Calgary Civic Election: Mayoralty Poll #4 - The Heat is On

[Swayze11]

I posted this in the fued thread as well:

Someone made a great comment in the Calgary Herald comments section online:

Let's compare Higgins' and Hawkesworth's main campaign platforms.

Renegotiate the ring road - Higgins Yes - Hawk - No

Remove $3 Park & Ride Fee - Higgins Yes - Hawk - No

Build airport tunnel - Higgins Yes - Hawk - No

Build SE LRT - Higgins - ? - Hawk - Yes

Municipal gov't experience - Higgins - No - Hawk - Yes

And now Hawkesworth suddenly feels that Higgins would make the best mayor of Calgary?

This either means that he has now come to realize that everything that he stood for was horse maure, or he has made some sort of a deal with Higgins for his support.

If you were going to vote for Hawkesworth, don't just blindly follow his 'advice' - reasearch the other candidates and make an informed decision.

Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Ha...#ixzz12GEoOj1w

This makes ZERO sense why he is endorsing Higgins. His personal fued's with McIvor and Nenshi are basically the only reason for his endorsement for Higgins.

This guy is a complete joke.

[Muta]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

I posted this in the fued thread as well:

Someone made a great comment in the Calgary Herald comments section online:

This makes ZERO sense why he is endorsing Higgins. His personal fued's with McIvor and Nenshi are basically the only reason for his endorsement for Higgins.

This guy is a complete joke.

Wow. I think someone should call him out on this. In the media, if possible.

[Byrns]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

I posted this in the fued thread as well:

Someone made a great comment in the Calgary Herald comments section online:

This makes ZERO sense why he is endorsing Higgins. His personal fued's with McIvor and Nenshi are basically the only reason for his endorsement for Higgins.

This guy is a complete joke.

feud

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

I'm sure she appreciates the 50 votes he brings...

I have no idea if his supporters follow his endorsement or not, but 5% of the vote at this point of the race is a massive help for Higgins.

From a distance this thing looks to my eye that Higgins and Nenshi split the vote and Mciver wins coming in between them.

[Resolute 14]

5% would be a game changer. But Hawkesworth was less than 2%, and as noted, the person he is endorsing has the complete opposite viewpoint on just about everything as he, so I don't see Higgins collecting that entire 1.9% of voters who supported Hawkesworth.

[firebug]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I have no idea if his supporters follow his endorsement or not, but 5% of the vote at this point of the race is a massive help for Higgins.

From a distance this thing looks to my eye that Higgins and Nenshi split the vote and Mciver wins coming in between them.

In a dead heat, Nenshi will win due to the high level of engagement amongst his supporters.

McIver has an experienced election team that should be able to get supporters out to the polling stations.

Higgins has name recognition.

My predictions:
40% Nenshi
31% McIver
22% Higgins
7% Everyone Else

My wife and I voted yesterday at the advance polls (+2 for Nenshi and Keating)

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by firebug

In a dead heat, Nenshi will win due to the high level of engagement amongst his supporters.

McIver has an experienced election team that should be able to get supporters out to the polling stations.

Higgins has name recognition.

My predictions:
40% Nenshi
31% McIver
22% Higgins
7% Everyone Else

My wife and I voted yesterday at the advance polls (+2 for Nenshi and Keating)

If Higgins is polling at 30+%, and was just endorsed by anther candidate, why would she drop 10 points from now until Tuesday? Serious question.

i dont think there is a chance that the seperation of the vote is that big....but then again i am just looking on from thousands of miles a way.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by transplant99

If Higgins is polling at 30+%, and was just endorsed by anther candidate, why would she drop 10 points from now until Tuesday? Serious question.

i dont think there is a chance that the sereration of the vote is that big....but then again i am just looking on from thousands of miles a way.

Agreed, nor is there a chance that the person who finishes first wins by 9%. Especially since the polls have never shown that type of delta.

Nor have they shown Nenshi with 40% support.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

5% would be a game changer. But Hawkesworth was less than 2%, and as noted, the person he is endorsing has the complete opposite viewpoint on just about everything as he, so I don't see Higgins collecting that entire 1.9% of voters who supported Hawkesworth.

Ahhh...i misread that he was at 5%. Eiether way, any votes he sends towards her should be a help, not a hurt...at least i would think.

i was reading this just a bit ago....is this an anomoly compared to other polls?

Nenshi has now rocketed to 30 per cent, tied with Higgins and just behind Ric McIver's 33 per cent support, according to a Leger Marketing survey of 500 Calgarians conducted between Oct. 6 and 11.

And this is why i believe that nenshi doesnt see the support at the ballot compared to the polling....

Nenshi's online strength translates to a solid 43 per cent backing among Calgarians aged 18 to 34. But that demographic is least likely to vote, meaning that getting out the vote for his campaign will prove vital in a race that's far too close to call, Young said.

Its always been like that at election time. Young people have the power to actually tip the scales, but rarely do they get out in enough numbers to make the difference they seek.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/He...907/story.html

[firebug]

Originally Posted by transplant99

If Higgins is polling at 30+%, and was just endorsed by anther candidate, why would she drop 10 points from now until Tuesday? Serious question.

i dont think there is a chance that the seperation of the vote is that big....but then again i am just looking on from thousands of miles a way.

Calling Bob a candidate is very flattering to him. I know he was running for office, but when your support is less than the margin of error for the survey you are not really a candidate.

Calgary election turnout is notoriously low. Even in the 2001 election when there was no incumbent running for mayor (similar to this race) turnout was less than 1/3 of eligible voters.

So, of the 500 respondents to this last survey, history suggests that ~165 will actually show up to the polls on election day and decide who wins. The candidate that can best get their supporters out to vote will win this election.

I spend a couple of hours several nights a week delivering election signs for the Nenshi campaign and have kept a close eye on what signs are actually on peoples lawns. Barb is so far behind McIver and Nenshi that it makes me think that she does not have enough supporters to do much more than answer her name in their livingroom when someone calls them on the phone.

[transplant99]

So i got curious and now just stumbled across this poll just released today...holy hannah what a complete difference from the herald results.

Higgins (37%) and McIver (34%) In A Statistical Tie; Nenshi (21%) the Only Other Contender

How can there be a discrepancy this large? Weird, but certainly interesting to watch it play out.

And again about the young voters following past trends

Looking at demographics, younger Calgarians (18-34 years) less likely to say they’re absolutely certain to vote (40%) compared to older Calgarians (68% for those 35+ years).

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/p...e.aspx?id=4991

[transplant99]

Calgary election turnout is notoriously low. Even in the 2001 election when there was no incumbent running for mayor (similar to this race) turnout was less than 1/3 of eligible voters.

Funny you say that just as i was posting the Ipsos poll...from that one.

Echoing reports of strong advanced voting numbers, the poll also shows that Calgary may see its highest voter turnout in years, with 58% of Calgarians indicating they are “absolutely certain to vote” next Monday. These results indicate that turnout will be much higher than the 33% recorded in the 2007 election.

Originally Posted by firebug

The candidate that can best get their supporters out to vote will win this election.

Agreed, which is why i believe that nenshi will have trouble.

[Kelekin]

Originally Posted by transplant99

So i got curious and now just stumbled across this poll just released today...holy hannah what a complete difference from the herald results.



How can there be a discrepancy this large? Weird, but certainly interesting to watch it play out.

And again about the young voters following past trends



http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/p...e.aspx?id=4991

First, the Ipsos Poll and Leger Polls were both taken during the same week, with the Ipsos poll finishing early last week and the Leger poll finishing at the endo f last week. So it's quite the discrepancy. But I would comment that the Ipsos one you linked to was released monday, and the Leger poll was released today (so you have them in reverse).

Either way, it's going to be a close race.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by transplant99

So i got curious and now just stumbled across this poll just released today...holy hannah what a complete difference from the herald results.



How can there be a discrepancy this large? Weird, but certainly interesting to watch it play out.

And again about the young voters following past trends



http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/p...e.aspx?id=4991

Ahem Bongs + dexter

[Ashartus]

Originally Posted by transplant99

So i got curious and now just stumbled across this poll just released today...holy hannah what a complete difference from the herald results.



How can there be a discrepancy this large? Weird, but certainly interesting to watch it play out.

And again about the young voters following past trends



http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/p...e.aspx?id=4991

The poll you quoted (released yesterday) was taken October 5-6. The new poll released today with Nenshi at 30% was taken October 6-11. Some of the discrepancy could be from the margin of error, but it also indicates that Nenshi's support increased over the last week.

[Bigtime]

This Saturday Nenshi will be on CityTV at 1pm for a TV 'Town Hall':

[firebug]

A bit of math behind my opinion...

Using the 33/30/30 split from the Leger survey would result in
McIver 165/500 voters
Nenshi 150/500
Higgins 150/500

I applied a follow-through (i.e. showing up to actually vote) metric of
McIver 40%
Nenshi 50%
Higgins 30%

Results:
Nenshi 75/186 voters (40%)
McIver 66/186 (35%)
Higgins 45/186 (24%)

This would result in 186/500 voters actually showing up (~37%) an number far higher than any election in the past decade.

Admittedly, my estimates for follow-through are completely biased, but reflect the level of participation I have witnessed in the electorate.

[Kelekin]

Originally Posted by firebug

A bit of math behind my opinion...

Using the 33/30/30 split from the Leger survey would result in
McIver 165/500 voters
Nenshi 150/500
Higgins 150/500

I applied a follow-through (i.e. showing up to actually vote) metric of
McIver 40%
Nenshi 50%
Higgins 30%

Results:
Nenshi 75/186 voters (40%)
McIver 66/186 (35%)
Higgins 45/186 (24%)

This would result in 186/500 voters actually showing up (~37%) an number far higher than any election in the past decade.

Admittedly, my estimates for follow-through are completely biased, but reflect the level of participation I have witnessed in the electorate.

I have a hard time believing what you have "witnessed" is anything more than bogus. If I went by that, I'd have an 80-10-10 for Nenshi. We aren't in people's lives and we shouldn't speculate to be, regardless of bias.

[mykalberta]

Originally Posted by Ashartus

The poll you quoted (released yesterday) was taken October 5-6. The new poll released today with Nenshi at 30% was taken October 6-11. Some of the discrepancy could be from the margin of error, but it also indicates that Nenshi's support increased over the last week.

Herald poll also shows N^2 at 30%

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/He...907/story.html

I personally take any poll with a grain of salt due to voter turnout numbers.
I dont think Hawkesworth support will help that much other than with his older voters - hopefully they are so old that when they see his name on the ballot they will vote for him even though he has dropped out.

[yads]

I meant to post this earlier, but when I was at the Russian Store I noticed a Barb Higgins poster in Russian. My sister then told me that a Russian Calgary blog has Higgins ads. (You may need to disable ad blocking to see it.)