2016 NHL Draft

[MoreDrank]

Friendly reminder that top picks are better than picking 8:

Darren Haynes ‏
Historic examples of 1st pick vs 8th pick:
Ovechkin vs Alex Picard
Crosby vs Devin Setoguchi
P. Kane vs Zach Hamill
Tavares vs Scott Glennie

C'mon smile on the Flames hockey gods.

[Bourque's Twin]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Terrible argument. You don't score goals by being big and strong. You score goals by shooting the puck. Dubois has an excellent shot. His size/strength will help his game translate to the NHL more easily. He'll still be above average in size at the NHL level. His size/strength is a positive, a good asset, it's something to like about him and it's something that will help him succeed in the NHL.

Trying to spin it as a negative is ass backwards. It's a nonsensical argument.

You believe otherwise? Show us all the guys rated to go top 5 who scored goals in junior because they were big and then failed at the NHL level because they were still big. Such a silly argument, we hear it every year and it literally makes no sense.

Overreact much? Every year guys are taken higher than they should be because they have size. I think my argument makes complete sense. In Junior he has a bigger size differential than he would in the NHL. Therefore, his size will give him more advantage in Jr than in the NHL. Of course size is an advantage, I'm not saying otherwise. But, his success in Jr could be overblown because of his size differential and not necessarily his skill. Did you watch the highlights I posted? His shots weren't overpowering and most of his goals he used his size/strength to drive to the net, which I said may not be as easy for him to do in the NHL. Watch his breakaway at 3:10. Where's the top-5 pick skill? I don't think he's a finisher. Watching PLD versus Puljujarvi is a massive difference. I'm praying for a lottery pick.

[expo2428]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Maybe but I remember some one bringing up that last years Hitmen were bigger than last years Flames.

Funny Id never think that, but I just quickly looked at the averages just based on weight because it'd be fast and the hit men average weight was 198 and the Flames average weight was 197. That doesn't mean much as Im not a scientific expert on putting together numbers and averages but I thought that was pretty neat that you mentioned that.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by MoreDrank

Friendly reminder that top picks are better than picking 8:


C'mon smile on the Flames hockey gods.

Typically drafts aren't very deep. You're more likely to get 2-3 good players in a draft and then varying degrees of meh after that. It's been bizarre recently that in 2013 you had a solid top 8, in 2014 a great top 4, and 2015 a high quality top 17 with a few exceptions (that draft was the best draft since 2003 though)

This year there are 5-6 top notch guys with another handful that might be good also.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by dying4acup

Esposito was drafted 20th overall, not top 5.

I know, not sure why Flames Draft Watcher threw that condition in at the end but still. Dude was highly touted before the draft and slipped, partly because there was concern that he had a low skill level banging in pucks after shoving aside 150 pound 16 year olds while he was already a grown-ass man. And he ended up busting.

This isn't a rule that applies to everyone of above average size and strength in junior but it's something to consider, and I don't blame people discussing it. If people want to argue that Dubois and Tkachuk's games will translate or that most of their goals are scored with pure skill that's fine, but to throw any concern over the Esposito effect out the window whole sale is disingenuous, and boring. It's a more interesting conversation to speculate on players shortcomings/possible defects instead of deflecting criticism of everyone in the top ten. Same thing happened when posters were concerned about the Tkachuk's high secondary assist numbers, which should absolutely be a red flag.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by MoreDrank

Friendly reminder that top picks are better than picking 8:


C'mon smile on the Flames hockey gods.

That just bummed me out.

[GranteedEV]

Envisioning potential lines for every top pick:

Gaudreau - Matthews - Iginla
Gaudreau - Bennett - Laine
Backlund - Bennett - Puljujarvi
Ferland - Bennett - Dubois
Frolik - Bennett - Rubtsov
Keller - Bennett - Iginla
Jost - Monahan - Iginla
Sergachyev - Brodie
Brown - Monahan - Iginla
Tkachuk - Monahan - Gaudreau
Backlund - Jankowski - McLeod
Ferland - Bennett - Nylander
Giordano - Fabbro
Giordano - Juolevi
Bean - Andersson
Chychrun - Hamilton
Bellows - Bennett - Toffoli

[AC]

I don't see why Iginla would waive to come back to Calgary. He left for a reason.

I think the best we can hope for is the Regehr treatment by signing a one day contract to retire as a Flame.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by AC

I don't see why Iginla would waive to come back to Calgary. He left for a reason.

Trade deadline, if we're entrenched in a playoff spot, he would waive I think.

[Jaydee]

Originally Posted by AC

I don't see why Iginla would waive to come back to Calgary. He left for a reason.

I think the best we can hope for is the Regehr treatment by signing a one day contract to retire as a Flame.

Because Calgary > Colorado

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by MoreDrank

Friendly reminder that top picks are better than picking 8:


C'mon smile on the Flames hockey gods.

Haynes goes out on a limb there. Who woulda thought that drafting 1st overall is better than 8th? Wow!

The odds of the Flames getting a top three pick is pretty small, but drafting 8th is even smaller, the worst odds of any possibility for a move in the draft. Maybe to cheer people up we can look who went in the 6/7 slots instead?

2015 - Pavel Zacha, Ivan Provorov
2014 - Jake Virtanen, Haydn Fleury
2013 - Sean Monahan, Darnell Nurse
2012 - Hampus Lindholm, Matthew Dumba
2011 - Mika Zibanejad, Mark Scheifele
2010 - Brett Connolly, Jeff Skinner
2009 - Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Nazem Kadri

I think we'll be able to get a quality player at either slot. No, not Auston Matthews, but a quality player should be there.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

Every year guys are taken higher than they should be because they have size.

Higher than they should have? That's your valuation. Sometimes teams see raw potential in huge players that doesn't end up getting realized. That doesn't necessarily mean the pick was bad, players bust or disappoint for a variety of reasons, many of which cannot be anticipated. And sometimes teams take a small skilled player and that player has trouble making a huge impact in the NHL. Markus Granlund is very skilled but he isn't an impact NHLer. Why? Size/strength and lack of elite skating IMO. Lack of size/strength can really limit your upside. Some players overcome a lack of size through a combination of superior skating, agility, skill (see Gaudreau) but not all do or not all have enough of an edge in those areas to erase their size disadvantage.

Sure some players are taken as projects. Which means that scouts are projecting them into the future. I look at Logan Stanley for example and I see the potential for him to turn into a Derien Hatcher type. Will he? You can't know for sure, scouting is not an exact science.. But a Derien Hatcher type is very rare these days. There aren't enough big, physical defensive d-men who can play top 4 to go around. If Logan Stanley goes in the teens and doesn't turn does that mean he was taken too high? Not necessarily. He has a chance to be a Derien Hatcher type and that type of player is very valuable so a team will take a chance on him at some point.

The upside is generally bigger when you have a big skilled player vs a small skilled player. There are exceptions like Kane and Gaudreau but there's also a ton of small players stuck in the minor leagues. Lemieux was near unstoppable because he combined size, strength, skill and skating. Same for Jagr. Were they more purely skilled than a guy like Fleury? Probably not, but their size and strength gave them an advantage, they excelled because of it.

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

I think my argument makes complete sense. In Junior he has a bigger size differential than he would in the NHL. Therefore, his size will give him more advantage in Jr than in the NHL. Of course size is an advantage, I'm not saying otherwise.

You were saying otherwise because you are saying he's potentially overrated due to size. This is using his size against him. Saying it's a bad thing when in fact its a good thing.

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

But, his success in Jr could be overblown because of his size differential and not necessarily his skill.

If it was then he wouldn't be rated so highly by the scouts. They aren't ranking players in the top 10 strictly because of size otherwise all the 6'6 guys would be in the top 10 wouldn't they?

His success in junior isn't being overblown, he scored a lot of goals and points and scouts project him to be a scoring forward in the NHL.

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

Did you watch the highlights I posted? His shots weren't overpowering and most of his goals he used his size/strength to drive to the net, which I said may not be as easy for him to do in the NHL.

I've seen highlights where he has an NHL calibre slapshot. He has the size to be able to drive the net at the NHL level, that's part of why he's rated so high. You'd rather have a guy who has the size to drive the net than someone who is too small or too scared to. He doesn't have the shooting ability of Nylander, but Nylander doesn't have his size/strength and power game.

Offense in the NHL is often generated through screens, tips, rebounds. In order to generate screens, tips and have someone close enough for the rebound you usually need someone who is big and strong enough to crash the net but still has the skill to pass/shoot. Offense in the NHL is sustained through puck possession and a good part of that is being able to cycle the puck. Smaller or softer players can struggle to cycle the puck effectively because they can't win board battles (see Baetschi/Granlund/Raymond for recent Flame examples.)

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

Watch his breakaway at 3:10. Where's the top-5 pick skill? I don't think he's a finisher.

It sounds like maybe you just prefer purely skilled forwards? Were you a big fan of Huselius and Val Bure? Huselius had infinitely more skill than Milan Lucic but no one would take Huselius in his prime over Lucic in his prime. Why is that? Maybe pure skill isn't the only thing that matters? Maybe being so big and strong that you are hard to check, hard to move, can protect the puck more easily, maybe that matters too?

Dubois is skilled, big, strong and fast. It's an appealing combination. Is he as purely skilled as Nylander or Keller? Nope. But he still may be a more effective NHLer overall because he has better size/strength than they do combined with a high skill level.

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

Watching PLD versus Puljujarvi is a massive difference.

There should a massive difference, one is a top tier player, a potential franchise player and the other likely isn't.

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

I'm praying for a lottery pick.

We all are.

[sureLoss]

Burke will be the Flames representative at the draft lottery

Elliotte Friedman @FriedgeHNIC
A few of you have asked who is repping each team. Shanahan (TOR), Chiarelli (EDM), Linden (VAN), Davidson (CLB), Burke (CAL)...

Elliotte Friedman @FriedgeHNIC
Cheveldayoff (WIN), Leblanc (ARIZ), Russ Brandon (BUF), Bergevin (MON), Alan Hepple (COL), Dorion (OTT), Francis (CAR), Sweeney (BOS)...

Elliotte Friedman @FriedgeHNIC
NJ will be either Ray Shero or Stephen Pellegrini

[dissentowner]

Oh ffs, can we please not derail this thread with Iginla? Please?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

And sometimes teams take a small skilled player and that player has trouble making a huge impact in the NHL. Markus Granlund is very skilled but he isn't an impact NHLer. Why? Size/strength IMO. Lack of size/strength can really limit your upside.

Size, Strength, and Speed. IF Granlund could skate like Tyler Johnson he'd be an effective NHLer.

Offense in the NHL is often generated through screens, tips, rebounds. In order to generate screens, tips and have someone close enough for the rebound you usually need someone who is big and strong enough to crash the net but still has the skill to pass/shoot. Offense in the NHL is sustained through puck possession and a good part of that is being able to cycle the puck. Smaller or softer players can struggle to cycle the puck effectively (see Baetschi/Granlund/Raymond for recent Flame examples.)

Big players can be just as ineffective at cycling. See David Jones, Brandon Bollig, Lance Bouma, Sean Monahan, Joe Colborne for the vast majority of his Flames career for recent Flames examples.

I agree that skill alone is not enough. You need players hard on the puck willing to get elbowed in the face to come out of a corner to make a play. But I disagree that size is a necessary component of a strong puck possession team. Even sticking to 3rd liners, guys like Andrew Shaw (5'10 / 180), Brendan Gallagher (5'9" / 185), Gustav Nyquist (5'10" / 180), Kris Vertseeg (5'11 / 180) are some of the most effective forwards currently at playing a cycle game. And That's not even factoring in undersized stars like Tyler Johnson, Patrick Kane, and Claude Giroux.

I prefer Dubois too but not because of size alone, but because of the the ability to employ that size with motor, instinct, skill, and fearlessness. Those are the things I value and that's why I prefer Keller over Nylander for instance. He seems to have those intangibles that produce a good NHLer. You don't have those intangibles I don't care how big you are, you just end up with Joe Colborne. You have a team full of guys with those intangibles, it wouldn't matter if it was the Pacific division and they were all 5'9", they would give a team like L.A. fits in their own way.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Size, Strength, and Speed. IF Granlund could skate like Tyler Johnson he'd be an effective NHLer.

Yeah I ninja edited that section to include speed.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Big players can be just as poor at cycling effectively. See David Jones, Brandon Bollig, Lance Bouma for recent Flames examples.

Wasn't Bouma-Stajan-Jones really effective in 14-15 near the end of the season and the start of the playoffs? Obviously you are right though, just because you are big doesn't necessarily mean you can cycle well. We've seen Colborne come leaps and bounds in that area but he still has room for improvement. Imagine Colborne with Crosby's core strength? He would absolutely dominate the boards and be able to drive the net at will. But he's still a touch lanky for a big guy. Jankowski similarly needs to add strength and learn how to use it.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I agree that skill alone is not enough. You need players hard on the puck willing to get elbowed in the face to come out of a corner to make a play. But I disagree that size is a necessary component of a strong puck possession team. Even sticking to 3rd liners, guys like Andrew Shaw (5'10 / 180), Brendan Gallagher (5'9" / 185), Gustav Nyquist (5'10" / 180), Kris Vertseeg (5'11 / 180) are some of the most effective forwards currently at playing a cycle game. And That's not even factoring in undersized stars like Tyler Johnson, Patrick Kane, and Claude Giroux..

Agreed, there are smaller players that are really hard on the puck and cycle well. In the end being hard on the puck and playing fearlessly and determined erases a lot of size disadvantage. Core strength plays huge into it as well. With Nylander I'm just not sure he has that fearlessness and determination to go to the hard areas. Baertschi didn't, Granlund didn't. Raymond doesn't. I have less reservations about taking an average sized or undersized player if he plays balls to the wall.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I prefer Dubois too but not because of size alone, but because of the the ability to employ that size with motor, instinct, skill, and fearlessness.

Agreed.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Those are the things I value and that's why I prefer Keller over Nylander for instance. He seems to have those intangibles that produce a good NHLer.

Fair enough. I just don't think we can spend our potentially last top 10 pick for hopefully a long while on another tiny player when our best forward is teeny tiny too. I think a big team like an ANA or LA would make more sense for a Keller. I think its hard to win in the playoffs with too many small forwards up front. You become too easy to push around. We've seen with Gaudreau's away points how he struggles when the opposition is allowed to deploy their best and most physical defensive players against him. It neutralizes some of his effectiveness. And you won't win a cup without winning some road games here and there.

Hopefully we add a very skilled player who has size and strength and makes us harder to shut down and harder to play against.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

Overreact much? Every year guys are taken higher than they should be because they have size. I think my argument makes complete sense. In Junior he has a bigger size differential than he would in the NHL. Therefore, his size will give him more advantage in Jr than in the NHL. Of course size is an advantage, I'm not saying otherwise. But, his success in Jr could be overblown because of his size differential and not necessarily his skill. Did you watch the highlights I posted? His shots weren't overpowering and most of his goals he used his size/strength to drive to the net, which I said may not be as easy for him to do in the NHL. Watch his breakaway at 3:10. Where's the top-5 pick skill? I don't think he's a finisher. Watching PLD versus Puljujarvi is a massive difference. I'm praying for a lottery pick.

From reports that I have seen, Dubois is being mentioned a complete player who uses his size and strength to complement his offensive skills. He is also mentioned as having a style of play similar to Jamie Benn. Described as someone who plays with edge and is hard to knock off the puck creating time and space for he teammates "especially in the corners". Those seem like qualities that should help him make the transition to the NHL? Your assessment that his skills will be hampered at the NHL level seem to be ignoring the qualities that make him sought out at the NHL level, not the other way around. I did watch the videos you posted but wondering if maybe those were not enough to alleviate your concerns?

Here is Craig Buttons assessment from last month. As you will note his is comments, Craig Button- "He has elite skill, with power and intelligence."

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2016/NHL-D...erreLuc-Dubois

[Anduril]

"His success in junior might not translate because he has the advantage in size against kids."
"Just wait and see, he won't be able to make it in the NHL against grown men with his stature."

So either he's too big, average or small. Maybe like in GrantedEV's and FDW comments size is only a part of the picture while you look at the other factors and context (is he using his strength only versus a mix of skill and power).

[edslunch]

So much discussion about a player that the Flames almost certainly can't pick

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by edslunch

So much discussion about a player that the Flames almost certainly can't pick

Why? He's right in their likely range