40th Canadian Federal Election - Welcome to another Conservative Minority (whee!)

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

As an NDP supporter (one of the few around these parts it seems), the most important thing for the NDP is to translate a significant amount of support (20% or 1/5 of voters) into a significant number of seats.

In the last election the NDP had 17.5% of the popular vote but only 29 seats. The Libers had 30% of the vote and 103 seats. The NDP need to do better at not only competing in ridings but WINNING them.

I think the NDP need 40+ seats for this election to be considered even a marginal success for them and to continue their momentum. If they want to be considered a true threat then something in the range of 50-70 seats are needed. Layton is well-liked by the Canadian people, he just needs to continue to show that the NDP is the only viable alternative to the Conservatives and the Liberals.

Also, watch for the green party to start winning seats in this election. With most polling showing them around 10% (up from 4.5% last election), they should have enough votes somewhere to win a seat.

I don't think the NDP will get up to 40 seats, but I can see them getting up to 35 or so, which would be their second highest total ever. A lot of their new support this time around is in Quebec, where they'll hold on to Outremont, and be lucky to pick up anything else. The presence of the Greens has helped the NDP; with another party flanking them on the left, they become a more centrist party, at least in terms of appearances.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

New polls are showing Conservative support slipping. Definitely away from a majority and even likely away from their support at the last election.

Two polls from yesterday have been released.

Nanos Research: Con - 34%, Lib 30%, NDP 19%, Bloc 10%, Green 7%

Harris-Decima: Con - 34%, Lib 24%, NDP 20%, Bloc 8%, Green 13%

Article on CBC about the Harris-Decima polling:

Conservative support slipping, poll suggests

Man those are HUGE discrepancies.....me thinks that the Harris poll is a bit out of whack.

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Man those are HUGE discrepancies.....me thinks that the Harris poll is a bit out of whack.

Noticed that myself. I also tend to think the Liberals are closer to 30% than 24 myself. It could lead to a close election if the Conservatives continue to lose ground over the final week of the campaign.

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by octothorp

I don't think the NDP will get up to 40 seats, but I can see them getting up to 35 or so, which would be their second highest total ever. A lot of their new support this time around is in Quebec, where they'll hold on to Outremont, and be lucky to pick up anything else. The presence of the Greens has helped the NDP; with another party flanking them on the left, they become a more centrist party, at least in terms of appearances.

You never know, it is possible. Layton has been a good leader for the party and it wouldn't entirely surprise me to see their best result ever with him at the helm... but overall I agree with you, it is always tough sledding for the NDP.

As an aside, very nice to see all the John Chan signs around in Calgary North Central.

[mrdeeds]

One thing is for sure, the last week or so of the campaign is gonna be bloodbath, probably the most entertaining since 1988 or 1993. I see the tide turning for Liberals rather than the NDP.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

As an aside, very nice to see all the John Chan signs around in Calgary North Central.

Since he runs for both the Federal and Provincial NDP.... I think this might be his 5th campaign in about as many years....
... he must get a heck of a price on his signs....

[Flames0910]

Layton is well-liked by the Canadian people, he just needs to continue to show that the NDP is the only viable alternative to the Conservatives and the Liberals.

you're kidding right? he's a clown.

[peter12]

Does this speak to the shockingly average intelligence of the normal Canadian? Problems I have with Harper aside, how you could even consider any of these clowns to be capable of running this country effectively is beyond me.

[transplant99]

It could lead to a close election if the Conservatives continue to lose ground over the final week of the campaign

And if they gain ground over the week...they could form a majority.

I just cant believe that anyone would vote Green or NDP when their respective "leaders" are taken into consideration. Even Dion isnt in the same class of buffoonery as those two IMO.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by transplant99

And if they gain ground over the week...they could form a majority.

I just cant believe that anyone would vote Green or NDP when their respective "leaders" are taken into consideration. Even Dion isnt in the same class of buffoonery as those two IMO.

And they are still waiting to release their platform, that will increase support even more.

[mrdeeds]

Originally Posted by peter12

Does this speak to the shockingly average intelligence of the normal Canadian? Problems I have with Harper aside, how you could even consider any of these clowns to be capable of running this country effectively is beyond me.

What would your alternative be?

[evman150]

Originally Posted by TanguayFan

you're kidding right? he's a clown.

Just because you think he's a clown doesn't mean the Canadian electorate thinks he's a clown. I for one think he's an outstanding leader who has done great things for the NDP.

That said, I'm a Liberal and will be disappointed with my riding inevitably going NDP again this election.

[mrdeeds]

For those who have an open-mind and are undecided, check this out

http://www3.thestar.com/static/election/quiz/index.html

[evman150]

Originally Posted by mrdeeds

For those who have an open-mind and are undecided, check this out

http://www3.thestar.com/static/election/quiz/index.html

Flawed. The Liberals finished last for me, even behind the Bloc. Pretty useless quiz IMO.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by peter12

Does this speak to the shockingly average intelligence of the normal Canadian? Problems I have with Harper aside, how you could even consider any of these clowns to be capable of running this country effectively is beyond me.

Agreed. Harper isn't perfect, but he is so far ahead of the other options, its not even funny. Frankly, its downright scary how incompetent his competition is. The NDP and Green Party are downright frightening, and its scary that people can find their misguided, poorly informed, selfish, P.I.G. (personal interest group) mentality desirable speaks poorly about the Canadian voter. (ie: Carbon taxes in Europe are not working across the board... not even close... Germany is in massive recession with 18% unemployment).

At least the Liberals pre and post Dion can be considered a competent choice. (even if some of us find them undesirable). Dion just has them in pure crisis mode. Even so, he's still a better choice than the NDP and Greens.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by transplant99

And if they gain ground over the week...they could form a majority.

The majority will be very tough; as with last time around, there's a strong anti-majority crowd; According to a recent Ekos poll, 19% of Canadians would consider switching their vote to another party if they knew that the Conservatives were poised to win a majority. If that happens, it'll be very difficult for the Tories to win those close races, as undecideds break for the non-Tories and Liberals/NDP/Green all informally trade votes to block the CPCs.

None of the other parties have started playing the 'prevent a majority' card as with last election, but if there's any Conservative upswing over the next week.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by peter12

Does this speak to the shockingly average intelligence of the normal Canadian? Problems I have with Harper aside, how you could even consider any of these clowns to be capable of running this country effectively is beyond me.

Most Canadians are intelligent enough to know that they aren't voting for a leader; they're voting for their local representation, as well as for the balance in parliament that's going to best benefit them. In some cases, people are voting for an MP who's done a great job representing them in the past. In some cases, they're voting because they hate their current MP. Some people vote based on wanting a majority or not wanting a majority. Some people vote based on wanting to give a fringe party a more prominent role. Personally, the party leader is not even in my top five list of criteria when making my vote.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Most Canadians are intelligent enough to know that they aren't voting for a leader; they're voting for their local representation, as well as for the balance in parliament that's going to best benefit them. In some cases, people are voting for an MP who's done a great job representing them in the past. In some cases, they're voting because they hate their current MP. Some people vote based on wanting a majority or not wanting a majority. Some people vote based on wanting to give a fringe party a more prominent role. Personally, the party leader is not even in my top five list of criteria when making my vote.

In the case of a parliamentary democracy, you are voting for a leader. After all, it's the leader and the cabinet who set policy.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by peter12

In the case of a parliamentary democracy, you are voting for a leader. After all, it's the leader and the cabinet who set policy.

Exactly. Octothorp is right in theory, but with party solidarity and campaigning by brand moreso than individual... a vote for an MP is a vote for the party leader, since they pull the strings. Even someone as polarizing and destructive as Rob Anders can really only bluster with no effect on policy as a backbencher.

[CaptainCrunch]

Should be interesting to see if the Conservatives get a bump on Tuesday when they release their platform. If its even a decent platform, it could sound the end of the other parties fighting to get elected, and start the breathless panic of trying to prevent the conservatives from getting a majority.

To me the Libs, NDP and Greens don't have anything left in their quiver, while Harper and the Conservatives have their biggest weapon coming.