Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by devo22

I posted this in the "drive for 30th" thread, but I guess it fits here as well. I took a look at the schedules of the seven teams at the bottom and tried to predict the outcome as realistically as I could think of.

FLORIDA PANTHERS: I don't expect much from them, they have 30th pretty much wrapped up.
at NYR L
at NJD L
at BOS L
vs NYR OTL
vs TOR L
at TBL OTL

COLORADO AVALANCHE: Giguere's rant has lifted them a bit, but they'll probably lose most of the games left.
vs EDM W
vs STL L
at STL L
at PHX L
vs MIN OTL

CALGARY FLAMES: tough schedule. I predict one more win, probably against Nashville.
vs DET L
vs ANA L
at MIN L
at NSH W
at STL L
at CHI L

CAROLINA HURRICANES: they have been pathetic, given their offensive depth. They have pretty much given up trying.
at WPG L
vs PHI OTL
at TBL OTL
vs NYI L
vs NYR L
at PIT L

NASHVILLE PREDATORS: shockingly bad ... 7 straight losses, 3 shutouts against during that span. I don't see them win another game.
at CHI L
vs CGY L
at DET L
at CBJ L

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: probably the easiest schedule, with CAR and FLA at home. I don't see them picking in the top 5.
at MTL L
vs CAR W
vs TOR L
at BOS L
vs FLA W

EDMONTON COILERS: something special. They have given up trying and have a tough schedule left = bad combination.
at COL L
vs ANA L
vs ANA L
vs CHI L
at MIN L
vs VAN L

As a result, the standings would look like that:

24 | 42 Points | Tampa Bay Lightning (19-25-4, 16 ROW)
25 | 39 Points | Edmonton Coilers (16-25-7, 14 ROW)
26 | 38 Points | Carolina Hurricanes (17-27-4, 17 ROW)
27 | 38 Points | Calgary Flames (17-27-4, 17 ROW)
28 | 38 Points | Colorado Avalanche (15-25-8, 14 ROW)
29 | 38 Points | Nashville Predators (15-25-8, 13 ROW)
30 | 34 Points | Florida Panthers (13-27-8, 10 ROW)

In that scenario, we would be ahead of Colorado and Nashville because of ROW, but behind Carolina because of goal differential. It's very close though, there's a good chance that we finish 25th, but we could also easily finish 28th or 29th.

I like your picks. Is it me or is there something wrong when teams like the Lightning, Hurricans, Predators, and Avalanche are playing this poor to end the season? I cut the Flames, Panthers, and Oilers slack because they are all bad teams for various reasons. The other teams simply should not be losing out to in the final weeks of the season and I'm wondering if this lottery has done the exact opposite of the desired effect with teams all tanking to finish bottom five because of the lottery chances of picking 1st without finishing last. I simply don't remember so many teams in a single season tanking like this. Something is not right here. Finally the Flames are finishing at the bottom of the league for the first time ever (and deservedly so) and it's like there's a race of 7 teams trying to out-suck the others with a bunch of them fairly talented teams already. Sad.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by New Era

Or is it just tempering expectations based on past events? It doesn't take a lot to reach way back into the archives and pull up clippings about how Dan Tkachuk was going to be the next Steve Yzerman or Oleg Saprykin was going to be the next Alexander Mogilny or Rico Fata was going to be the next Rico Fata (Rico is so legendary that he was comared to himself before he was drafted). Every draft these kids get compared to hall of fame players and have to live that down for the rest of their lives. I just don't think that is fair.

well I understand your concerns, I really do. But for me, it's sooooo tiresome that people still bring up Fata and Tkaczuk ahead of every draft. Yes, they were busts, but that was 15 years ago! As if we're the only team that had busts in the top 10. It happens. But given that our scouting has improved dramatically over the last few years and that f.e. the 2011 draft looks fantastic (I expect them to sign every guy from that draft ... Sven, Wotherspoon and Brossoit are already under contract, Feaster said they're in discussions with Granlund, and it's almost a given that they will sign Johnny Hockey next year), I'm pretty optimistic.

Plus, in terms of comparisons etc, I think it's safe to say that the scouting in general is a lot more professional than 15 years ago. Maybe it's me, but I get the feeling that there are fewer and fewer early round busts because the level of scouting is much more advanced. Maybe I'm completely off here, but that's just my impression.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

Perhaps it was not clear, but comparisons to Forsberg and Toews are based on their playing style alone, and not a projection of their future NHL achievements. It's usefull to know that a player plays in a style compared to so&so, especially in the case of a team that is overbalanced in certain areas &
completely lacking in others.

We all know it is likely that a solid % of these guys don't reach these lofty pre-draft expectations, but my perceived 'optimism' is based on published scouting reports, videos and draft profiles. As opposed to your bizarre expectation that each of the top 7 prospects in this draft will bust (judging by your list of comparable players - which bares little resemblance to the actual players in question). May as well not pick at all, eh New Era? The next Chris Phillips... you're having a laugh.

It will be interesting to see. I don't agree with any of the comparisons. For example, Jones is a way better skater than Pronger ever was, but he doesn't think the game as well or play nearly as tough. I don't see the parallel. I don't see Lindholm playing like Forsberg. Forsberg loved to play in traffic and use his physical nature to his advantage. Lindholm uses the open ice and the big ice surface to his advantage. In the videos posted on this site and on youtube he's a big ice surface player, not at all like Forsberg. The comparisons just don't hold IMO.

We'll just have to wait and see. I think there are much better comparisons out there and I used the ones that came to mind when I watched the video of the players. I don't see that as being glass half full or half empty, its just the reaction to seeing the players and who they compare to. I think that is what these scouts and talk heads should be doing. Saying that this guy reminds them of this junior player when he was drafted, rather than an establish player who everyone has inflated expectations of. It would be nice to have someone look at Seth Jones and say that he reminds him of Gord Kluzak (or even Bryan Fogarty) rather than Chris Pronger. That would certainly temper expectations to a reasonable level.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by New Era

It will be interesting to see. I don't agree with any of the comparisons. For example, Jones is a way better skater than Pronger ever was, but he doesn't think the game as well or play nearly as tough. I don't see the parallel. I don't see Lindholm playing like Forsberg. Forsberg loved to play in traffic and use his physical nature to his advantage. Lindholm uses the open ice and the big ice surface to his advantage. In the videos posted on this site and on youtube he's a big ice surface player, not at all like Forsberg. The comparisons just don't hold IMO.

We'll just have to wait and see. I think there are much better comparisons out there and I used the ones that came to mind when I watched the video of the players. I don't see that as being glass half full or half empty, its just the reaction to seeing the players and who they compare to. I think that is what these scouts and talk heads should be doing. Saying that this guy reminds them of this junior player when he was drafted, rather than an establish player who everyone has inflated expectations of. It would be nice to have someone look at Seth Jones and say that he reminds him of Gord Kluzak (or even Bryan Fogarty) rather than Chris Pronger. That would certainly temper expectations to a reasonable level.

My favourite aspect of Forsberg was his play along the boards, drawing defenders to him, dangling them & setting up his various skilled linemates. That's where I see resemblances in Lindholm. Is it true that Lindholm is the highest scoring rooking in the Elitserien since Mats Sundin & Forsberg? Insane. His skating stride looks similar & he is not afraid to play physically along the boards. He will be the same height by the time he comes over. People can certainly be excused for the comparison. The Avalanche-era Peter Forsberg might be the player I most wish to see reincarnated & given a Flaming C.

I personally agree with you that I don't see much of Pronger in Seth Jones. I would almost compare him to Bouwmeester when he was drafted. All the scouts are incredibly excited about him, so I guess they see a lot more upside.

I would also agree that Barkov reminds me of Olli Jokinen (when he was drafted), but Olli had tremendous upside. If Barkov has a bit more 'upstairs' than Olli he should become the player Jokinen was supposed to become.

Your Tavares/Mackinnon is voided with one word: speed.

Drouin/Giroux: nailed.

Nichushkin is an unknown quantity to me, but my greatest fear in picking him would be that he would become Andrei Nazarov. <------ how can anyone call me glass-completely-full?!

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

I would also agree that Barkov reminds me of Olli Jokinen (when he was drafted), but Olli had tremendous upside. If Barkov has a bit more 'upstairs' than Olli he should become the player Jokinen was supposed to become.

Not going to comment on other comparisons but this just doesn´t do justice to Barkov. He is like 10 years ahead of OJ in his two way game and also offensively ahead of him- Jokinen didn´t even play in SM-liiga until he was 18 while Barkov has been been playing since 16. Jokinen wasn´t even close to Barkov as a prospect.

[PeteMoss]

If Portland and Halifax can continue on their playoff success I imagine their game in Memorial Cup would have a ton of viewers in Calgary.

[H2SO4(aq)]

Originally Posted by New Era

Those comparables are a joke to be honest. Those guys are seven future hall of famers? Not a chance. I bet at least two of them bust and two more turn into middling players. More realistic comparables:

Jones - Chris Phillips - same type of hype surrounded Phillips
Mackinnon - John Tavares - more finisher than setup man
Drouin - Claude Giroux - good offensive player but not a complete game
Barkov - Ollie Jokinen - was ahead of his peers because of his size and style but was more of an early bloomer than anything
Nichushkin - Alexandr Svitov - his size and skill had scouts drooling, but he couldn't live up to the promise as his size was neutralized
Lindholm - Kristian Huselius - a player who looked great on the big sheet but had to learn to play in traffic
Monahan - Kyle Turris - more hype than he deserves or could live up to

Giroux is about as close to a complete player as youll get. I think the only players i would put above him are Crosby, Toews, Malkin.

If you've seen Lindholm you'd know he is nothing like Huselius. Juice doesn't hit (once went something like 50 games without recording a single one), Lindholm is all over the ice and likes taking the body.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by Saqe

Not going to comment on other comparisons but this just doesn´t do justice to Barkov. He is like 10 years ahead of OJ in his two way game and also offensively ahead of him- Jokinen didn´t even play in SM-liiga until he was 18 while Barkov has been been playing since 16. Jokinen wasn´t even close to Barkov as a prospect.

Olli was very, very highly thought-of in his draft year. Overly so. Barkov definitely has the potential to exceed Olli in every way.

[Teroy]

My Choices

Win Lottery
Nathan MacKinnon Ht/Wt: 6' 0"/185 lbs Pos: C Team: Halifax (QMJHL)
..............2012-2013 QMJHL GP G A PTS PIM
.......................................44 32 43 75 45

Draft 2nd or 3rd
MacKinnon, Drouin or Jones

Draft 4th
Darnell Nurse Ht/Wt: 6' 3"/185 lbs Pos: D Team: Sault Ste. Marie Greyhound(OHL)
..................2012-2013 OHL GP G A PTS PIM
.......................................68 12 29 41 116

St. Louis draft choice:
Kerby Rychel Ht/Wt: 5' 11"/175 lbs Pos: C Team: Windsor (OHL)
.................2012-2013 OHL GP G A PTS PIM
.......................................68 40 47 87 94

Pittsburgh draft choice:
If we drafted Nurse then:
Morgan Klimchuk Ht/Wt: 6' 1"/200 lbs Pos: C Team: Regina Pats (WHL)
.................2012-2013 WHL GP G A PTS PIM
.......................................72 36 40 76 20

OR

If we didn’t draft Nurse then:
Josh Morressey Ht/Wt: 6’/185 lbs Pos: D Team: Prince Albert (WHL)
.................2012-2013 WHL GP G A PTS PIM
.......................................70 15 32 47 91

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

Olli was very, very highly thought-of in his draftyear. Overly so. Barkov definitely has the potential to exceed Olli in every way.

Yeah I remember, makes me wonder was it not a very good draft year or what. But it´s not an over evaluation to say Barkov is years ahead of Olli. OJ also was a complete douchbag when he was younger until Keenan got the best out of him in Florida. I remember the nickname Pumpkinhead that Rob Blake gave in LA... probably fitted both descriptions of his character and actual shape of his head.

[devo22]

Let's also not forget that Barkov is one of the youngest players in the draft, only turning 18 in September. Jokinen was 9 months older when he was drafted, and still Barkov (21+27 in 53 games) had better numbers than Jokinen (14+27 in 50 games) in the SM-liiga in their draft years and is arguably a more complete player than Jokinen was at that time.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by devo22

Let's also not forget that Barkov is one of the youngest players in the draft, only turning 18 in September. Jokinen was 9 months older when he was drafted, and still Barkov (21+27 in 53 games) had better numbers than Jokinen (14+27 in 50 games) in the SM-liiga in their draft years and is arguably a more complete player than Jokinen was at that time.

Hot damn... Impressive goal totals. Is it likely that he's still growing?

[PeteMoss]

If he turns out to be Jokinen is it really that bad? You'd obviously prefer his career to not start as brutal as Jokinen's but he had seven 20 goal seasons and peaked at 39 goals and 91 points.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Touched on by another poster.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

Jones - Chris Phillips - same type of hype surrounded Phillips

Phillips was in a much worse draft year. And Jones is more hyped. I can see why people don't like a Pronger comparison because Pronger had a mean streak and Jones doesn't. But Phillips is a much worse comparable as Jones is bigger, faster, better puck handler, better shooter, better at impacting/dominating a game. I don't see the Phillips comparison at all. You could say Bouwmeester but Jones has a much better one timer and slapshot than Bouw. You could say Niedermayer but Jones is bigger and has a better shot.

There is no perfect comparable for Jones. He's a petty special and unique prospect. I think the Pronger comparison is closer than the Phillips one because he has similar size, puckhandling and shooting to Pronger.

Overall your comparisons were as flawed or moreso than the more optimistic ones. You failed to compare these prospects to players of a similar style of game.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Phillips was in a much worse draft year. And Jones is more hyped. I can see why people don't like a Pronger comparison because Pronger had a mean streak and Jones doesn't. But Phillips is a much worse comparable as Jones is bigger, faster, better puck handler, better shooter, better at impacting/dominating a game. I don't see the Phillips comparison at all. You could say Bouwmeester but Jones has a much better one timer and slapshot than Bouw. You could say Niedermayer but Jones is bigger and has a better shot.

There is no perfect comparable for Jones. He's a petty special and unique prospect. I think the Pronger comparison is closer than the Phillips one because he has similar size, puckhandling and shooting to Pronger.

Overall your comparisons were as flawed or moreso than the more optimistic ones. You failed to compare these prospects to players of a similar style of game.

Erik Johnson?

Close but Jones offensive upside was probably higher at the time of the draft.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

If he turns out to be Jokinen is it really that bad?

Not really. Jokinen with better hockey sense and more leadership is a really good player in my books.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Erik Johnson?

Jones is just much more dominant offensively than Johnson. Jones can lead the rush up the ice ala Bouw, Brodie, Niedermayer, etc and is a real threat on the power play with his passing, shooting and mobility. Don't see the same offensive skill from Johnson IMO.

[azzarish]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

If the season ended today they'd pick 3rd. This wacky pessimism about all these teams never winning again is odd. Sure it could happen, but its not like 6 games losing streaks happen that often in the NHL... let alone 4 teams doing it at once (and Nashville losing 11 straight).

A lot of the teams down there have dropped many games in a row though. They might a win 1 or 2 here or there, but the biggest concern is how many teams have been sucked in at the bottom.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Phillips was in a much worse draft year. And Jones is more hyped. I can see why people don't like a Pronger comparison because Pronger had a mean streak and Jones doesn't. But Phillips is a much worse comparable as Jones is bigger, faster, better puck handler, better shooter, better at impacting/dominating a game. I don't see the Phillips comparison at all. You could say Bouwmeester but Jones has a much better one timer and slapshot than Bouw. You could say Niedermayer but Jones is bigger and has a better shot.

There is no perfect comparable for Jones. He's a petty special and unique prospect. I think the Pronger comparison is closer than the Phillips one because he has similar size, puckhandling and shooting to Pronger.

Those are fair comments. Jones is pretty unique and is tough to compare to anyone. I don't see a comparable. The one guy that really comes to mind is Gord Kluzak, who was really hyped as being the next great thing on the blueline when he was drafted. The guy had size and a ton of skill. Too bad injuries snuffed his career out.

Overall your comparisons were as flawed or moreso than the more optimistic ones. You failed to compare these prospects to players of a similar style of game.

Who would you compare these players to, because when I've seen them (admittedly some of them only on compilation videos) the players I mentioned are the ones that come to mind. I'd be interested to hear who you would compare them to, because I just don't see any comparison between these kids and the players suggested, even in playing style. Please share your observations.