40th Canadian Federal Election - Welcome to another Conservative Minority (whee!)

[old-fart]

The Libs are now faced with running another costly leadership race when a good number of the candidates from the last one haven't yet paid off their debt. The party is in debt due to the election and their inability to raise funds from the grassroots, and will now be forced into more debt to hold the convention. Rae and Iggy are sure to both run again for the leadership, and are sure to fracture the party further.

In the meantime, nobody in the Libs will be in any hurry to force another election when they don't have a leader, have no defined policies, and have no money. Harper can govern as if he has a majority for another year, at least.

And then, at some point in the future, the Libs will be forced to explain to the populace why they "let the Conservatives continue when they now claim they were so evil" yet again - and will have to run an election with limited money, and a fractured party.

The only thing keeping them alive is the Liberal brand, which remains strong in TO, Montreal, and Atlantic Canada.

[CaptainCrunch]

I think its irrelevant that parties are in debt.

I was reading last night that the Greens spent $54 million on this election campaign while garnering about $1.6 million from vote dollers, and they hope to pay a million back this year. We've been hearing that the Liberal's are massively in debt, yet they ran what looks like a far more expensive campaign then the Greens, but they still spent that money, and they'll run a lavish leadership campaign as well.

Debt doesn't stop the parties from spending.

Does anyone think that bad debt writeoffs will become the campaign contribution of the future?

[old-fart]

Originally Posted by Traditional_Ale

Political parties are not like hockey teams. We need the crappy hockey teams for an easy two-points. Crappy political parties are good for nothing.

The sooner the Liberal party dies out the sooner the Green Party can takes its place. I'm happy they get more and more votes each time around. Hopefully by the time they can make a run for some real seats they have a platform that doesn't have the cost of a loaf of bread tripling over-night.

I'll never vote Liberal again after all the money the Cretien and Martin gov'ts stole and wasted. They're a bunch of lying thieves. And the NDP lives a perpetual pipe dream (even more than the Greens!) of social programs for everything up to wiping your ass with no plan to sustain them.

The Conservatives may hate art, but they love money. And it would seem in today's economic conditions, I'd rather have money oriented people in charge instead of flower power.

The Greens and the Federal NDP have had a couple of longtime advantages when it comes to campaigning... they both know (and knew) there was exactly zero chance of them ever having to form government. In that situation, you can be comfortable in knowing you can promise the moon, and never have to deliver. You don't really need to worry about ensuring you have your entire plan costed reasonably. Who cares when you absolutely, positively KNOW you won't have to worry about actually implementing anything. Promise a turkey in every pot, a house for every person, a job for everyone who wants one, and generous welfare for those that don't. All why reducing taxes on the poor middle class, and sticking it to the evil business. Oh, and we'll clean up the environment with our magic swiffer too.

[ok, ok,....I get it]

Originally Posted by Traditional_Ale

The Conservatives may hate art

Really, Hate art? What is art and popular culture, it is something that should be sanctioned by the state or is it something that is organic and shouldbe supported by the populace...

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Traditional_Ale

Political parties are not like hockey teams. We need the crappy hockey teams for an easy two-points. Crappy political parties are good for nothing.

The sooner the Liberal party dies out the sooner the Green Party can takes its place. I'm happy they get more and more votes each time around. Hopefully by the time they can make a run for some real seats they have a platform that doesn't have the cost of a loaf of bread tripling over-night.

I'll never vote Liberal again after all the money the Cretien and Martin gov'ts stole and wasted. They're a bunch of lying thieves. And the NDP lives a perpetual pipe dream (even more than the Greens!) of social programs for everything up to wiping your ass with no plan to sustain them.

The Conservatives may hate art, but they love money. And it would seem in today's economic conditions, I'd rather have money oriented people in charge instead of flower power.

When they made their budget cuts, didn't they actually increase arts funding?

I doubt that the Conservatives hate art, many of them probably own a fine redition of Dogs playing poker on black velvet, however in terms of priorities, they might be more pragmatic and put the economy and several other issues over arts spending.

[old-fart]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I think its irrelevant that parties are in debt.

I was reading last night that the Greens spent $54 million on this election campaign while garnering about $1.6 million from vote dollers, and they hope to pay a million back this year. We've been hearing that the Liberal's are massively in debt, yet they ran what looks like a far more expensive campaign then the Greens, but they still spent that money, and they'll run a lavish leadership campaign as well.

Debt doesn't stop the parties from spending.

Does anyone think that bad debt writeoffs will become the campaign contribution of the future?

The maximum a federal party can spend on the election is $18M. The maximum each individual candidate can spend is somewhere in the neighborhood of $80K. Even if you assume each candidate spent the maximum (and I can guarantee you that is not the case), the absolute most the Greens, in their entirety, could spend would be around $43M.

I'd expect most green candidates spent considerably less than the $80K allowed, and I'd be shocked if the national campaign spent anywhere near $18M. I didn't see a single advertisement for them, or hear one on the radio. They didn't rent a plane (a major expense). It didn't appear that they had an advertising firm, nor a PR firm working with them.

Are you sure you didn't miss a decimal point? $5.4M maybe?

In any event, yes... parties have shown that they are comfortable racking up the debt. However, they are just businesses. They do get their money from banks, that do charge interest on those loans. At some point, the banks are going to either jack up the rates to a significant level, or just say no because the risk is too great.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by old-fart

The maximum a federal party can spend on the election is $18M. The maximum each individual candidate can spend is somewhere in the neighborhood of $80K. Even if you assume each candidate spent the maximum (and I can guarantee you that is not the case), the absolute most the Greens, in their entirety, could spend would be around $43M.

I'd expect most green candidates spent considerably less than the $80K allowed, and I'd be shocked if the national campaign spent anywhere near $18M. I didn't see a single advertisement for them, or hear one on the radio. They didn't rent a plane (a major expense). It didn't appear that they had an advertising firm, nor a PR firm working with them.

Are you sure you didn't miss a decimal point? $5.4M maybe?


In any event, yes... parties have shown that they are comfortable racking up the debt. However, they are just businesses. They do get their money from banks, that do charge interest on those loans. At some point, the banks are going to either jack up the rates to a significant level, or just say no because the risk is too great.

could have missed a decimal point, but the article was on Canada.com where May was begging for donations. I remember being shocked because 54 million was an unuasually high number, far beyond the spending limits.

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

could have missed a decimal point, but the article was on Canada.com where May was begging for donations. I remember being shocked because 54 million was an unuasually high number, far beyond the spending limits.

Yeah Captain I think something must be amiss there with your numbers. I remember seeing a piece on the news about Elizabeth May campaigning; unlike the other leaders she had to do it by train (Via Rail) because they couldn't afford otherwise and it was an environmentally better way or something. So she effectively only campaigned nationally at the places that the train stopped at, at least according to what I saw.

[mrdeeds]

Apparently Dion will not make an announcment today, but it is all but done now. I concurr with Jiri, though I would argue internal divisions in the party will continue to erode the Liberal party. Wrong man, wrong time. I do not hold a lot of hope for a leader who will unite the Liberals and reinvigorate the party.

[Resolute 14]

Dion was toast the second the results came in, so no surprise there.

I think the Liberal party can unite, but they need a good leader. Is Ignatief or Ray the person?

King Trudeau II would be hilarious if not for the threat to national unity it would pose.

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by mrdeeds

I do not hold a lot of hope for a leader who will unite the Liberals and reinvigorate the party.

I just heard on the news that a ignatieff or rae supporter, can't remember which, is rumoured to have said that something along the lines of if "frank mckenna would run, he wouldn't have to worry about organizing things because a significant portion of the party would organize around him".

Edit: ok I was sort of right in what I heard, but looks like it was from earlier in the year:

http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=883087

Mr. McKenna's candidacy is viewed by many as an option for those seeking party unity, and would likely receive backing from many Rae and Ignatieff supporters. Former Ontario premier David Peterson, who supported Mr. Ignatieff in the 2006 leadership race, said earlier this year that if Mr. McKenna wanted to reenter public life, he would not have to organize because "a massive organization would organize itself."

I've also heard rumblings that John Manley may throw his hat into the ring.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Dion was toast the second the results came in, so no surprise there.

I think the Liberal party can unite, but they need a good leader. Is Ignatief or Ray the person?

King Trudeau II would be hilarious if not for the threat to national unity it would pose.

The sad thing is plenty of liberals are already clammouring for Justin Trudeau. I don't mind Ignatief but Rae is an NDP'er dressed in red.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by mrdeeds

Apparently Dion will not make an announcment today, but it is all but done now. I concurr with Jiri, though I would argue internal divisions in the party will continue to erode the Liberal party. Wrong man, wrong time. I do not hold a lot of hope for a leader who will unite the Liberals and reinvigorate the party.

Frank McKenna and Brian Tobin would both be strong, experienced leaders who would unite the party, but they took a pass last time. Hopefully one of them will step up after Dion's disastrous showing.

Bob Rae would be extremely divisive and would likely cost the party a lot of their moderate "Blue Liberal" supporters (me being one). OTOH, he would siphon away votes from the NDP, so it's a gamble some in the party might be willing to take.

Ignatieff might be ok, but like Dion, he comes from the world of academia rather than politics and may not know how to run an effective campaign.

[Resolute 14]

The thing about Rae, McKenna and Tobin is that they aren't Quebecers, so far as I know. Is Ignatief?

As we all know, if you want to lead the Liberals, you gotta be from Quebec.

[MarchHare]

I just heard on the news that a ignatieff or rae supporter, can't remember which, is rumoured to have said that something along the lines of if "frank mckenna would run, he wouldn't have to worry about organizing things because a significant portion of the party would organize around him".

Edit: ok I was sort of right in what I heard, but looks like it was from earlier in the year:

http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=883087

Mr. McKenna's candidacy is viewed by many as an option for those seeking party unity, and would likely receive backing from many Rae and Ignatieff supporters. Former Ontario premier David Peterson, who supported Mr. Ignatieff in the 2006 leadership race, said earlier this year that if Mr. McKenna wanted to reenter public life, he would not have to organize because "a massive organization would organize itself."

I volunteered for McKenna's last campaign in New Brunswick in 1995 even though I was still too young to vote at the time. If he was to announce his candidacy for the Liberal leadership, I'd call my local party office that very day to volunteer for him again.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The thing about Rae, McKenna and Tobin is that they aren't Quebecers, so far as I know. Is Ignatief?

As we all know, if you want to lead the Liberals, you gotta be from Quebec.

McKenna is from bi-lingual New Brunswick and speaks perfect French. He wouldn't have any trouble winning over voters from la belle province.

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

I volunteered for McKenna's last campaign in New Brunswick in 1995 even though I was still too young to vote at the time. If he was to announce his candidacy for the Liberal leadership, I'd call my local party office that very day to volunteer for him again.

That is also the gist I got from the radio call-in show I was listening to. Also talk that all of the parties and leaders, from left to right, "liked him". Unbridled support for his candidacy came across quite strongly - something like 85% of calls.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by RedHot25

That is also the gist I got from the radio call-in show I was listening to. Also talk that all of the parties and leaders, from left to right, "liked him". Unbridled support for his candidacy came across quite strongly - something like 85% of calls.

He's also extremely charismatic, something we haven't seen from any of our federal party leaders since Lucien Bouchard.

The first time I heard McKenna speak was when I was a typical politically-apathetic teenager. By the end of his speech, he had inspired me to get involved in politics and volunteer for his campaign. He's not unlike Barack Obama in that respect.

Not that voters in Alberta would ever vote for him over the CPC, but he would also appeal greatly to Western fiscal conservatives. He's very much pro-business and pro-economic development. As premier of New Brunswick, he was extremely fiscally responsible, slashed government spending, and balanced the province's budget for the first time in decades.

[Traditional_Ale]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

When they made their budget cuts, didn't they actually increase arts funding?

I doubt that the Conservatives hate art, many of them probably own a fine redition of Dogs playing poker on black velvet, however in terms of priorities, they might be more pragmatic and put the economy and several other issues over arts spending.

Sorry about the hyperbole, I should have used green text when posting that part of the sentance.

[Ronald Pagan]

Rumours of the Liberal Party's demise are greatly exaggerated.