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Old 10-28-2008, 12:31 PM   #441
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/\ What's everyone's opinion on the sources of those quotes in that article. It seems like everyone in the real estate industry is always painting a rosy picture. Heck one guy in that article is basically saying that we should buy now before prices go up. And I've been hearing "returning to a stable market" for the past 6 months. There was another article a week or so ago that quoted some guy from a bank saying he expects the real estate market to go unchanged for the next 6 months.
My opinion is it's tough to relying on sources by people that get paid on commission. When you're on commission the best time to buy/sell is right now.
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Old 10-28-2008, 12:47 PM   #442
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http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/...d-4c11834077dc

According to realtor Mike Fotiou, of First Place Realty, so far this month up to Oct. 26 the average MLS sale price for a single-family home was $446,698 while for a condo it was $291,458. Both are slightly up from the sale price average in September.

However, the month-to-date sale prices are down from last year, when they were $452,254 for single-family homes and $331,617 for condos.

CREB has taken their stats down at the moment, but as of earlier this morning they were showing the single family median price as down from last month, at $387,500, down from $395,000, and more notably, the months of inventory for SFH now being around 7 (up from 5) as there has been a huge decline in sales.
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Old 10-28-2008, 12:48 PM   #443
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My opinion is it's tough to relying on sources by people that get paid on commission. When you're on commission the best time to buy/sell is right now.
Totally agree. Fact is the days of "Lets buy 8 houses and rent them out or flip them. I am such a genius " are long gone in Calgary. If you need a place to live in, plan on living there a long time, plan on paying at least 25% down on a 25 year mortgage, and found a home on the market you like, then by all means buy. However speaking from a local economic point of view, there's far more downward pressure on prices in the near term outlook than upwards. Big Oil has reined in spending for 2009 and the longer prices and economic uncertainty continue in the overall economy that dreaded "L" word will rear it's ugly head. When people are losing their jobs, stock options are worthless, and many people already leveraged to the nines buying places in the "buy now before the market surpasses you" era, you'd have to be either naive or have your livelihood depend on real estate to think that the market's bottomed out. Another issue that might impact prices is retirees downscaling houses to avoid having to go back to work in light of the meltdown the past couple of months.

Last edited by Cowboy89; 10-28-2008 at 12:54 PM.
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Old 10-28-2008, 01:12 PM   #444
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I agree with troutman mostly. We're also still reasonably busy, probably about normal for October and even a little busier than last year although less busy than the couple of years before that.


It does seem that some of my investor clients are having harder times with obtaining financing, and I am working on and receiving more questions about foreclosures than I have in my eight years in the business.
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Old 10-28-2008, 01:13 PM   #445
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At the bottom of the Calgary Herald article, you will see the full stats... how they spin this into a positive message is beyond me: (Previous month is in italics, bad new in Red.)

MLS Fall Prices for City of Calgary
Single family average price $446,698 $444,048
Single family median price $386,000 $395,000 (Down $9000)
Total single family sold 675 1,152
Total active single family listings 5,766 5,387
Condo average price $291,458 $287,426
Condo median price $268,000 $265,000
Total condos sold 329 465
Total active condo listings 2,766 2,659
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Old 10-28-2008, 01:20 PM   #446
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Totally agree. Fact is the days of "Lets buy 8 houses and rent them out or flip them. I am such a genius " are long gone in Calgary. If you need a place to live in, plan on living there a long time, plan on paying at least 25% down on a 25 year mortgage, and found a home on the market you like, then by all means buy.
This is probably the best advice I've heard in a very long while. while I appreciate both sides of this discussion, so often pictures are too rosy, or they are too doom and gloom (claeren).

If you are buying a house to live in, great, but if you are buying for fear that the market will pass you by, or as an investment, it's probably not the best time.

some people probably made off extremely well flipping houses, but when I look around a community and see 10 for sale signs all from the same realtor (and they are brand new homes) you have to think someone tried to make a quick buck on an operating line of credit and is now in some serious serious trouble.
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Old 10-28-2008, 01:33 PM   #447
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Totally agree. Fact is the days of "Lets buy 8 houses and rent them out or flip them. I am such a genius " are long gone in Calgary. If you need a place to live in, plan on living there a long time, plan on paying at least 25% down on a 25 year mortgage, and found a home on the market you like, then by all means buy. However speaking from a local economic point of view, there's far more downward pressure on prices in the near term outlook than upwards. Big Oil has reined in spending for 2009 and the longer prices and economic uncertainty continue in the overall economy that dreaded "L" word will rear it's ugly head. When people are losing their jobs, stock options are worthless, and many people already leveraged to the nines buying places in the "buy now before the market surpasses you" era, you'd have to be either naive or have your livelihood depend on real estate to think that the market's bottomed out. Another issue that might impact prices is retirees downscaling houses to avoid having to go back to work in light of the meltdown the past couple of months.
Bolded part. Totally disagree with. Why put 25% down at least? What does it prove? If I've got a decent interest rate the last thing I want to do is tie up "at least" 100 grand in a friggin house.
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Old 10-28-2008, 01:35 PM   #448
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Bolded part. Totally disagree with. Why put 25% down at least? What does it prove? If I've got a decent interest rate the last thing I want to do is tie up "at least" 100 grand in a friggin house.
There is no right or wrong answer, from a cost of capital standpoint you are right, you are just effectively saving the interest on a loan with a very low rate which is a small benefit. However it comes down to your alternative use of the money. Equity in your house sure beats the markets over the last month right?
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Old 10-28-2008, 01:45 PM   #449
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There is no right or wrong answer, from a cost of capital standpoint you are right, you are just effectively saving the interest on a loan with a very low rate which is a small benefit. However it comes down to your alternative use of the money. Equity in your house sure beats the markets over the last month right?
Yup, it's the blanket statements that bother me. You should do this, do that, 25% down at least or you shouldn't be buying a house, 35 year mortgage terrible! etc.

Decide what works for you and go for it!
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Old 10-28-2008, 01:51 PM   #450
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Month-to-month numbers have to be watched carefully when you're looking at volume and pricing. Autumn is always slower than the summer months even when everything is going well so a month-to-month drop in sales may not mean as much.
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Old 10-28-2008, 01:52 PM   #451
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At the bottom of the Calgary Herald article, you will see the full stats... how they spin this into a positive message is beyond me: (Previous month is in italics, bad new in Red.)
And really using a 1 month change to make any kind of judgement is just silly, the market goes up and down all throughout the year in the best of times, it's longer term moves that are important.

EDIT: Beaten to the punch!

Agree with the sentiment that buy and flip is long gone, it was gone a long time ago. Cash flow is king.
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Old 10-28-2008, 02:13 PM   #452
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Yup, it's the blanket statements that bother me. You should do this, do that, 25% down at least or you shouldn't be buying a house, 35 year mortgage terrible! etc.

Decide what works for you and go for it!
That's completely fine. The reason for blanket statements is that many need to listen to the blanket statement to avoid doing something stupid financially. There are plenty of financial illeterates out there that just want to live in the nicest or biggest place a bank or FI will lend them money to live in. Lowest Common Denominator statement for sure. Often it isn't a case of I have $100,000, is it best used all towards a down payment for this house? But rather "I have $25,000, how big/nice of a house/condo can I buy?"
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Old 10-28-2008, 04:03 PM   #453
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The flip side to all of this- I wonder how many "$0 Down Payment" assumable mortgages we will see now. I look at the house across the street from me, and the people bought it last year at around $360K, and then sold it this week for $340K. Assuming they put 5% down, that means whoever bought it might have been able to assume the mortgage for $2-4K.

The time may be right for people with poor credit or without large down payments to get into the market; once again assuming people are looking long term.
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Old 10-28-2008, 04:03 PM   #454
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I heard today that at a realtors meeting, some realtors we're gonna pull thier listings on houses they knew were listed for less the what was owed on them, to take some of the inventory out of the market...

I call shinagians on that. I doubt they could pull the listings, and even so how would they knows you don't have enough money to cover the mortage shortfall?... Either way gonna be ugly if we start seeing the "Forclosure" sales on the market...
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Old 11-04-2008, 12:34 PM   #455
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Cutting home prices key to sales success

MLS sales in Calgary metro for condos and single-family homes plunged in October compared with a year ago -- a trend that has continued throughout this year.

Statistics released Monday by the Calgary Real Estate Board show condo sales were down 20.4 per cent to 399 from October 2007, with 501 sales, while single-family home sales dropped by 26.3 per cent to 820 from last year's 1,113.


In the condo market, the average sale price decreased by 12.8 per cent to $289,148 while the median sale price fell by 7.3 per cent to $268,000. The average days on the market to sell a condo increased by 25 per cent to 50 days in October from 40 days in October 2007.

For the single-family home market, the average sale price dropped by 0.7 per cent to $449,100 and the median sale price fell by 5.5 per cent to $390,000. The average days on the market to sell a single-family home rose by 20 per cent to 48 days in October from 40 days in October 2007.


http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/...9-f69bd4939661
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Old 11-04-2008, 02:58 PM   #456
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Old 11-04-2008, 03:01 PM   #457
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I don't know what this one means, but it looks scary!

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Old 11-04-2008, 03:56 PM   #458
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I'm no real estate expert but simple "supply and demand" tells me house prices are still coming down...
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Old 11-04-2008, 04:56 PM   #459
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I think prices will still go down, but as someone mentioned above, if you're looking for your home and have a decent downpayment, it's a pretty good time to buy.

You have the benefit of being able to take your time and really find the home you love, be picky about everything and get into your dream home at a price you can afford. Prices may go down more, but that may also increase the amount of buyers and make you miss out on that perfect house because someone snatches it up first.
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Old 11-11-2008, 12:56 PM   #460
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House prices expected to fall for at least a year

The average price of a home sold in Canada will fall this year for the first time in a decade and might not even recover by 2010, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday.

The Ottawa-based group, which represents 100 boards across the country, updated its forecast in light of new economic conditions and now expects home prices to drop 0.6 per cent this year and 2.1 per cent next year. Three months ago the group was forecasting price increases for this year and next year.

http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/...d-4bcd98ce61a7
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