Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by J epworth kendal

There is such a thing as a Russian Factor, but when he's now stated he is going to the NHL, that kind of takes the Russian factor out of the equation. Really, Radulov is the only player in the last while who came over and played as a top player, and still decided to leave. (I might be forgetting people, but he's the only one that really springs to mind).

Filatov, Babchuk, A. Kostitsyn, Radulov, Zherdev are all 1st rounders that left to go back to the KHL at least once. There's probably some lesser names you could add to that list as well. Afinogenov did as well did he not?

[J epworth]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Filatov, Babchuk, A. Kostitsyn, Radulov, Zherdev are all 1st rounders that left to go back to the KHL at least once. There's probably some lesser names you could add to that list as well. Afinogenov did as well did he not?

Still, Radulov (okay ya Zherdev as well, he's the guy I forgot) is the only one that did the actual bolt even though he was good enough to be a real star in the league. Filatov wasn't good enough, Babchuk wasn't good enough, and Kostitsyn had 8 solid NHL years before he left, not sure how you can say he's a player that bolted to the KHL.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

How many top Russian draft picks have come and left?

Filatov, Radulov and Zherdev are the names that come to mind. Any others?

Andrei Kostitsyn, Viktor Tikhonov and Ivan Vishnevskiy are other 1st rounders that left for the KHL.

Between 2003 and 2008, 5/9 Russians (not inlcuding Cherepanov who died) drafted in the 1st round now play in the KHL. Some of those could be that they were flat out busts anyway, but it could also be argued that the existence of a KHL safety net was a factor on their lackluster NHL efforts.

[TurdFerguson]

I don't fully understand the Russian flight risk conversation when talking about high-end players. I see the examples of what were believed top be top end prospects that returned to Russia, but none of those players with the exception of maybe Radulov really lived up to there billings as top-end or elite players. All the really good Russians who have been drafted have stayed around. So, IF you think Nichushkin is really that good then I don't really see the flight risk thing.

Now, average players are a totally different conversation when looking at flight risk but the fact that many are grouping Nichushkin in with the other projected "franchise players" makes me think that if the kid is that good, then there is little doubt he plays a long career in the NHL along with the rest of the elite players from around the world. And if he isn't that good, then its a blown pick either way...

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by TurdFerguson

I don't fully understand the Russian flight risk conversation when talking about high-end players. I see the examples of what were believed top be top end prospects that returned to Russia, but none of those players with the exception of maybe Radulov really lived up to there billings as top-end or elite players. All the really good Russians who have been drafted have stayed around. So, IF you think Nichushkin is really that good then I don't really see the flight risk thing.

Now, average players are a totally different conversation when looking at flight risk but the fact that many are grouping Nichushkin in with the other projected "franchise players" makes me think that if the kid is that good, then there is little doubt he plays a long career in the NHL along with the rest of the elite players from around the world. And if he isn't that good, then its a blown pick either way...

it's still very negative to a franchise. Early "blown" picks still have a chance to be used as an asset (turris, brassard, etc, etc) where there is still hope that a change of scenery/environment can bring out the player's potential.

If the player is not willing to play in hte minors for periods of time, and is more keen on rushing back to the motherland than this opportunity is also lost.

[TurdFerguson]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

it's still very negative to a franchise. Early "blown" picks still have a chance to be used as an asset (turris, brassard, etc, etc) where there is still hope that a change of scenery/environment can bring out the player's potential.

If the player is not willing to play in hte minors for periods of time, and is more keen on rushing back to the motherland than this opportunity is also lost.

I get that, but is the line of thinking really "if we blow this pick and the kid is Russian we really have nothing...so we better take a NA player because at least he will have some value if he busts". I really don't see teams looking at top draft picks that way. Maybe I'm just missing something...

[Hockey_Ninja]

I'm so happy Nichushkin made up his mind. Both Monahan and Lindholm should be their when we pick. If Feaster could pull a miracle out of his ass and get us Edmonton's pick somehow then we could be hitting the jackpot.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Andrei Kostitsyn, Viktor Tikhonov and Ivan Vishnevskiy are other 1st rounders that left for the KHL.

Between 2003 and 2008, 5/9 Russians (not inlcuding Cherepanov who died) drafted in the 1st round now play in the KHL.

How many of them played in the NHL?

The vast majority of the folk who come from the old soviet republics (because a lot of the guys that you're identifying as Russian aren't actually Russian) come over to play in the NHL. Some of them effectively bust and go back but who cares about the ones that bust? The guys that are really good (Malkin, Ovie, Gonchar, etc. etc.) stick around. Hell, a lot of guys that are just average stick around for a good long while.

I mean really... Ivan Vishnevskiy? He of all of 5 NHL games? Viktor Tikhonov? The guy who barely got 0.50PPG in the AHL? Hardly a deterent IMO.

[J epworth]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

it's still very negative to a franchise. Early "blown" picks still have a chance to be used as an asset (turris, brassard, etc, etc) where there is still hope that a change of scenery/environment can bring out the player's potential.

If the player is not willing to play in hte minors for periods of time, and is more keen on rushing back to the motherland than this opportunity is also lost.

But which players did that though? Of the "busts", Filatov played 3 seasons in the AHL, Tikhonov played 3 seasons in the AHL, and Vishnevskiy played 4 seasons in the AHL. None of them rushed their way back to the KHL, they all gave around the same time a lot of prospects give in the AHL before they either make the NHL, become AHL tweeners for their career or go to Europe for more money.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Parallex

How many of them played in the NHL?

The vast majority of the folk who come from the old soviet republics (because a lot of the guys that you're identifying as Russian aren't actually Russian) come over to play in the NHL.

I realize that, but they were drafted out of Russia and speak a mutually intelligible language. There are also a lot of people in Belarus that even want union with Russia. I have no problem lumping them together for the sake of this discussion as the KHL would have an equal pull.

Some of them effectively bust and go back but who cares about the ones that bust? The guys that are really good (Malkin, Ovie, Gonchar, etc. etc.) stick around. Hell, a lot of guys that are just average stick around for a good long while.

I mean really... Ivan Vishnevskiy? He of all of 5 NHL games? Viktor Tikhonov? The guy who barely got 0.50PPG in the AHL? Hardly a deterent IMO.

That's part of the issue though. Even if Nichushkin (or any Russian 1st rounder) doesn't develop into an elite talent, you still want them to be with the team as an asset. Teams still need 20 goal/50 point players and those are the ones that will be most tempted by the KHL. It's important to stay grounded and remember that not all of these top 5 prospects are absolutely going to live up to expectations.

Guys like Vishnevskiy and Tikhonov were late firsts and like most late 1sts, were long shots to make the NHL anyway, so I agree that they don't matter that much. They still left at the conclusion of their ELCs though and a lot of late firsts don't sniff the NHL until that point. Leaving at the age of 22 or 23 is still cutting and running IMO.

[moon]

Originally Posted by TurdFerguson

I get that, but is the line of thinking really "if we blow this pick and the kid is Russian we really have nothing...so we better take a NA player because at least he will have some value if he busts". I really don't see teams looking at top draft picks that way. Maybe I'm just missing something...

The concern can be that teams think he is a top 5 talent but needs 2-3 years to work on his all around game, now is that something he is willing to do when all his life he has been free to play the way he wants and has a 3+ million dollar deal back home?

It seems every report on Filatov was that his issue wasn't talent but an unwillingness to work on his overall game and that forcing him to play in the AHL rather than NHL.

Also, there is some talk that the Sochi Olympics and possible reprecussions of the IIHF not allowing guys who break their contracts keeping Russians in the NHL. Not sure if it is true but it could be something preventing some of the current Russians from leaving.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by TurdFerguson

I get that, but is the line of thinking really "if we blow this pick and the kid is Russian we really have nothing...so we better take a NA player because at least he will have some value if he busts". I really don't see teams looking at top draft picks that way. Maybe I'm just missing something...

you're right, team's can't look at it that way.

I just get the feeling that NA born players will be willing to suck it up and linger around in the hopes that they get the opportunity to become full time NHL'ers.

I think with the Russian players, their is a bigger risk of player's leaving when things aren't going well.

If we weren't Calgary, we were a bigger market like toronto, ny, la, chicago, then i think the risk is lower, but calgary is still considered a smaller market, and not necessarily a prime destination.

[UKflames]

Surely the team should be putting the hard questions to this kid prior to the draft, getting a feel for whether he is willing to put in the time in the AHL (if need be) or to come to a team that is rebuilding and does not guarantee success for 3-4 seasons.

If he seems uncomfortable with that then you back off and look at the next guy. The team should be doing their due diligence on all of these players and making them aware of the situation they are coming to with no promises but hard work.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by moon

The concern can be that teams think he is a top 5 talent but needs 2-3 years to work on his all around game, now is that something he is willing to do when all his life he has been free to play the way he wants and has a 3+ million dollar deal back home?

It seems every report on Filatov was that his issue wasn't talent but an unwillingness to work on his overall game and that forcing him to play in the AHL rather than NHL.

Also, there is some talk that the Sochi Olympics and possible reprecussions of the IIHF not allowing guys who break their contracts keeping Russians in the NHL. Not sure if it is true but it could be something preventing some of the current Russians from leaving.

This.

It's not that these players want to play in the KHL - they all have the motivation to play in the best league in the world. And it's not that the KHL offers more money (though that is possible at times).

The issue with Russian players is that they have played an individual, pure offensive style of hockey their entire lives. Becoming a great player means working on your defensive game as well - and sometimes that means a couple years in the A, or time on the 3rd/4th lines.

Many Russian players have shown in the past, an unwillingness to work on the less sexy aspects of the game. When working at becoming a good pro isn't fun anymore, they have the easy out of running back to the KHL where they can get paid just as well and never have to play defense or do any of the less fun stuff.

That is the issue and it is an issue for ALL of them, regardless of what they say in interviews. Sure, some survive the process, but it is a risk for all of them.

I very much hope that Nichushkin gets taken in the 1st 5 picks - that would be a perfect situation for the Flames. Let another team watch how awesome he can be but turn into a complete frustration (in all likelihood)

Now if we can just get the hype-machine going for Nurse!

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by UKflames

Surely the team should be putting the hard questions to this kid prior to the draft, getting a feel for whether he is willing to put in the time in the AHL (if need be) or to come to a team that is rebuilding and does not guarantee success for 3-4 seasons.

If he seems uncomfortable with that then you back off and look at the next guy. The team should be doing their due diligence on all of these players and making them aware of the situation they are coming to with no promises but hard work.

The kid is 18. He breaks up with his girlfriend, he wants to come to NA. He makes up, he wants to stay in Russia. I hope some other sucker drafts this kid, preferably ahead of us.

[korzym12]

Originally Posted by getbak

The results tonight help make the St Louis pick easier to figure out:

Chicago - Detroit
LA - San Jose
Pittsburgh - Ottawa
Boston - New York


For every series won by a team in green, the Blues' pick moves up one spot. For every series won by a team in red, the Blues pick doesn't move.

The pick can still go as high as 19th, and it can't go any lower than 22nd.

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Well, the Blues pick remains at worst 22nd overall, and if:

Rangers beat Bruins, Blues pick improves one spot.
Senators beat Penguins, Blues pick improves one spot.
Wings beat Hawks, Blues pick improves one spot.

Still a chance at 19th overall.

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I know it can be complicated, but I'll try to make it simple below:

FACT -> Blues pick right now is guaranteed to be 22nd at worst.

If Ottawa makes Round 3 - Blues pick moves up one spot
If Detroit makes Round 3 - Blues pick moves up one spot
If ONE OF Toronto or NY Rangers make Round 3 - Blues pick moves up one spot (BOTH of these team CANNOT make it to Round 3, has to be one or the other)

The Toronto/NY Rangers scenario is why some of us want to see them both win their game 7's tonight, because they would then face each other in Round #2 and one of them would have to make it to round #3 which would then guarantee the Blues pick would move up one more spot to 21st overall.

So, best case scenario all of Detroit, Ottawa, NY Rangers/Toronto make round 3, then Blues pick can moves up to 19th, and in that case (ALL of the above happening) The Penguins pick would have to also be 25th overall, because Penguins would have to lose out in round 2 for above to happen, as would Chicago.

So the end of the first round would look like this:

30th -> Cup Winner (Either Detroit, Ottawa, Toronto/NY Rangers, Los Angeles/San Jose)
29th -> Cup Finalist (Either Detroit, Ottawa, Toronto/NY Rangers, Los Angeles/San Jose)
28th -> Conference Final Loser #1 (Either Detroit, Ottawa, Toronto/NY Rangers, Los Angeles/San Jose)
27th -> Conference Final Loser #2 (Either Detroit, Ottawa, Toronto/NY Rangers, Los Angeles/San Jose)
26th -> Chicago
25th -> Pittsburgh (Flames)
......
19th -> Blues (Flames)


Clear as mud.

Man it took me a while to find all that...page 194

[PlayfulGenius]

its looking to be 21st, at best now... though I think CHI will still win their series as well.

[Commandant]

Anthony Duclair, a speedster with the Quebec Remparts

http://lastwordonsports.com/2013/05/...ct-profile-42/

[Commandant]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This.

It's not that these players want to play in the KHL - they all have the motivation to play in the best league in the world. And it's not that the KHL offers more money (though that is possible at times).

The issue with Russian players is that they have played an individual, pure offensive style of hockey their entire lives. Becoming a great player means working on your defensive game as well - and sometimes that means a couple years in the A, or time on the 3rd/4th lines.

Many Russian players have shown in the past, an unwillingness to work on the less sexy aspects of the game. When working at becoming a good pro isn't fun anymore, they have the easy out of running back to the KHL where they can get paid just as well and never have to play defense or do any of the less fun stuff.

That is the issue and it is an issue for ALL of them, regardless of what they say in interviews. Sure, some survive the process, but it is a risk for all of them.

I very much hope that Nichushkin gets taken in the 1st 5 picks - that would be a perfect situation for the Flames. Let another team watch how awesome he can be but turn into a complete frustration (in all likelihood)

Now if we can just get the hype-machine going for Nurse!

ALL OF THEM??

Like Pavel Datsyuk, or Sergei Fedorov, or Pavle Bure, or Konstantinov, or Markov, or Kasparitis, or Mogilny, or Larionov, or Kovalchuk, or Ovechkin, or Malkin, or ....

ALL RUSSIANS ARE THE SAME

Thats some of the most bigotted B.S. I've ever heard.

Every player is an individual, who should be scouted and analyzed as an individual.

There is no truth to Russians being more lazy, or unwilling to work on their game more than any other country, just look at numerous Canadians like a Pierre Turgeon, or a Mike Ribeiro, or a Patrick Marleau who have repeatedly been playoff busts.

Analyze each guy as an individual not because of where they were born.

Jesus, its 2013, not 1955. I would have thought society progressed past this bullcrap.


The ONLY factor to consider when drafting a Russian is the economic one and the lure of the money they can make playing close to home, thats it.... KHL and business, because this sport is a business at the end of the day.

[Commandant]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Andrei Kostitsyn, Viktor Tikhonov and Ivan Vishnevskiy are other 1st rounders that left for the KHL.

Between 2003 and 2008, 5/9 Russians (not inlcuding Cherepanov who died) drafted in the 1st round now play in the KHL. Some of those could be that they were flat out busts anyway, but it could also be argued that the existence of a KHL safety net was a factor on their lackluster NHL efforts.

Half the players drafted in the first round don't end up being NHL players anyway. I don't see the difference in 5/9