Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by MisterJoji

BPA is always the best strategy. History is littered with teams drafting for need and bypassing the better player. And would drafting Jones really not be drafting for need anyways? It's not like we have a blue chip defenseman prospect currently.

History is littered with defencemen who don't pan out. Eric Johnson anyone?

[Tinordi]

Previous outcomes do not affect future odds

If Jones is projected to be a #1 D then the fact that other projected #1 Ds busted does not influence the odds that Jones reaches his ceiling. That is unless there is some systemic bias that undermines the odds making of #1 D prospects and scouting.

[handgroen]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

I've heard best D prospect in 10 years. So, better.

now, i thanked your post and do agree with you that jones would be a blessing for the flames if the that's the way it comes out in the wash.
but honest question; if jones is the best defensive prospect in 10 years, why wasn't he the best defense-man on team usa? let alone the best in the whole tourny? Trouba was the best D-man on that team and if it's a matter of age with jones being a year younger, then shouldn't we consider that mackinnon is almost a full year younger than jones?

[Roof-Daddy]

I hope we come out of this with MacKinnon and Gauthier, as I feel there is a chance both may leapfrog all our center prospects and make the team out of camp next fall (kind of like Duchene and O'Reilly did for the Avs a few years ago).

MacKinnon would be a lock IMO, and Gauthier already has nhl size and skating from what I've read.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by Teroy

You bet! And MacKinnon. Next year looks exciting.

I read an ISS report that listed him at 6'4" 220ls. I believe the 6'3" 200lbs was at the beginning of this season. Not sure if he's grown or if ISS is embellishing. I guess we'll find out at the combine.

[handgroen]

Another thought regarding the notion that colorado may trade up in the draft to secure jones.
If everyone on this board (which is very polarized at this time) can agree that the flames can do no wrong with a top 4 pick. then why would colorado give up assets to get a particular player?

side note, after this years draft, will colorado have the brightest future in the league with all their top end young talent? might even be a deeper talent pool than the fart smellers up the highway.

(duschene, o'rielly, landeskog, top 3 this year, and even stasny and johnson are not far removed from their hype.)

[handgroen]

Originally Posted by kn

Article on Drouin... sorry if it has been already been posted:



http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=6...site-Draft2013

while he did have a great junior tournament the most telling portion of that article is the way he feels about playing with Mackinnon. and here's the other thing to remember, if mackinnon plus small skilled wingers equals scoring, then we have got a couple guys he should meet.
gaudreau plays with mackinnon
sven plays with jankowski
then you've got backlund and reinhart for the bottom lines. Plus whoever else we bag in 1st round this year.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Previous outcomes do not affect future odds

If Jones is projected to be a #1 D then the fact that other projected #1 Ds busted does not influence the odds that Jones reaches his ceiling. That is unless there is some systemic bias that undermines the odds making of #1 D prospects and scouting.

That's precisely what I'm saying. Top ranked d are much riskier to project than forwards if history is any indicator

[cannon7]

I must be the exception, because if Jones is available where the Flames pick -- I take him hands down. Jones is a type of player you build a team around. Obviouly I crave a #1 center just like any Flames fan -- but Jones has massive upside, potentially his generations' Pronger/Niedermayer. You cannot pass a player like that up. That being said, I don't think the Flames will have the opporunity to pick him.

As for the Drouin vs. MacKinnon debate -- I think there's something to the trajectory in which a player rises in his draft year. Most analysis I've read puts great importance to this when evaluating prospects. Druoin has the trajectory edge over MacKinnon, but I think the way things will unfold it will actually be a MacKinnon vs. Barkov situation. I hear comparisons of Zach Parise for MacKinnon and I hear comparisons of Anze Kopitar for Barkov. I'd be pretty happy with either, frankly. Comparisons of Monahan to Eric Staal are rather intriguing as well.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by cannon7

I must be the exception, because if Jones is available where the Flames pick -- I take him hands down. Jones is a type of player you build a team around. Obviouly I crave a #1 center just like any Flames fan -- but Jones has massive upside, potentially his generations' Pronger/Niedermayer. You cannot pass a player like that up. That being said, I don't think the Flames will have the opporunity to pick him.

As for the Drouin vs. MacKinnon debate -- I think there's something to the trajectory in which a player rises in his draft year. Most analysis I've read puts great importance to this when evaluating prospects. Druoin has the trajectory edge over MacKinnon, but I think the way things will unfold it will actually be a MacKinnon vs. Barkov situation. I hear comparisons of Zach Parise for MacKinnon and I hear comparisons of Anze Kopitar for Barkov. I'd be pretty happy with either, frankly. Comparisons of Monahan to Eric Staal are rather intriguing as well.

You're not the exception, I take Jones over all others.

I also take Drouin over Mackinnon. I also am very tempted by Nichushkin, would love to package the Pitts, Blues and something else to move into a position to pick Nichushkin after our pick.

[Jing]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

History is littered with defencemen who don't pan out. Eric Johnson anyone?

Eric Johnson also missed an entire season from a serious injury. I wouldn't write him off just yet.

[hayduke's dad]

I hope the Flames get the 3rd pick in the draft. Only reason is then they won't have a choice of the 3 top picks. Because if they pick first overall they could turn any one of the 3 into Alexander Daigle

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

You're not the exception, I take Jones over all others.

I also take Drouin over Mackinnon. I also am very tempted by Nichushkin, would love to package the Pitts, Blues and something else to move into a position to pick Nichushkin after our pick.

In modern times taking a defensemen number 1 overall has not worked out that well. There isn't any impact defensemen taken 1st overall. Hamrlik, Jovonoski, Chris Phillips are the best you do. In all drafts where they were taken first overall the drafts have been relatively week aside from 1. The 2006 draft was very strong. The top 5 was Eric Johnson, Jordon Staal, Jonathon toews, Nikolas Backstrom, and Phil Kessel.

I take all 5 over Johnson now. For me to take a defensemen first overall he would need to be head and shoulders above the rest. In this draft the consensus is that the top 3 are all close. So I take the forwards over the defensemen.

I absolutely agree with you on Nichuskkin. If the russian factor can drop him into that 8-10 range I think we should be able to trade up to grab him.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by GGG

In modern times taking a defensemen number 1 overall has not worked out that well. There isn't any impact defensemen taken 1st overall. Hamrlik, Jovonoski, Chris Phillips are the best you do. In all drafts where they were taken first overall the drafts have been relatively week aside from 1. The 2006 draft was very strong. The top 5 was Eric Johnson, Jordon Staal, Jonathon toews, Nikolas Backstrom, and Phil Kessel.

I take all 5 over Johnson now. For me to take a defensemen first overall he would need to be head and shoulders above the rest. In this draft the consensus is that the top 3 are all close. So I take the forwards over the defensemen.

I absolutely agree with you on Nichuskkin. If the russian factor can drop him into that 8-10 range I think we should be able to trade up to grab him.

Maybe that could happen. Or maybe Seth Jones could be the next Chris Pronger and McKinnon the next Alex Daigle? History doesn't mean jack squat... always take BPA.

For those saying developing forwards is easier then D, I'd say the Flames have pumped out far more quality d-man then forwards (Phaneuf, Giordano, Montador, TJ Brodie ... and Regehr, Leopold who weren't drafted but developed by the Flames). If you compare to forwards, the best we have to show is (David Moss, Backlund, Prust, Lombardi, Nystrom)...

[Teroy]

We need a Centre. MacKinnon is our best bet. We need a big, skilled sniper.

[Fischy13]

I thought I read a post that had a mock draft generator. After searching posts for an hour, I can't find anything. Does anyone know if this is out there. It runs the odds and current placement? Just wondering how up to date it is with Calgary moving to 29th.

[FightinSioux]

The Flames must draft the skillful centre in MacKinnon and come draft day do their best to get Elias Lindholm I'm assuming within the top 10 through a trade up. Otherwise in the 10-15 range hope for Hunter Shinkaruk.

And IMO look at these guys towards the end of the first/early second J.T. Compher, Adam Tambellini, or Ryan Hartman. Also take a risk with Jordan Subban in the second/third range who's been declining in the scouting reports.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

Maybe that could happen. Or maybe Seth Jones could be the next Chris Pronger and McKinnon the next Alex Daigle? History doesn't mean jack squat... always take BPA.

For those saying developing forwards is easier then D, I'd say the Flames have pumped out far more quality d-man then forwards (Phaneuf, Giordano, Montador, TJ Brodie ... and Regehr, Leopold who weren't drafted but developed by the Flames). If you compare to forwards, the best we have to show is (David Moss, Backlund, Prust, Lombardi, Nystrom)...

The point we are making is that Seth Jones may not be the BPA. History means everything. The Draft is essentially a gamble. Why wouldn't you want the best odds of winning it? I checked the top 5 picks in every draft since 2000. In total 19 defencemen chosen out of 60 picks.

Here's the list:

2012
2) Ryan Murray
4) Griffen Reinhart
5) Morgan Reilly

2011
4) Adam Larssen

2010
3) Erik Gudbranson

2009
2) Hedman

2008
2) Drew Doughty
3) Zachary Bagosian
4) Alex Pietrangelo
5) Luke Schenn

2007
4) Thomas Hickey
5) Karl Alzner

2006
1) Erik Johnson

2005
3) Jack Johnson

2004
3) Cam Barker

2003
None

2002
3) Jay Bouwmeester
4) Joni Pitkanen
5) Ryan Whitney

2001
None

2000
4) Rostislav Klesla

Some prettygood Dmen in there, but the only franchise payer I see there is Doughty, maybe Pietrangelo. Them ain't good odds (1/19).

Caveats:
1) I don't follow drafts much and really don't know much how hyped these guys were compared to Jones
2) only one of these picks was a first overall, so there are some issues with regards to comparisons


I will attempt to do the same for fowards.

[Dorkmaster]

Originally Posted by FightinSioux

The Flames must draft the skillful centre in MacKinnon and come draft day do their best to get Elias Lindholm I'm assuming within the top 10 through a trade up. Otherwise in the 10-15 range hope for Hunter Shinkaruk.

And IMO look at these guys towards the end of the first/early second J.T. Compher, Adam Tambellini, or Ryan Hartman. Also take a risk with Jordan Subban in the second/third range who's been declining in the scouting reports.

Why take a guy that's declining? Because he's a Subban?

[FightinSioux]

Originally Posted by Dorkmaster

Why take a guy that's declining? Because he's a Subban?

IMO yes. It's like drafting a staal all the boys have talent. It's in the family. The kid has potential....he was in the top 30 in December if I remember correctly