Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[Lubicon]

I'd guess it would have to be north of $60 to see much rebound at all, and depending on what is considered 'strong rebound' it could be closer to $70 or more.

[heep223]

"Rebound" could mean many things. Stock prices? Capex? M&A activity? Jobs?

[Looch City]

Someone at Subway needs to graph the sales of double meat subs.

Double meat graph trending upwards = we are rebounding.

[GGG]

I think we see stability (ie no more layoffs) at $50.

This would include minor increases in Capex to sustain current production levels with no expansion in production.

I think at $60 you see slow targeted expansion of production.

At $80 - order as much meat on your sub as you want.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Azure

At point price point do we start seeing a strong economic rebound?

Prolonged time over $75?

Not anytime soon.

I think there are fundamental changes coming to industry in regards to liability's and creditors that is going keep Alberta from being a hot economy again for quite some time.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

McKinsey: Global oil demand will peak by 2030

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...ash-forecasts/

Predicting the future is hard.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/n...nergy-outlook/

https://www.theguardian.com/science/...andpetrol.news

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Prolonged time over $75?

Not anytime soon.

I think there are fundamental changes coming to industry in regards to liability's and creditors that is going keep Alberta from being a hot economy again for quite some time.

Agreed, also the WCSB is a natural gas basin primarily. When people talk about the price of oil, oilsands oil which is trapped as no capacity enhancements are on the horizon and egress expansion is stalled significantly, what we really need to be talking about in terms of a true revival is the price of natural gas and liquids. Nobody ever cites the price of AECO on here and it makes no sense. There's an entire other commodity just ignored on this site in these conversations. It's bizarre.

Oh, and the answer is next winter things will get better, gas will rebound as we will have a cold winter due to a potential La Nina effect and large storage draws. Also agree with Q, we are in a new economic reality... service firms are getting it, there'll be a trickle down effect on salaries, bonuses and expectations in E&P's too.

[Bill Bumface]

^Because the Marcellus means our biggest gas customer no longer needs us so gas prices will be crap for our remaining lifetimes.

We are talking about a commodity that is commonly destroyed (flared) as a nuisance by product not worth transporting in jurisdictions without existing infrastructure and loose regulation.

Plus we seem to have thoroughly shot ourselves in the feet trying to get any timely LNG export infrastructure in place.

[Fuzz]

I read an article that Hilary may ban fracking entirely. I'd see that as a big boost to gas prices, as you can't get much gas out of the shale reservoirs without it. Trump, no the other hand, has said he supports Keystone XL, but is also a drill baby drill guy, so I'm not sure that would be better.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I read an article that Hilary may ban fracking entirely. I'd see that as a big boost to gas prices, as you can't get much gas out of the shale reservoirs without it. Trump, no the other hand, has said he supports Keystone XL, but is also a drill baby drill guy, so I'm not sure that would be better.

Not a chance.
That would absolutely devestate US domestic oil & gas exploration and production.
There would be thousands of people out of work and prices would go up pretty quickly/significantly. T
he number of people that would alienate vs the number of people who see fracing as some great evil, and would actually be pushing for something like that, would be orders of magnitued bigger.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz

Not a chance.
That would absolutely devestate US domestic oil & gas exploration and production.
There would be thousands of people out of work and prices would go up pretty quickly/significantly. T
he number of people that would alienate vs the number of people who see fracing as some great evil, and would actually be pushing for something like that, would be orders of magnitued bigger.

I don't know about that. Several states already have moratoriums on fracking. Several Europeans countries have banned fracking, and there's a push to ban it in the UK and Australia. A quite large and growing number of people consider fracking a great evil.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I don't know about that. Several states already have moratoriums on fracking. Several Europeans countries have banned fracking, and there's a push to ban it in the UK and Australia. A quite large and growing number of people consider fracking a great evil.

1) None of the states that have a significant O&G industry/future due to fracing have banned fracing. New York and Maryland aren't exactly going to move the needle.

2) Europe and Australia have nothing to do with domestic O&G production in the US. Banning fracing in the US would have a huge impact on that and that's where the job losses & price increases would come from.

Hell having countries overseas ban fracing is great for the US, it gives them a competitive advantage which is huge, especially now that they have the technology & resource base (thanks to fracing) that they can be a net exporter of oil.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz

1) None of the states that have a significant O&G industry/future due to fracing have banned fracing. New York and Maryland aren't exactly going to move the needle.

2) Europe and Australia have nothing to do with domestic O&G production in the US. Banning fracing in the US would have a huge impact on that and that's where the job losses & price increases would come from.

Hell having countries overseas ban fracing is great for the US, it gives them a competitive advantage which is huge, especially now that they have the technology & resource base (thanks to fracing) that they can be a net exporter of oil.

I'm not saying it would be smart. But there certainly is widespread political support for banning fracking. And Clinton has shown she will appeal to her base even if it means hurting the economy.

[nik-]

fracking is also a way smaller proportion of the US economy compared to here, and there's a lot of Saudi money in that Clinton Foundation.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

^Because the Marcellus means our biggest gas customer no longer needs us so gas prices will be crap for our remaining lifetimes.

We are talking about a commodity that is commonly destroyed (flared) as a nuisance by product not worth transporting in jurisdictions without existing infrastructure and loose regulation.

Plus we seem to have thoroughly shot ourselves in the feet trying to get any timely LNG export infrastructure in place.

How much more growth in natural gas usage can we get within Canada if we get the provinces to work together? Tall order I know, but I guess we can always dream.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

^Because the Marcellus means our biggest gas customer no longer needs us so gas prices will be crap for our remaining lifetimes.

We are talking about a commodity that is commonly destroyed (flared) as a nuisance by product not worth transporting in jurisdictions without existing infrastructure and loose regulation.

Plus we seem to have thoroughly shot ourselves in the feet trying to get any timely LNG export infrastructure in place.

There's always a reason (an unknown reason) why commodity prices are cyclical, but at this point it's tough to disagree with your position. My main point in my post was that the price of natural gas is a major factor when discussing a recovery to Calgary's economy because there are so many companies' cash flows are dependent on it and its' recovery, and it's always just tunnel vision on here about oil price which is only a part of the equation.

Also, there's a huge difference between today's deplorable and uneconomic price and what even a mild storage draw will do to it. Companies can make money at a surprisingly low price, which a draw on storage with 1 cold season will drive.

Is it likely it will ever get to $11/mcf? No.

Is it likely it'll return to $3-$4? Yes. Is this economic? Yes.

[Fuzz]

Hope y'all put some of that extra meat in the fridge. Oil down to $46.81 now.
https://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil

Some good graphs here on the gas market
http://www.gasalberta.com/pricing-market.htm

[rubecube]

What are people's opinions on Mark Jacobson? He's a huge proponent of renewable energy and it looked like he kind of clowned Brad Wall on Twitter. He's often quoted by Naomi Klein but he's not some fringe loon either as he's an engineering professor at Stanford.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by rubecube

What are people's opinions on Mark Jacobson? He's a huge proponent of renewable energy and it looked like he kind of clowned Brad Wall on Twitter. He's often quoted by Naomi Klein but he's not some fringe loon either as he's an engineering professor at Stanford.

He's a hero to some who think 100% renewables are possible, others say he's a fraud because his plans are the most expensive and slowest way to decarbonize electricity (and the least likely to be successful).

For a glimpse of what his plans would mean, look to Germany. Huge investments in unreliable solar and wind combined with cuts in nuclear mean virtually no improvement in CO2 emissions from electricity generation and no possible pathway to decarbonization as it remains hugely dependent on coal, while France did it successfully with a nuclear push.

[Mr.Coffee]

There's nothing wrong with renewables. If it means we are taking better care of the planet, bring it on! My career and livelihood is pretty sticky to oil and gas, and it's a pretty specific career path ive chosen. I think a lot of people, like me, if renewables just somehow jumped oil and gas as the primary energy mix miraculously sooner than expected, will manage just fine. Will get other jobs. It'll eventually work out.

I just don't see how it happens though. How do we use renewables for roads? Fertilizer? Petrochemicals? We use oil for lots of different things. Many of these things are just ignored when people talk renewables.