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Old 01-27-2016, 08:39 AM   #741
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Originally Posted by PeteMoss View Post
I didn't specify China or India - but here -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...curb-pollution


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...curb-pollution


India is well behind China in its development phase - so don't really see anything there.

I was more talking about Canada/US/Europe in my statement but China is starting the process to fix their pollution woes.
Well that's a start. But

Um china's giving the greenlight to 155 new coal fired power plants. They were approved in 2015. These alone will have twice the capacity of germany's coal fired plants and emit the same amount of carbon annualy as Brazil.

On a carbon emmisions scale who cares right now about india's carbon footprint. They produce about 5% of the total carbon emmissions in the world while china is at about 30%. The oil sands is under 1% of the total world emmissions.

I don't understand why greenpeace and Leonardo are making the oil sands a priority. Cut out the oil sands and make little change. Or is this about money?

Maybe "who cares" is strong wording but trying to make a point.

http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/201...-overcapacity/
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Old 01-27-2016, 08:47 AM   #742
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Well that's a start. But

Um china's giving the greenlight to 155 new coal fired power plants. They were approved in 2015. These alone will have twice the capacity of germany's coal fired plants and emit the same amount of carbon annualy as Brazil.

On a carbon emmisions scale who cares right now about india's carbon footprint. They produce about 5% of the total carbon emmissions in the world while china is at about 30%. The oil sands is under 1% of the total world emmissions.

I don't understand why greenpeace and Leonardo are making the oil sands a priority. Cut out the oil sands and make little change. Or is this about money?

Maybe "who cares" is strong wording but trying to make a point.

http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/201...-overcapacity/
The oil sands a are an easy target, and Canada (especially our politicians) are easily bullied by the big bad USA.

People in China don't read US magazine and don't give a flyng f--- who Dicaprio is (let alone the politicians who wouldn't give him the time of day), and therefore he has no clout.

He (and others of his ilk) are clearly choosing the battles they can win, not the battles that might matter.
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Old 01-27-2016, 08:47 AM   #743
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US distillate inventories are down quite a bit. Looks like a bit of a rally in the price now but we'll see.
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Old 01-27-2016, 08:52 AM   #744
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Renewables are replacing coal basically right now in most of the important coal burning countries US, China, Germany.
Where are you getting that info from?

Germany maybe. USA and China? I'm not sure I buy that at all, ESPECIALLY China.

I'm in China every 2 or 3 months over the last 12 years, and (anecdotally of course) the pollution is at record levels, especially in urban areas. I have a hard to time believing they are cutting much of anything.
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Old 01-27-2016, 08:58 AM   #745
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We do not need a bailout. It's not going to incent anyone to drill at a loss. Companies need to go bankrupt and people need to lose their jobs. It's what happens and its healthy for the overall oil and gas market.

Would I like a handout to my industry? In a vacuum of course. But what a tremendous waste of political capital...political capital that needs to be spent on getting pipelines built. That's how you help this industry, Alberta and Canada for a long long time.
This. We don't need a bailout. We could use a little political attention/intervention/support though. Like the people in power need to grow a backbone and start protecting our industries from foreign influence with clear political/economic agendas.

What we need is a new industry to demonize. Preferably one in the US.....
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Old 01-27-2016, 08:59 AM   #746
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I think OECD countries have already peaked or will peak in the next 2 years. Globally, the peak very much depends on kind of infrastructure investment in China and India. Probably 2030.
Global oil demand continues to grow at around the long term average over the past 35 years. You can keep ignoring that fact if you'd like but it kind of makes your argument irrelevant.
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Old 01-27-2016, 08:59 AM   #747
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Originally Posted by stampsx2 View Post
Well that's a start. But

Um china's giving the greenlight to 155 new coal fired power plants. They were approved in 2015. These alone will have twice the capacity of germany's coal fired plants and emit the same amount of carbon annualy as Brazil.

On a carbon emmisions scale who cares right now about india's carbon footprint. They produce about 5% of the total carbon emmissions in the world while china is at about 30%. The oil sands is under 1% of the total world emmissions.

I don't understand why greenpeace and Leonardo are making the oil sands a priority. Cut out the oil sands and make little change. Or is this about money?

Maybe "who cares" is strong wording but trying to make a point.

http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/201...-overcapacity/
Reading the article it just seems like China enjoys wasting money. They will be closing down older plants and they don't actually need these new ones so unless they are burning coal for the heck of it (since they don't need the energy) - these won't impact their overall coal energy use.
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:00 AM   #748
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I should have been clearer about China. Renewables are poised to start replacing lost coal capacity starting now in China.

Big capacity retirements are planned in the next 5 years and renewables will be looked to to fill in most of the gap. Renewable capacity additions are planned to account for half of all net capacity additions in non-OECD countries. China will account for 40% of global renewable capacity growth. That's from the IEA.

Globally new renewable capacity acounted for 45% of global net new capacity additions. How is this not huge?
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:00 AM   #749
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Where are you getting that info from?

Germany maybe. USA and China? I'm not sure I buy that at all, ESPECIALLY China.

I'm in China every 2 or 3 months over the last 12 years, and (anecdotally of course) the pollution is at record levels, especially in urban areas. I have a hard to time believing they are cutting much of anything.
That is why they are starting to cut coal. Because their air pollution issues are becoming unlivable.
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:04 AM   #750
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Further, there's just ridiculous straw men being thrown around here. No serious person is saying that we should replace oil with renewables. Oil and fossil fuels still have a significant share of energy consumption in many low carbon reduction scenarios. Oil's share is typically around 20% in a low carbon world.
To take what you're saying even further, renewables have nothing to do with oil at all. To say that renewables are growing to the detriment of oil demand just shows ignorance.
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:06 AM   #751
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That is why they are starting to cut coal. Because their air pollution issues are becoming unlivable.
From IEA:

Quote:
For the first time since the Medium-Term Coal Market Report was first produced in 2011, a “peak coal scenario” in China is probable. The drivers of this peak would be an even stronger rebalancing of the economy, with stagnating housing and infrastructure construction and lower-than-expected power demand, mainly from declining electricity use in heavy industry. A further acceleration of renewable investment is possible, but the key uncertainty is the macroeconomic structure. Whether consumed directly or through electricity, around one-third of the coal used in China is related to infrastructure and real estate. A stronger rebalancing, coupled with ongoing renewable and energy efficiency investments, can conceivably cut Chinese coal demand – a drop of 200 Mtce below 2013 levels.
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/MTCMR2015SUM.pdf

Coal's out, renewables are in.
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:07 AM   #752
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To take what you're saying even further, renewables have nothing to do with oil at all. To say that renewables are growing to the detriment of oil demand just shows ignorance.
Who ever said that? Certainly not me.
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:11 AM   #753
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Who ever said that? Certainly not me.
Not saying that you said it. Just that conversations about oil inevitably turns to renewables, when they're barely even related - renewables have nothing to do with oil demand. At this point anyways. If electric modes of transportation take a meaningful proportion of global transport someday, then it's different, but that day is a looooonnnng way off.

Oil demand continues to grow at 1% or 2%, I think around 2/3 of which is from emerging markets. As long as that number stays more or less in line, supply will fluctuate around it but the oil business will remain a going concern.

Given how cheap and plentiful nat gas is, it's not exactly doing any favours for renewables. Also nat gas is pretty clean. Renewables are not without warts, there's huge efficiency and other issues.

Agree with you that coal is dying completely. So dirty.
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:12 AM   #754
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I should have been clearer about China. Renewables are poised to start replacing lost coal capacity starting now in China.

Big capacity retirements are planned in the next 5 years and renewables will be looked to to fill in most of the gap. Renewable capacity additions are planned to account for half of all net capacity additions in non-OECD countries. China will account for 40% of global renewable capacity growth. That's from the IEA.

Globally new renewable capacity acounted for 45% of global net new capacity additions. How is this not huge?
Well that will make china an environmental leader. Glad to see they are going in this direction. This is what we need, china to start going green. I will watch and see. Five years you say?

Now that that's solved let's start focusing on our neighbors to the south who account for almost 20% of the worlds carbon footprint.
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:12 AM   #755
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The oil sands a are an easy target, and Canada (especially our politicians) are easily bullied by the big bad USA.

People in China don't read US magazine and don't give a flyng f--- who Dicaprio is (let alone the politicians who wouldn't give him the time of day), and therefore he has no clout.

He (and others of his ilk) are clearly choosing the battles they can win, not the battles that might matter.
Add on, if China had the protesters that we had, they'd have a ready source of organs for harvesting, and a heavy month end of bullet invoicing.

Canada is bullied like it is because we give too much of a crap about these protesters and environmental weinies who protest here, but don't do anything about the major polluters in the US and China.

We squeal when we perceive that someone is mad at us on an individual or group basis.

Because of that we've become an easy target of every group that wants to strut around saying, hey we're making a difference. But what about the US' disgusting energy industry in California, or the amount of coal that they rip out of the ground in those ugly destructive strip mines to export to dirty plants in India or China. Or how its ok for your environmentally sounds President to brag about being the pipeline president in the states, but the one that we ask for is dirty because it comes from the Oilsands. but its ok to pipeline the stuff from California.

I get the right to protest, I strongly dislike the professional protest movement that's there to make money via groups like Tides and the other ones.

Go and take a lash or a bullet in China, or get arrested and thrown in jail in India, or stand up to big Oil in California or Texas or in the middle American strip mines, at least then I would respect you for standing up for something and trying to make a difference.

Because we don't know where these so called foundations are getting their money from, my assumption is that these groups up here protesting are nothing more then as Stalin would have called them, useful idiots.

On top of it wheres the comprehensive environmnetal planning. I get that climate change is the big buzz word.

But what about the toxicity of the water and the destruction of those eco systems due to dumping of chemicals and waste (Yeah I'm looking at you Montreal, and your poop water program)

What about air quality? Don't hear much about that anymore except for the running joke that is China (Hey look Jesus could walk on air there)

What about the strip mining and the horrible destruction it causes to get coal out of the ground. (But its good for export says everyone)

Why don't we hear about Tides bribing people to protest these things, they might give it a cursory glance, but this planet doesn't need to focus on one thing anymore, we've got a whole ton of environmental disasters going on that are being ignored.
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:16 AM   #756
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I should have been clearer about China. Renewables are poised to start replacing lost coal capacity starting now in China.

Big capacity retirements are planned in the next 5 years and renewables will be looked to to fill in most of the gap. Renewable capacity additions are planned to account for half of all net capacity additions in non-OECD countries. China will account for 40% of global renewable capacity growth. That's from the IEA.

Globally new renewable capacity acounted for 45% of global net new capacity additions. How is this not huge?
What types of generation are you classifying as renewable?

Not giving you the gears, I'm genuinely curious. Growth is still crazy in China and the air quality is disgusting; from what I have been told it is caused by coal power plants and cars.

I was always under the impression they are building out their power requirements with nuclear. I see them under construction all over the place, but have never looked at the capacity numbers.
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:18 AM   #757
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Let's play a game...which one will get built first?

1) Keystone XL
2) Energy East
3) Trans Mountain
4) CalgaryNext

5 - High speed rail between Calgary and Edmonton.
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:20 AM   #758
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From IEA:



http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/MTCMR2015SUM.pdf

Coal's out, renewables are in.
Haha. Um, did you read the quote you posted? It says china's coal might of reached a peak primarily because of their stagnating economy. Some focus on renewables in there but no word on how or what kind which to me is a red flag.
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:22 AM   #759
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So far, Tinordi has not been overly impressive.
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Old 01-27-2016, 09:24 AM   #760
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I'm starting to think if we want to clean up this planet we will have to do it ourselves. We can't wait for the environmentalists. Their leader Notley hasn't exactly impressed on the environmental front either.
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