Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Wolven

I am not sure that I would agree that the Avs have 3 Elite centers but I understand what you mean that having an elite center doesn't automatically mean the team can suddenly run for the Cup.

However, the argument is still there that if you look at the teams that do win the cup, they all have an Elite center. They also all have an Elite #1D and a strong goalie as well as enough player depth to survive injuries.

The problem is that of those components that a team needs to win, the hardest one to get seem to be the elite center. Wingers, Dmen and Goalies all seem to become more available in either the UFA or trade markets or with non-top5 draft picks.

If you think goalies and dman are that easily available, you are in for a surprise the next few years! The 1997-2003 taught me never take a consistant, starting G for granted. Or ask Flyers fans that.

Not saying not to draft McKinnon, but IMO No 1 C is just as hard to draft as No 1 D. As for goalies, just trade for them... not easy but possible. (Bernier? Offer sheet him) Skill wingers are the easiest to get, but power forward wingers are almost as hard and I'd argue a big strong elite power forward (i'm not talking about someone like Ryan Clowe, but more Iginla in his prime) is more rare then a No 1 C.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

If you think goalies and dman are that easily available, you are in for a surprise the next few years! The 1997-2003 taught me never take a consistant, starting G for granted. Or ask Flyers fans that.

I agree completely. I dread the day that Kipper retires and I really hope that reports of him doing so at the end of this season are false.

My point was more that teams that have won the cup over the last decade or so have not all had elite goalies. A number of teams have compensated for having just a "good" or even "average" goalie.

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

Not saying not to draft McKinnon, but IMO No 1 C is just as hard to draft as No 1 D. As for goalies, just trade for them... not easy but possible. (Bernier? Offer sheet him) Skill wingers are the easiest to get, but power forward wingers are almost as hard and I'd argue a big strong elite power forward (i'm not talking about someone like Ryan Clowe, but more Iginla in his prime) is more rare then a No 1 C.

#1D seem to be more available than #1C outside of the draft. It also seems to be more likely to acquire a #1D outside of the top5 (or even outside of the first round).

With those things in mind, it seems that much more important to use our top5 pick to acquire a #1C over anything else while we have the chance to do so.

[SuperMatt18]

There tends to be certain ways to acquire players, elite center does seem to be the most restricted though.

Elite Center: Top 5 Pick- Never Traded
#1 Dman: Top 45 pick- Rarely Traded- Sometimes reach UFA
Elite Power Forward- Rare in General- Tend to take longer to develop
Scoring Winger- More readily available through draft/trades/FA
Goalie- Hard to draft, long development cycle, easiest way to acquire is through trade.

In my opinion I want the Elite Center because that is the one position that you almost need to draft with a top 5 pick. You just don't see them acquired any other way. The true elite centers (Crosby, Stamkos, Malkin, Backstrom, Tavares, Toews, Staal, Sedin, Thornton) are drafted in the top 5, don't hit UFA, and don't get traded. The only year that is the exception to this rule was 2003, as that year good centers went later in the draft.

Other years you can get good centers later on in draft, but you never seem to be able to get great centers outside of the top 5.

Really it all comes down to development curves.

Goalies are by far the latest on the development curve and usually are not impact players until they are into their 2nd or 3rd contract. They just tend to take longer to develop and I wonder if it has to do with goalies not usually becoming "goalies" until later in the development curve. Would be interesting to investigate to see but it really seems like goalies really peak on their second team.

Defenseman are middle of the pack in the development curve. They tend to take longer than forwards to become true impact guys and it seems like the most important years of development for a d-man are when he is 19/20. Hard to gauge d-men at 18 for this reason, they tend to make the biggest steps in their development later in the cycle it is why you find more impact dmen late in the first round and into the second round.

Forwards tend to be the earliest in the development curve. Stats show that forwards goalscoring peaks around the age of 24 and they really hit their primes earlier than the majority of players. They tend to be the deepest in their development and with the way drafting has evolved in the last 10 years you tend to have a better idea of what you are getting when you draft a forward.

The later the development curve the harder it is to project what they will be like as an 18 year old, and the easier it is to find players later in the draft that may end up developing into a top tier talent.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

If you think goalies and dman are that easily available, you are in for a surprise the next few years! The 1997-2003 taught me never take a consistant, starting G for granted. Or ask Flyers fans that.

Not saying not to draft McKinnon, but IMO No 1 C is just as hard to draft as No 1 D. As for goalies, just trade for them... not easy but possible. (Bernier? Offer sheet him) Skill wingers are the easiest to get, but power forward wingers are almost as hard and I'd argue a big strong elite power forward (i'm not talking about someone like Ryan Clowe, but more Iginla in his prime) is more rare then a No 1 C.

You can still find defensemen easier later in the draft like Brodie for instance. When is the last time the Flames have drafted a forward that has played as well as he has in any round? Giordano was a free agent as is Chris Breen. A lot of the best defenseman in the league weren't even drafted in the 1st round like Keith, Weber, etc but how many elite centers in this league were drafted outside of the top 10 of the draft. Not nearly as many.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

You can still find defensemen easier later in the draft like Brodie for instance. When is the last time the Flames have drafted a forward that has played as well as he has in any round? Giordano was a free agent as is Chris Breen. A lot of the best defenseman in the league weren't even drafted in the 1st round like Keith, Weber, etc but how many elite centers in this league were drafted outside of the top 10 of the draft. Not nearly as many.

All of that is 100% bang on.

The only thing that makes me wonder is exactly how good Jones will be. People are talking about him as being the best defensive prospect in 10 years. I have my doubts.. but having that horse in your stable can sure be something.

I do hope for a center though - you can't rely on teams giving up a Thornton.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

All of that is 100% bang on.

The only thing that makes me wonder is exactly how good Jones will be. People are talking about him as being the best defensive prospect in 10 years. I have my doubts.. but having that horse in your stable can sure be something.

I do hope for a center though - you can't rely on teams giving up a Thornton.

But they did happen, didn't they?

Thornton to San Jose, LA picked up 2 in Mike Richards and Jeff Carter, Colorado has 3 (just saying 3 cause many here seem to think the 3rd, ROR, is a No 1 C)....

Brodie is not a No 1 D... I think he can be top pairing, but not No 1 D. I'm talking Chris Pronger, Lidstrom, Scott Niedermayer class. There are only every 5-10 of them in the league... of coarse Pronger got traded a ton of times too.

Again, numbers still haven't convinced me that unless there really is a split, why any team should ever deviate from drafting BPA to draft for position. Unless its a goalie.

[skunt]

I prefer Barkov. He's being compared to Anze Kopitar. How often is a big, all-weather centre available? Thornton, Getzlaf, Kopitar... maybe Koivu, Backes and Lecavalier. Note that all those guys except Thornton look like good bets to finish their careers with the team that drafted them.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

Brodie is not a No 1 D... I think he can be top pairing, but not No 1 D. I'm talking Chris Pronger, Lidstrom, Scott Niedermayer class. There are only every 5-10 of them in the league... of coarse Pronger got traded a ton of times too.

The thing is that some of the best defensemen of the last decade were drafter outside of that Top 5-10 draft position. Lidstrom was 53rd, Keith was 54th, Chara was 56th, Gonchar was 14th, Webber was 49th.

When's the last time a franchise centerman was drafted in the 2nd round? It just doesn't really happen that often (or at all)...there's nobody that comes close to a Crosby type outside of the Top 5. #1 Defensemen on the other hand seem to pop up quite often later on. Outside of goalies, I think they can be the biggest enigmas.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by skunt

I prefer Barkov. He's being compared to Anze Kopitar. How often is a big, all-weather centre available? Thornton, Getzlaf, Kopitar... maybe Koivu, Backes and Lecavalier. Note that all those guys except Thornton look like good bets to finish their careers with the team that drafted them.

I think it's awesome there is two elite centres in the top 4 so we have some wiggle room when and if things go sideways near the end of the season with teams tanking, or draft day swaping picks craziness

[Captain_Obvious]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

Again, numbers still haven't convinced me that unless there really is a split, why any team should ever deviate from drafting BPA to draft for position. Unless its a goalie.

You say this like the best player available is a known variable.

It's far from it. If the choice comes up and two players are close, you go with the potential franchise centre every time. Especially considering our situation and recent past.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Captain_Obvious

You say this like the best player available is a known variable.

It's far from it. If the choice comes up and two players are close, you go with the potential franchise centre every time. Especially considering our situation and recent past.

You'd think a Captain Obvious would notice that I said:

Again, numbers still haven't convinced me that unless there really is a split, why any team should ever deviate from drafting BPA to draft for position. Unless its a goalie.

[calgARI]

Originally Posted by Table 5

The thing is that some of the best defensemen of the last decade were drafter outside of that Top 5-10 draft position. Lidstrom was 53rd, Keith was 54th, Chara was 56th, Gonchar was 14th, Webber was 49th.

When's the last time a franchise centerman was drafted in the 2nd round? It just doesn't really happen that often (or at all)...there's nobody that comes close to a Crosby type outside of the Top 5. #1 Defensemen on the other hand seem to pop up quite often later on. Outside of goalies, I think they can be the biggest enigmas.

Great point on D that sure looks a lot like the track record of taking goaltenders in the first round. Forwards picked high seem to work out a whole lot more than D and goaltenders.

[Captain_Obvious]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

You'd think a Captain Obvious would notice that I said:

Again, numbers still haven't convinced me that unless there really is a split, why any team should ever deviate from drafting BPA to draft for position. Unless its a goalie.

And in the spirit of obviousness, there doesn't appear to be a split this year at all, which is what this thread and discussion is about.

But thanks for the huge bolded underlined text. Cool stuff.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Table 5

The thing is that some of the best defensemen of the last decade were drafter outside of that Top 5-10 draft position. Lidstrom was 53rd, Keith was 54th, Chara was 56th, Gonchar was 14th, Webber was 49th.

When's the last time a franchise centerman was drafted in the 2nd round? It just doesn't really happen that often (or at all)...there's nobody that comes close to a Crosby type outside of the Top 5. #1 Defensemen on the other hand seem to pop up quite often later on. Outside of goalies, I think they can be the biggest enigmas.

The problem with this is you are a counting a much wider net for defenseman than the centres. You are limited the centres to the elite of the elite and expanding the defense to add guys like Gonchar.

[bax]

I can see us taking Nicholas Petan with our second first round pick. Kid has Feaster written all over him. High hockey IQ, great vision, putting up massive numbers in the dub, and undersized.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

The problem with this is you are a counting a much wider net for defenseman than the centres. You are limited the centres to the elite of the elite and expanding the defense to add guys like Gonchar.

Gonchar has 700 points in 1100 games. You don't consider that to be elite for a d-man?

But fine, take him out of my list....he's the highest selection anyway and was the closest to working against my argument.

[Reggie28]

Is the Pitt. pick based on regular season standings, or playoff result?

[Canada 02]

Originally Posted by Reggie28

Is the Pitt. pick based on regular season standings, or playoff result?

both

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Table 5

The thing is that some of the best defensemen of the last decade were drafter outside of that Top 5-10 draft position. Lidstrom was 53rd, Keith was 54th, Chara was 56th, Gonchar was 14th, Webber was 49th.

When's the last time a franchise centerman was drafted in the 2nd round? It just doesn't really happen that often (or at all)...there's nobody that comes close to a Crosby type outside of the Top 5. #1 Defensemen on the other hand seem to pop up quite often later on. Outside of goalies, I think they can be the biggest enigmas.

I'll accept Shea Weber, but Gonchar?

Yes other top dman come outside the top 10. But if your scouts really think Seth Jones is the next Chris Pronger, even if MacKinnon is Jonathan Towes, would you really pass on Seth Jones? History might not be so kind of the Erik Johnsson's (weak draft year) but that doesn't mean that Seth Jones will bust.

Also, usually forwards develop at a higher % then D, but look at the forwards the Flames have developed, then look at the D. Which position has the Flames yielded better success?

Honestly I'm just saying I wouldn't be disappointed with whoever they select. Like everyone else, I hope we get MacKinnon, but I would not be sad at all if we got Seth Jones; also, if we're drafting 3rd and your scouts like Druoin over Barkov, take Druoin.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Reggie28

Is the Pitt. pick based on regular season standings, or playoff result?

Yes.

Both the St Louis and Pittsburgh picks are based on their standings in the regular season, but the 27-30 picks are reserved for the Conference finalists in the playoffs, with 29 going to the Stanley Cup runner-up, and 30 going to the Champ.

For example, last year, Vancouver won the President's Trophy and picked 26th. The Coyotes picked 27th; the Rangers, 28th; the Devils, 29th; and the Kings picked 30th.