Our 6th Overall Pick: Elias Lindholm or Sean Monahan?

[Ashasx]

I think Barkov is a better prospect than Lindholm, but not by much. I can actually see Lindholm go at 4.

[Lanny_McDonald]

There are a couple of players who are getting a of of credit because they have size and get to use that advantage in leagues where size is considered a big advantage. The NHL is not a league where the size in question is considered an advantage. This size is more the norm than the exception. You want to draft players that are exceptional. I think that Lindhold has an exceptional skill set. I will take that over two players that are achieving success because of their size advantage. Lindholm stick handles in a phone booth and is an exceptionally shifty player on his skates. I'll take guys like that every opportunity I get. The fact that Lindholm also brings a physical edge to his game is a bonus. I'll take the highly skilled Lindholm over the lesser skilled, but much smarter (hockey IQ), Monahan every day.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

The NHL is not a league where the size in question is considered an advantage.

Incorrect. Size is always an advantage unless you lack the corresponding strength. Bigger, stronger players are harder to check, protect the puck more easily, can win more battles along the boards and in front of the net, and a big centre has an advantage in defending against other big players. I believe size can sometimes help in the face off dot as well.

I have a slight preference for Lindholm but I'm not convinced he's significantly more skilled. My reason for preferring Lindholm at this point is his edge in skating. Size isn't the only reason why a guy like Monahan is highly thought of. He's had the skill to be considered a top 5 pick for years.

[moon]

Originally Posted by New Era

There are a couple of players who are getting a of of credit because they have size and get to use that advantage in leagues where size is considered a big advantage. The NHL is not a league where the size in question is considered an advantage. This size is more the norm than the exception. You want to draft players that are exceptional. I think that Lindhold has an exceptional skill set. I will take that over two players that are achieving success because of their size advantage. Lindholm stick handles in a phone booth and is an exceptionally shifty player on his skates. I'll take guys like that every opportunity I get. The fact that Lindholm also brings a physical edge to his game is a bonus. I'll take the highly skilled Lindholm over the lesser skilled, but much smarter (hockey IQ), Monahan every day.

Monahan is achieving success because of his size advantage? Since when?

And where does this Lindholm is more skilled argument come from? Just because he is European? Everything I have read seems to say they are fairly similarly skilled.

[Ring of Fire]

After reading this blog: http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/04/29/how-much-offensive-potential-does-2013-nhl-draft-prospect-sean-monahan-have/
I decided to extend the experiment outside of the OHL to similar 2-way NHL centreman to see their NHLE in their draft year. Monahan seems to be a safe bet to be a strong 2-way centreman that can be a second-liner or first liner on a good team. Eric Staal would seem be the ceiling but I would think that a Ryan Kesler/Mike Richards/Jordan Staal/Patrice Bergeron type output of a consistent 50pts with two-way play would be more realistic. I'd be happy with that pick. His NHLE of 33 is very similar to Mike Richards in his draft year. I think Monahan would likely need another year of juniors before jumping to the NHL but could surprise ala Bergeron or O'Reilly.

Forwards
League
PPG
Translation
NHLE

Sean Monahan
OHL
1.34
0.30
33
Eric Staal
OHL
1.48
0.30
37
Mike Richards
OHL
1.30
0.30
32
Brayden Schenn
WHL
1.26
0.30
31
Jonathan Toews
NCAA
0.93
0.41
31
Cody Hodgson
OHL
1.25
0.30
31
Ryan Kesler
NCAA
0.78
0.41
26
Jordan Staal
OHL
1.00
0.30
25
Patrice Bergeron
QMJHL
1.04
0.28
24
Ryan O’Reilly
OHL
0.97
0.30
24

[Ring of Fire]

I think the Flames have to go with Barkov if he is available as he has a higher potential than Monahan and is the most likely to jump in the NHL next year. Barkov's NHLE is 41 but is unlikely to be available for the Flames. Which leads me to Lindholm...

Lindholm becomes an interesting case as he has the third highest NHLE in the draft among the top ranked players at 40 (behind Drouin and Barkov, but slightly ahead of McKinnon at 39). Lindholm has strong offensive potential to be a 70+ point scorer and would be a top-line player in the NHL. He would likely play another year in Sweden and then step in as an NHL regular in 2014-15. Here's how his NHLE compares:

Forwards
League
PPG
Translation
NHLE
Elias Lindholm
SEL
0.63
0.78
40
Henrik Sedin
SEL
0.69
0.78
44
Daniel Sedin
SEL
0.84
0.78
54
Peter Forsberg
SEL
0.74
0.78
47
Niklas Backstrom
SEL
0.57
0.78
36
Robert Nilsson
SEL
0.51
0.78
33

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by New Era

There are a couple of players who are getting a of of credit because they have size and get to use that advantage in leagues where size is considered a big advantage. The NHL is not a league where the size in question is considered an advantage. This size is more the norm than the exception. You want to draft players that are exceptional. I think that Lindhold has an exceptional skill set. I will take that over two players that are achieving success because of their size advantage. Lindholm stick handles in a phone booth and is an exceptionally shifty player on his skates. I'll take guys like that every opportunity I get. The fact that Lindholm also brings a physical edge to his game is a bonus. I'll take the highly skilled Lindholm over the lesser skilled, but much smarter (hockey IQ), Monahan every day.

Isn't this sentence a bit contradictory? If size is the norm, then being undersized would mean a disadvantage, which is basically the same thing as saying having size is an advantage.

[Henry Fool]

"NHL equivalency" numbers are pseudostatistics.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Isn't this sentence a bit contradictory? If size is the norm, then being undersized would mean a disadvantage, which is basically the same thing as saying having size is an advantage.

Not at all. A certain size can be a benefit in junior but not in the NHL. A big kid in junior (6'2) is not that big in the NHL. It's more of the norm. While there are some posters like this Flames Draft Watcher, believe that size in one league will translate to another, but the reality is that a certain leagues see players with a smaller or larger size as the norm. It's like in college sports. A 270 pound line man could be large while in the NFL a sub-300 pounder is considered small. Some what to believe the junior size advantage translates, but they are kidding themselves.

[moon]

Originally Posted by New Era

Not at all. A certain size can be a benefit in junior but not in the NHL. A big kid in junior (6'2) is not that big in the NHL. It's more of the norm. While there are some posters like this Flames Draft Watcher, believe that size in one league will translate to another, but the reality is that a certain leagues see players with a smaller or larger size as the norm. It's like in college sports. A 270 pound line man could be large while in the NFL a sub-300 pounder is considered small. Some what to believe the junior size advantage translates, but they are kidding themselves.

I haven't heard FDW say that size translate all the time and Monahan isn't a. that big for Junior or b. playing better because he is any bigger than anyone so not sure why you keep bringing it up and trying to make up things that others are saying.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by New Era

Not at all. A certain size can be a benefit in junior but not in the NHL. A big kid in junior (6'2) is not that big in the NHL. It's more of the norm. While there are some posters like this Flames Draft Watcher, believe that size in one league will translate to another, but the reality is that a certain leagues see players with a smaller or larger size as the norm. It's like in college sports. A 270 pound line man could be large while in the NFL a sub-300 pounder is considered small. Some what to believe the junior size advantage translates, but they are kidding themselves.

I would have loved to see Monahan and Barkov trade places. Monahan simply doesn't look physically tested in the OHL. That's not to say that he couldn't handle it, but it is always something in the back of my mind when looking at big players in junior. They are like men among boys, and occasionally they don't adjust to being more on equal ground in the NHL.

[Vulcan]

I think the main problem in hockey is when you draft a smaller guy who plays a physical game. Like Brule, he couldn't translate his game to the NHL because he was too small to play the same style of game. Some players learn and adjust and some don't.

Right now with Monahan being 6'2 and 193 he can play a defensive role if his offence doesn't translate well in the NHL.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

I think the main problem in hockey is when you draft a smaller guy who plays a physical game. Like Brule, he couldn't translate his game to the NHL because he was too small to play the same style of game. Some players learn and adjust and some don't.

Right now with Monahan being 6'2 and 193 he can play a defensive role if his offence doesn't translate well in the NHL.

Sound like a real franchise player.

Lindholm doesn't have any " hitches" in his skating. His work ethic and tenacity jump out. He simply wants to win
Monaghan looks like he will turn into a bit better Wayne Primeau

[moon]

Originally Posted by Yoho

[/B]

Sound like a real franchise player.

Lindholm doesn't have any " hitches" in his skating. His work ethic and tenacity jump out. He simply wants to win
Monaghan looks like he will turn into a bit better Wayne Primeau

Monahan doesn't look like that at all.

If we are throwing out ridiculous statements Lindhilm looks like he will turn out to be a worse Jesper Mattsson.

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

I understand that the point of message boards is to generate discussion, but I can't believe there are some people in this thread that are so steadfastly fixed on either Monahan or Lindholm. I mean, I can see having a preference, but being so incredibly fixated on one of these guys over the other seems ridiculous.

I think both of these players are the real deal. How anyone can read scouting reports on Monahan and think Wayne Primeau is beyond me. How anyone can read scouting reports on Lindholm and think one-dimensional European sniper is beyond me as well.

Clearly this whole debate is a matter of stereotypes.

"Oh, he's a North American with a good defensive game? He'll be a third liner, tops..."

"Oh, he's a Swede who put up 30 points in 48 games in a men's league? He'll be an elite player..."

My preference is Monahan, but I'll be equally as ecstatic if they get Lindholm. I've read tons of scouting reports on both of these guys and they're damn near the same player, so either one of them in a Flames uniform will be awesome. Let's at least do some homework before declaring either player a plug or a likely bust. They both seem like 'can't miss' players to me.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Yoho

[/B]

Sound like a real franchise player.

Lindholm doesn't have any " hitches" in his skating. His work ethic and tenacity jump out. He simply wants to win
Monaghan looks like he will turn into a bit better Wayne Primeau

Right now we don't know how either of these two players will turn out. All draft picks are a gamble. What I was trying to reply to was the idea that Monahan's slightly larger size was a detriment.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Neither seems like can't miss players. Every player can miss, it depends on their circumstances. Either of these guys could be drafted by the Flames and they would both have a lot to prove. I think Monahan is getting a lot of hype because he is Canadian. If he were an American or Swedish development system player he wouldn't be generating the hype. That is what concerns me. Have the players switch systems and consider their success. I'm not sold on either, but Lindholm plays in the tougher league and has excelled.

[moon]

I would say it is the opposite as American and European prospects get hype and Canadians get played down as having lower offensive upside simply because they are Canadian.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Pierre "Monster" McGuire

I understand that the point of message boards is to generate discussion, but I can't believe there are some people in this thread that are so steadfastly fixed on either Monahan or Lindholm. I mean, I can see having a preference, but being so incredibly fixated on one of these guys over the other seems ridiculous.

I think both of these players are the real deal. How anyone can read scouting reports on Monahan and think Wayne Primeau is beyond me. How anyone can read scouting reports on Lindholm and think one-dimensional European sniper is beyond me as well.

Clearly this whole debate is a matter of stereotypes.

"Oh, he's a North American with a good defensive game? He'll be a third liner, tops..."

"Oh, he's a Swede who put up 30 points in 48 games in a men's league? He'll be an elite player..."

My preference is Monahan, but I'll be equally as ecstatic if they get Lindholm. I've read tons of scouting reports on both of these guys and they're damn near the same player, so either one of them in a Flames uniform will be awesome. Let's at least do some homework before declaring either player a plug or a likely bust. They both seem like 'can't miss' players to me.

You would have a point about this whole 'stereotype' thing except the fact that if the Flames didn't go on a winning streak at the end of the season that this thread would be about MacKinnnon or Druin who both happen to be Canadian players and what look to be superior prospects. There is no stereotypes going on here and simply a matter of differing opinion on two different players just like it would have been had it been about MacKinnnon or Druin with the 2nd or 3rd overall pick for the Flames. One of them would have been ahead of the other in the poll just as there is here and it has absolutely nothing to do with the nationality of the players and simply the prospect that a small majority thinks is the better pick. Monahan may still be the guy that the Flames pick but accept that some fans would rather the Flames take the Swedish guy.

[Red John]

A lot of stereotypical myths being perpetuated here. Funniest one is that Lindholm is a skilled Euro and better offensive player while Monahan is a gritty Canadian kid with no offensive upside.

Here's what a scout says about the two (taken from THN's preview):

Originally Posted by scout

I don't think Lindholm is ever going to be a prolific offensive guy and by that I mean a guy who gets 80 points. But he's going to be a very good two-way center who can play on your second line.

Originally Posted by scout

There's nothing about Sean Monahan that wows you, but the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. He's a No. 1 center. One of the knocks on him is his speed, but it's not going to hold him back because of his hockey sense.

It's actually Lindholm that is projecting to be more of a two-way forward while Monahan projects to be an offensive guy.