Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[red sky]

It definitely feels like the sentiment has changed a little. $45 won't incent investment in Canada but it is not far off from Permian operators who are decently hedged to consider putting down some rigs. There was another 8 rigs pulled from the states w-o-w so this is starting to look like it setting up for an underinvestment scenario in 2017 and beyond. The elasticity of shale supply will play a role in capping the price but like it has done historical, it will likely overshoot on the high side. I think fundamentals have finally taken hold of the market here. You can't have this much investment pulled from the market without a recovery. It is a cyclical business after all.

[Weitz]

Heard Murphy Oil shut down their whole D&C group in the USA.

[ah123]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Heard Murphy Oil shut down their whole D&C group in the USA.

What does D&C stand for?

[FLAMESRULE]

Originally Posted by ah123

What does D&C stand for?

Drilling and Completions.

[Violator]

its not much but its something

NEB approves Enbridge Line 3 pipeline replacement



http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/enbr...atch-1.3551964

not going through BC or Quebec but has to go into the states

[Fuzz]

Alberta isn't the only one getting it's credit rating downgraded...

Standard & Poor's on Tuesday reduced Exxon Mobil Corp's (XOM.N) credit rating to AA+ from AAA, saying low oil prices will make it difficult for the world's largest publicly traded oil producer to keep funding high dividends and share purchases for the next few years.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ex...-idUSKCN0XN26L

They have had that rating since 1930...

[Ducay]

Suncor buying Murphy's stake in Syncrude. Huge move

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...rude-1.3556464

[Frequitude]

Suncor keeps on rolling.

[Ducay]

All those free-cash-flows from reduced Mug overhead had to be spent somewhere

[Izzle]

Whoa... oil at close to $46 bucks??

Who's with me for lunch? Beef at earls?!?

[_Q_]

Triple meat at subway today.

[heep223]

At $50 we'll see growth, slow resumption of capex and probably a lot of hedging. Wouldn't be surprised if we floated between $50 and $55 for a while now.

[polak]

The daily updates on Crude that I get at work from Shell have been a lot more optimistic lately.

Maybe I'll actually start reading them again...

[LanceUppercut]

http://boereport.com/2016/04/28/meg-...e-environment/

MEG states their net operating cost on a barrel is $8.53. I assume this doesn't include any of the office overhead/debt costs for the construction etc?

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by Ducay

All those free-cash-flows from reduced Mug overhead had to be spent somewhere

Murphy's coffee mugs are included in the deal. Synergies.

[Husky]

Originally Posted by heep223

At $50 we'll see growth, slow resumption of capex and probably a lot of hedging. Wouldn't be surprised if we floated between $50 and $55 for a while now.

50 isnt high enough to offset declines. It will allow more capital incestment but not enough to keep production flat, let alone growth.

[Azure]

Dollar is up to $.80 which is nice to see as well.

[stampsx2]

Originally Posted by heep223

At $50 we'll see growth, slow resumption of capex and probably a lot of hedging. Wouldn't be surprised if we floated between $50 and $55 for a while now.

Depends where the u.s. economy goes. They had a slower than expected growth last quarter which is just about the only reason oil is rallying. Global demand for oil is growing quicker than expected which helps as well. However oil at this price helps oil shale as well which is going to keep up the oversupply. Then there's iran.

[heep223]

Oil is on track for its largest monthly gain in 7 years.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by LanceUppercut

http://boereport.com/2016/04/28/meg-...e-environment/

MEG states their net operating cost on a barrel is $8.53. I assume this doesn't include any of the office overhead/debt costs for the construction etc?

That is the cost to get a barrel out of the ground including operations and maintenance but not including and debt, construction or sustaining capital required to maintain production levels.

That's essentially the lowest number in the SAGD side of the industry. Cenouvous is about the same.