2016 NHL Draft

[Monahan For Mayor]

I'm extremely high on Sprong, so I don't mind that deal. I would want another 2nd pick or something coming back tho. The trade would address 2 major needs for us. A starting goalie, and a very good RW Prospect.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by nightfx

I don't see how GM's like Benning can say that the defenseman in this draft can be good top pairing #2 defenseman. Don't most good #2 defensemen have all the tools to become a #1? How can someone be sure a 17 year old with those tools can't become at #1?

Well Benning has a scouting background I believe or at least he used to run the draft for Boston. A scout's job is to project the upside of players. There are definitely defensemen who have 2/3 potential and not #1 potential. That is in fact what I thought of Chychrun when I saw him at the U18s.

But mostly I think its because Benning is using a very restrictive definition of a #1 defenseman. He thinks there are only 8-10 true #1 defensemen in the league. Under his definition I tend to agree, I'm not sure any of the defensemen have #1, elite potential.

That said I do think a #2 defenseman is a very valuable commodity and useful piece. And I'm not sure how VAN is going to find top pairing guys if they don't draft them. I'm much less convinced than VAN fans that Benning's latest interviews mean they will take a forward for sure.

Actually based on Benning thinking there are at least two guys that have top pairing potential as good #2s, I think the idea that is draft class for d-men is super weak isn't a solid conclusion to draw. That's why I think the Flames may have 1 d-men up there with Tkachuk/Dubois in their 2nd tier from 4-6. Treliving is a former defensemen and his actions with the Flames show he values them highly. I could definitely see us having a potential top pairing guy in the 2nd grouping.

As for Dubois, Bob Mckenzie says only 4 or so of the 10 scouts he talked to had Dubois in the top 5. There is a lot more variance on Dubois' rating than Tkachuk's. Benning has never said Dubois has 1st line potential for them. He talked about him being a good player who can play the game any style you want. But after talking about Dubois he brings Tkachuk up out of nowhere and says he has 1st line potential and then says there are 2 defensemen in that range as well.

The Canucks haven't had their final scouting meetings so this may not be set in stone either. Let's hope Benning realizes that trading for top pairing d-men is almost impossible and that they'll have to draft one themselves.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

In Corey Pronman's mock draft today, he has

4. Oilers: Tkachuk
5. Canucks: Chychrun
6. Flames: Dubois
7. Coyotes: Nylander

plz

Says he believes the Flames are very high on Dubois.

Also says that some teams have Logan Brown around their top 5 while others don't even have him in their top 15.

I think this scenario is legit. I think Tkachuk is the top forward for most after the top 3. I think VAN could very well see Dubois as being equivalent to the defensemen and thus prioritize taking a d-men due to need.

I very much believe him about the Flames being high on Dubois.

I would also be fine with offering a 2nd to move up one spot so that we can get one of Tkachuk/Dubois and VAN gets their d-man.

[GranteedEV]

Some serious red flags around Tkachuk's production. 4th in ES Primary Points on his own team is pretty terrible for a top 6 pick:

http://flamesnation.ca/2016/5/5/2016...primary-points

Dubois is easily a cut above in terms of being an offense driver, and he's the better two-way player too.

I'm starting to solidify the top 4 forwards after the main three as

Dubois-Keller-Jost-Brown

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Some serious red flags around Tkachuk's production. 4th in ES Primary Points on his own team is pretty terrible for a top 6 pick:

http://flamesnation.ca/2016/5/5/2016...primary-points

Dubois is easily a cut above in terms of being an offense driver, and he's the better two-way player too.

I'm starting to solidify the top 4 forwards after the main three as

Dubois-Keller-Jost-Brown

And yet Tkachuk was ranked top 5 by 9 of the 10 scouts Mckenzie talked to. Sorry but your statistical analysis isn't trumping their opinions for me. There are no red flags around his production. You can't punish him for having some of the best prospects in the entire OHL on his team and line, that isn't a fair analysis. On a weaker team he likely would've led the team in scoring and even strength points. He doesn't lose stock because he's on a powerhouse. Marner and Dvorak are older than him. That he was able to keep up with them should be a positive for him not the negative you are trying to spin it as. It's like you've chosen to ignore every single thing the scouts have said about him in order to judge him on stats.

[Erick Estrada]

I have no issues with Dubois, Tkachuk, Nylander in that order. Anything other than those three and it's kind of that Jankowski thing when you hope the GM and scouts know what they are doing. I like the Jets approach to drafting as they seem to stick mostly to BPA in the early rounds regardless of size and it's served them well.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

And yet Tkachuk was ranked top 5 by 9 of the 10 scouts Mckenzie talked to. Sorry but your statistical analysis isn't trumping their opinions for me. There are no red flags around his production. You can't punish him for having some of the best prospects in the entire OHL on his team and line, that isn't a fair analysis. On a weaker team he likely would've led the team in scoring and even strength points. He doesn't lose stock because he's on a powerhouse. Marner and Dvorak are older than him. That he was able to keep up with them should be a positive for him not the negative you are trying to spin it as. It's like you've chosen to ignore every single thing the scouts have said about him in order to judge him on stats.

Everything the scouts have said about him is that he's a purely complimentary player, and the Flames are not a team brimming with primary players to be blowing a top 6 pick on a complimentary player. You yourself posted a Craig Button interview like ten posts up where he says "Tkachuk knows what he is and that's a complimentary player which helps him be NHL ready". But the key thing in that is he never says Tkachuk has a very high ceiling. So no, I haven't 'ignored' what they say.

I'm not interested in hearing your theories about my opinion, as you continue to try to indoctrinate me into your size-obsessed philosophy. Try not responding to everything I post about Tkachuk with "But your opinion disagrees with what 'the scouts' say". I'm not oblivious to the reports posted forth by the scouting hivemind. I'm not being intentionally dense towards them either. You're just emphasizing different parts that appeal more to you.

And being younger is no excuse for a top 6 pick, who's big and strong and playing on a top line, to be outproduced at ES by Aaron Berisha.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by New Era

Would you move the #6 to Piitsburgh for Fleury and Daniel Sprong? Get a goaltender and a Nylander type forward on the RW. Thoughts?

That is an atrocious trade.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

And yet Tkachuk was ranked top 5 by 9 of the 10 scouts Mckenzie talked to. Sorry but your statistical analysis isn't trumping their opinions for me. There are no red flags around his production. You can't punish him for having some of the best prospects in the entire OHL on his team and line, that isn't a fair analysis. On a weaker team he likely would've led the team in scoring and even strength points. He doesn't lose stock because he's on a powerhouse. Marner and Dvorak are older than him. That he was able to keep up with them should be a positive for him not the negative you are trying to spin it as. It's like you've chosen to ignore every single thing the scouts have said about him in order to judge him on stats.

So when Bob says "10 scouts", does he ever elaborate on whether that is 10 scouts representing 10 teams or whether those scouts represent a cross-section from different junior leagues?

Or could 5 of those scouts be from the Leafs or all 10 be scouting primarily the OHL or QMJHL?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

So when Bob says "10 scouts", does he ever elaborate on whether that is 10 scouts representing 10 teams or whether those scouts represent a cross-section from different junior leagues?

Or could 5 of those scouts be from the Leafs or all 10 be scouting primarily the OHL or QMJHL?

Don't think he's ever clarified. If he talks to head scouts they would have crossed over and seen all the top players. I would assume he tries to get a bit of a mix but I doubt he's ever going to say.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Everything the scouts have said about him is that he's a purely complimentary player, and the Flames are not a team brimming with primary players to be blowing a top 6 pick on a complimentary player. You yourself posted a Craig Button interview like ten posts up where he says "Tkachuk knows what he is and that's a complimentary player which helps him be NHL ready". But the key thing in that is he never says Tkachuk has a very high ceiling. So no, I haven't 'ignored' what they say.

Seems like you do ignore some of what they say. Benning called him a #1 LW. Pronman said he had more elite skill than Dubois. Bob Mckenzie thinks he has as high a ceiling as Dubois so what does that say? Elite 1st line complimentary players are hard to find. Seems like you underrate complimentary players overall.

There's only one puck to go around. If the puck is on Gaudreau's stick or Bennett's stick do we really need another player who has to have the puck on his stick or would it be better to get an elite complimentary player who does all the things without the puck that compliments your elite skilled players and makes them better? Gaudreau isn't going to dig the puck out of the corner himself. Gaudreau isn't going to screen the goalie and get tips. We need someone with a high skill level who does the dirty work. You seem to ignore this aspect of the game. Tkachuk has elite skill but combines it with a ton of jam around the net. Basically exactly what we need to compliment the high skill players we already. Bennett, Monahan, Gaudreau along with Shinkaruk/Mangiapane is enough "primary" players. Those two lines of primary players will need two complimentary players. Is that Colborne? Is that Ferland? In an ideal world it would be someone better than those two. Cue Tkachuk/Dubois.

We'll never agree on this since you don't seem to believe elite complimentary powerforwards are valuable or useful players. You don't think Lucic was a useful piece with Kopitar? I think that opinion is completely out to lunch so I guess we'll agree to disagree. I think your ranking of Tkachuk at #11 is a joke.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Some serious red flags around Tkachuk's production. 4th in ES Primary Points on his own team is pretty terrible for a top 6 pick:

http://flamesnation.ca/2016/5/5/2016...primary-points

Dubois is easily a cut above in terms of being an offense driver, and he's the better two-way player too.

I'm starting to solidify the top 4 forwards after the main three as

Dubois-Keller-Jost-Brown

Don't know enough about Keller other than Gaudreau sized. Not sure I put him over Nylander yet. I'll need to do more homework.

Done a lot of viewing and reading on Brown and he really seems like a flavor of the week riser. Seems like he'll end up like Crouse where he gets a big rankings boost but still ends up being picked around 11th. Who knows though, with the draft the way it is this year, he could go high.

I'm coming around on Jost but I'm still suspect of his play in a lesser league. Even though the U-18 performance was epic, he did only play 62 games this year compared to a lot of other CHL players who were well over 70+ games.

Who knows. I liked what I saw with Jost.

I'll take Nylander even with the scary thought of him being softer than normal. I lean towards the U-18's being an anomaly in regards to his softness. First real long season for him, probably worn out a bit.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Everything the scouts have said about him is that he's a purely complimentary player, and the Flames are not a team brimming with primary players to be blowing a top 6 pick on a complimentary player. You yourself posted a Craig Button interview like ten posts up where he says "Tkachuk knows what he is and that's a complimentary player which helps him be NHL ready". But the key thing in that is he never says Tkachuk has a very high ceiling. So no, I haven't 'ignored' what they say.

I'm not interested in hearing your theories about my opinion, as you continue to try to indoctrinate me into your size-obsessed philosophy. Try not responding to everything I post about Tkachuk with "But your opinion disagrees with what 'the scouts' say". I'm not oblivious to the reports posted forth by the scouting hivemind. I'm not being intentionally dense towards them either. You're just emphasizing different parts that appeal more to you.

And being younger is no excuse for a top 6 pick, who's big and strong and playing on a top line, to be outproduced at ES by Aaron Berisha.

Tkachuk seems like the absolute perfect complimentary player to Bennett though. If Porier or Ferland figure it out that could be a nasty second line to contend with

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Don't know enough about Keller other than Gaudreau sized. Not sure I put him over Nylander yet. I'll need to do more homework.

Keller > Nylander is a no brainer to me. Nylander's biggest selling point is he's shooting right but Jordan Eberle shoots right too, doesn't mean we want him. I think Nylander's too perimeter for our team.

Done a lot of viewing and reading on Brown and he really seems like a flavor of the week riser. Seems like he'll end up like Crouse where he gets a big rankings boost but still ends up being picked around 11th. Who knows though, with the draft the way it is this year, he could go high.

I definitely am impressed by Brown's playmaking but his goal scoring is a bit of a red flag. Being able to simply score goals is not a throwaway skill.

I'm coming around on Jost but I'm still suspect of his play in a lesser league. Even though the U-18 performance was epic, he did only play 62 games this year compared to a lot of other CHL players who were well over 70+ games.

Who knows. I liked what I saw with Jost.

Yeah, playing BCHL is a red flag on Jost. But he reminds me a bit of a of Justin Williams or Joe Pavelski even, just that do-anything-to-win in big situations type. Ultimately I think with Jost it's not a matter of "If" but a matter of "how long". He has the talent, he'll adjust to the NCAA level but it might take a second year for him to actually dominate against grown men.

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Tkachuk seems like the absolute perfect complimentary player to Bennett though. If Porier or Ferland figure it out that could be a nasty second line to contend with

A guy like Tkachuk should be the third best player on a line, not second, or it's not a dangerous enough line when checking gets tight Bennett does need a Kunitz type on one wing, I agree but as a third option not second.

[Point Blank]

The whole idea of Tkachuk riding his teammate's coat tails is a tired narrative IMO. When's the last time another player was ranked this highly only to turn out a flop specifically because he was simply the product of his teammates and team's success?

Greg Nemisz comes to mind but he wasn't even ranked top 10 in NA skaters. Sure it's reasonable to suspect Tkachuk's production, but if you make that claim then expect dissenting opinions coming your way because it is disagreeing with a huge consensus of scouts who spend a lot more time watching Tkachuk than you.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Point Blank

The whole idea of Tkachuk riding his teammate's coat tails is a tired narrative IMO. When's the last time another player was ranked this highly only to turn out a flop specifically because he was simply the product of his teammates and team's success?

Greg Nemisz comes to mind but he wasn't even ranked top 10 in NA skaters. Sure it's reasonable to suspect Tkachuk's production, but if you make that claim then expect dissenting opinions coming your way because it is disagreeing with a huge consensus of scouts who spend a lot more time watching Tkachuk than you.

Pavel Brendl is a closer comparable. Either way. It's not posters making these claims about Tkachuk, outside media is making these arguments.

[SuperMatt18]

Does anybody know why Cameron Morrison is not getting more hype as a late 1st rounder/ early 2nd rounder?

2nd in the USHL in scoring, and is a 6'2" 205lb C/LW

Put up 1.1 PPG in the league as a really young 17 year old (late August birthday). Led his own team by 16 points and 10 goals - so wasn't benefiting from playing with older linemates. And was a +38 on a team that overall had a -5 goal differential.

Really similar numbers to Brock Boesers 1.19 PPG, or Girgensons 1.12 PPG in their draft years. Also interesting is that when Kyle Connor played for the same team last year he only outscored his closest scoring teammate by 16 points.

Think he could be a steal with the Stars 1st (if we get it) or our 2nd if he is still there.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Keller > Nylander is a no brainer to me. Nylander's biggest selling point is he's shooting right but Jordan Eberle shoots right too, doesn't mean we want him.



I definitely am impressed by Brown's playmaking but his goal scoring is a bit of a red flag. Being able to simply score goals is not a throwaway skill.



Yeah, playing BCHL is a red flag on Jost. But he reminds me a bit of a of Justin Williams or Joe Pavelski even, just that do-anything-to-win in big situations type. Ultimately I think with Jost it's not a matter of "If" but a matter of "how long". He has the talent, he'll adjust to the NCAA level but it might take a second year for him to actually dominate against grown men.

I am actually really impressed by Brown's goal scoring. The more I see him get his shots off, the more impressed I become.

Brown was ranked 5th or so before the season started, but came out of the gate relatively slow. He was essentially a playmaker instead of a shooter, and I think it hurt him. Once he started shooting, he just exploded - and to do that towards the end of the season and finish off so strong I think is fairly impressive.

I have said it before, and I do admit it is probably a bit of an exaggeration, but the way Brown shoots and is able to score anywhere from 2 - 10ft away from the net is just reminiscent of Mathews to me. He finds the puck, and he picks a corner, and it is in. Now, those are high-grade scoring chances, but you watch him do it and you see how he manages to find the lose puck, how he corrals it so quickly (and it looks cool too since he has like a 50ft reach!) and it is just a quick little rocket into the net.

The more I see him, the more I hope the Flames actually select him. I think he could end up being that quintessential piece on the power play screening goalies (and which goalie is going to be able to look over him?), but he can tip well and he can just find that lose puck and put it in so quickly - the exact same reason why I value Tkachuk so much.

Couple that with his playmaking and hockey-sense... The only downside is that I figure he is 2-3 years away yet, as he is really thin. Maybe I am overestimating how long it will take, but he may be worth the wait.

I am still a bit leery on him though. Like others have said, 6'6" guys often bust. But I am warming up to him rather quickly, and in part it is because of his shot. I think it it is actually being massively underrated. I think it is actually one of his strong assets, and it is something he has to continue to use more of.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Point Blank

The whole idea of Tkachuk riding his teammate's coat tails is a tired narrative IMO. When's the last time another player was ranked this highly only to turn out a flop specifically because he was simply the product of his teammates and team's success?

Greg Nemisz comes to mind but he wasn't even ranked top 10 in NA skaters. Sure it's reasonable to suspect Tkachuk's production, but if you make that claim then expect dissenting opinions coming your way because it is disagreeing with a huge consensus of scouts who spend a lot more time watching Tkachuk than you.

Tkachuk is the kind of player that scouts seem to love and fans are really less excited about.

I was surprised to hear in Corey Pronman's article today that he feels Tkachuk has more skill than Dubois.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Does anybody know why Cameron Morrison is not getting more hype as a late 1st rounder/ early 2nd rounder?

2nd in the USHL in scoring, and is a 6'2" 205lb C/LW

Put up 1.1 PPG in the league as a really young 17 year old (late August birthday).

Really similar numbers to Brock Boesers 1.19 PPG, or Girgensons 1.12 PPG in their draft years.

Think he could be a steal with the Stars 1st (if we get it) or our 2nd if he is still there.

I forgot to bring him up during the U18s. He wasn't a massive standout but I definitely liked what I saw. Good size, skating, and he showed some skills. I definitely think he can go in the range.