40th Canadian Federal Election - Welcome to another Conservative Minority (whee!)

[octothorp]

The Harris Decima poll today is great news for the Conservatives, putting them at 41%.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2008/09/12/elxn-poll.html


That's up from 36% in the previous Harris Decima poll 4 days ago. It's worth noting that the the only three times in Canadian history has a party received more than 40% of the vote and failed to form a majority. Personally, I blame this on the fact that the opposition parties have been extremely slow to roll out any sort of media campaign. Harper has had a complete monopoly on dictating the dialogue.

[peter12]

Wow, that poll is huge. The Conservatives winning over two key groups that normally go Liberal. That's also a great sample, rolling over 4 days to an total sample of 1400. Very good margin of error. This poll is bad, bad news for the Liberals.

[CaptainCrunch]

Just reading some of the panic filled comments after the article is good for a laugh.

After nearly a week of what my mind has been a pretty bad campaign by the Conservatives for the polls to shift like this tells me that Dions message isn't resonating at all.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Just reading some of the panic filled comments after the article is good for a laugh.

After nearly a week of what my mind has been a pretty bad campaign by the Conservatives for the polls to shift like this tells me that Dions message isn't resonating at all.

Not too mention that all the hard work by the Conservatives to centralize and professionalize their organization is paying off in a big way. They've been able to react to mistakes very quickly and correct them.

This is going to be one long and exciting race.

[CaptainCrunch]

Ever think that some of these boondoogles in the Conservative war room such as the pigeon poop, and the accusation by one of the communication aids about the father of a fallen soldier have been done on purpose so that Harper can show that he's in control and willing to quash radical elements have been done on purpose?

[Slava]

I would wonder what the regional bias looks like though? If a huge part of their gain is in the west than the extra few points are really moot.

I don't think that things have been great for the opposition, but I also don't see huge momentum for the Conservatives at this point.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Ever think that some of these boondoogles in the Conservative war room such as the pigeon poop, and the accusation by one of the communication aids about the father of a fallen soldier have been done on purpose so that Harper can show that he's in control and willing to quash radical elements have been done on purpose?

That's interesting. They are very minor gaffes and the reaction was both swift and coincided to collide with messages that Dion has been trying to get across. That'd be very interesting.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Slava

I would wonder what the regional bias looks like though? If a huge part of their gain is in the west than the extra few points are really moot.

I don't think that things have been great for the opposition, but I also don't see huge momentum for the Conservatives at this point.

Where would the huge gains in the West come from? They could really only be made in BC to be that significant and that is unlikely. Judging from some regional polls that I have seen, the gains are most likely coming from Quebec and Ontario.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Ever think that some of these boondoogles in the Conservative war room such as the pigeon poop, and the accusation by one of the communication aids about the father of a fallen soldier have been done on purpose so that Harper can show that he's in control and willing to quash radical elements have been done on purpose?

I would doubt it. I don't think that people love the controlling aspect of Harper. Lets face it...half of the reason he is viable right now is the weakness of the opposition, and not due to his fantastic persona as a control freak!

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Slava

I would doubt it. I don't think that people love the controlling aspect of Harper. Lets face it...half of the reason he is viable right now is the weakness of the opposition, and not due to his fantastic persona as a control freak!

Nobody cares about that, only a small cadre of Ottawa media that are easily appeased.

Harper has been acting like every Prime Minister we have ever had. That is, the position is inherent to the centralization of power.

[old-fart]

Now there is this article in the french paper La Presse which basically says the Libs and the Greens have an agreement where Lizzie will, on the eve of the vote, urge all her supporters in close races to vote for the Libs. Is it any wonder why Layton and Harper consider her the Liberal Candidate in Central Nova?

And Dion had to can a candidate yesterday because of racist comments towards natives.

Doesn't look too good for the Libs. The Conservatives have been giving them a few gifts this week in gafs by the war room, and yet the Libs still can't capitalize. Once the Conservatives get their war room under control (and I'd expect that they now do after two significant flubs already), the Libs are going to get snowed under.

[CaptainCrunch]

The rumor is that Elizabeth May has been offered a senior cabinet position with the Liberals if Dion wins the Prime Ministers job. My bet is that she throws in the towel and throws in with the Liberals if she's trailing in her choosen ridings.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by peter12

Where would the huge gains in the West come from? They could really only be made in BC to be that significant and that is unlikely. Judging from some regional polls that I have seen, the gains are most likely coming from Quebec and Ontario.

Just curious which regional polls you've found; please post a link to them here (not doubting you, I just have been frustrated with the lack of polls that I've been able to find). I've been looking at nodice.ca, and the only Ontario polls they have were from Nanos and Harris in late august, and both show the conservatives way down and the liberals way up in Ontario. I would think that this has changed since then and leveled out a bit, but I haven't seen any regional polls to indicate this.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by peter12

Nobody cares about that, only a small cadre of Ottawa media that are easily appeased.

Harper has been acting like every Prime Minister we have ever had. That is, the position is inherent to the centralization of power.

I don't mean amongst the media. The fact is that Harper has muzzled a lot of his candidates and cabinet ministers in the past and is rather well known as a control freak (for lack of a better term).

My point here though is that Harper is quite widely regarded (even in this thread) as the best of a sad bunch. One can only wonder if the Liberals had not selected Dion as leader whether the situation would be the same...but really after two years of the CPC controlling things and rolling out their agenda they have failed to gain much in the way of popular support. This is in spite of a weak Liberal leader and weak opposition in general, them governing as if they had a majority and calling all the shots.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Just curious which regional polls you've found; please post a link to them here (not doubting you, I just have been frustrated with the lack of polls that I've been able to find). I've been looking at nodice.ca, and the only Ontario polls they have were from Nanos and Harris in late august, and both show the conservatives way down and the liberals way up in Ontario. I would think that this has changed since then and leveled out a bit, but I haven't seen any regional polls to indicate this.

I have some indirect access through work to some regional polls by Harris and Angus that haven't been released yet. My organization and I are not connected to any of the political parties in any way, but we do get some of this information thrown our way. I probalby shouldn't have stated it like it was a common thing. There was a recent Globe poll that showed the Cons tied with the Bloq and the Libs way down.

[FFR]

Apparently all fringe parties are now mounting their attack to be included in the leaders debates following the success of the Green Party.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...on2008&no_ads=

"
Parties from the margins of Canada's political spectrum are celebrating May's flight from the fringe to the front line of federal politics.
They're also clamouring for a place of their own at the big podium."

[CaptainCrunch]

They need to have a fringe party leaders debate, where its only the wacko's and nutjobs, just for fun.

I mean a debate between the commies, the grass smokers, the overly religous, the yogic flyers and the conspiracy theorists would be a ratings bonanza.

Paris Hilton could be the special guest commentator, and Jason Priestly could ask the questions that all Canadian's want answered.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The rumor is that Elizabeth May has been offered a senior cabinet position with the Liberals if Dion wins the Prime Ministers job. My bet is that she throws in the towel and throws in with the Liberals if she's trailing in her choosen ridings.

Won't it be a tough run for May to get elected? She is running against Peter MacKay in Central Nova (NS), although there is no Liberal running against either of them.

http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canad...novascotia.php

[CaptainCrunch]

Its going to be really tough for May to get elected, however if she loses and Dion wins, they'll just call a bi-election in a liberal strong riding, and run May for election.

Or if May manages to defeat McKay, she'll cross the floor or merge her party with the Libs.

[mykalberta]

If I remember from the last election, the only reliable poll was that offered by CPAC. They had the numbers +/-1. Wait till that poll comes out, then you will likely see the true numbers.