Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[AFireInside]

Wow.. The mortgage situation is interesting, but I can't see it being a drastic change at once, they'll have to ease into I would think.

Also that letter and those websites just make it look like realtors are afraid of changing the rules. I don't think sending out a mass letter to all realtors makes Crea look good either.

I have a real problem with this line

"It risks causing a home price correction, a drop in the net worth of Canadian households, lowered economic growth and reduced tax revenues. Consumer confidence would be damaged, labour mobility would be impeded, and unemployment would stay elevated."

I don't know, makes it seem like they know prices are out of wack and want to keep it that why, which I understand of course....

I see a correction as a good thing, it becomes a good time for people to enter the market etc..

It's just funny to me, I don't feel like many realtors are economics experts so they really shouldn't be sending a letter unless they truly understand all the ramifications of changing the mortgage rules. Not just the effect on their industry.

Heck I have an economics degree and I don't feel like I know much! , but I skipped a lot sooo.....

[pepper24]

Originally Posted by chemgear

I guess this was put out a few days ago (missed it myself.) Was this sent around to all realtors?

That's brutal but not surprising coming from a realtor's association. Greasy if this isn't a fake.

[Winsor_Pilates]

It's real, I got the email yesterday. Not surprising from CREA though.

[chemgear]

Well to be fair, the CREA is an association of realtors – for realtors. I guess you can question their motivations or whether their lobbying is viable in the long/short term but they are in essence fulfilling their role and looking out for the interests of their members.

Anyhow, that aside here are the numbers so far in 2011 - again courtesy of Mike F.

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...estate-blog-2/

Should be interesting as sales numbers and inventory should be ramping up hard in the new few weeks.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Commercial Vacancy Dropping
Commercial Real Estate seems to be hitting it's stride. With the energy sector picking up, companies seem to be grabbing hold of good office locations quickly.

[pepper24]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Commercial Vacancy Dropping
Commercial Real Estate seems to be hitting it's stride. With the energy sector picking up, companies seem to be grabbing hold of good office locations quickly.

It's amazing how 8th Avenue Place which was built with no major tenants is now 75% leased. A ballsy move by the developers that appears to be paying off. Great building and great location. I think we're seeing the trend where companies with lower commerical rates are willing to pay up for newer buildings with newer amenities such as gyms, kitchens, better bathrooms, more environmentally viable etc. The older towers are going to have spend a lot of money to update to keep pace.

Toronto is seeing this as well where the top floor of their tallest tower (BMO tower - 76 floors I believe) is vacant because it's an outdated building lacking amenities.

[chemgear]

This has obvious implications well outside housing but there was some mention of it previously in the thread.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/10/26/downsized-dreams/

A what point can we grumble about the "lazy old people that crashed the housing market and forced tax rates way up?"

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by fotze

It means hide as much money from the government as you can because they will inevitably need more in the future.

Haha, we all better retire before 2031 . . . and move out of the country!

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by chemgear

A what point can we grumble about the "lazy old people that crashed the housing market and forced tax rates way up?"

I'm starting now!

[macker]

Originally Posted by fotze

At the same time, just as realtors are incented to say all is well in the real estate market, financial planners, banks, et al are just as incented to scare the hell out of people into giving them money to siphon fees from.

Michael Lewis?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by fotze

At the same time, just as realtors are incented to say all is well in the real estate market, financial planners, banks, et al are just as incented to scare the hell out of people into giving them money to siphon fees from.

I never understood this bias though; every business in every industry takes a cut somewhere along the line....that's capitalism. Am I missing something here?

Those damn oil companies take oil from underneath my province and sell it back to me. The siphon fees more than once!

[Slava]

Originally Posted by fotze

That is what they do, so thats why when they say how awesome oil and gas is and that governments should just allow everything to happen, you just have to take note of that bias. They certainly do siphon fees. If they are talking about royalties, there is some truths and a whole bunch of self interest, without a doubt.

and that siphon comment was meant to get a rise out of you.

I know, and I knew that I should just close the thread, but couldn't resist. Its OK though, I'm going to vote NDP next time so that oil is nationalized and we won't have to have the royalty argument any more, and you guys will all be working for the man!

[chemgear]

Not much in the way of new info, just some recent reports:

http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...831/story.html

Calgary home sales slump worse than national average: Canadian Real Estate Association 16% drop

http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...685/story.html

(Sidebar: CREB has a new president)

Many recent economic reports have painted a positive outlook for this year in Calgary. Do they point to a positive outlook for the housing market this year?

Answer: It's all positive. What we don't know is when it's going to turn around. So it's a matter of timing.

[chemgear]

Now this on the other hand, is new and of greater interest:


http://www.financialpost.com/persona...580/story.html

Sources say rules now being discussed would add 100% of condominium fees to the list of expenses that is measured against income to decide whether a buyer can afford a mortgage. Currently, only 50% of the fee is considered.

. . .

It is almost a guarantee that the government will once again lower the maximum length of amortizations for a mortgage, down to 30 years from 35.

. . .

Ottawa is also still considering a far more controversial proposal to increase the minimum downpayment required to buy a home but it is unlikely to go from the current 5% to 10%, as some have speculated. A 6% to 7% range seems more likely, said the source.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Sources say rules now being discussed would add 100% of condominium fees to the list of expenses that is measured against income to decide whether a buyer can afford a mortgage. Currently, only 50% of the fee is considered.

Would this apply only to loans insured by the CMHC, or to any loans made by chartered banks, I wonder?

[albertGQ]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Sources say rules now being discussed would add 100% of condominium fees to the list of expenses that is measured against income to decide whether a buyer can afford a mortgage. Currently, only 50% of the fee is considered.

I don't agree with this since most condo fees include some or most utilities. For regular homes, its not like the utilities are included in the debt servicing ratios for qualifying

[gottabekd]

Originally Posted by albertGQ

I don't agree with this since most condo fees include some or most utilities. For regular homes, its not like the utilities are included in the debt servicing ratios for qualifying

I'm pretty sure heating costs is part of the ratio. That would be the only utility, though.

[Travis Munroe]

Originally Posted by gottabekd

I'm pretty sure heating costs is part of the ratio. That would be the only utility, though.

You are correct

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/hoficl...lointo_004.cfm

[albertGQ]

Heat is included but its almost always a laughable low amount

$1M homes often have $50/month for a heating cost on mortgage applications

[macker]

Originally Posted by gottabekd

I'm pretty sure heating costs is part of the ratio. That would be the only utility, though.

PITH = principle, interest, taxes, heat + 1/2 condo fees....