Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Dan02

pfft if we ignore assets in determining debt mine was probably close to %1000

Holy smokes, hehe!

[chemgear]

Speaking of debts . . . interest rates:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...rticle1912901/

[WilsonFourTwo]

Hold up a second - I'm CLEARLY missing something here......

You're telling me that after people total up all their assets (home, car, investments, etc) and subtract their liabilities (mortgage, education loans, credit card/loc), the number is still SIX figures?

That number is so stunningly shocking that it simply can't be correct. It's like the opposite of "If it sounds too good to be true".

Edit: Whew - totally missed the ratio part, thank God. I thought it was saying that the average Canadian was $100k in the hole!

[Winsor_Pilates]

Another $300 Million deal for the East Village. This time FRAM development out of Ontario. Sales expected to start in the Fall.
I think the Bosa stuff may also start selling in the Fall; may have an update on that after the weekend.
Calgary Herald Story

RBC once again mentions Alberta as the most affordable market in Canada, and at a 6 year affordability high.
Calgary Herald Story

[Bill Bumface]

The only thing that bums me out about the East Villiage is it will probably stall the Bridges out for even longer. Although overall it's going to be awesome for the area. Any amenities that end up there are going to be great for Brideland, Inglewood and the Victoria Park area.

[chemgear]

Meh, I'll believe the East Village when it actually happens/is done. They've been saying that for years and years . . . and years.

February numbers are close to done. Calgary SFH sales are still pretty lame with this sales "surge" - barely better than the decade low of last year. Condo sales are actually going to be worse (wow really?) than 2010. Prices up a bit with the big push before the cut back in amortizations on March 18. Inventory higher for both versus 2010.

2.5 weeks left for the surge - interesting to see where it goes from there.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Meh, I'll believe the East Village when it actually happens/is done. They've been saying that for years and years . . . and years.

Well we did have to deal with that whole global recession thing. It will certainly take time, but I'm quite confident the East Village will become one of Calgary's best inner city communities.

February numbers are close to done. Calgary SFH sales are still pretty lame with this sales "surge" - barely better than the decade low of last year. Condo sales are actually going to be worse (wow really?) than 2010. Prices up a bit with the big push before the cut back in amortizations on March 18. Inventory higher for both versus 2010.

2.5 weeks left for the surge - interesting to see where it goes from there.

2010 overall was a decade low, but February was not. In fact, February and Spring of 2010 was fairly strong in Calgary, so better sales than that is pretty strong.
Condos, yes condos are brutal right now; there's way too much crap out there dragging down the numbers.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Well we did have to deal with that whole global recession thing. It will certainly take time, but I'm quite confident the East Village will become one of Calgary's best inner city communities.

I remember looking the Orange Lofts when they were going up in the East Village back in 2002. They were saying the same things back then - plenty before the recession.

You might be right about it becoming a better community at some point (perhaps 10-20 years later?) - like they said in 2002 as well. I guess it depends if you'd be interested in buying/living through that transformation, if it occurs however long it takes. Perhaps worth a gamble/investment if that's your thing.

[chemgear]

Here's a good article back in the day before the recession that summed up the (lack of) changes in the area. Like anything though, the potential is always there if you are willing to wait long enough.

http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/...38383c2&k=1241

When the first residents moved in to the Orange Lofts, it was heralded as a sign that the East Village was starting to rise from the ashes of the empty lots that lined the streets. But the neighbourhood's pulse is still faint, subdued by failed ventures and stalled visions that have left the lofts virtually standing alone as a supposed harbinger of the community's next generation.

"There's absolutely nothing happening development-wise," Corbett said.

Nimji points to development in adjacent neighbourhoods, particularly near the Stampede grounds, as a sign things might be turning a corner.
But just like everybody else, he'll believe it when he sees it. He's already seen the Orange Lofts open to little effect.

"When it was done in 2003, it was supposed to change that whole area," he said. "Truthfully, it hasn't."

[Tron_fdc]

Had a realtor tell me inventory is low right now, and prices are climbing. Tried to convince me to list my rental at a price 20k higher than what I was thinking 3 months ago.

Silly realtor. I just looked at my rental. It's trashed.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by chemgear

I remember looking the Orange Lofts when they were going up in the East Village back in 2002. They were saying the same things back then - plenty before the recession.

You might be right about it becoming a better community at some point (perhaps 10-20 years later?) - like they said in 2002 as well. I guess it depends if you'd be interested in buying/living through that transformation, if it occurs however long it takes. Perhaps worth a gamble/investment if that's your thing.

I hear what you're saying, but there's a big difference in one loft building and 2, $300 Million commitments from developers of this size. Also, the additional commitments that have been made by the city.

It will definitely take some time though, and the pricing on the new developments should be somewhat reflective of the fact it's "not there yet". I've seen a lot of areas in Vancouver go through the same sort of thing (Yaletown, Gastown, Main St.); so I guess I'm an optimist in great locations eventually turning around, and it is my thing.

[kevman]

Does anyone actually have experience living in (or near) the east village? What are the amenities like? Groceries, pubs, coffee shops, etc. Can't say I've spent much time in that area of the city...

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Meh, I'll believe the East Village when it actually happens/is done. They've been saying that for years and years . . . and years.

All of that is true, and there are lots of reasons why the East Village is a craphole right now.

On the other hand, it wasn't that many years ago that Victoria Park was mainly populated by crackhouses. Now the condos there go for $$.

The east village should be a great location, hopefully the new projects come through and the whole area turns out great.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

Had a realtor tell me inventory is low right now, and prices are climbing. Tried to convince me to list my rental at a price 20k higher than what I was thinking 3 months ago.

Silly realtor. I just looked at my rental. It's trashed.

To be fair, he's right . . . from a certain point of view. (Insert ghost Jedi joke here.)

Inventory is "low" because it's February versus say the summer. It's still higher than last year.

Prices have also been climbing since they announced the reduction in the amortization period - but that ends in 2.5 weeks. What happens then will be of greater interest.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Inventory is "low" because it's February versus say the summer. It's still higher than last year.

It also depends on the individual property quite a bit. Some properties that come on the market priced right are selling within days with multiple offers. (This has happened to me twice this week trying to purchase an investment property)

Other properties that are priced higher or have something wrong with them are sitting for months and getting re-listed. So the inventory number is skewed, as a lot of it is unsellable at its current price, but some properties never even make the numbers they sell so fast.

[fundmark19]

Buddies gf's parents had their house in lake bonavista on the market all last summer and fall pulled it in decemeber. Put it back on a week ago with the same price as before christmas had 3 offers in 3 days of being on the market. Not even enough time to have an open house. This is in the over a million category but maybe things are turning around?

[1stLand]

Originally Posted by fundmark19

Buddies gf's parents had their house in lake bonavista on the market all last summer and fall pulled it in decemeber. Put it back on a week ago with the same price as before christmas had 3 offers in 3 days of being on the market. Not even enough time to have an open house. This is in the over a million category but maybe things are turning around?

Things are turning around. Atleast for the time being......

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by fundmark19

This is in the over a million category but maybe things are turning around?

You wouldn't think 5 years on amortization would make a difference in the million+ segment of the market, so it shouldn't be because of the mortgage changes. Maybe the market is starting to turn.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

You wouldn't think 5 years on amortization would make a difference in the million+ segment of the market, so it shouldn't be because of the mortgage changes. Maybe the market is starting to turn.

I think it's been discussed in the past in the thread - but what happens in the high end market is relatively disconnected from the rest of the market:

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...et-conditions/

Looking at the daily stats, the overwhelming majority of sales have a price cut from their list price in order to complete the sale. Through all of 2010, only 5-10% actually managed to sell for the listed price or higher. The dailies in February this year look about the same, maybe a tad higher(?)

But really, February and most of March are going to be wonky stats wise until the mortgage stretchers are out - April will the be the first full month that will give a better indication going forward. Ironically, even then we'll still be propped up by 5 years over the long term historicals.

[flamesrule_kipper34]

Haven't had a chance to read through the entire thread...but after getting a job I'm at least considering a change of venue closer to if not in, a condo perhaps. Are the prices ridiculously high now?