Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by flamesrule_kipper34

Haven't had a chance to read through the entire thread...but after getting a job I'm at least considering a change of venue closer to if not in, a condo perhaps. Are the prices ridiculously high now?

Depends where you're looking. Condo sales are still very slow, so there's a large amount of inventory and it's definitely a buyers market. I've helped a few clients get into condos recently at prices not seen in those particular buildings for 5-6 years. If the condo market picks up even a little, they will be sitting pretty with the prices they got.

As for inner city where I'm selling a new development, prices are much better on the condos in the pre-sale stage, since the completed buildings are still trying to recoup costs based on 2007 pricing & had much higher construction costs.

[Travis Munroe]

Inventory is not low right now. As mentioned above it is in large part due to the season.
Just about all of my business over the past couple months has been from first time home buyers and people inquiring on the best time to list.
If you are thinking about listing it is important to look at what is available around you. We will see inventory rise in the spring which can mean more competition for you as a seller. If your property is unique and different from anything else that may come available then listing in the spring is going to be your best bet. If you have a condo and there are similar units in your complex then I would suggest listing asap; you might have a tougher time selling once similar units come available.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by flamesrule_kipper34

Haven't had a chance to read through the entire thread...but after getting a job I'm at least considering a change of venue closer to if not in, a condo perhaps. Are the prices ridiculously high now?

I think it depends on what you're looking at. There are a lot of condos that are priced very high (new construction especially, but even lots of resales). When something comes on the market at a good price, it sells fast. I was involved in one (mentioned above) where there were 7 offers, and I didn't get it. And my offer was 15k above list.

[chemgear]

Mike F has his usual month end summary:

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...te-statistics/


Also, if you didn't already know, he added a neat page when you load the daily stats to view. He put together a spreadsheet that shows the listings that have sold in the last few days and their history over the last decade. So you can see how much money people have made (or how deep they've taken it from behind) when those particular listings were sold. Before listing and moving costs of course - and it won't show money sunk for renovations.

Interesting information.

[chemgear]

Hmmmm, so I know there was some discussion earlier about "why people could possibly want housing prices to go down/correct back to fundamentals - you must crazy/evil/insane."

Well, perhaps this is something that some individuals may not want their (tax) dollars going towards - or that efforts and fund could be directed to more needy sectors.

http://attainablehomescalgary.ca/

- Your household earns an annual income between $53,000 - $80,400;
- You can qualify for a mortgage and save a minimum downpayment of $2000;
- Your assets are not greater than $100,000.


Don't get me wrong, I'm all for charity and helping those in need but really? There has to be people more in need that could be helped (with affordable housing or for other things.)

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by chemgear

http://attainablehomescalgary.ca/

- Your household earns an annual income between $53,000 - $80,400;
- You can qualify for a mortgage and save a minimum downpayment of $2000;
- Your assets are not greater than $100,000.

Maybe I'm just plain bad at navigating the website, but there's lots of details missing like prices, who owns what piece of equity, and the like. On the surface it seems to me like a 'Made in Calgary' subprime situation.

Lending money and giving homes to people who only have to scrape together $2,000 seems like a bad idea. By definition these are people just below median household income in the city. The size and location of the condos would also imply housing standards that fit their income as well. Which begs the question as to what's so unaffordable about the current market that this is necessary. An income of $65,000 a year could easily buy a condo in the burbs at current prices, provided you can save roughly $25,000. And if you can't save a 10% downpayment, I, the Canadian government, and lending institutions would argue that you shouldn't own a home.

[chemgear]

Yeah, I'm also sure they have a substantial range in efforts not to exclude people/families outright. Just with the stuff we do at work fundraising drives to the United Way the YWCC, it just seems a bit out there to be forking out to people making that kind of money relatively speaking.

[Bill Bumface]

Is there anything so wrong about people who can't afford a house just renting?? This boggles the mind.

[billybob123]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

Is there anything so wrong about people who can't afford a house just renting?? This boggles the mind.

While I agree completely, it seems as though the "dream of home ownership" is what everyone is telling us that should pervade everyone's minds.

I think it's silly that everyone HAS to own. As Hulk and Cowboy suggest above, if one rents a reasonable house/apartment and puts away the 'extra' if they budget properly, they can easily amass a good downpayment if this "home ownership" is what they really need in their lives.

[chemgear]

Here is another article about how the high-end market is fairly disconnected from the rest of the market as per previous posts in this thread. It's really not a very good indicator of the rest of the market from the research that I've seen.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/07/real...dex.htm?hpt=T2

[chemgear]

Again, not much new - but at least they use actual stats rather than qualitative mumobjumbo token references about "oil prices" and "improving economy."

http://ottawa.ctv.ca/servlet/an/loca...hub=OttawaHome

I'm certainly looking forward to my "higher than historical norm" wage increase this year!

[V]

Where does it say that wage increases are expected to be higher than historical norm?

Also, what's Alberta's number at? I didn't see it listed in the article.

I don't claim to know what's coming, but I see a crazy year this year on the work front in Alberta, and I would have to think that's going to translate into house prices, whether it's justified or not. Fundamentals be damned, there's going to be a lot of money flowing this year and I expect people to get stupid again.

[Travis Munroe]

I think money will be flowing but I have to dis agree on people being stupid. I am seeing it right now and everyone I am working with is very conscience of what they spend despite banks approving them for more.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by fotze

I have never heard so much from headhunters. Talking to 5 separate companies. and I can certainly say its not because I am awesome. 'The market' does seem to be on overdrive.

Sidebar: Do you usually find yourself entertaining the offers seriously? I have to admit that I've stopped bothering most of the time now when I do get such calls - I'll take the usual 15-25% bump and call it good enough.

[V]

I think money will be flowing but I have to dis agree on people being stupid. I am seeing it right now and everyone I am working with is very conscience of what they spend despite banks approving them for more.

While I'm sure your anecdotal evidence could possibly override the overwhelming historical evidence that people get stupid when the money starts flowing, I will stick with my original prediction.

Maybe you're right, though, maybe people have finally learned their lesson.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by V

Maybe you're right, though, maybe people have finally learned their lesson.

No, that simply cannot be possible.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

I think money will be flowing but I have to dis agree on people being stupid. I am seeing it right now and everyone I am working with is very conscience of what they spend despite banks approving them for more.

That will be temporary though. People seem to have pretty short memories when it comes to what happens when you're affected by a recession.

[MickMcGeough]

I've gone back in this thread and read some to try to catch up but I'm still pretty new to this and not everything is making sense. I bought a 1000sqft condo in Bankview in April of 09 at what I thought was a pretty good price but after having it evaluated recently I've realized it's a bad year for condo sales and this thread seems to confirm that.

My fiance and I are interested in building a single attached garage home down in Cranston/New Brighton and the builders and their real estate agents have us freaking about rising oil prices and the new Seton area driving up new build prices over the next year. But financially it's not looking smart to sell our condo just yet.

I know nobody's got a crystal ball but are our fears of build prices increasing legitimate? Any signs that condo sales could pick up?

[Claeren]

If commodity prices surge in the short-medium term (which seems very possible, whether by demand or by inflation of the USD it is priced in) then it is possible.

But what no one around here seems to want to acknowledge is that a surge now could mean a full stall of any 'recovery' and a likely multi-decade depression.

It all gets pretty complicated, but the world will not pay $200/barrel for long before they simply change their usage habits and demand new technologies which are cheaper relative $200 oil than $50 oil, etc etc).

In the medium+ term I really don't think you will gain anything on your condo, or loss anything on the house. I guess the safest option if you neeed to act now is.... sell the condo (which is more likely to go down/stay same than it is to go up) to buy the house (which is marginally more likely to go up than the condo). In leveraged dollars, any scenario is better than going down...




Claeren.

[Bill Bumface]

If you're worried about oil prices the drive in from Cranston is going to start to look like an ugly option real fast.