2011 Blue Jays Season Thread - Page 35 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Jiggy_12 · 06-01-2011, 01:37 PM

Bautista leads the majors in all star voting!

Oilbert · 06-01-2011, 05:33 PM

Send Drabek down.

browna · 06-01-2011, 06:09 PM

First Jays game this year I tune into from the start, and the beer league/sotfball mercy rule needs to be invoked...10-0 CLE and not done the 3rd yet.

Machiavelli · 06-01-2011, 06:15 PM

The Jays are a streaky ball club.

Machiavelli · 06-01-2011, 07:02 PM

Oh, and I miss Marcum even more now.

Oilbert · 06-01-2011, 10:44 PM

Mod edit:

nik- · 06-02-2011, 12:29 AM

please lets not poison this thread with that #### too.

Flames in 07 · 06-02-2011, 06:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Bautista thus far as a WAR of 4.9 (Wins above a replacement level player)

The next highest batter has a WAR of 3 (Howie Kendrick)

The highest pitcher is Halladay at 3.6

In terms of value, Bautista's WAR has provided about 22 million dollars in value. So if he didn't play another game this year, he'd still be a bargain by 7 million dollars.

The highest WAR in any single season of any player in MLB history was Babe Ruth who had a WAR of 15.4. Bautista is on pace to come extremely close to matching that.

For comparison, only 29 batters last year had a WAR over 4.9 (Bautista was 8th) and the highest was 8.7 (Josh Hamilton)

Bonds 73 HR season, he had a WAR of 12.9. Bautista is on pace to break that in September.

Good post but one error. He's not a 7 mil bargain if he didn't play another game. WAR assumes a full season. Not 50 games. So his WAR if he stopped playing right now I believe is 4.9 * (50/162).

JayP · 06-02-2011, 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

Good post but one error. He's not a 7 mil bargain if he didn't play another game. WAR assumes a full season. Not 50 games. So his WAR if he stopped playing right now I believe is 4.9 * (50/162).

Nope, WAR is definitely cumulative.

dustyanddaflames · 06-02-2011, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oilbert

Send Drabek down.

Not sure if serious....

This is a perfect opportunity for Drabek to get his feet wet with the big club, beings how there is no pressure for this ball club to compete this year - why not let Drabek take his lumps against the best hitters in the game. He has the arsenal to be a big league ace, but the guys mental make up needs some serious work.

Matty81 · 06-02-2011, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dustyanddaflames

Not sure if serious....

This is a perfect opportunity for Drabek to get his feet wet with the big club, beings how there is no pressure for this ball club to compete this year - why not let Drabek take his lumps against the best hitters in the game. He has the arsenal to be a big league ace, but the guys mental make up needs some serious work.

Agree, he is far from polished but he has pretty great stuff. I think that was his second real bad game of the year in 12 starts.

Hopefully Lawrie isn't pushed back too far with the injury. I think he is coming up to stay once he gets here and will make the rest of the season way more interesting with his all out style. Him and Lind in the lineup gives the team way more options strategically too.

I just hope when that time comes that Thames doesn't get sent down and Encarnacion gets the boot instead. Thames looks like a major league bat already, just consistently solid ABs and he didn't look horrible in left either. Will be interesting because they definitely have a choice to make there.

d_phaneuf · 06-02-2011, 02:35 PM

Blue Jays just had someone picked up off waivers, 1 spot open on the roster

who could it be....

Caged Great · 06-02-2011, 02:45 PM

Roenicke is off to Colorado

Lawrie up.

Oilbert · 06-02-2011, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dustyanddaflames

Not sure if serious....

This is a perfect opportunity for Drabek to get his feet wet with the big club, beings how there is no pressure for this ball club to compete this year - why not let Drabek take his lumps against the best hitters in the game. He has the arsenal to be a big league ace, but the guys mental make up needs some serious work.

He needs to work on his walks or he'll become Aj Burnett, Halladay early on in his career was sent back to the minors to work on his command, now he's the best player in the world.

Flames in 07 · 06-02-2011, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JayP

Nope, WAR is definitely cumulative.

Whoa. So they have won 10% of their games because they have Bautista in left instead of an avg starter?! That's insane.

JayP · 06-03-2011, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

Whoa. So they have won 10% of their games because they have Bautista in left instead of an avg starter?! That's insane.

Well, it's instead of a replacement level, waiver wire type player not an average starter. And the way it works is that a replacement level team would still win some games if it existed. I've heard people project it to be 1/3 (55 wins over a full season). At that rate, the Jays would project to be 19-37 right. At a record of 28-28 now, Bautista's 5.0ish WAR has directly accounted for more than half the 9 more wins they have compared to a hypothetical waiver wire team.

Quite simply, Bautista is the team.

Here's a good blog post on how much Bautista is carrying the Jays offense:
http://www.ghostrunneronfirst.com/20...er+on+First%29

The first graph is astounding. If you took a team of guys off the waiver wire (and they produced exactly like their projected numbers) and added Bautista to right field they'd have a better offense than the Jays this season...and the Jays have scored the 4th most runs in the MLB this season.

secol · 06-03-2011, 08:20 PM

http://watch.tsn.ca/featured/clip478978

flames_1987 · 06-04-2011, 07:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oilbert

He needs to work on his walks or he'll become Aj Burnett, Halladay early on in his career was sent back to the minors to work on his command, now he's the best player in the world.

Halladay had to go all the way down to A ball and completley revamp his game. Drabek is in his full year as a starter, and still has shown flashes of brilliance. No way he's going anywhere this year

flambers · 06-04-2011, 08:21 AM

Lind has been recalled, Thames was sent down

In other news Jays rookie catcher hit his first grand slam last night!!!

Matty81 · 06-04-2011, 11:08 AM

I am really disappointed that Thames got sent down. All he did was hit .290 with limited at bats and his OBP is .362.

I know they're carrying a ridiculous 8 man bullpen so they needed to keep McCoy up to have any sort of infield replacement but some of the roster moves the Jays make just make you scratch your head.

Guy hitting better than half the team finding himself in the minors sends all the wrong messages.