Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[Phanuthier]

Are people seriously shying away from Barkov because he's got size and likes to drive to the net?! I'd perfer someone who plays an NHL game then the dizzle dazzle of juniors that might not work in the NHL. (not that i'm an expert on any of these players; just take BPA)

[shutout]

Here is my plan for what we should do if we get the first overall draft pick.
I will preface this by saying I don’t think that we get it, and that I think there is more cosmic chance out there that the Oilers actually win the lottery and pick first for a fifth straight year. I think that all things considered that we will probably end up picking 4th or 5th in which case I am thinking that Barkov is the guy to take and if already gone then take Lindholm.
But should we win the lottery here are the steps that we should take in order of preference.

1. Trade the 2013 1st round pick and Chris Butler to Philadelphia for their 2013 1st round pick, Brayden Schenn, and Luke Schenn. Draft Lindholm or Monahan.
2. Trade the 2013 1st round pick to Philadelphia for their 2013 1st round pick and Sean Couturier. Draft Lindholm or Monahan.
3. Trade the 2013 1st round pick to Columbus for their 2013 1st round pick, Rangers 2013 1st round pick, the Kings 2013 1st round pick, and Boone Jenner. Draft Lindholm or Monahan.
4. Trade the 2013 1st round pick and our 2013 4th round pick to Colorado for their 2013 1st round pick, 2013 2nd round pick, and 2013 3rd round pick. Draft MacKinnon or Barkov.
5. Draft Seth Jones.

While I think that Drouin is more skilled than MacKinnon or Barkov I would draft MacKinnon or Barkov ahead of Drouin because I think that a centerman is a more skilled and highly sought after position. Easier to find complementary players on the flanks than up the middle. When was the last time a team won the cup when their best player was a winger?

While I think that Jones is the best prospect, the Flames have such a dearth of young talent that I think that you could use this opportunity to really stock up on young talent and create a base for the franchise to grow around in three years instead of building the base one player at a time every year for six years like the Oilers.

I am not sure which I prefer between MacKinnon and Barkov. They both have some things that are potential worrying points, and I like Lindholm I just don’t think he is as good. The difference between MacKinnon, Barkov, Lindholm, and Monahan might not be as great as what the extra talent brings in.

Just think about a team that has youth down the middle in a couple of years that is Schenn/Couturier – Lindholm/Monahan – Backlund. Easy to start plugging players on the flanks once you have depth down the middle. And for Jones I think that the Flyers or Blue Jackets will make those deals. With Jones being from Denver it is a given that the Avalanche would make that deal.

[Table 5]

We all love 1st round picks, especially this year. So if someone in the 7-14 range comes to you and offers you their 1st round pick straight up for Gaudreau, do you do it?

We all love watching this kid, but if he wins the Hobey, I doubt this stock will ever be higher....outside of him actually reaching his potential of course.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

Are people seriously shying away from Barkov because he's got size and likes to drive to the net?! I'd perfer someone who plays an NHL game then the dizzle dazzle of juniors that might not work in the NHL. (not that i'm an expert on any of these players; just take BPA)

I think most people are just expressing their opinion of MacKinnon > Barkov.

If MacKinnon is off the board when the Flames pick then Barkov is an excellent consolation prize. Either way the Flames need an answer for the #1C question.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Table 5

We all love 1st round picks, especially this year. So if someone in the 7-14 range comes to you and offers you their 1st round pick straight up for Gaudreau, do you do it?

7-14 is to big of a range. At #7 I say yes for sure but at #14 I say no for sure.

[Roof-Daddy]

I'm not asking for much out of this miserable pathetic season, and the fact that we have three first rounders. All I'm asking for is that we walk out of this mess with MacKinnon and Gauthier, and that they turn into better versions of Duchene and O'Reilly.

Not asking for much at all haha.

[Fire]

Originally Posted by Table 5

We all love 1st round picks, especially this year. So if someone in the 7-14 range comes to you and offers you their 1st round pick straight up for Gaudreau, do you do it?

We all love watching this kid, but if he wins the Hobey, I doubt this stock will ever be higher....outside of him actually reaching his potential of course.

7-14 is a pretty big range. I would do that for the 7th overall pick (Lindholm?) but not for a 14th overall pick

[shutout]

Or you can keep the top pick and try to do something like.

Package the Blues and Penguins picks with later round picks and second / third tier prospects to get another pick in the top 9. Would Columbus trade their 1st round pick for the Blues and Penguins first round picks?
Give them 4 first round picks all 15-30.
Gives you a chance at a Monahan, Lindholm or Nichushkin.
Along with either MacKinnon or Barkov.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Wolven

I think most people are just expressing their opinion of MacKinnon > Barkov.

If MacKinnon is off the board when the Flames pick then Barkov is an excellent consolation prize. Either way the Flames need an answer for the #1C question.

Yeah while I would love MacKinnon as well... would be happy if they took him 1st overall... just take BPA. Regardless of position. You never know what your org strengths are in 5 years.

[bax]

The more and more I read about Mackinnon, the more I want the Flames to draft him. He seems like a true guy to build a team around. I know we are going to be getting a good player regardless, but I will be a little disappointed if its not him

[#-3]

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

I have pointed this out before but I don't know how the Flames can pass on MacKinnon (or Barkov) for Jones or Drouin

Crosby (1st)
Stamkos (1st)
Tavares (1st)
Staal (2nd)
Malkin (2nd)
Sedin (3rd)
Toews (3rd)
Backstrom (4th)
Getzlaf (19th)
Giroux (22nd)
Datsyuk (171st)

Those are the top 10 scoring centers in the league (plus Malkin) and their draft position

arguably the 11 best centers in the league as well (Kopitar probably being the biggest omission)

Center is not the place where "Elite" gems fall through, sure you can get good 2nd line centers later on, or you may hit the jackpot with a Datsyuk in round 6 or 7

but generally the elite centers are gone by the 5th pick in the draft

the elite d men are not, it seems to be a harder position to scout

from a Canucks perspective, I hope the Flames end up with Drouin, wingers seem to be one of the easiest position to find top end guys later in the draft, through trade, or through FA

The guy I don't want to see with the Flames (or the Avs) is MacKinnon

no one gives up on top line centers easily, they will overpay to keep them so you need to draft them, everyone on that list I posted above is still with their original team, and have contracts to keep them that way through their prime

I Agree with your logic completely, your list shows the best centers in the league are usually a top 3 pick with the exception usally being a 15 - 60 pick.


Currently the best D in the leauge

Subban43Chara56Karalsson15Doughty2Keith54Weber49Suter7Pietrangelo4Gonchar14Letang62OEL6

My list may be a little differnt than some, but make your own and the trend stands, the majority of them are 15 - 60 picks that improved allot in the two years after being drafted. The rare exceptions are the top 3 picks.

I'm not sure what numbers on this are, but I think alot of the top wingers in the league are guys who were drafted as Centermen in the mid first round and converted to wing. Not a list of the best current guys but off the top of my head, Iginla, Tanguay, Cammaleri, Pavelski, Marleau, Sharp, all have been/are 1st line wingers that were listed as centers in their draft years.

And Goalies take so long to develope you don't know what your getting until years after the draft.

For that reason, If we can I would take

Cgy 1st: MacKinnon
Stl 1st: Big, Strong Skating, Center Like Gauthier
Pit 1st: Big D-man, I don't know enough about the group to say which one. Morin looks interesting at 6'7'', but beening ranked so low for a guy that size, the scouts probably know something. (although they were obviously all wrong with Chara).

[Dagger]

I don't think Columbus will trade their pick unless they're getting someone that can be apart of their core for the next 5 years. They're strength lies in their organizational depth, and giving them more picks in areas that good depth is found probably isn't enticing to them.

I think they wouldn't mind having a Cammalleri type though having said that. He'd instantly be a leader and provide a great 2nd line threat. Him and a first could be something they like. But then you have to consider whether you want our pick(and for arguments sake let's say it's a C) to be playing without a bonafide goal scorer and strong leader.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by shutout

Or you can keep the top pick and try to do something like.

Package the Blues and Penguins picks with later round picks and second / third tier prospects to get another pick in the top 9. Would Columbus trade their 1st round pick for the Blues and Penguins first round picks?
Give them 4 first round picks all 15-30.
Gives you a chance at a Monahan, Lindholm or Nichushkin.
Along with either MacKinnon or Barkov.

Why do posters think that Columbus would trade their 1st pick? If anything they would trade the other 2 picks to rise in the draft, or they would trade their other 2 picks for immediate help.

[SuperMatt18]

Only team that I thought would trade their first was Carolina, but that was when they were in the 7-10 range.

Now that they are in the top 5 there is no chance. I hope they go on a little streak here.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

If he drops to Edmonton, I bet they'll take him. I don't think it's that big a deal for them to risk that 1st rounder, since they've had high picks forever now. The lure of another potential high scoring forward will be too tempting for them to pass up, even though they need defence.

When I think about it, it makes more sense for the Oilers to nab him. Yes, they could use Defence, but they do have some prospects coming through now. I don't think any of them are elite though, but what makes the Oilers easy to play against is a lack of grit in their top 6. Nichushkin would definitely help in that regard. Would even make sense to draft this kid, and when he comes over to try and flip one of their other top 6 wingers for additional help wherever they may need it. I do think that in time, he would probably develop into a better player than anyone Edmonton has currently (just my opinion).

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Dagger

I don't think Columbus will trade their pick unless they're getting someone that can be apart of their core for the next 5 years. They're strength lies in their organizational depth, and giving them more picks in areas that good depth is found probably isn't enticing to them.

I think they wouldn't mind having a Cammalleri type though having said that. He'd instantly be a leader and provide a great 2nd line threat. Him and a first could be something they like. But then you have to consider whether you want our pick(and for arguments sake let's say it's a C) to be playing without a bonafide goal scorer and strong leader.

Sweeten the pot by saying you will pay a portion of Cammallerai's salary. At the draft would be the time and place to use that cap space if it means getting a higher pick.

[Stealth22]

Originally Posted by albertGQ

Personally I prefer Drouin over Barkov

Then pick two centers with our other first rounders.

This. Drouin is still a highly skilled player.

Obviously, I think our greater need at forward is still center, but it's still BPA no matter what.

If we end up picking 3rd, and Jones and MacKinnon are off the board, I'd go with Jonathan Drouin, no ifs ands or buts.

[FlamesAddiction]

Man, that would be a hard decision out of those 4. If I am Feaster, I am praying to pick fourth so the decision is already made for me. Jk

[Steve Bozek]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Highly doubt it...

1: At this point the Flames have just one game in hand on the teams near them in the standing with only Colorado having two.

2: If young enthusiasm counted for anything the Oilers would be winning the Cup not looking forward to hitting the links.

3: If pride factors in at all if Kipper hasn't had much pride for the rest of the season he isn't going to develop any extra now.


All that being said it isn't completely out of the realm of possibility that the Flames do draft as low as 5th... Carolina is just two points up on the Flames right now and a 3 point swing (Carolina currently owns the tie-breaker) in 9 games isn't impossible, unlikely but not impossible (SportsClubStats lists the percentile chance that the Flames finish 27th as 17%... 67% to finish 28-30). The Tampa Bay swing would be 5 points which is really unrealistic with so few games remaining.

If the Flames were to finish 4th from the bottom then there would exist a roughly 31% chance that a team below them wins the draft lottory and knocks us down a slot. so take that 17% provided by SportsClubStats and multiple it by 0.31 (Draft Lottory odds of those behind a theorhetical 27th place Flames team) and you get a 5.27-7.30% chance that the Flames draft 5th (the 7.3% is roughtly the odds that the Flames finish 26th less their odds of winning the lottory). The odds on 6th are obviously even less then that.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

Thanks and I hope you're right. However, as I understand it, his pride, and disappointment in his play this season, were part of the reason Kipper turned down the trade attempts. He is still capable of stealing a win or two while the other teams blow their games, and my pessimism is what makes me think he will.

[Muta]

What if we went for Drouin, and then Frederick Gauthier with the St. Louis pick?

Elite winger, BIG center.

I'd be cool with that.