Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[dammage79]

Barkov inches closer to Calgary.....

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

ISS Top 30 prospects for May

1. Jones
2. Mackinnon
3. Drouin
4. Nichushkin
5. Barkov
6. Nurse
7. Lindholm
8. Zadorov
9. Monahan
10. Horvat

http://www.isshockey.com/iss-top-30-released-for-may/

Nichushkin drops two spots, and Zadorov and Lindholm swap spots from April rankings

That's very bullish on Horvat. Don't most places have him in the low teens-early twenties? Strange to see him ranked over Domi.

[Canada 02]

Originally Posted by Parallex

That's very bullish on Horvat. Don't most places have him in the low teens-early twenties? Strange to see him ranked over Domi.

He's had a great OHL playoffs for the Knights, likely helping his ranking. I suspect non-NHL 'scouts' and especially fans put to much stock in special tournaments (like the world juniors) and league playoffs. I've heard Tod Button on more than one occasion, and Jarmo Kekalainen (when he was with the Blues) say this because players play outside their normal roles in the special tournaments, and some players play over their heads briefly in the playoffs, but may not always have it in them (John Druce syndrome)

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Wolven

What I find interesting about this is that the NHL is creating ways to put a dollar value on all tradable assets, including draft picks. It is going to start begging the question "How much is a first round pick worth?" and "How much is a second round pick worth?".

If a team wants to send Calgary a player to be bought out because we are not going to use the compliance buyout, how are the owners and GMs going to value that transaction?

To Calgary:
Player that other team wants to buy out, but can't due to wanting to buy out other players.
Draft Pick(s)


To Other team:
Conditional 7th round pick that goes to the other team if the Flames do NOT buy out the player.

Obviously the owners are going to want to get the most for their dollars. If they are going to spend $6M buying out a player for another team I do not think a 2nd round pick is going to cover it.

Do you think that GMs are going to be given dollar values for draft picks?

1st round = $2M
2nd round = $1M
3rd round = $500k
etc.

So that way when a GM is asked to eat $6M in salary or buyout he will reply saying "okay, but it'll cost you three 1st rounders".

The Toronto-Tampa Bay trade a few trade-deadlines back involving Kolzig and Heward, 2 UFA's who were done for the season, was essentially a cash trade. The Leafs took on the rest of their contracts, about 500k, and got a 4th rounder in exchange.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Parallex

That's a very loose definition of "gamble". Plus you're retroactively assigning the "gamble" label to things...

Chucko: Junior A yes... but he was ranked as a low first round pick by CSS so he certainly wasn't a reach.

Pelech: That he's being convieniently labelled a gamble now is funny because for years he was trumpeted or decried (depending on the commenter) because he was considered a safe low ceiling-high floor "safe" player.

Irving: When he was taken there wasn't an emerging opinion that goalies in the first round were gambles. Not one that I remember anyways.

Backlund: Injuries alone do not make someone a gamble... if the Flames get Barkov at 6 this year are they "gambling"? because he's injured.

Erixon: That he later refused to sign doesn't make him a gamble pick at the time.

Of all the guys that you listed (Don't know why you didn't bother to add Phaneaf to make it an even 10) the only one that strikes me as a significant gamble at the time is Jankowski. Every other player has either been thought of as a safe pick (that flopped anyways) or had a level of risk that was par the course for where they were taken.

Yeah, I guess I could have included Phaneuf, he was a no brainer as it was well known we wanted one of three defencemen and he was the one left. Something like it should be this time where we take the one left of the four centres.

The thing with Pelech and Backlund is that they were injured and missed most of their draft year, so you couldn't get a good read on them. Barkov played the whole regular season, so he's pretty easy to rank.

As for Chucko, drafting from a lower league is a gamble because it's harder to rate the player because his level of competition is low. Why do you think everyone says Jankowski is a gamble? It's one more step the player needs to take. I'm not completely against this type of pick but the player has to be outstanding and we have to be in a position of having a strong prospect base. As has been said we don't.

Erixon is the only non NA trained player and he's the only one who refused to sign. Do you see a relationship, we're just not a sexy place to play? It could be much worse when dealing with a Russian.

Irving, come on their have been arguments on here about taking goalies in the first round since I came on this board. One of my first debates here I took the goalies side, I've since changed my opinion. They just take too long to develop, if they ever do.

[OILFAN #81]

I've heard Nurse is 3 years away from being NHL ready. What about Zadorov? Asking because I've heard the Oilers at #7 are interested in Zadorov or Monahan.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

As for Chucko, drafting from a lower league is a gamble because it's harder to rate the player because his level of competition is low. Why do you think everyone says Jankowski is a gamble?

It's different. Jankowski is a gamble for multiple reasons...

A: He was drafted out of a league even lower then Junior A,
B: lacked an NHL body due to rapid height growth without the accompanying mass,
C: Was a 2nd round projection

Chucko played in a well-scouted college feeder league, had an established NHL sized body, was considered 1st round talent by scouting organizations. If Chucko was a greater gamble then you usually find in the 20-30 slots it was only slight. Chucko wasn't close to the gamble that Jankowski is. Drafting Kris Chucko in my mind had about as much risk as drafting JT Compher would this year, and I don't think any of the TSN draft guys would call us drafting JT Compher a legandary pick.

The Flames reached for Jankowski... they didn't reach for Chucko.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

ISS Top 30 prospects for May

...

http://www.isshockey.com/iss-top-30-released-for-may/

Nichushkin drops two spots, and Zadorov and Lindholm swap spots from April rankings

Good update to the standings. I would still take C > D when it comes to the #6 pick. Barkov > Lindholm > Monahan. I know a lot people are saying BPA-BPA-BPA but in this case I would say that if any of those 3 names are on the board we should take them over Nurse/Zadorov. I just do not believe the talent gap is big enough to ignore organizational need.

I really like the list of names in the 18-23 range for the Blues pick and if we can grab Morin at 30 with the Pens pick I think it'll be a steal. There are going to be a number of teams thinking a 6'7 player is worth dropping for and the Blue Jackets in particular are (also) looking at drafting twice in the 20s.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Parallex

It's different. Jankowski is a gamble for multiple reasons...

A: He was drafted out of a league even lower then Junior A,
B: lacked an NHL body due to rapid height growth without the accompanying mass,
C: Was a 2nd round projection

Chucko played in a well-scouted college feeder league, had an established NHL sized body, was considered 1st round talent by scouting organizations. If Chucko was a greater gamble then you usually find in the 20-30 slots it was only slight. Chucko wasn't close to the gamble that Jankowski is. Drafting Kris Chucko in my mind had about as much risk as drafting JT Compher would this year, and I don't think any of the TSN draft guys would call us drafting JT Compher a legandary pick.

The Flames reached for Jankowski... they didn't reach for Chucko.

That Chucko was less of a gamble than Jankowski, doesn't mean he wasn't a gamble. There was lots of questioning after the Chucko pick. It was hardly a consensus pick. IIRC Chucko, on most lists, was rated to go in the second round, same as Jankowski. One thing that worries me is that we had hints that Darryl was looking at Zajac and Chucko just as we have hints that Feaster is looking at the Russian. I'm tired of these gambles.

Compher is rated as a first rounder, he played for a good US national team. I don't think Chucko got a smell of our national team.

I take it that your ignoring of the other players I rated as gambles, you now agree were gambles.

[PlayfulGenius]

Originally Posted by DionTheDman

I don't know the specific statistics, but franchise goalies are more commonly found in later rounds, are they not?

The most recent Vezina winners are:
Henrik Lundqvist - 205th overall
Tim Thomas - 217th overall
Ryan Miller - 138th overall
Martin Brodeur - 20th overall
Miikka Kiprusoff - 116th overall
Jose Theodore - 44th overall
Dominik Hasek - 199th overall

Out of those, only one was from the first round.

Your logic is flawed...as are others in here simply comparing when current NHL Gs are taken...you'd have to compare how many total Gs were chosen in those rounds, within that time frame, and see which rounds have the highest success rate...

... I have a sneaky suspicion that the most success round to choose a G, like any other position, is the 1st round

[shutout]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

The problem is that the teams that will go the buy out route, have rich owners that would rather write the cheque than lose a good asset like a 1st or 2nd.

I guess a team with an internal budget might think about it, but they will need those 1st round picks not just for a chance at a good player, but a chance to have a good player on a ELC.


It sort of seemed like Kotalik and a 2nd was traded for $3 million cap space. So that might be where to start.

The price that Feaster established is that he will pay a 2nd round pick to get rid of $3M. He sent a second round pick to Buffalo so that they would take Kotalik and his $3million contract.

Obviously Edwards is not an owner that would rather have draft picks or choices and who would rather have the money. Another example is the Bouwmeester trade, where I am convinced they would have gotten a blue chip elite prospect from a team if they had been willing to hold back $2-2.5M of Bouwmeesters contract next year.

The Flames management and owners are stupid and cheap.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by shutout

The price that Feaster established is that he will pay a 2nd round pick to get rid of $3M. He sent a second round pick to Buffalo so that they would take Kotalik and his $3million contract.

Obviously Edwards is not an owner that would rather have draft picks or choices and who would rather have the money. Another example is the Bouwmeester trade, where I am convinced they would have gotten a blue chip elite prospect from a team if they had been willing to hold back $2-2.5M of Bouwmeesters contract next year.

The Flames management and owners are stupid and cheap.

^ I thought the issue wasn't absolute dollars, but something about tagging room so we could sign Brad Richards / Ryan Smyth to those mega contracts and we needed cap room?

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by shutout

The Flames management and owners are stupid and cheap.

Ownership and management are neither stupid nor cheap. That said, they have not successfully iced a playoff calibre hockey team for some years now.

[Iniggywetrust]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Good update to the standings. I would still take C > D when it comes to the #6 pick. Barkov > Lindholm > Monahan. I know a lot people are saying BPA-BPA-BPA but in this case I would say that if any of those 3 names are on the board we should take them over Nurse/Zadorov. I just do not believe the talent gap is big enough to ignore organizational need.

I really like the list of names in the 18-23 range for the Blues pick and if we can grab Morin at 30 with the Pens pick I think it'll be a steal. There are going to be a number of teams thinking a 6'7 player is worth dropping for and the Blue Jackets in particular are (also) looking at drafting twice in the 20s.

Glad to see that Bowey has moved up in the rankings. Would love to grab him with the Blue pick. I think he is the boom or bust type of d-man you use a 22nd pick on. A puck moving, smooth skating defensemen would help our prospect base significantly.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by OILFAN #81

I've heard Nurse is 3 years away from being NHL ready. What about Zadorov? Asking because I've heard the Oilers at #7 are interested in Zadorov or Monahan.

I heard Zadorov is 3+ years away also. From what i have read he is a bit of a project with huge upside.

Everything i have read about the Oilers is that they want Monahan. It almost comes across like he they can't have Monahan, they will trade the pick.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

I heard Zadorov is 3+ years away also. From what i have read he is a bit of a project with huge upside.

Everything i have read about the Oilers is that they want Monahan. It almost comes across like he they can't have Monahan, they will trade the pick.

Another reason for us taking Monahan.

[Cheerio]

Why do the Oilers want Monohan so badly? Don't they already have Gagner and Nugent-Hopkins as their Cs?

[StrykerSteve]

ISS May Rankings... I'd think that the actual top 5 will play out similarly to this. Hopefully, this means Calgary can land the trio of Monahan, Zykov and Heatherington with their three picks. I'd be pretty content with that result.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Cheerio

Why do the Oilers want Monohan so badly? Don't they already have Gagner and Nugent-Hopkins as their Cs?

Gagner is a 3rd line centre. Monahan is better suited to play a 2nd line role while being a top PKer. The Oilers really don't have a player like that.

And outside of Jones, no defender will play in the NHL next season, and they need to make the playoffs next year.

I still think they'll trade the pick for immediate help.

[dammage79]

Forgot that the Flames traded their own fifth last year for Wideman's negotiating rights.

For a while I thought they had two fifth round picks.