U.S. Elections Prediction Thread

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

For those still keeping track, Missouri has been called for McCain, and Indiana for Obama. North Carolina may be a while.

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

1. Obama 54 McCain 45 Other 1

2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: Obama 379 McCain 159

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia--Obama
2. North Carolina--Obama
3. New Hampshire--Obama
4. Ohio--Obama
5. Indiana--Obama
6. Florida--Obama
7. Colorado--Obama
8. Nevada --Obama
9. New Mexico--Obama
10. Missouri--McCain
11. Wisconsin--Obama
12. Minnesota--Obama
13. Iowa--Obama
14. Pennsylvania--Obama
15. West Virginia--McCain

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that Obama takes Georgia

5. Predict which state will be subject to a recount or protracted legal battle
Well I think this thing is going to be over before it reaches this state, but I say Colorado based on a legal battle over voter registration

Not sure if we are adding this up by my total appears to be 15 points

1) 0 Points for the popular vote
2) 0 Points for the EC
3) 15/15 for 15 points for swing states
4) 0 points for wildcard

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

Not sure if we are adding this up by my total appears to be 15 points

1) 0 Points for the popular vote
2) 0 Points for the EC
3) 15/15 for 15 points for swing states
4) 0 points for wildcard

Technically N.C. hasn't been called yet, though it looks like it's going to Obama--so I guess we can start tallying.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I think we can officially say that 52-46 is the final popular vote margin, though. Huge victory. First Democrat since LBJ to get over 50%.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I think we can officially say that 52-46 is the final popular vote margin, though. Huge victory. First Democrat since LBJ to get over 50%.

Well, I think it's safe to say I was wrong about the polling being flawed. At a glance, it looks like they were fairly accurate. I'll let you make that call IFF.

I really thought the gap would be wider than this. I thought states like Georgia and Mississippi would be very close, and they weren't. Strange.

Hilarious that Hoot called me out for being upset because McCain was getting pounded.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Displaced Flames fan

Well, I think it's safe to say I was wrong about the polling being flawed. At a glance, it looks like they were fairly accurate. I'll let you make that call IFF.

I really thought the gap would be wider than this. I thought states like Georgia and Mississippi would be very close, and they weren't. Strange.

Hilarious that Hoot called me out for being upset because McCain was getting pounded.

Actually, I think that's one untold story of this election. For all the Obama supporters talking about the "cell phone effect" and the McCain supporters touting the "Bradley-Wilder" effect--the public polling was in the end astonishingly accurate. Obama's popular-vote margin is just over 6%--which is almost exactly the average margin in the daily trackers. In the state polls, it's a similar story--the polls were very, very accurate.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I should amend the pop. vote percentages. CNN now shows a margin of 53% to 46% with 98% reporting.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Also, North Carolina can I think now be called for Obama, though the news organizations are lagging a little in this case.

http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/1283680.html

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Actually, I think that's one untold story of this election. For all the Obama supporters talking about the "cell phone effect" and the McCain supporters touting the "Bradley-Wilder" effect--the public polling was in the end astonishingly accurate. Obama's popular-vote margin is just over 6%--which is almost exactly the average margin in the daily trackers. In the state polls, it's a similar story--the polls were very, very accurate.

+

Well, I brought up the Bradley effect because, being an old fart, I wasn't convinced the US wouldn't secretly vote along a racist line, not because I wasn't an Obama supporter. I was thinking that Obama needed a 7 point lead in the polls to eke out the win.

Very glad I was wrong and it's a great unifying win for the USA.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

1. Obama 51.8% McCain 46.5
2. Obama 336 McCain 202
3. Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina - McCain
Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, Indiana, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Pennsylvania - Obama
4. My Wild Card pick is Georgia to Obama
5. Ohio

1. Nope
2. Nope
3. Nope, Yep, Nope
Obama - Yep, Yep, Yep, Yep, Yep, Yep, Yep, Nope, Yep, Yep, Yep
4. Nope
5. Nope

Total 12 points. yep, nope.

[Bagor]

Originally Posted by Bagor

1. (5 points) I predict that the total popular vote share will be: McCain 44, Obama 54.

2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: McCain 171, Obama 367.

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia--Obama
2. North Carolina--Obama
3. New Hampshire--Obama
4. Ohio--Obama
5. Indiana--McCain
6. Florida--Obama
7. Colorado--Obama
8. Nevada --Obama
9. New Mexico--Obama
10. Missouri--Obama
11. Wisconsin--Obama
12. Minnesota--Obama
13. Iowa--Obama
14. Pennsylvania--Obama
15. West Virginia--McCain

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that Montana will go to Obama (15 points)


5. Predict which state will be subject to a recount or protracted legal battle
Missouri

1. No
2. No
3. Y,Y,Y,Y,N,Y,Y,Y,Y,N,Y,Y,Y,Y,Y
4. N
5. N

Total: 13

[HOZ]

Originally Posted by HOZ

1. Obama 48.6 to McCain 46.7
2. 538 seats I believe. 284 to Obama. 254 for McCain
3.
Obama - New Hamshire, Indiana, Florida, Missouri, , Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania
McCain - Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin
4. Wisconsin to McCain
5. Ohio

1. No
2. No
3. Yes, yes,yes,y,n,y,y,y,y,n,y,n,n,n,n,n
4. no
5.not yet

9 points

[Weiser Wonder]

Originally Posted by Weiser Wonder

1. 53 Obama, 46 McCain Nailed it!

2. 348 Obama - 190 McCain Close.

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia - Obama (Yes)
2. North Carolina - McCain (No)
3. New Hampshire - Obama (Yes)
4. Ohio - Obama (Yes)
5. Indiana - McCain (No)
6. Florida - Obama (Yes)
7. Colorado - Obama (Yes)
8. Nevada - Obama (Yes)
9. New Mexico - Obama (Yes)
10. Missouri - McCain (Yes)
11. Wisconsin - Obama (Yes)
12. Minnesota - Obama (Yes)
13. Iowa - Obama (Yes)
14. Pennsylvania - Obama (Yes)
15. West Virginia - McCain (Yes)



4. My "Wild Card" pick is that Arizona will go to Obama. No.

5. Missouri (Not sure, CNN hasn't called it yet)

5 + 13 = 18. So far. Not sure how IFF will award points in the end for electoral college.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Weiser Wonder

5 + 13 = 18. So far. Not sure how IFF will award points in the end for electoral college.

If no-one gets the exact number, we may give it to the closest person. Haven't decided.

Hey, it's not like there's money on the line, right?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Here's my tally:

1. (5 points) I predict that the total popular vote share will be: McCain 49, Obama 51. WRONG!
2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: McCain 253, Obama 285. WRONG!
3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia--Obama--1
2. North Carolina--McCain--WRONG!
3. New Hampshire--McCain--WRONG!
4. Ohio--McCain--WRONG!
5. Indiana--McCain--WRONG!
6. Florida--McCain--WRONG!
7. Colorado--Obama--1
8. Nevada --McCain--WRONG!
9. New Mexico--Obama--1
10. Missouri--McCain--1
11. Wisconsin--Obama--1
12. Minnesota--Obama--1
13. Iowa--Obama--1
14. Pennsylvania--Obama--1
15. West Virginia--McCain--1
4. My "Wild Card" pick is that North Dakota will go to Obama (15 points)
WRONG!
5. Predict which state will be subject to a recount or protracted legal battle
Indiana--Nope--but a decent guess considering the margin. Nobody wins on this one, I guess.

Final results: 9 points.

I suck.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

1. EddyBeers: 15 points.
2. Bagor: 13 points
3. HOZ: 9 points
4. Iowa_Flames_Fan: 9 points
5. Weiser Wonder: 18 points!


So far Weiser's the winnar. Can anybody beat 18?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Here's an unexpected wrinkle: it appears Obama will get one more electoral vote, from the 2nd district of Nebraska.

Didn't see that coming. It wasn't really on our radar, so my suggestion is we pretend it never happened. Everyone on board?
http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_pag...u_sid=10480262

[driveway]

Originally Posted by driveway

1. Obama 53 McCain 45 Other 2

2. Obama 375 McCain 162

3. Obama wins: Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Indiana, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Pennsylvania

McCain wins: North Carolina, West Virgina

4. Wild Card: Georgia goes to Obama

5. Colorado

1. No. Though I came close with Obama sitting at 52.5
2. If Missouri gets declared for Obama, yes - if not, no.
3. Y, Y, Y, Y, Y, Y, Y, Y, U, Y, Y, Y, Y, N, Y
4. N
5. N

13 points... with the possibility of 14 and nailing the Electoral College.

Come on Mizzurrah!

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

1. EddyBeers: 12 points.
2. Bagor: 13 points
3. HOZ: 9 points
4. Iowa_Flames_Fan: 9 points
5. Weiser Wonder: 18 points!


So far Weiser's the winnar. Can anybody beat 18?

IFF, the great EddyBeers received 15 points, he nailed every swing state

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

IFF, the great EddyBeers received 15 points, he nailed every swing state

My bad. Tell the great EddyBeers it's fixed.