Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[handgroen]

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

I have pointed this out before but I don't know how the Flames can pass on MacKinnon (or Barkov) for Jones or Drouin

Crosby (1st)
Stamkos (1st)
Tavares (1st)
Staal (2nd)
Malkin (2nd)
Sedin (3rd)
Toews (3rd)
Backstrom (4th)
Getzlaf (19th)
Giroux (22nd)
Datsyuk (171st)

Those are the top 10 scoring centers in the league (plus Malkin) and their draft position

arguably the 11 best centers in the league as well (Kopitar probably being the biggest omission)

Center is not the place where "Elite" gems fall through, sure you can get good 2nd line centers later on, or you may hit the jackpot with a Datsyuk in round 6 or 7

but generally the elite centers are gone by the 5th pick in the draft

the elite d men are not, it seems to be a harder position to scout

from a Canucks perspective, I hope the Flames end up with Drouin, wingers seem to be one of the easiest position to find top end guys later in the draft, through trade, or through FA

The guy I don't want to see with the Flames (or the Avs) is MacKinnon

no one gives up on top line centers easily, they will overpay to keep them so you need to draft them, everyone on that list I posted above is still with their original team, and have contracts to keep them that way through their prime

Considerate well thought out and insightful post, the fact that you're a canucks fan is truly mind bottling

[cannon7]

On the Mackinnon vs. Drouin debate, does anyone else see the 30 point production difference between Drouin and Mackinnon as a red flag? Also, the fact that Drouin's points production has skyrocketed while Mackinnon's has remained relatively flat in the past couple years? Conventional wisdom is that you want to be signifigant gains year after year in juniors. There are exceptions to that rule, obviously.

[FlamesAddiction]

Am I the only one who thinks MacKinnon might be overrated because of the phenom label he had before major junior? The fact the gap between him and several other players has closed makes me wonder how much more this will continue in the next couple of years

[Husky]

Originally Posted by cannon7

On the Mackinnon vs. Drouin debate, does anyone else see the 30 point production difference between Drouin and Mackinnon as a red flag? Also, the fact that Drouin's points production has skyrocketed while Mackinnon's has remained relatively flat in the past couple years? Conventional wisdom is that you want to be signifigant gains year after year in juniors. There are exceptions to that rule, obviously.

I dont see it as an issue. Mackinnin package looks to be much more transferable to the NHL while maintaining the same level of play.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Highly doubt it...

1: At this point the Flames have just one game in hand on the teams near them in the standing with only Colorado having two.

2: If young enthusiasm counted for anything the Oilers would be winning the Cup not looking forward to hitting the links.

3: If pride factors in at all if Kipper hasn't had much pride for the rest of the season he isn't going to develop any extra now.


All that being said it isn't completely out of the realm of possibility that the Flames do draft as low as 5th... Carolina is just two points up on the Flames right now and a 3 point swing (Carolina currently owns the tie-breaker) in 9 games isn't impossible, unlikely but not impossible (SportsClubStats lists the percentile chance that the Flames finish 27th as 17%... 67% to finish 28-30). The Tampa Bay swing would be 5 points which is really unrealistic with so few games remaining.

If the Flames were to finish 4th from the bottom then there would exist a roughly 31% chance that a team below them wins the draft lottory and knocks us down a slot. so take that 17% provided by SportsClubStats and multiple it by 0.31 (Draft Lottory odds of those behind a theorhetical 27th place Flames team) and you get a 5.27-7.30% chance that the Flames draft 5th (the 7.3% is roughtly the odds that the Flames finish 26th less their odds of winning the lottory). The odds on 6th are obviously even less then that.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

There's still plenty of time for the standings to change so I'm not counting on a bottom 4 finish until the season ends.

[3 Justin 3]

Originally Posted by cannon7

On the Mackinnon vs. Drouin debate, does anyone else see the 30 point production difference between Drouin and Mackinnon as a red flag? Also, the fact that Drouin's points production has skyrocketed while Mackinnon's has remained relatively flat in the past couple years? Conventional wisdom is that you want to be signifigant gains year after year in juniors. There are exceptions to that rule, obviously.

Him and Drouin are tied for points in the playoffs. I just think the transition to the NHL will be much better for MacKinnon, aka he'll do better in the NHL.

It's why I like Barkov so much, though his highlights aren't earth shattering, their good hockey plays. The kind of plays that transfer to the NHL, not the "make the defender look like a pylon" which most of the time doesn't.

[azzarish]

Originally Posted by _Q_

So 2014 1st + 2013 St. Louis 1st + Baertschi + one of Cammalleri/Tanguay/Stajan/Stempniak for a top 5 pick?

Would anyone do that?

I would.

I would not do that at all. That's massive overpayment. I wouldn't deal away Baertschi in any circumstance. You've got a player here that's got a good ceiling and if we don't take the time developing him what's the point of this rebuild?

Realistically, we don't know what's going to happen until draft day itself. We might have a good idea of which teams will draft which players in the top 3, but there is no guarantee they will. Us winning the draft lottery and trading our #1 overall for Colorado's #2 overall would be about the closest thing to certainty of getting MacKinnon or Drouin. But even that is dependent on Colorado finishing 30th, is it not? If Colorado wants Seth Jones, which seems to be the word on the street, and they draft anywhere in the top 5, we can trade them our #1 overall if we won the lottery. But we don't know who Florida or Carolina are looking at.

To be honest, I wouldn't look at trading our top 5 for anything less that what I've said above. If anything we might trade our St. Louis 1st round (mid-pick) + another player to move up in the draft, so we have a crack at picking 2 players in the top 10. If we want to see the results of a rebuild much quicker than everyone wants we might have to get 2 'franchise' players in this draft. With 3 first round picks we've got the leeway to maneuovre that kind of a result. With a draft this deep its a good possibility that 2 picks in the top 10 will go on to be elite players in the NHL, and form major cogs of our team for the next 5-10 years

[Erick Estrada]

Barkove to me is worst case scenario with the Flames dropping out of the top 3. I don't think he's in the same class as Mackinnon or Drouin. I just hope Flames and their scouting staff make the right pick and don't try and outsmart everyone else by taking a 4-8th ranked player with a top 3 pick.

[TurdFerguson]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Am I the only one who thinks MacKinnon might be overrated because of the phenom label he had before major junior? The fact the gap between him and several other players has closed makes me wonder how much more this will continue in the next couple of years

It's an interesting consideration. MacKinnon has been "the guy" (along with Jones) for the better part of two years. Just like we are hear all about McDavid now and he is still 2 years out.

Being that he has been so highly regarded for so long is a good thing. More people have been paying closer attention to him for a longer period of time. That makes me feel better about scouting reports on him, when compared to a relative late jumped (not suggesting Drouin is) who maybe only has 6 months or 1 year of real intense scouting (and the pressure that comes with it).

In terms of McKinnon’s production vs. Drouin ...hard to tell. Some injury time in there but still the gap is meaningful. Is it a case of MacKinnon getting worse, staying the same or just being passed? I tend to think that, if anything, its Drouins large step forward this season as opposed to a step back from MacKinnon.

In the end, they play a very different style of game and pts are not the best indicator. Drouin is pure skill, I would expect him to be a high production guy (especially in a major junior league), and MacKinnon is a generator (not the same as a playmaker) and brings a different value proposition to his game.

It’s like comparing Tavares and P. Kane for me (whom I believe are reasonable comparable). Both are elite players in their own way but it's very hard to put them side by side and say "I want him over him".

[Sutter4Mayor]

I think that this is the most pages I've ever read from a thread. Just wanted to thank everyone for their thoughtful posts! I've really learned a lot about certain prospects. I'm pumped up for this draft!

And I really hope the Flames can somehow land MacKinnon!

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Muta

What if we went for Drouin, and then Frederick Gauthier with the St. Louis pick?

Elite winger, BIG center.

I'd be cool with that.

I would definitely rather see the Flames coming out of the draft with an ELITE center above all else. We just had a decade and a half of having a team with an elite winger and a non-elite center and it was frustrating constantly praying for an elite center to show up.

MacKinnon + Zykov > Drouin + Gauthier

Originally Posted by cannon7

On the Mackinnon vs. Drouin debate, does anyone else see the 30 point production difference between Drouin and Mackinnon as a red flag? Also, the fact that Drouin's points production has skyrocketed while Mackinnon's has remained relatively flat in the past couple years?

Since MacKinnon was producing at a high pace before Drouin showed up, I would guess that Drouin's success as a high scoring winger is probably impacted by MacKinnon being a successful center. Drouin's production went up 20% when he started playing with MacKinnon. That could be as much an indication of MacKinnon's ability to make other's better as it is an indication of Drouin's growth as a scoring winger.

[handgroen]

Originally Posted by TurdFerguson

It’s like comparing Tavares and P. Kane for me (whom I believe are reasonable comparable). Both are elite players in their own way but it's very hard to put them side by side and say "I want him over him".

i get your point... but you could put them side by side and say "which one do you want"
and by the time your done your sentence tavares is in a flames jersey and kane has mugged a cabby.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Am I the only one who thinks MacKinnon might be overrated because of the phenom label he had before major junior?

If you're not the only one then you're one of the only ones.

MacKinnon is the real deal. Just watch him.

People tried to use this argument against Tavares in his draft year. Tavares has turned out just fine.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Wolven

I would definitely rather see the Flames coming out of the draft with an ELITE center above all else. We just had a decade and a half of having a team with an elite winger and a non-elite center and it was frustrating constantly praying for an elite center to show up..

Well the team we are chasing for 1st overall, Colorado, has three No 1 C's. How are they doing?

You need a mix of all positions. Good C, good power winger, good skill winger, No 1 D, starting G. Outside of the skill winger, we're missing all of those. If we're picking 3rd and Drouin is there, go with Drouin.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

Well the team we are chasing for 1st overall, Colorado, has three No 1 C's. How are they doing?

You need a mix of all positions. Good C, good power winger, good skill winger, No 1 D, starting G. Outside of the skill winger, we're missing all of those. If we're picking 3rd and Drouin is there, go with Drouin.

Think you need to look at the positions that are usually the hardest to fill outside of the top 5 draft picks, and that is clearly first line centers.

If a player is clearly better (Drouin> Barkov/Lindholm) then you should take the clearly better player, but if the players are equal (Drouin=Mackinnon) then you should take the center.

I also think you could probably take that exact Avalanche team with a better coach and they are likely a playoff team. Sacco is just a bad coach and I expect a Montreal like turnaround from them next year.

[Dagger]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

Well the team we are chasing for 1st overall, Colorado, has three No 1 C's. How are they doing?

You need a mix of all positions. Good C, good power winger, good skill winger, No 1 D, starting G. Outside of the skill winger, we're missing all of those. If we're picking 3rd and Drouin is there, go with Drouin.

To be fair, Colorado might have 2 first line centres, but neither of them are true franchise centres. Duchene can rack up points, but he can't take over a game. ROR can get 70 points but he's more of a support guy. Landeskog might become a Mike Richards type, but as you see with him he's best when surrounded by very talented players and he can supply a mix of offense and grit.

Mackinnon can be a franchise player. He's a far better prospect than Duchene.

I agree with you that you need a good mix, and in general that we need to go BPA, but I do think that if Drouin and Mackinnon are neck and neck that the tie goes to the centre based on historical evidence of where franchise centres are found in comparison to franchise wingers.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by fotze

Points are obviously important but just as important and ten times harder to guage is the ability to translate that to the NHL. The CHL is littered with high point producers that could not quite put up the same numbers at the NHL level.

Byron Ritchie, Len Barrie and to a lesser extend Rob Brown, Crazy points in junior.

Look at our own Jarome Iginla (oh ya not our anymore) last junior year, 12 points less in the same games as his teammate Hnat Domenichelli.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/l...009951996.html
(Weird sidenote, did not know Ryan Rishaug played on Iggy's team)

Top scorers in 1996. You can see, only 1 of those players was able to translate it.
1. Mark Deyell - 159
2. Frank Banham - 152
3. Hnat Domenichelli - 148
4. Jarome Iginla - 136
5. Rob Gordon - 114
6. Josh Holden - 112
7. Mike LeClerc - 111
8. Clarke Wilm - 110
9. Peter Schaefer - 108
10. Marty Flichel - 107

Bit of a flawed metic to only use point and not factor in age - run a top scorers list by draft eligible status.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Wolven

I would definitely rather see the Flames coming out of the draft with an ELITE center above all else. We just had a decade and a half of having a team with an elite winger and a non-elite center and it was frustrating constantly praying for an elite center to show up.

MacKinnon + Zykov > Drouin + Gauthier



Since MacKinnon was producing at a high pace before Drouin showed up, I would guess that Drouin's success as a high scoring winger is probably impacted by MacKinnon being a successful center. Drouin's production went up 20% when he started playing with MacKinnon. That could be as much an indication of MacKinnon's ability to make other's better as it is an indication of Drouin's growth as a scoring winger.

I get what you are saying, and I myself hope for MacKinnon, but when MacKinnon was out, Drouin's point production actually increased as well. Drouin wasn't playing as many minutes and in as many situations until he started playing with MacKinnon. Drouin is 'the real deal' skill wise. It really is tough to rank either one ahead of the other at this point.

A team should always draft BPA, and if there are times when an organization ends up splitting hairs between prospects, then they should pick by position - a rare luxury in a draft. So, the consensus SHOULD be on MacKinnon.. but then you have to factor in that Drouin played center up until this year.

I really think that at this point, the Flames have their list, and all that is left to do is the combine/interviews and so on to see who they feel the most comfortable with.

I keep thinking that with MacKinnon's speed and motor, plus his skills - should be the wise pick. Then you think of how important and dominating an elite defencemen is out on the ice for (30 minutes a game almost) and that makes sense. Then you think of all the skill and astounding IQ a guy like Drouin can bring to a franchise (and still play center) and you hop on his bandwagon. Then you think of Barkov and his size, maturity, two-way play and that he is a center - you can hop on his bandwagon.

I myself keep flip-flopping the more I hear and see them. They are all awesome, with potential franchise player statuses. Each brings different aspects to an organization, and each can be real difference makers out there. I can't remember another draft where they had this many 'possibilities' as 1st or 2nd selections. I put Nichushkin right in the mix as well, and he may very well end up being the best player out of all of them - but that KHL contract scares me.

It will be really curious to see how the draft goes from 1-8 this year, and probably more than any other year in recent memory.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

Well the team we are chasing for 1st overall, Colorado, has three No 1 C's. How are they doing?

You need a mix of all positions. Good C, good power winger, good skill winger, No 1 D, starting G. Outside of the skill winger, we're missing all of those. If we're picking 3rd and Drouin is there, go with Drouin.

I am not sure that I would agree that the Avs have 3 Elite centers but I understand what you mean that having an elite center doesn't automatically mean the team can suddenly run for the Cup.

However, the argument is still there that if you look at the teams that do win the cup, they all have an Elite center. They also all have an Elite #1D and a strong goalie as well as enough player depth to survive injuries.

The problem is that of those components that a team needs to win, the hardest one to get seem to be the elite center. Wingers, Dmen and Goalies all seem to become more available in either the UFA or trade markets or with non-top5 draft picks.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

So, the consensus SHOULD be on MacKinnon.. but then you have to factor in that Drouin played center up until this year.

I do like that about Drouin. If the Flames do end up with him then I would definitely hope that he can be converted back to playing center. Did he go back to playing center while MacKinnon was out?

That would be good info to have for the scouting report.