Democratic Presidential Primaries 2008

[Nehkara]

Final delegate update before West Virginia primary this evening.

Total Delegates:

Clinton 1697
Obama 1869 (172 ahead)


Pledged Delegates:

Clinton 1424
Obama 1592 (168 ahead)


Superdelegates:

Clinton 273
Obama 277 (4 ahead)


Obama opens up a lead (likely to be his largest of the campaign) of 172 total delegates including a shiny new 4 superdelegate lead.

[Caged Great]

How many are needed to win?

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

How many are needed to win?

2025

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

2025

Until Hillary sues to have Michigan and Florida counted, then its 2200ish.

[Sylvanfan]

I think at this point it's time to start making some Hillary Clinton epic fail photoshops.

[Iggy's Forehead]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I think at this point it's time to start making some Hillary Clinton epic fail photoshops.

[HotHotHeat]

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Almost as many of Hillary Clinton's West Virginia supporters would vote for John McCain as would for Barack Obama, exit polls show.

If Obama were the Democratic nominee, 36 percent of Clinton supporters would vote for him in the fall, the polls found.

But 35 percent said they'd cast their vote for McCain instead.

Can you imagine if the entire country were this racist?

Yes, yes I know...Race doesn't have anything to do with it.

[arsenal]

I found this. Probably fairly biased towards Obama, but i thought it was pretty interesting.

http://progressillinois.com/2008/05/...a-over-the-top

[Iggy's Forehead]

Originally Posted by HotHotHeat

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Almost as many of Hillary Clinton's West Virginia supporters would vote for John McCain as would for Barack Obama, exit polls show.

If Obama were the Democratic nominee, 36 percent of Clinton supporters would vote for him in the fall, the polls found.

But 35 percent said they'd cast their vote for McCain instead.

Can you imagine if the entire country were this racist?

Yes, yes I know...Race doesn't have anything to do with it.

No kidding. So basically, they're not Democrats, they just want to see someone other than Obama..based on what, exactly?

[HotHotHeat]

This Clinton communications advisor is hilarious.

John King:"Didn't Clinton sign a pledge agreeing that the degelates from Florida and Michigan wouldn't count?"

Howard:"That is false, she never took an official position"

LOL. I guess this is what we can look forward to for the next few weeks.

[Iggy's Forehead]

Originally Posted by HotHotHeat

This Clinton communications advisor is hilarious.

John King:"Didn't Clinton sign a pledge agreeing that the degelates from Florida and Michigan wouldn't count?"

Howard:"That is false, she never took an official position"

LOL. I guess this is what we can look forward to for the next few weeks.

Why do Michigan and Florida not count, anyways? And from what I've heard, even if they did it still wouldn't make a difference.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Iggy's Forehead

Why do Michigan and Florida not count, anyways? And from what I've heard, even if they did it still wouldn't make a difference.

Michigan and Florida moved up the date of their primaries (against party rules) because they thought they would be more influential if they voted earlier. Because they violated the rules, the DNC decided that their results wouldn't count (the Republicans, by comparison, punished those states by eliminating half of their delegates from the convention). Every candidate, Clinton included, agreed to abide by the party's ruling and not campaign in those states. Obama and Edwards didn't even have their names on the ballots, so the votes are a total sham. If Hillary wants those states to count, she's no better than a tin-pot dictator who has a "democratic election" with only one candidate.

Ironically, if Michigan and Florida had kept their normal primary dates, those states would have been extremely important in the Democratic race.

[blankall]

Does West Virginia mean the end for the Democrats?

Does it demonstrate how the doubling of the black vote in the primaries will influence the whole election? Can Obama take the swing votes?

The Democrats can't abandon Obama, so are they tied to a candidate that cannot win?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by blankall

Does West Virginia mean the end for the Democrats?

Does it demonstrate how the doubling of the black vote in the primaries will influence the whole election? Can Obama take the swing votes?

The Democrats can't abandon Obama, so are they tied to a candidate that cannot win?

Where are you getting this idea from that Obama can't win?

It's been one of Clinton's arguments of late that Obama can't win white voters, but the poll numbers don't really bear it out. Nor do primary results, which really have a much more limited applicability than you'd think. And the argument has very little basis in reality, if you look at the raw numbers.

As it happens, both Clinton and Obama lead McCain in hypothetical head-to-heads, and both appeal to white Democrats and swing voters approximately equally well, with Clinton enjoying only a slight edge, well within the margin of error. Don't take my word for it--you can get the numbers here: http://www.slate.com/id/2191303/ (you have to click on the links for the LA Times and ABC polls, which will download as pdfs)

So this whole idea that somehow Obama is doomed to failure just because he's black, is... well.... hogwash, in my opinion. The election is months away, and a race in May between Clinton and Obama has virtually no bearing on a race in November between McCain and Obama.

I'm not saying Obama will win--just that it's senseless to predict the outcome now, and that the outcome is likely to be based on factors other than Obama's ability to appeal to white working-class voters in the rust belt. (The talking heads will have some other dumb thing to talk about--Obama can't play darts, or McCain forgot the name of his VP candidate or some other such piece of minutia with no relevance to the process. That's generally how this works.)

But for now, the numbers look good for Obama. All across the board, including among white voters. Don't forget that Clinton's narrow win in Indiana was helped by Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos," in which republicans voted for Clinton in order to prolong the process. Without it, she likely loses, and this whole thing is probably over. But those voters weren't voting Democrat in November anyway, making the whole thing meaningless in terms of diagnosing where swing votes will go in November.

Indiana is exactly the kind of state that should confirm Clinton's supposition that she does better among white working class voters--and she did barely well enough to win, relying on extra votes that she would not be able to count on in the general election--and it's Obama who's unelectable? Don't be distracted by West Virginia--Obama didn't even campaign there, and it's virtually a sideshow in a primary that is all but over.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Just to hammer home how completely over this primary really is....

If Clinton wins every remaining state 65-35 (like she did tonight in WV) AND wins 65% of the remaining superdelegates....

She STILL loses. 2039 to 2013.

Give it a shot, if you're bored...
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/...ter/index.html

[RougeUnderoos]

One feeling I get from this whole mess is that a lot of people will be turned off (even moreso than they might already be) by Clinton's attitude of "if I can't have it, nobody in the Democratic party can".

I don't know if that's how she feels, but that's the impression I get. It's not pretty. Even if by some miracle she pulls this out, I'd think that there are a lot more voters that would be turned off by this selfish and perhaps obsessive display than would be turned off by the color of Obama's skin.

In other words... some people are dumb and will vote against a Democrat based on his race when theyotherwise would have. More people will vote against a Democrat who is coming across as a lunatic hellbent on winning the nomination at all costs.

And another thing... seems to me that a massive chunk of the morons who vote on skin color won't vote for a woman either. They aren't exactly the most enlightened people in the world.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Iggy's Forehead

No kidding. So basically, they're not Democrats, they just want to see someone other than Obama..based on what, exactly?

Because they're racist.....obviously.

[Nehkara]

Total Delegates:

Clinton 1713
Obama 1881 (168 ahead)


Pledged Delegates:

Clinton 1440
Obama 1599 (159 ahead)


Superdelegates:

Clinton 273
Obama 282 (9 ahead)


Despite Clinton's "crushing" victory in West Virginia last night... she gains 4 total delegates on Obama. Epic Fail.

[Dan02]

Clinton is in this for one reason now, she thinks she can get Florida and Michigan counted which give her a outside shot. I think she knows if she can't, she's done.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Where are you getting this idea from that Obama can't win?

Poll shows Obama or Clinton can beat McCain:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

A new poll out Wednesday suggests either candidate would easily beat Republican John McCain in the fall.

According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, both Democratic candidates beat McCain by a gap well outside the margin of error. Obama beats McCain by 7 points in the poll, 47 percent to 40 percent, while Hillary Clinton bests the Arizona senator by 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent.