Subban arbitration UPDATE: Signs 8 year/72 million deal

[calgarywinning]

I am a Subban fan and enjoy watching his style of play. He is an exciting player. I can understand why Montreal can't come to terms.

Also, for every game-breaker or breakout, Subban has some game losers...

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Don't disagree on what they would want in trade. But if he's worth that then how do you not sign him to whatever it takes? Why screw him over at every turn?

[Beatle17]

Originally Posted by nik-

He may not have fit into Babcock's scheme, but it's kind of irrelevant. The Habs are paying him for what he does for the Habs, not Team Canada. And what he does for the Habs is pretty much run their show. To a much greater extent than Kane runs Chicago's.

Offensively yes. But his own coach doesn't put him on the ice late in games when they are up 1 goal.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Behind Enemy Lines

Don't disagree on what they would want in trade. But if he's worth that then how do you not sign him to whatever it takes? Why screw him over at every turn?

Because of the same reason I have pointed out repeatedly: Subban isn't after $7-8 million long term. He's after a lot more. The arbitration award he wants now will become the starting point for the next negotiation - the long term deal - with both sides going up from there. Unless Montreal is prepared to pay him $10-11 million+ per year, they pretty much have to take this strategy. Even if the risk is that they end up in a situation where a trade becomes the best, but unpleasant, resolution for both sides.

[Flames2007FIRE IT UP]

Offer sheets are very hard to justify.

If you get the guy signed to a reasonable contract chances are the other team will match. If you overpay to get the guy you lose cap room and more draft picks. So you are giving up a lot to get him.

Most teams that have the money for an offer sheet need the picks (ie - Calgary - imagine losing the next 4 years first rounders - those are likely core players especially the next 2-3 years, a decent chance 1-2 are better than Subban).

Good teams have to pay there own guys - ie Chicago, LA etc. So you can sign an elite guy but likely lose 2-3 good players because of the cap and you still gave up a lot of draft picks, probably 25-30 range but valuable assets especially at the deadline.

Buffalo by letting Vanek walk might have had:
2008: 12th overall (Tyler Myers)
2009: 10th overall (Magnus Paajarvi)
2010: First overall (Taylor Hall)
2011: First overall ( Ryan Nugent-Hopkins)

Now things could have changed in standings but I doubt Edmonton is that much better with Vanek, likely a few (1-2) spots higher especially the first year or 2, but I bet they are still bottom 3 the Hall/RNH years. The Calgary offer sheet on Ryan O'Reilly likely cripples Calgary for years. Even if Calgary gets O'Reilly (which is unlikely given the total disaster of a reading of the CBA) the picks lost are crippling, Monahan is not a Flame.

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Because of the same reason I have pointed out repeatedly: Subban isn't after $7-8 million long term. He's after a lot more. The arbitration award he wants now will become the starting point for the next negotiation - the long term deal - with both sides going up from there. Unless Montreal is prepared to pay him $10-11 million+ per year, they pretty much have to take this strategy. Even if the risk is that they end up in a situation where a trade becomes the best, but unpleasant, resolution for both sides.

If he was after 8 x 4 years as suggested and not a long term deal wouldn't they have been better off to sign him to that and then trade him for the type of haul you suggested. Versus just pissing him off, getting a couple of years where he isn't happy to be there and then making the trade. I would think first scenario gets you a lot more out of the player in the end and likely a similar trade return barring a serious injury.

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Add to that the prevailing thought that they could have signed him at 5 x 10 years prior to the bridge deal and this looks like pretty poor management. Not that this bothers me too much not being a Habs fan.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Behind Enemy Lines

Add to that the prevailing thought that they could have signed him at 5 x 10 years prior to the bridge deal and this looks like pretty poor management. Not that this bothers me too much not being a Habs fan.

He wasn't worth 5 x 10 prior to the bridge deal.

And if Subban was interested in an $8m x 4 deal now, the contract would already be signed, IMNSHO.

I'm not saying the Habs are taking the right strategy here. But I am saying that the $8.5 million Subban asked for in arbitration isn't his end game. It's merely a step up.

[HitterD]

Originally Posted by Flames2007FIRE IT UP

Offer sheets are very hard to justify.

If you get the guy signed to a reasonable contract chances are the other team will match. If you overpay to get the guy you lose cap room and more draft picks. So you are giving up a lot to get him.

Most teams that have the money for an offer sheet need the picks (ie - Calgary - imagine losing the next 4 years first rounders - those are likely core players especially the next 2-3 years, a decent chance 1-2 are better than Subban).

Good teams have to pay there own guys - ie Chicago, LA etc. So you can sign an elite guy but likely lose 2-3 good players because of the cap and you still gave up a lot of draft picks, probably 25-30 range but valuable assets especially at the deadline.

Buffalo by letting Vanek walk might have had:
2008: 12th overall (Tyler Myers)
2009: 10th overall (Magnus Paajarvi)
2010: First overall (Taylor Hall)
2011: First overall ( Ryan Nugent-Hopkins)

Now things could have changed in standings but I doubt Edmonton is that much better with Vanek, likely a few (1-2) spots higher especially the first year or 2, but I bet they are still bottom 3 the Hall/RNH years. The Calgary offer sheet on Ryan O'Reilly likely cripples Calgary for years. Even if Calgary gets O'Reilly (which is unlikely given the total disaster of a reading of the CBA) the picks lost are crippling, Monahan is not a Flame.

I think you would mean
2008: 22nd Overall (Jordan Eberle) since buffalo took Myers with their own 1st round pick...no?

Doesn't make it any better (worse actually)

[getbak]

Originally Posted by HitterD

I think you would mean
2008: 22nd Overall (Jordan Eberle) since buffalo took Myers with their own 1st round pick...no?

Doesn't make it any better (worse actually)

No, the Oilers gave their first rounder to Anaheim as compensation for the Penner signing. Anaheim traded it to LA and they traded it to Buffalo at the Draft.

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

He wasn't worth 5 x 10 prior to the bridge deal.

And if Subban was interested in an $8m x 4 deal now, the contract would already be signed, IMNSHO.

I'm not saying the Habs are taking the right strategy here. But I am saying that the $8.5 million Subban asked for in arbitration isn't his end game. It's merely a step up.

I heard one of the usual suspects, I believe it was Friedman, saying that Subban was asking for something like 8 x 4 so that he could get a Kane/Toews type deal on the next contract (knowing he wouldn't get that now). But that the Habs wanted a max term deal. I agree his end game is looking for huge dollars and unless he rounds out his game he isn't worth it.

And while he wasn't worth the 5 x 10 last contract I think you have to consider taking a shot on some of the up and coming guys like that if you want to be able to collect and pay enough talent. Otherwise you are going to end up in a cap crunch every couple years like Chicago (although only having 2 cups instead of four may be an acceptable problem I guess) or maybe a better example in Pittsburgh.

[The Coppernian One]

Originally Posted by HitterD

I think you would mean
2008: 22nd Overall (Jordan Eberle) since buffalo took Myers with their own 1st round pick...no?

Doesn't make it any better (worse actually)

The pick used on Eberle was part of the return when Edmonton traded Pronger to Anaheim.

[Tron_fdc]

This is exactly why Edmonton SHOULD offer sheet him. At the very least they burn a bridge with Montreal, at the very best they overpay for Subban, still totally suck, and lose 4 first rounders to an Eastern Conference team while pretty much guaranteeing another 10 years of bottom 5 placing.

It would be glorious.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

This is exactly why Edmonton SHOULD offer sheet him. At the very least they burn a bridge with Montreal, at the very best they overpay for Subban, still totally suck, and lose 4 first rounders to an Eastern Conference team while pretty much guaranteeing another 10 years of bottom 5 placing.

It would be glorious.

If Edmonton offer-sheeted Subban and I was Bergevin I'd laugh and laugh and laugh and let them have him.

Without Subban Montreal would be picking top-10 and Edmonton's lottery top 5 at the same time. It would be the most brilliant coup in hockey management history.

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by Locke

If Edmonton offer-sheeted Subban and I was Bergevin I'd laugh and laugh and laugh and let them have him.

Without Subban Montreal would be picking top-10 and Edmonton's lottery top 5 at the same time. It would be the most brilliant coup in hockey management history.

Can we jihad a poll somewhere to make this happen?

Whatever happened to that Kevin Lowe approval poll we hijacked?

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

Can we jihad a poll somewhere to make this happen?

Whatever happened to that Kevin Lowe approval poll we hijacked?

He's still there, isn't he?

[Hugh Jahrmes]

Oil fans would praise PK for hitting 65 points for the first 4 years of his contract while never finishing higher than 24th. I could dig it. He would really shine on a me first club like Edmonton.

I like Subban though, so for his sake, hope that doesn't happen. He would look ridiculous with a mullet


Edit-
If the hearing was early this morning, how have we not heard the result? Surely this is not a gruelling 12 hour process ?

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Locke

If Edmonton offer-sheeted Subban and I was Bergevin I'd laugh and laugh and laugh and let them have him.

Without Subban Montreal would be picking top-10 and Edmonton's lottery top 5 at the same time. It would be the most brilliant coup in hockey management history.

If Subban leaving caused the Habs to fall that far, it stands to reason that the Oilers - yes, even this team - would be dramatically improved by bringing him in. Those picks would be much lower, though probably still lottery.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

Alot of people like Subban and think hes elite. But would you build your team around this guy and want him to be "the guy" guiding the young kids in the dressing room and on the ice?

I dont think I would. Sure hes a nice complimentry piece, the main piece of your core?

Seriously? This is the guy that makes that team go. He just won a Norris. He just helped lead his team to the Stanley Cup finals. PK is 100% a guy you build a team around. Does his game have holes? Sure but he's young and only keeps proving more and more in this league. If there is anyone you want to follow into battle it's exactly a guy like PK.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Hugh Jahrmes

If the hearing was early this morning, how have we not heard the result? Surely this is not a gruelling 12 hour process ?

The arbitrator has 48 hours to reach a decision.