40th Canadian Federal Election - Welcome to another Conservative Minority (whee!)

[Ronald Pagan]

It's sobering to understand just how significant and fundamental a change to get a low or zero carbon future will be. Your story exemplifies this perfectly. Unfortunately, we don't have much of a choice. Most climate models predict that a 2 degree increase in temperature is manageable for our ecosystems but anything more would likely have significant consequences meaning that your family farm could be one of the casualties (especially if its located in drought prone Alberta.)

So unfortunately, getting to a low carbon future is going to be painful. For yourself, a carbon tax will induce you to buy as efficient of a new truck as you can afford, it will induce development of low emitting farm equipment, and it will provide your family with reasons to adjust their land-use for less carbon emissions and offsets. The biggest crux is getting other countries to price emissions, and it's happening.

China, seen by many as the biggest climate laggard has the most to lose to drier temperatures and it knows it. It's annual imports of grain has been steadily increasing over the past 20 years as its domestic yields have dropped due to drought and alienation of farm land. China knows that it needs to do something about climate change because the country is more succeptible than any of the western countries to widespread famine. They are waiting for us to do something because we are ethically bound to be the first movers. After all, it isn't Chinese emissions that have warmed the planet to this point. They only started emitting over the past 30 years, we (the western countries ) have been emitting for over 150 and its the cummulative effect of those emissions staying in the atmosphere for over a hundred years which have got us to the situation we're in.

So I guess I take issue with the argument that we shouldn't be doing anything because we don't want to be the first ones to. Everyone will be doing things very shortly, why not start now and exploit some potential first-mover benefits?

[Ronald Pagan]

Look at the Oil industry in Alberta. Look at the impact that Stelmach's Brilliant () increase in royalties have impacted the oil industry in Alberta. Look at how much they have slowed and how much investment has been moved elsewhere.. such as Saskatchewan.

Well I'm pretty sure that since the new royalty structure was implemented oil sands production has never been higher so I don't know what your point is.

Besides that, the laughable 'debate' about the new royalty scheme shows just how pervasive oil company interests are with Alberta citizens. If you believe that the people of Alberta own the oil and gas underneath the ground than the royalty structure in 2007 was a terrible deal for Albertans. Cuts to corporate income taxes in the early 2000s gave oil companies a combined share of 14 percentage points of rents that they would have not received if the 1997 royalty structure was still in use in 2007.

That means billions of dollars were being transferred away from the people and toward private (multinational) firms. 14 percentage points! Yeah, right, that new royalty structure sure has screwed you, teh regular joe-average Albertan...

Seriously, wake up and smell the coffee

http://www.statcan.ca/english/confer...plourde-en.ppt

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by Ronald Pagan

Unfortunately, we don't have much of a choice.

....

They are waiting for us to do something because we are ethically bound to be the first movers.

....

So I guess I take issue with the argument that we shouldn't be doing anything because we don't want to be the first ones to. Everyone will be doing things very shortly, why not start now and exploit some potential first-mover benefits?

What a load of hooey. Nothing but fear and alarmism.

China is buying everything for the first time. Why wouldn't they buy the most environmentally sensitive products IF they really do care about the environment? Why would they buy all of these products / factories / etc only to replace them in another 5 years? Easy - it doesn't make sense. They won't... and it has nothing to do with ethics.

Design the technology. Prove that it works. Then move to it... don't start taxing and fining something when there is no alternative. It's just a tax grab, plain and simple, with an environmental excuse.

The carbon tax is not the only answer.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by Ronald Pagan

Well I'm pretty sure that since the new royalty structure was implemented oil sands production has never been higher so I don't know what your point is.

They could have left every mine/well (for lack of a better way to put it at the moment) but one at the same level as before, and only increased one by a tiny smidgen and production would never have been higher, so I don't know what your point is.

Originally Posted by Ronald Pagan

Besides that, the laughable 'debate' about the new royalty scheme shows just how pervasive oil company interests are with Alberta citizens. If you believe that the people of Alberta own the oil and gas underneath the ground than the royalty structure in 2007 was a terrible deal for Albertans.

That's a big IF, and one that doesn't apply.

Alberta houses all of the people and companies that refine the oil. With that comes jobs and lots of spinoff. This all has cooled down. No more are we talking about the "Need more people!".. now we're hearing "verge of recession".

Is it as simple as I'm making it out to be? Of course not.... but forcing the Oil Companies to reconsider where they're going to set up shop and now having another increase in costs for them isn't going to help keep people employed.

Originally Posted by Ronald Pagan

Seriously, wake up and smell the coffee

Nice elitist approach in assuming that you have a clue what I'm thinking. If he wasn't banned, I would swear that you're posting from Arizona.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by Ronald Pagan

Yep businesses are leaving, thanks (in part) to heavy investment in Oil sands which has driven our dollar up to the detriment of Canadian manufacturing. The reason businesses are leaving Sarnia have more to do with Oil sands extraction than with non-existent GHG regulations. I still don't get your point.

A planned refinery was cancelled and moved to texas for a few reasons, king amoung them was unpredictable business climate in canada.

Not literature, real life.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by Ronald Pagan

Well I'm pretty sure that since the new royalty structure was implemented oil sands production has never been higher so I don't know what your point is.

Besides that, the laughable 'debate' about the new royalty scheme shows just how pervasive oil company interests are with Alberta citizens. If you believe that the people of Alberta own the oil and gas underneath the ground than the royalty structure in 2007 was a terrible deal for Albertans. Cuts to corporate income taxes in the early 2000s gave oil companies a combined share of 14 percentage points of rents that they would have not received if the 1997 royalty structure was still in use in 2007.

That means billions of dollars were being transferred away from the people and toward private (multinational) firms. 14 percentage points! Yeah, right, that new royalty structure sure has screwed you, teh regular joe-average Albertan...

Seriously, wake up and smell the coffee

http://www.statcan.ca/english/confer...plourde-en.ppt

got it, I just learned two things.

1) you have very little idea of how the oil gas industry works (well I actually learned that a few posts ago, but its confirmed here)

2) you have no desire to learn anything. you are here to teach Alberta how the world works even if most of what you say has no basis in reality. No need to be encumbered with facts.

Oil sands producion hasn't declined but the cost to develop other, largely gas fields has change from economic to prohibative. And although nat gas and liquids doesn't get the same pub in papers where you are from it is more important to the ab economy. Further Oilsands development is a franction of overall oil production, there are about 30 grades of oil in AB and oilsands grades make up about 10 of them. On average they are bigger streams but again it is the smaller fields that employ a greater proportion of the people. IIRC oilsands projects in particular have special breaks in this royalty regime so by showing us development in Ft Mac to proove the new royalty structure works just exposes how much you don't know.

And btw the value shown to albertians is only there if business is allowed to function, and run their businesses.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

A planned refinery was cancelled and moved to texas for a few reasons, king amoung them was unpredictable business climate in canada.

Not literature, real life.

Cuz Hurricanes are much better

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by Rathji

Cuz Hurricanes are much better

apparently they are. Texas gets the investment, Canada doesn't. End of story.

[flamey_mcflame]

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

apparently they are. Texas gets the investment, Canada doesn't. End of story.

Yes, I can just see the the billions upon billions of dollars that are gonna be invested into hurricane alley in the future. Of course, the USA is almost the perfect example to use to contradict our poilicies up north. A country awash in a credit crisis, banking crisis, mortgage crisis and personal debt. Amazing how free market economics where greed and materialism above all has led to collapse of Freddie and Fannie, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch. A country that runs trillion dollar deficits and needs China to buy their treasury bonds so they can stay afloat. And no one even wants to mention the next credit crisis to hit that market. Here's a tip for you investors, personal debt( i.e. credit card, lines of credit, etc.) will be the next reality call for the good ole USA. It's always sweet poetic justice when personal responsibility catches up to consumerism and want. There's a new world order and the countries that thrive will be the ones who can afford to play the game. America is probably not the country you want to be investing in just now. Welcome to the global world.The story is just beginning.

[old-fart]

So, if all is as you claim and everything after implementation of the Carbon Tax will be much the same as it was before... what's the point? It's obviously not meant to have any impact on the environment at all as the there are no actual GHG emission reduction targets in the "plan". Dion has also spent every cent (and more) he says he's going to collect from the tax on either tax reductions or his pet social engineering schemes - so how would he pay for these things if consumption actually declined as he would taking in less tax?

This is nothing more than a tax grab to pay for Dion's agenda wrapped in a "green" wrapper. It is a sham.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by flamey_mcflame

Yes, I can just see the the billions upon billions of dollars that are gonna be invested into hurricane alley in the future. Of course, the USA is almost the perfect example to use to contradict our poilicies up north. A country awash in a credit crisis, banking crisis, mortgage crisis and personal debt. Amazing how free market economics where greed and materialism above all has led to collapse of Freddie and Fannie, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch. A country that runs trillion dollar deficits and needs China to buy their treasury bonds so they can stay afloat. And no one even wants to mention the next credit crisis to hit that market. Here's a tip for you investors, personal debt( i.e. credit card, lines of credit, etc.) will be the next reality call for the good ole USA. It's always sweet poetic justice when personal responsibility catches up to consumerism and want. There's a new world order and the countries that thrive will be the ones who can afford to play the game. America is probably not the country you want to be investing in just now. Welcome to the global world.The story is just beginning.

what's with the drama queen act, and what does this have to do with anything. I was showing an example of Cdn policy and business confidence in the future driving investment to the US.

[Ronald Pagan]

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

A planned refinery was cancelled and moved to texas for a few reasons, king amoung them was unpredictable business climate in canada.

Not literature, real life.

Couldn't agree more. You know what is causing an unpredictable business climate? Lack of a coordinated unified climate change policy. A harmonized national carbon tax would solve this problem.

Do you know what major oil sands producers would like to see? You guessed it, a carbon tax.

http://www.canada.com/edmontonjourna...ba3d11&k=62480

Guess who else supports one, the Conference Board of Canada...

http://www.conferenceboard.ca/cancom...reen_Taxes.pdf

[Ronald Pagan]

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

got it, I just learned two things.

1) you have very little idea of how the oil gas industry works (well I actually learned that a few posts ago, but its confirmed here)

2) you have no desire to learn anything. you are here to teach Alberta how the world works even if most of what you say has no basis in reality. No need to be encumbered with facts.

Well thanks for the ad hominem attack. I have an innate desire to learn, which is why I'm trying to get in a debate. I provide conference proceedings from Alberta's royalty review forum and their findings. You have provided anecdotal evidence.

Seriously, where do you get off saying I have no basis in reality? What makes you any more qualified to talk about these issues by virtue of your simple disagreement with me?

Oil sands producion hasn't declined but the cost to develop other, largely gas fields has change from economic to prohibative. And although nat gas and liquids doesn't get the same pub in papers where you are from it is more important to the ab economy. Further Oilsands development is a franction of overall oil production, there are about 30 grades of oil in AB and oilsands grades make up about 10 of them. On average they are bigger streams but again it is the smaller fields that employ a greater proportion of the people. IIRC oilsands projects in particular have special breaks in this royalty regime so by showing us development in Ft Mac to proove the new royalty structure works just exposes how much you don't know.

And btw the value shown to albertians is only there if business is allowed to function, and run their businesses.

This is largely an incoherent rambling and doesn't even address my arguement. The new royalty structure makes the cost of business more expensive, yes. It is the mandate of the Government of Alberta to ensure that its resources are used at economically and socially optimum levels and it was clear that under the previous royalty regime, that wasn't the case.

I stated that oil companies were receving 14 more percentage points in rents since 1997. Don't get me wrong oil companies deserve their returns, but an appropriate return on investment is generally considered to be 5 to 10%. Oil companies were receving well above this rate. These are rents which should go to the people of Alberta. How is this even arguable?

[Cscutch]

Originally Posted by Ronald Pagan

Couldn't agree more. You know what is causing an unpredictable business climate? Lack of a coordinated unified climate change policy. A harmonized national carbon tax would solve this problem.

Do you know what major oil sands producers would like to see? You guessed it, a carbon tax.

http://www.canada.com/edmontonjourna...ba3d11&k=62480

Guess who else supports one, the Conference Board of Canada...

http://www.conferenceboard.ca/cancom...reen_Taxes.pdf

Here is a quote from the Edmonton Journal article

Suncor Energy president Rick George stopped short of calling for consumer taxation, but said industry can't pay the entire cost for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
"Everybody's got a piece of this," said George

The greenshift fails because it exempts consumers and eastern manufacturing plants.

[Ronald Pagan]

The greenshift fails because it exempts consumers and eastern manufacturing plants.

LOL what?

Wow...

Those Conservative attack ads sure have done their job in completely misrepresenting the Green Shift.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by old-fart

So, if all is as you claim and everything after implementation of the Carbon Tax will be much the same as it was before... what's the point? It's obviously not meant to have any impact on the environment at all as the there are no actual GHG emission reduction targets in the "plan". Dion has also spent every cent (and more) he says he's going to collect from the tax on either tax reductions or his pet social engineering schemes - so how would he pay for these things if consumption actually declined as he would taking in less tax?

This is nothing more than a tax grab to pay for Dion's agenda wrapped in a "green" wrapper. It is a sham.

Bingo. So far, the only justification anyone has for Dion's Carbon Scam is "anything is better than nothing." Honestly, in this case, doing nothing different is better than Dion's "Green" Shift. No change to the environment either way, and better for the consumer in the long run.

If you want to make an impact, work to change our culture. Canada is a nation where there will always be higher costs for heating and travel. That is a fact of life. But when I pull into Tim Hortons this morning, park my car, walk around the 15 cars waiting in the drive through to get inside where there are FOUR people in line, that's where the issue is. I'm in and out within five minutes, while 15 people sit in their cars for 10 minutes in that line because they are too friggen lazy to walk the 15 steps from the parking lot to the door.

Also, while carbon is the cause célèbre amongst the faux environmentalist set, there are a great many other things we need to be looking at to help our environment. It is especially ridiculous that Calgary still doesn't have a decent blue box program, and those of us who do try to recycle end up having to go to one of the about four recycling locations within the city where the bins are always overfilled.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Cscutch

The greenshift fails because it exempts consumers and eastern manufacturing plants.

Actually, this is one point I'll agree with Mr. Pagan on. Dion's scam really benefits only Quebec. Ontario's manufacturing gets hosed as well, which is a major, major reason why it is doomed to fail.

[Ronald Pagan]

If you want to make an impact, work to change our culture. Canada is a nation where there will always be higher costs for heating and travel. That is a fact of life. But when I pull into Tim Hortons this morning, park my car, walk around the 15 cars waiting in the drive through to get inside where there are FOUR people in line, that's where the issue is. I'm in and out within five minutes, while 15 people sit in their cars for 10 minutes in that line because they are too friggen lazy to walk the 15 steps from the parking lot to the door.

Ok so what policy levers do you propose we use to change our culture? One tonne challenges?

I remind you that immediate action to reduce our GHG emissions is required.

[mykalberta]

Originally Posted by Ronald Pagan

Those Conservative attack ads sure have done their job in completely misrepresenting the Green Shift.

Dont feed the trolls.

Go back to working on your drum add in which the evil Nazii Conservatives will turn Canada into a police state.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Ronald Pagan

Ok so what policy levers do you propose we use to change our culture? One tonne challenges?

I remind you that immediate action to reduce our GHG emissions is required.

Actually, immediate action is not required. It is desired, and I maintain that the overfocus on GHGs is not true environmentalism. If people want to go green, it takes a lot more than an obsessive over-focus on one aspect of how we pollute our world.