemen. I believe the fan base would have no issues with the Flames occasionally (repeat, occasionally) swinging for the fences to get this type of player.

Wow, people still would rather have Kabanov? I find that surprising given Reinhart's good year and especially his dominant performance in the playoffs including the 5 goal game.

I don't think it is a stretch at all to predict Reinhart could be a top two line player. His development is looking quite promising and I don't see how Kabanov has him outclassed at all right now.

I don't really see Wahl as a 3rd liner either, he was drafted with top two line upside.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

The scouting has been one issue, no doubt, but I wonder how much of it is also the fact that Sutter has traded away so many picks, seconds and thirds and so forth.

There's a bit of an optical illusion in there: you can always argue that trading away a pick for an established NHLer is good because there's only such and such chance that the pick will amount to anything, but the problem is that if you don't have those picks, you're guaranteed never to get any good young player for them. You get an NHLer (who may be gone in a couple of years), but you get zero chance of getting a good prospect. That accumulates as you keep trading away your picks.

It's about having enough picks just as much as it is about the scouting.

This is very true - you 'steal' from the future to benefit today. However, this is essentially what contenders do - or teams that are at least trying to be a contender.

Look at Philly. They are a team that most analysts were picking to win the cup this year - or at least be playing for it in the SCF. Very well built team - aside from their lack of a goalie. However, take a look at their prospect pool and trade history - most notably, how often they have traded their first away in the last 10 years.

Compare that to LA - a team that is seen 'on the rise'. Lombo there was taking heat for his insistence on 'staying the course' and not making a few gambles (picks/prospects) for high-end talent. Finally settled on the Penner trade (which in hindsight was terrible), but in essence that is what happens.

Most people considered the Flames a 'genuine' contender - especially after their acquisition of Jokinen the first time. We were a cap team that traded away some of our future for a chance to win today.

Hindsight tells us that we made wrong moves, but essentially that is what most contenders do - draft well, sing FA's and sell some of 'tomorrow' for a better chance to win today.

Thus, I feel a better comparison is how the Flames drafted vs. other teams that were selling off picks as well. Comparing it to Philly, it looks like we are far behind - Backlund (and up until last week - Erixon) vs JVR and Giroux.

The way I see it, teams with multiple picks have the 'luxury' of being able to select players that are very high risk/high reward types. When you have only a limited number of picks, there is more pressure to ensure some of them make it. I mean, there is definitely pressure on the rebuilding teams that have tons of picks to grab their next superstars, but they are somewhat more afforded the luxury in knowing that they can 'gamble' a bit more on the draft and select the Kabanovs who MIGHT become superstars, or might become Shirokovs or Zherdevs at best.

The one thing I really love about the Flames is that they went out and created their own farm team that they completely control. Their players are afforded the best position to develop properly now, so I also think that has a lot to do with it in the end. Selecting the best player is wonderful, but if you can't develop them properly, you end up turning that pick into a bust.

Some players like - like Chucko - appear to be complete busts however - regardless of how much you try and develop them. This is why I would love to really compare our drafts compared to other 'contenders' since the lockout and see where we rank.

I, for one, am just really glad that Sutter has expanded the scouting, helped to create the Heat for Calgary's player development, and that Feaster is 100% on board with realizing how important the work Sutter started has been to the organization.

Say what you will about Sutter, but his legacy isn't just the '04 run and a collapse. It has set in motion a new philosophy on the Flames with an importance on scouting and development. Hit or miss, he did start this whole process, and I think in time the Flames will benefit. Some of his trades and decisions, or his 'surly' manner.. over-hyped from the media often, but all most assuredly have some varying degrees of merit from 'completely false' to 'completely true', but the general direction where he started to take the Flames I think is the legacy I hope this team continues with.

[Henry Fool]

Well, whether you agree with Sutter's philosophy or not, on the question of the cupboards being bare - the "cupboards" meaning the number of prospects in the system with a chance to make it - the problem relates directly to the fact that the Flames haven't had enough of the picks that typically give you those "might make it" players. You have to take that into account before you blame the scouting.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

a lot of analysis of calgary's drafting strategy has been made over the course of the last few years...obviously, there is some luck involved in any draft...

but the notion of Calgary making the 'safe' pick has always kinda bothered me.

How many of those 'safe' picks have actually made it onto our roster? seems like there is an abundance of 'safe' guys floating around as UFAs, so why expend a draft pick on someone with a low ceiling?

i also don't buy the revisionists changing Sutter's drafting philosophy to start in 08: he was the GM since 2005. The drafting might have gotten better of late, but its hard to tell at this point.

Not sure how his drafting could be characterized as "safe". Phaneuf was a safe pick. Other than that it seems like we've taken a chance on some injured players (Pelech, Backlund), some Euro's (Backlund, Erixon), a player playing in a league that is hard to judge (Chucko - BCHL). Maybe Irving was somewhat of a safeish pick as well. But overall I don't think you can say that was the Flames philosophy, in fact Sutter took several risky players and several of them didn't pan out. I really disagree with the assessment that we tried to always take the safe pick, I think that doesn't characterize our drafts at all.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

You can partially judge the '07 drafts onwards. We have had some prospects from these drafts go unsigned and re-enter the draft both in '08/'09. If 2 out of your 7 picks (as is the case in '09) do not even warrant a contract offer, questions need to be raised.

Actually that is very typical for every team. It is much more strange to actually sign all of your picks. Most picks do not turn out so you wouldn't sign all of them.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

6th and 7th rounders I get, but 4ths and 5ths?

Go look at the probability of 4th and 5th's turning into impact NHLers. It is probably less than 5% chance. The vast majority of 4th and 5th rounders do not turn out. Go look at all the 4th and 5th rounders of the past decade if you don't believe me.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

The scouting has been one issue, no doubt, but I wonder how much of it is also the fact that Sutter has traded away so many picks, seconds and thirds and so forth.

There's a bit of an optical illusion in there: you can always argue that trading away a pick for an established NHLer is good because there's only such and such chance that the pick will amount to anything, but the problem is that if you don't have those picks, you're guaranteed never to get any good young player for them. You get an NHLer (who may be gone in a couple of years), but you get zero chance of getting a good prospect. That accumulates as you keep trading away your picks.

It's about having enough picks just as much as it is about the scouting.

This.

In another thread we compared success in drafting to having high amounts of picks and there is a very strong correlation.

The Flames have had both low draft position and a low number of picks. Can't expect to have the best prospects in the league with both of those factors.

[Gozer]

Another factor, I believe, is that many NHL teams are currently locked into very long term contracts with huge dollar numbers. Making a move for today (made yesterday) with an eye on the free agent market in three years isn't a bad idea.

[The Original FFIV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Wow, people still would rather have Kabanov? I find that surprising given Reinhart's good year and especially his dominant performance in the playoffs including the 5 goal game.

I don't think it is a stretch at all to predict Reinhart could be a top two line player. His development is looking quite promising and I don't see how Kabanov has him outclassed at all right now.

I don't really see Wahl as a 3rd liner either, he was drafted with top two line upside. You seem to be overly pessimistic on the offensive upside of the Flames prospects while overly optimistic on the guys we didn't take like Kabanov.

You must have misunderstood my post as I indicated it would have been nice to see the Flames select both Kabanov and Reinhart, not Kabanov over Reinhart. I wasn't a big fan of the Reinhart pick at the time, but I give our scouts credit with this pick and I hope he continues to develop as a player and progresses towards making the big club.

I do hope you're right on Wahl having 2nd line upside in the NHL, I know that we drafted him with top 6 upside, let's hope that he has a bounce back year.

[The Original FFIV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Actually that is very typical for every team. It is much more strange to actually sign all of your picks. Most picks do not turn out so you wouldn't sign all of them.

If you have the stats per team, please post as it would be interesting to see how we actually compare to the rest of the NHL.

[The Original FFIV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Go look at the probability of 4th and 5th's turning into impact NHLers. It is probably less than 5% chance. The vast majority of 4th and 5th rounders do not turn out. Go look at all the 4th and 5th rounders of the past decade if you don't believe me.

Don't recall saying every 4th or 5th rounder have to be an impact NHLer, but would be nice to see them in the system as legitimate prospects. Apart from Brodie/Aulie, we seem to have very little to show in the pipeline when compared to other teams that can find these diamonds in the rough. Did review the 4th/5th rounders in the 2009 draft specifically as this is when we picked Bjorklund/Bennett, and there are prospects/players there that are in their respective teams' farm systems. Would like to see more home grown talent on the club and I am hopeful that Feaster will focus on player development.