Canadian Winter Election here we come

[HOZ]

Absolute no way Dion can support this considering his public declaration that he will not prop up the government if it abandons Kyoto. He is doomed folks....doomed. If he forces an election his party is a mess and fighting with each other. If he goes back on his word he is finished as leader of the Liberals

Harper puts the thumbscrews to him.

I put my money on him keeping Harper in Government.

[Cube Inmate]

If the "Kyoto is unachievable" policy does get into the speech, it'll be the end of Canada's ill-advised participation in that scheme regardless.... If the Liberals support the speech or abstain, it exposes their policies as nothing more than political opportunism. If they defeat it and force an election, they'll lose with Dion at the helm and Harper will have the mandate he needs to submit Canada's withdrawal early next year...minority or not.

Bring it on!

[Juventus3]

kyoto's problems and uselessness have been uncovered, the liberals are wrong to make it an issue.

[CaptainCrunch]

Part of me wants to see an election just to see a Harper and Dion debate.

Harper has been nothing short of brilliant as far as strategy goes, he's frankly painted the Liberal's into a corner, and whichever way Dion goes, the liberals are in huge trouble.

I also believe that its time to at the very least rotate the Canadian forces out of Afghanistan to rest and refit, I think they've earned that, but it comes down to the ability for other Nato nations to pick up the slack, and thats what Harper needs to work on before Feb 2009

[llama64]

If they manage to get rid of Canada's interest in Kyoto, I would be absolutely thrilled. That's about the only positive towards having an election though.

Kyoto's heart was in the right place, but it's deficient in so many ways.

[Ford Prefect]

The Libs won't force an election over Kyoto or anything else because it would be political suicide for them to go into an election right now. Poltical expediency trumps political ideals with the Libs 10 times out of 10. A lame duck Liberal opposition is as good as having a majority government, and I think Harper is starting to realize that.

[mykalberta]

Never underestimate the CBC and CTV durring an election.

The Debates (especially in French) will tell the tale of this election. If Harper can curb stomp Dion in the debate, they will likely get a hair thin majority. Also an NDP loss in Sask provincial election wouldnt hurt.

The other unfortunate factor is Williams in NFL. One one day he calls Harper "Steve" when the election is over he then calls Harper petty for announcing a deal with Nova Scotia (let me Guess, Williams was to busy trying to slag him to get a deal done).

Its my belief that Harper needs to embarass Williams enough to shut him up or to at least make his voice mean nothing outside the borders of NFL. If I were him I would go on local NFL TV'd debate with Williams. The Cons can afford to be shut out in NFL but they cant afford to have CBC and CTV running Williams quotes durring the election.

[HOZ]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

The other unfortunate factor is Williams in NFL. One one day he calls Harper "Steve" when the election is over he then calls Harper petty for announcing a deal with Nova Scotia (let me Guess, Williams was to busy trying to slag him to get a deal done).

Its my belief that Harper needs to embarass Williams enough to shut him up or to at least make his voice mean nothing outside the borders of NFL. If I were him I would go on local NFL TV'd debate with Williams. The Cons can afford to be shut out in NFL but they cant afford to have CBC and CTV running Williams quotes durring the election.

MAybe Harper need a better QB and a better running game?j/k

[albertGQ]

Originally Posted by HOZ

MAybe Harper need a better QB and a better running game?j/k

Yeah, we all know (Ricky) Williams is no longer an elite RB

[Slava]

Maybe the Conservatives should look at the actual polling results before they dive into an election so soon! Clearly they would win an election here on CP...as they would in most of Alberta.

The same is not necessarily true in Ontario and the rest of Canada though. Dion has been down and out for his whole career basically, but still manages to rise-up and come to the forefront.

[peter12]

While I admire Harper's political game, I also like the idea of a greener economy. Hopefully, he doesn't use this as an excuse to totally blow off the environmental agenda.

[MarchHare]

All the polls I've seen recently point to yet another (Conservative) minority government if an election were called today. Unless Harper really thinks he can pick up 10% or more popular support in the election campaign, a Fall election does the CPC no good. As terrible a leader as Dion is, the majority of the Canadian population have political views that are moderately left-of-center; look no further than McGuinty's huge election win in Ontario with religious school funding being the defining issue of that campaign. If Harper wants a majority, he'll have to move far enough to the middle to appeal to voters in all regions and in the process sell out the ideals of the Western conservatives who provide the base of his support.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by peter12

While I admire Harper's political game, I also like the idea of a greener economy. Hopefully, he doesn't use this as an excuse to totally blow off the environmental agenda.

I don't think the populace would let him. That is becoming the hot-button issue of the day.

The problem is that too many people have been deluded into the idea that "abandoning Kyoto = abandoning any and all environmental plans".

[Cube Inmate]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

All the polls I've seen recently point to yet another (Conservative) minority government if an election were called today. Unless Harper really thinks he can pick up 10% or more popular support in the election campaign, a Fall election does the CPC no good. As terrible a leader as Dion is, the majority of the Canadian population have political views that are moderately left-of-center; look no further than McGuinty's huge election win in Ontario with religious school funding being the defining issue of that campaign. If Harper wants a majority, he'll have to move far enough to the middle to appeal to voters in all regions and in the process sell out the ideals of the Western conservatives who provide the base of his support.

While I don't think it's realistic, I suspect that's exactly what he thinks he can do. A debate pitting Harper against Dion would be, in English at least, a slaughter. Until now, they've played out their positions through the media...if it comes down to a face-to-face event, we'll see the gloves come off.

Your assertion about Canadians' left-of-centre views may or may not be correct, depending on where you define the "centre" to be. Almost by definition, the "centre" in Canada has come to be wherever the Liberals are found. Of late, though, it seems to me that all of the parties have shifted to the left a little bit. Did the "centre" stay where it was, or does it continue to be defined as wherever the Liberals are?

My point, and I do have one, is that I don't believe the next election will be a battle of "left vs. right" because the two largest parties are so firmly entrenched in the mushy middle ground that it'll come down to other things that firmly differentiate them. Leadership is one of these. As a potential PM, Harper still polls well ahead of the others. Advertising and rhetoric are another two factors that will differentiate them. Will the Liberals trot out the "Scary Harper Hidden Agenda" tactics again? Will the Cons attempt to run on their record of the last 20 months (which hasn't really impressed me) or will they go negative?

It's all about the campaign this time.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Cube Inmate

It's all about the campaign this time.

I don't know if this is accurate or not either...but this is a scary prospect for the CPC. All it takes is one crackpot to shoot their mouth off about something stupid and suddenly this "pretty safe" election for Harper becomes like the last one for Paul Martin.

People in the west all count Dion out, but really he is not as inept as he has been painted to be!

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Slava

I don't know if this is accurate or not either...but this is a scary prospect for the CPC. All it takes is one crackpot to shoot their mouth off about something stupid and suddenly this "pretty safe" election for Harper becomes like the last one for Paul Martin.

People in the west all count Dion out, but really he is not as inept as he has been painted to be!

No? He was a no-show during the Quebec debacle and as such the Liberals lost all three potential seats. He follows this up with a classic hidden agenda attack on the CPC. He's bad.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Slava

I don't know if this is accurate or not either...but this is a scary prospect for the CPC. All it takes is one crackpot to shoot their mouth off about something stupid and suddenly this "pretty safe" election for Harper becomes like the last one for Paul Martin.

People in the west all count Dion out, but really he is not as inept as he has been painted to be!

Sorry, but the more I see of Dion, the more I see of Kim Campbell in a suit. Dion is terrible, he's done nothing to revitalize the Libs, and he's allowed himself to be outmaneuvered by Harper.

I expect that there will be an election, just not that soon, then shortly after Dion will have a lot of time to write his memoirs.

[mykalberta]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Sorry, but the more I see of Dion, the more I see of Kim Campbell in a suit. Dion is terrible, he's done nothing to revitalize the Libs, and he's allowed himself to be outmaneuvered by Harper.

I expect that there will be an election, just not that soon, then shortly after Dion will have a lot of time to write his memoirs.

To me Dion seems like the guy who should be behind the scenes making policy decisions. Although I had the same idea that Harper was like that before he became PM.

The problem for the Cons is the %'s arent likely to get better. Dion is on a low plateau right now, Afghanistan was the only real issue they had trouble with but Hillier's excellent leadership has really mitigated that.

Yes Kyoto is a good talking point, but to people who the CPC need to vote for them, its a non issue or its lower than the other points the CPC will bring out. Those poeple are more likely to vote Green, NDP, Lib wayyyy before they vote CPC.

[transplant99]

All it takes is one crackpot to shoot their mouth off about something stupid and suddenly this "pretty safe" election for Harper becomes like the last one for Paul Martin.

And that works both ways...the Liberals have as many crackpots as anyone...to suggest otherwise would be nothing short of eliteist and snobbery.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Sorry, but the more I see of Dion, the more I see of Kim Campbell in a suit.

Are you suggesting Dion has a vagina?