May 2015 Provincial Election Thread v2

[cal_guy]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Basically the cost of borrowing money increases, and you pay more interest to service your loans.

So it pretty much automatically means that the borrowing to spend infrastructure plan for the province is going to cost more.

This drop isn't a significant one yet, Alberta is still seen as a good borrowing risk. Its more of a warning then anything else.

If you want to see massive drops, Ontario and Manitoba have seen pretty big credit rating drops. In Ontario its really going to screw up their budget at some point.

In fact recent downgrades to sovereign debt have actually increased the value of bond prices and reduced borrowing costs. Of course Alberta debt is sub-national so it's not necessarily the same thing.

[chemgear]

The NDP government is flailing now, beset by the quadruple woes of low oil, huge spending promises, crippling inexperience, and the exhaustion that can overwhelm a new regime trying to do too much at the wrong time.

http://calgaryherald.com/opinion/col...-crisis-mounts

In the past week we’ve twice seen the kind of muddle and confusion that destroys confidence (such as it is) in a government. Premier Rachel Notley suggested to the Herald that if economic conditions warrant, she might reconsider her vow to raise the minimum wage to $15 by 2018. After that was reported, the premier’s office spent the better part of a day trying to convince other media she didn’t say or imply that.

We can only assume that interest groups got to Notley, just as they used to get to the Progressive Conservatives — although not at all the same groups, mind you.

Ceci almost floored me, to be honest, when he said in an interview on Monday that the loss of Alberta’s Triple A credit rating wouldn’t cost the province more, because lenders have already been factoring in the state of the economy, and charging more.

But how is this a good thing? Why should we be soothed by paying more even before the province is demoted?

Pity isn’t in order, though. That’s reserved for the thousands without jobs. The NDP needs a prod in the general direction of the real world.

[CaptainCrunch]

In otherwords, they need to get their stuff together and soon.

They can't blame the conservatives for their inept handling of multiple files and the general confusion coming out of the Premieres office.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

In otherwords, they need to get their stuff together and soon.

They can't blame the conservatives for their inept handling of multiple files and the general confusion coming out of the Premieres office.

Yeah, this is the type of stuff where I thought their inexperience would show through. It's kind of a catch-22 because the electorate doesn't want people without experience running the show, but the only way to gain experience is to actually do the job.

[Locke]

Finance Minister. What a joke.

This is like me phoning my bank after I lost my job and telling them not to worry, everything is going to be okay I'll just pay my mortgage and utilities with my credit card and then all of sudden the interest rate on my credit card goes up.

Wow. What an unlikely coincidence amirite?

[cal_guy]

Originally Posted by Locke

Finance Minister. What a joke.

This is like me phoning my bank after I lost my job and telling them not to worry, everything is going to be okay I'll just pay my mortgage and utilities with my credit card and then all of sudden the interest rate on my credit card goes up.

Wow. What an unlikely coincidence amirite?

Alberta bond yields are actually 25 to 50 basis points lower than last year for debt 5 year and under bonds. Just to show you how useless ratings agencies are for government debt, Alberta bond yields are identical to Ontario and Quebec both of which have and S&P A+ rating.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by cal_guy

Alberta bond yields are actually 25 to 50 basis points lower than last year for debt 5 year and under bonds. Just to show you how useless ratings agencies are for government debt, Alberta bond yields are identical to Ontario and Quebec both of which have and S&P A+ rating.

Thanks!

Although I dont think we need a lesson in the importance of S&P's ratings system. Lehman Brothers and AIG were AAA right up until the day they went bankrupt.

Coincidentally another Government picked up the tab for that one.

Its strange, it appears as though its surprisingly easy to spend other people's money.

[Slava]

Well you know the problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples money.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well you know the problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples money.

Danny DeVito disagrees

Lawrence Garfield: I love money. I love money more than the things it can buy. There's only one thing I love more than money. You know what that is? OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well you know the problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples money.

Naw. You just keep printing it.

[IliketoPuck]

I don't think Joe understands how debt ratings work. This isn't golf. Lower ratings don't mean you are doing it right Mr. Finance Minister.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[monkeyman]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

Naw. You just keep printing it.

What a great idea!
sincerely,
Post WW1 Germany.

[stampsx2]

Pre election ndp: we need to get off of our relicance on oil

Ndp today: we can't come through with a lot of our promises because of the price of oil

[stampsx2]

The ndp is the contractor that promised to do your bathroom renovation for much much less than the other guy. Fast forward and looks like we had some unexpected costs we weren't anticipating. Turns out they can't do it for that price.

[chemgear]

And instead they're busy lighting it on fire room by room. Hopefully they don't completely immolate everything in 4 years.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Yeah, this is the type of stuff where I thought their inexperience would show through. It's kind of a catch-22 because the electorate doesn't want people without experience running the show, but the only way to gain experience is to actually do the job.

It's only a catch-22 because the Alberta Liberals and NDP had been run by incompetent buffoons for decades. In a normal scenario, the PCs (including Wildrose, as an offshoot) wouldn't typically have held 90% of the seats, meaning the opposition on the left would actually have experienced politicians already available to them.

On the flip side, Joe Ceci, who does have 20 years experience in politics, seems to be intent on battling McCuaig-Boyd for the title of least competent cabinet minister. So it doesn't seem like having experience is helping either.

[Slava]

It's something of a catch 22 though because when you have almost no chance to win then you have a problem attracting top quality candidates. Who wants to run for a party that might elect 3-4 MLA's? So fast-forward 40 years and all of the experienced people are in one party.

[Resolute 14]

Yeah, that is a valid catch-22. But it all comes back to leadership. If the public rejects the leader, they reject the party. That is the entire reason why the NDP won the last election. And depending on who takes over for the PCs, will likely be why the NDP loses the next one.

Perhaps the Liberals should have done anything they could to get Ralph Klein to run for them back in the day.

[Ozy_Flame]

I honestly think Greg Clark and the Alberta Party are going to take alot of NDP votes in the next election. The guy is making himself very visible as a business-focused centrist alternative, and raises his voice quite well. He would do well as the opposition leader next round.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Yeah, that is a valid catch-22. But it all comes back to leadership. If the public rejects the leader, they reject the party. That is the entire reason why the NDP won the last election. And depending on who takes over for the PCs, will likely be why the NDP loses the next one.

Perhaps the Liberals should have done anything they could to get Ralph Klein to run for them back in the day.

Except there was no way anything with the even remotely related to the federal Liberal brand was going to be successful in provincial politics after the 80s. My point was largely along the lines of what Slava said.

To your point about Ceci though, I think that's more of an indictment of Notley for handing him a portfolio that he clearly isn't comfortable with. The article that was posted also seems to indicate it wasn't one he wanted either.