The Blue Jays: 2009 Season Thread

[flambers]

Originally Posted by moon

The Jays have only twice finished ahead of a division winner and both times there were teams in the American league that were ahead of them that also didn't make the play-offs.

I am not sure playing in the AL East is really hurting the Jays so much that they would raise their win total by 8-10 games necessary to make the play-offs.
.

For sure they would, for example look at last season... Jays have to play ~ 18 games against each of the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays which were three of the better teams in the American League.

Where as the other division play consistantly against very weak teams. It makes a huge difference.

[moon]

Originally Posted by flambers

For sure they would, for example look at last season... Jays have to play ~ 18 games against each of the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays which were three of the better teams in the American League.

Where as the other division play consistantly against very weak teams. It makes a huge difference.

Last year was the first year that the Rays were any good. Prior to that it was only the Red Sox and Yankees and in 2006 the Jays were one game better than the Sox so tough to think that they suffered a bunch of loses because of that powerhouse.

The Jays also finished behind 2 central teams a few years so it isn't exactly easy pickings in that division either.

There certainly are some NL divisions (i.e. the West) in which the Jays would have had a shot, but considering that they have consistently been out of it by a number of games and behind a number of teams in the AL it certainly hasn't been only the division that has held them back. They haven't had the top talent needed to make the play-offs.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by moon

Last year was the first year that the Rays were any good. Prior to that it was only the Red Sox and Yankees and in 2006 the Jays were one game better than the Sox so tough to think that they suffered a bunch of loses because of that powerhouse.

The Jays also finished behind 2 central teams a few years so it isn't exactly easy pickings in that division either.

There certainly are some NL divisions (i.e. the West) in which the Jays would have had a shot, but considering that they have consistently been out of it by a number of games and behind a number of teams in the AL it certainly hasn't been only the division that has held them back. They haven't had the top talent needed to make the play-offs.

However move one of the Central teams that finished ahead of the Jays into the AL East and the Jays into a different division.........I bet the Jays record would have been far better then their's.

[KTown]

Doc is the only reason this team still has a shot at a wildcard.
He's won basically a third of the teams games. 10-1 and he should be 12-1.

[JoseCuervo]

Is there a way to watch Jays games online for free?

[JayP]

Originally Posted by KTown

Doc is the only reason this team still has a shot at a wildcard.
He's won basically a third of the teams games. 10-1 and he should be 12-1.

Give me a break.

The team is 9th in the MLB in OBP, 6th in SLG, and 6th in OPS. They are easily a top 3 fielding team in the league. That has a bit of an impact on their good record.

I never understood this "should've been 12-1" crap. Are you taking back his opening day 7 IP, 5 ER 12-5 win back then? Every great pitcher in the league loses a lot of games they "should've" won. When you pitch excellent almost every time out there's a lot more opportunities to lose close games.

Roy Halladay is a great pitcher and the class of the league, but he goes through the same things every elite pitcher faces. If any pitcher should be complaining about "should've won" games it's Zach Grienke.

[Saint Troy]

The Jays are actually hanging in relatively well considering they are getting nothing from their 3-4 hitters. Halladay is awesome.

[KTown]

Originally Posted by JayP

Give me a break.

The team is 9th in the MLB in OBP, 6th in SLG, and 6th in OPS. They are easily a top 3 fielding team in the league. That has a bit of an impact on their good record.

I never understood this "should've been 12-1" crap. Are you taking back his opening day 7 IP, 5 ER 12-5 win back then? Every great pitcher in the league loses a lot of games they "should've" won. When you pitch excellent almost every time out there's a lot more opportunities to lose close games.

Roy Halladay is a great pitcher and the class of the league, but he goes through the same things every elite pitcher faces. If any pitcher should be complaining about "should've won" games it's Zach Grienke.

Tell me what position is this team in without Doc. They are hovering at least a few game below .500

Doc is the only reason this team has a shot, and if you don't think otherwise then you got big homer glasses on. Doc makes this team good, what is otherwise without Doc a average ball club.

[Sylvanfan]

Lyle Overbay deserves some props as he's been really hot here of late. He's had a very respectable OPS for most of the year but lately he's really ramped it up as his slugging is 583 and his on base is 404. After having had a few days off he has really been hitting the ball well.

Halladay is a great pitcher, but there are a other pitchers with better ERA's who don't have a 10-1 record. So although it's easy to look at the wins he didn't get, you can argue he's got a couple wins where his run support helped him out too. But you do have to admire how of all the other top pitchers in the AL over the last 5 seasons, Halladay is always among the top 3 pitchers whereas other Cy Young award winners haven't shown that consistancy.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by KTown

Tell me what position is this team in without Doc. They are hovering at least a few game below .500

Doc is the only reason this team has a shot, and if you don't think otherwise then you got big homer glasses on. Doc makes this team good, what is otherwise without Doc a average ball club.

Teams are worse off without their ace?

[JayP]

Originally Posted by KTown

Tell me what position is this team in without Doc. They are hovering at least a few game below .500

Doc is the only reason this team has a shot, and if you don't think otherwise then you got big homer glasses on. Doc makes this team good, what is otherwise without Doc a average ball club.

Take Pujols off the Cards...

Take Moreanu off the Twins...

It's an exercise in stupidity. It doesn't matter because those players are on those teams.

The Jays pay the guy big money to be an elite player. They get what they pay for. Why should the Jays feel guilty for building their team around having a bonifide ace?

And, yes, if the Jays didn't have Doc they likely would be a few games below .500. They're 5 games over right now so you're looking at an 8 game swing. That's about what stats like win shares would suggest (amount of wins that replacing a player with a replacement level player (ie; John McDonald for batters) would cost his team). But, of course, if Doc wasn't on the team there's a $15 million gap in the payroll and Burnett almost certainly is still on the team. If that's the case, you'd be very hard pressed to argue that the Jays would be below .500.

But still, I don't see how the Jays having an offense in the top quartile of the league and a defense that is easily in top 3 doesn't give this team a shot at winning.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Lyle Overbay deserves some props as he's been really hot here of late. He's had a very respectable OPS for most of the year but lately he's really ramped it up as his slugging is 583 and his on base is 404. After having had a few days off he has really been hitting the ball well.

Agree whole-heartedly.

Overbay's gone under the radar for most of the year with the break-out performances of Hill and Lind (along with the lackluster results from Wells and Rios). His OPS was above .800 even when he was struggling and is now approaching 1.000. A lot of that has to do with the platoon with Millar, but he's still producing when counted upon. The big thing with Overbay is that even when he was struggling and his batting average was low (dipping in the .230s), his OBP stayed above .350. That's the key difference between him and Wells/Rios and their inability to draw a walk.

Wells' OPS is now at .693. For comparison's sake, when Snider got sent down to AAA his OPS was down to .686. All this with the some of the worst fielding in the league (amongst any position). Fielding value metrics have him as the 2nd worst fielder in the league, slightly better than Adam freaking Dunn. Factoring both batting and fielding, his Wins Above Replacement is actually negative - meaning a waiver wire type CFer would've produced more than Wells has this season. Imagine where the Jays would be if they got even average production from Wells.

[Machiavelli]

Yup, Wells is a huge disappointment so far this season.

[KTown]

Originally Posted by nik-

Teams are worse off without their ace?

Your point is.........

[nik-]

That teams are worse off without their ace. I thought it was kind of obvious.

[KTown]

Originally Posted by JayP

Take Pujols off the Cards...

Take Moreanu off the Twins...

It's an exercise in stupidity. It doesn't matter because those players are on those teams.

The Jays pay the guy big money to be an elite player. They get what they pay for. Why should the Jays feel guilty for building their team around having a bonifide ace?

And, yes, if the Jays didn't have Doc they likely would be a few games below .500. They're 5 games over right now so you're looking at an 8 game swing. That's about what stats like win shares would suggest (amount of wins that replacing a player with a replacement level player (ie; John McDonald for batters) would cost his team). But, of course, if Doc wasn't on the team there's a $15 million gap in the payroll and Burnett almost certainly is still on the team. If that's the case, you'd be very hard pressed to argue that the Jays would be below .500.

But still, I don't see how the Jays having an offense in the top quartile of the league and a defense that is easily in top 3 doesn't give this team a shot at winning.

Doc is not making big money by mlb standards, so I have to take exception to that, they are getting an excellent value for him. AJ is a good pitcher but he has too many games where hes not good, doc rarely ever gets lit up. They better be willing to shell out Arod type money or this guy when his contract is up or he will be in a pin stripe uniform.

The offence is dropping look at the run production the last 18 games.
1,3,1,0,3,2,1,2,10,6,5,2,6,1,5,9,2,4 = 3.5Run Average. That is not good enough because they don't have 5 docs on this team. The pitching isn't as good as last year.

The offence better just hope they were in a funk and things are starting to turn around or this team will finish only 5 - 10 games above 500 and the playoffs will only have been a dream.

[Suave]

Originally Posted by KTown

Doc is not making big money by mlb standards

He is the 10th highest paid pitcher in MLB, so I would consider that big money. I would say he is adequately paid compared to his peers, especially since he signed his extension 3 years ago.

[Pagal4321]

Wow this thread has gone to the same pointless argument every sports team is subject to.
All teams are just average when you take away their best player. That's a given, that's why baseball, as well as hockey, football and soccer are referred to as team sports.

Great game by Doc yesterday, just a pleasure to see him work every 5 games. One has to be shocked that he hasn't played a playoff game in his career.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by KTown

Doc is not making big money by mlb standards, so I have to take exception to that, they are getting an excellent value for him. AJ is a good pitcher but he has too many games where hes not good, doc rarely ever gets lit up. They better be willing to shell out Arod type money or this guy when his contract is up or he will be in a pin stripe uniform.

The offence is dropping look at the run production the last 18 games.
1,3,1,0,3,2,1,2,10,6,5,2,6,1,5,9,2,4 = 3.5Run Average. That is not good enough because they don't have 5 docs on this team. The pitching isn't as good as last year.

The offence better just hope they were in a funk and things are starting to turn around or this team will finish only 5 - 10 games above 500 and the playoffs will only have been a dream.

Yes, the offense is in a bit of a funk, but I don't see how the last 18 games are more important than all the other 41 games the Jays have played. Wells isn't going to hit as painfully bad as he has the rest of the way and Rios will almost assuredly improve as well.

[flamesaresmokin]

Originally Posted by Machiavelli

Yup, Wells is a huge disappointment so far this season.

If wells fields even close to average, bats/gets on base even close to average you can probably chalk up another 2-3 wins for the jays thus far. By average I refer to him being in the bottom end of all starting centre fielders in the AL in terms of statistics. Talk about cashing your paycheck and not looking back. You could argue no player has hurt the team more considering his position and lack of production in the meat of the batting order.