Blue Jays offseason

[Caged Great]

Drabek, Wallace and that catcher are better than the 2 draft picks they would've got.

It sucks that Halladay is gone, but the Jays were between a rock and a hard place. If they put the 10 million they save from Halladay towards the draft in addition to the amount they would've normally spent (say 5 million) then they can fix the team's problems rather quick. Also having guys like Gonzalez, Bautista and Encarnacion (sp) as backup players beyond this year is a very good thing.

Assuming that Drabek d'Arnaud and Wallace take spots after this upcoming season, the jays fielders will be

C - d'Arnaud
1st - Wallace/Lind/Ruiz
2nd - Hill
SS - Gonzalez, or upgraded replacement after this year
3rd - Wallace/Encarnacion
LF - Lind/Bautista
C - Wells
RF - Snyder/Bautista
DH - Ruiz/Lind/Snyder/Wallace

Obviously, we could use another outfielder or two, preferably a CF and move VW over to Right.

The staff would be

Drabek
Romero
Marcum
and a bunch of players, that it really depends on who's doing good/who's healthy

With the amount of pitchers we have in the system, it's possible to convert a bunch to relievers if they aren't good enough to take starting spots.

[Berger]

Tommy John surgery has come a long way. Majority of players who get it now return to the same velocity and sometimes a higher velocity after the surgery.

As for the trade, glad we got drabek and wallace sounds like a great prospect. Only time will tell on who wins this trade but theres no question it had to be done. Best of luck to roy and im glad i can still cheer for him since hes not a yankee or red sock.

[Matty81]

I think JP Arencibia belongs on your list at C or maybe they move him to 1B. He's as good a prospect as d'Arnaud at least, weaker defensively and better with the stick, already reasonably proven at AAA.

David Cooper the 2008 first rounder is their closest 1B prospect and was decent at AA i think and could be there in 2011, really makes me wonder why they flipped Taylor for a corner infielder who isn't even good at 3B when 1B isn't really open down the road and they already have a blue chip catching prospect.

If it shakes down like it's looking the Jays are a long term SS and OF away from being really set in the field. I was liking the trade more until they moved Taylor for Wallace

[Fire]

It's too bad the Jays can't trade Wells for prospects. Vernon, why must you suck so much!!! I want a complete rebuild.

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by Fire

It's too bad the Jays can't trade Wells for prospects. Vernon, why must you suck so much!!! I want a complete rebuild.

It's not even solely how he plays, that contract is obscene. Even if he hits .280 30HR 100RBI they would have to pay a good chunk of it to move him.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Future

C - d'Arnaud
1st - Wallace/Lind/Ruiz
2nd - Hill
SS - Gonzalez, or upgraded replacement after this year
3rd - Wallace/Encarnacion
LF - Lind/Bautista
C - Wells
RF - Snyder/Bautista
DH - Ruiz/Lind/Snyder/Wallace

There is almost no way that d'Arnaud will be ready next year. Acencibia will be ready far before this guy... If he makes it to the majors. An A ball catcher is a pretty big long shot at this point, with the numbers he has put up. They aren't special.

[Caged Great]

both the guys in the C-spot are going to be decent. Really, it just depends on who does better at the MLB level. Arencibia is actually decent defensively, but has no plate patience. Each has their flaws. Hopefully between the two we get someone that's good behind the plate.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I guess we'll have to see how the three prospects work out for Toronto. Essentially they paid 6 million to get 2 more established prospects and a 3rd guy over the two picks they would have received in compensation for Halladay.

Isn't that the sad truth.

I'm amazed more teams in baseball don't try that strategy. There is an argument to be made that this guy is the best pitcher in MLB - so what does that tell you? And they got him for 2 guys who are a couple years ahead on the development curve + not a whole heck of a lot?

If I'm a baseball GM, I deal prospects out like Candy, for established players, soon to be entering free agency, if I know I'm going to get 2 first rounders out of them. I mean why the heck not? Essentially, you're just turning back the clock.

Again, this comes back to the point I think I've been making for 3+ years as a Jays fan. Pay the money for the best player available, regardless of agent, position or whatnot. It is always worth it in the end.

Rick Porcello would sure look good in a Jays Uniform. He was considered the #1 pitcher on draft day, but the Jays passed over him 2x! and Detroit took him because they gave him the signing bonus. He looks like a steal now.

[Matty81]

To me 2 prospects with an established AA or AAA history are worth way way more than 2 picks. The transition from College to the minors is way rougher than in other sports IMO. The Jays made about 7 picks in the first two rounds in 2007 and while none of them are written off, outside of Cecil and Arencibia there are 5 players who are likely not going to be above average Major Leaguers.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Matty81

To me 2 prospects with an established AA or AAA history are worth way way more than 2 picks. The transition from College to the minors is way rougher than in other sports IMO. The Jays made about 7 picks in the first two rounds in 2007 and while none of them are written off, outside of Cecil and Arencibia there are 5 players who are likely not going to be above average Major Leaguers.

But doesn't a lot of that have to do with the Ricciardi regime's strategy to pick guys who were more signable and pass over the guys who may make above slot monetary demands intentionally?

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

But doesn't a lot of that have to do with the Ricciardi regime's strategy to pick guys who were more signable and pass over the guys who may make above slot monetary demands intentionally?

For sure it's a factor in that jays draft being so bad but the MLB draft has the lowest % success rate by far even amongst top picks. In 1999 as an extreme example, 16 of the first 30 picks never even played 1 MLB game! In 2000 it was 14, in 2001, 11. It seems to average out to around 1/3 of top 30 picks not even getting a single MLB game.

No other big 4 league has such poor draft pick predictability. Couple that with the quality of picks you get for a FA - at best probably around 20 & 40. It's better than nothing I guess.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Matty81

For sure it's a factor in that jays draft being so bad but the MLB draft has the lowest % success rate by far even amongst top picks. In 1999 as an extreme example, 16 of the first 30 picks never even played 1 MLB game! In 2000 it was 14, in 2001, 11. It seems to average out to around 1/3 of top 30 picks not even getting a single MLB game.

No other big 4 league has such poor draft pick predictability. Couple that with the quality of picks you get for a FA - at best probably around 20 & 40. It's better than nothing I guess.

Top picks are only somewhat related to how good they are. A lot of teams go for signability with first round picks, hence why you'll see very different results.

However, one thing remains true, more money in the farm = better picks.

[CaramonLS]

Just a side note:

http://www.scoutingbook.com/players/p2537

The Jays were one of 15 teams to watch this guy work out today. Aroldis Chapman. Considered one of the best pitchers outside of Baseball today.

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

Just a side note:

http://www.scoutingbook.com/players/p2537

The Jays were one of 15 teams to watch this guy work out today. Aroldis Chapman. Considered one of the best pitchers outside of Baseball today.

Heard he was clocked at 102 mph somewhere along the line! Wonder how much he would take to sign and if the jays have any chance? I know lots of the big boys are interested.

[Jason14h]

If I'm a baseball GM, I deal prospects out like Candy, for established players, soon to be entering free agency, if I know I'm going to get 2 first rounders out of them. I mean why the heck not? Essentially, you're just turning back the clock.

This is what Oakland did back in the moneyball days. Now all teams have caught on. They talk about this exact stategy in the book!

[bluejays]

Two very different but interesting articles. I tend to side with Richard Griffins view from The Star. Basically Yahoo is saying that Philly isn't getting better, while The Star says that Toronto isn't getting enough. How anyone can say Philly isn't getting better by acquiring the best pitcher in baseball, along with some other solid prospects is beyond me. Surprising Griffin is so vocal considering many beat writers hardly criticize management in fears they won't get the next inside story, but Griffin is right this time.

TheStar.ca
Yahoo.com

[JayP]

Originally Posted by fleury

Two very different but interesting articles. I tend to side with Richard Griffins view from The Star. Basically Yahoo is saying that Philly isn't getting better, while The Star says that Toronto isn't getting enough. How anyone can say Philly isn't getting better by acquiring the best pitcher in baseball, along with some other solid prospects is beyond me. Surprising Griffin is so vocal considering many beat writers hardly criticize management in fears they won't get the next inside story, but Griffin is right this time.

TheStar.ca
Yahoo.com

Philly also gave up an elite pitcher and better prospects. Is the upgrade of Halladay over Lee worth the downgrade in prospects? It's hard to say, but I will say that Halladay can't do much more than Lee did for the Phillies last postseason.

Griffin's view is ridiculous. Apparently the Jays shouldn't trade Halladay for financial reasons unless "you have replacements from the farm or in trade". How do you replace one of the best pitchers in the league from the farm?

It's pretty obvious the Jays lose this trade in 2010. It's pretty short-sighted to think that having Halladay pitch for one year where the Jays are going to win 70 games is going to benefit the Jays in the long-term.

Griffin's analysis is brutal anyways (unsurprisingly if you've read the guy's stuff before). All he mentions about Drabek is that he's a year away from the MLB and had Tommy John surgery. I guess he forgot that Drabek was excellent after the surgery.

Chavez, Buck, and Castro have nothing to do with D'Arnaud so I don't even know why they're brought up. Apparently Griffin is still living in 2008 because both Jerolman (.646 OPS in 108 AA games) and Arcenibia (.728 OPS in 116 AAA games) had brutal years last season. They aren't so highly regarded anymore. Either way, both those guys are 4 and 3 years older than D'Arnaud so it's not like he's a comparison to either guy.

All he has to say about Wallace is this: "Wallace is a corner infielder with a potent bat. He's not a corner outfielder with good speed as Taylor".

Apparently OFers with speed are better value than IFers with a good bat. That's a new one.

[bluejays]

I somewhat agree, but Lee was going to walk. Moreso of a chance of that happening than the Jays. Halladay is also one of the most consistent pitchers in the game. All I'm saying, is that Griffin's opinion is much closer to what I agree because Philly are getting two solid prospects back plus $6M in salary. It's too much to get back which is the irritating part in this whole transaction.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by fleury

I somewhat agree, but Lee was going to walk. Moreso of a chance of that happening than the Jays. Halladay is also one of the most consistent pitchers in the game. All I'm saying, is that Griffin's opinion is much closer to what I agree because Philly are getting two solid prospects back plus $6M in salary. It's too much to get back which is the irritating part in this whole transaction.

Problem is Philly sent "solid prospects" to acquire Lee.... As for Halladay, they have upgraded but they already had a #1 pitcher before the trade was made.

In my opinion short term the winner of this trade is Seattle. Seattle did well acquiring a #1 pitcher. Without trading their top prospects.

Long term (~3 years) only time will tell if Jays or Phillies acquired an impact player (s).

Philly from a Roster perspective have upgraded but not a huge upgrade...

I agree the big factor is Halladay would sign... Lee could leave.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by fleury

I somewhat agree, but Lee was going to walk. Moreso of a chance of that happening than the Jays. Halladay is also one of the most consistent pitchers in the game. All I'm saying, is that Griffin's opinion is much closer to what I agree because Philly are getting two solid prospects back plus $6M in salary. It's too much to get back which is the irritating part in this whole transaction.

What Philly gets back is irrelevant to Jays fans (unless you're concerned about the cash).

It really wasn't a 3-way deal. It was just two seperate deals - TOR/PHI and PHI/SEA. So at the end of the day whether Philly got too many good prospects in return really shouldn't concern us as Jays fans. It concerns M's fans.