[Trade] Flames acquire Roman Horak and 2x 2011 2nd rd picks for Tim Erixon and 5th rd pick

[Ring of Fire]

^I know it's outdated. It is from the CBA in 2005 which is why I extrapolated based on a 64% increase below it.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by Ring of Fire

^I know it's outdated. It is from the CBA in 2005 which is why I extrapolated based on a 64% increase below it.

Ah I missed that. In that case, I'm not sure why you think the picks the Flames have to send back is immense. Presumably, a player you sign to an offer sheet will be worth its compensation. If you think Dubinsky is a $4M+ player, do you really think he's not worth a first and a third in a trade?

[Ring of Fire]

Originally Posted by FAN

Ah I missed that. In that case, I'm not sure why you think the picks the Flames have to send back is immense. Presumably, a player you sign to an offer sheet will be worth its compensation. If you think Dubinsky is a $4M+ player, do you really think he's not worth a first and a third in a trade?

Dubinsky is worth around that, however the point of the RFA offer sheet to get back at the Rangers was to handcuff them so they couldn't match. Offering more than Dubinsky is worth and then the Rangers not matching would result in an excessive loss of draft picks.

[Reign of Fire]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

Duhatchek said today (when he was on with Kerr) that people around the league have told him that Horak's upside is probably a "good minor league player"...

Wow that sucks

[Calgary4LIfe]

I think if a prospect does not agree to a max contract offer, then he can return to the draft - but is ineligible for all bonuses on his ELC and barred from the NHL for 1 year. Something like that anyways.

[Reign of Fire]

Originally Posted by FAN

In theory that sounds like a decent idea but in practice the effects of that rule change would be negligible. Erixon is the only post-lockout 1st rounder to refuse a bonafide offer from the team that drafted him. We see that many teams are pushing North American prospects to play in the CHL so they can be signed early. We see that many North American prospects are either going the CHL route or leaving college early in hopes of beginning their NHL careers as soon as possible. We also see European prospects sign with their NHL teams and get loaned back or make the jump to the AHL after a year. Many European prospects actually prefer to stay at least a year or two before heading over to North America as they prefer playing in Europe than in the CHL or AHL.

The biggest problem with your proposed rule change is that unlike prospects playing in the CHL and college, prospects playing in Europe get paid. You can force guys like Erixon to wait a year but it's really not much of a deterrance considering he can just play another year at home and earn a paycheck. The rule will deter prospects playing in the CHL from refusing to sign with the team that drafted him since many will be without a team to player for, but it really won't be much of a deterrance for Europeans.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

The rule should be that you have x amount of years to sign your prospect, at the end of that time there should be a set qualifying offer like RFA and you retain your prospect. If he does not want to sign with a club then the club can either trade him and have the time to do so they need or he can wait until he reaches UFA status. Players entering the draft should not have any advantage in where they end up playing, it is not fair to the team who drafts them.

Well since you found the problem with my proposal, I think dissentowner makes an even better proposal. If the player refuses to sign, a team can retain the prospect as long as they make an qualifying offer. The player can stay in Europe all he wants, and won't play in the NHL unless the team that drafted him is properly compensated and won't be surprised last minute like the Flames were with Erixon.

[calumniate]

Do you think maybe this is just backlash at our tendency to draft western hockey players? I don't blame Erixon in a way, this isn't a euro friendly place and especially in Abbotsford.

To me this makes the Aulie trade look really bad

[Lunatik]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

Sure, but a different era... people wouldn't overlook a St. Louis now...

late bloomers happen all the time... I don't know how a fan of a team with so many undrafted players can say that guys aren't overlooked. Where would we be without Gio, Glencross or Bourque? and then we have also had a good history of signing guys like Montador and Wilson... some players simply develop later, other will revamp their game out of sheer will to get in the NHL

20 is too young to rule a guy out, he needs to be given 1-2 years as a pro to see how he does.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by Ring of Fire

Dubinsky is worth around that, however the point of the RFA offer sheet to get back at the Rangers was to handcuff them so they couldn't match. Offering more than Dubinsky is worth and then the Rangers not matching would result in an excessive loss of draft picks.

Huh? You mean the point of the RFA offer sheet to get back at the Rangers was to force the Rangers to have Dubinsky at a higher cap hit right? Either way, the fact that that Dubinsky is worth the draft picks gives the Rangers extra incentive to match. And if they don't, it would hardly be an "excessive loss of draft picks" in my mind since Dubinsky would be worth those draft picks in your opinion and Dubinsky will only be 25. A first and a 3rd for a 25 year old player who you consider to be worth those draft picks is hardly an "excessive loss of draft picks."

Originally Posted by Reign of Fire

Well since you found the problem with my proposal, I think dissentowner makes an even better proposal. If the player refuses to sign, a team can retain the prospect as long as they make an qualifying offer. The player can stay in Europe all he wants, and won't play in the NHL unless the team that drafted him is properly compensated and won't be surprised last minute like the Flames were with Erixon.

Well that's almost like the old rule where you can draft an European and keep their rights for an eternity. I'm not sure the reasons behind the change but they did change it so I doubt they go back to the old rule. But the rule proposed by dissentowner would certainly push a prospect to sign with the team that drafted him much more than the rule you proposed.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by calumniate

To me this makes the Aulie trade look really bad

The Flames supposed defensive depth is now history as its now marginally stronger than their forward depth amongst their prospects. Unless one of those 2nd round picks turn into a top 3 forward or top 2 defenseman the Flames got totally bent over by the Rangers and the Erixon's and Co.

In regards to the Phaneuf deal Sutter was already giving up the best player in the deal and should have resisted moving the only prospect but we all know that the future was never his primary concern to him. That trade has been a disaster on all fronts as the Flames would have been better off trading Phaneuf for pick/prospects as they may one day have a quality player to show for the deal, Aulie to play this year, and a heck of a lot more cap space.

The last 2 years have been a disaster for the Flames with some very quality defensive players going (Phaneuf, Aulie, Erixon) out and overpaid junk coming in. Now they are going to have to count on guys like Pardy and Carson (if they can be retained) for quality minutes.

[Flame On]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

The Flames supposed defensive depth is now history as its now marginally stronger than their forward depth amongst their prospects. Unless one of those 2nd round picks turn into a top 3 forward or top 2 defenseman the Flames got totally bent over by the Rangers and the Erixon's and Co.

In regards to the Phaneuf deal Sutter was already giving up the best player in the deal and should have resisted moving the only prospect but we all know that the future was never his primary concern to him. That trade has been a disaster on all fronts as the Flames would have been better off trading Phaneuf for pick/prospects as they may one day have a quality player to show for the deal, Aulie to play this year, and a heck of a lot more cap space.

The last 2 years have been a disaster for the Flames with some very quality defensive players going (Phaneuf, Aulie, Erixon) out and overpaid junk coming in. Now they are going to have to count on guys like Pardy and Carson (if they can be retained) for quality minutes.

Counting on Pardy, that's going to get ugly.
Stralman was let go before being developed too. Not saying if I know if that's possible, he's -11 last year. But we are talking about development.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by Lunatik

late bloomers happen all the time... I don't know how a fan of a team with so many undrafted players can say that guys aren't overlooked. Where would we be without Gio, Glencross or Bourque? and then we have also had a good history of signing guys like Montador and Wilson... some players simply develop later, other will revamp their game out of sheer will to get in the NHL

20 is too young to rule a guy out, he needs to be given 1-2 years as a pro to see how he does.

I'm not sure what you are arguing. Horak isn't "overlooked" - Duha merely reported that NHL personnel types/scouts told him that Horak's upside is a "good AHLer". That probably means that he, like many good juniors, lacks the ability to do "his thing" at higher speed...
I'm not even saying that I agree or disagree - I don't know anything about Horak. I just mentioned what Duha said because I thought it might be of interest.

[FlamesAddiction]

Horak seems like a decent prospect for where he was drafted. He's probably the same calibre of prospect as Howse, Reinhart and Wahl. All of them probably have less than a 50% chance of ever being impact NHLers, but there is a chance that at least one of them will be. If you throw enough at the wall, some of it will eventually stick.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Flame On

Counting on Pardy, that's going to get ugly.
Stralman was let go before being developed too. Not saying if I know if that's possible, he's -11 last year. But we are talking about development.

Well the team probably had Erixon and possibly even Brodie pencilled in for the 5th/6th spots and now that's out the door. If Brodie has a camp like last year I would think he stays but you know Brent will likely have him in and out of the pressbox at times so they are going to need at least two more guys to rotate in and out. Carson and Pardy won't be hard to keep and I doubt Staios will be back. There will always be the chance of signing a UFA as well but it's likely going to be from the bargain bin.

[sworkhard]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Well the team probably had Erixon and possibly even Brodie pencilled in for the 5th/6th spots and now that's out the door. If Brodie has a camp like last year I would think he stays but you know Brent will likely have him in and out of the pressbox at times so they are going to need at least two more guys to rotate in and out. Carson and Pardy won't be hard to keep and I doubt Staios will be back. There will always be the chance of signing a UFA as well but it's likely going to be from the bargain bin.

Although Brodie would likely be in and out of the lineup, if it's on a 3games in / 3game out rotation or something like that, it could be really good for his development. By letting him play a few games in a row he can apply what he learns, and by getting him out of the linup on a regular schedule, he can boost his strength over the course of the season, and work more conistently with the coaches to improve his game. It would also keep the pressure on Pardy, Carson, and Sarich (if the are the other bottom 3 defensemen) to perform and allow them some days off if they get a small, but nagging injury.

[Flamesguy_SJ]

I have a feeling Negrin will have a good showing at camp this year. Now that he's finally healthy, he's got an opportunity to train full-on for the first time since turning pro and I think that will make a big difference in his performance. He's my darkhorse to make the team out of camp with the loss of Erixon.

[Lunatik]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

I'm not sure what you are arguing. Horak isn't "overlooked" - Duha merely reported that NHL personnel types/scouts told him that Horak's upside is a "good AHLer". That probably means that he, like many good juniors, lacks the ability to do "his thing" at higher speed...
I'm not even saying that I agree or disagree - I don't know anything about Horak. I just mentioned what Duha said because I thought it might be of interest.

regardless if its you or Duha saying it, how does anyone know if a player lacks the ability to do something at a higher speed when he has yet to have the chance to do it at the higher speed. These are the same scouts that resulted in a guy like Patric Hornqvist being drafted last overall, I have no doubt that a guy like Horak would be 2-3 years away, but for a scout to write him off already is premature

[Lunatik]

Originally Posted by Flamesguy_SJ

I have a feeling Negrin will have a good showing at camp this year. Now that he's finally healthy, he's got an opportunity to train full-on for the first time since turning pro and I think that will make a big difference in his performance. He's my darkhorse to make the team out of camp with the loss of Erixon.

I agree with this, the kid has had nothing but hard luck with a broken kneecap, botched diagnosis of the broken kneecap, broken wrist and surgery to clean up 'junk' left behind from the broke kneecap. I know he only played 3 games straight out of junior but I thought he looked pretty good, I think he has it in him to make the club given that he is healthy

[sworkhard]

Originally Posted by Lunatik

I agree with this, the kid has had nothing but hard luck with a broken kneecap, botched diagnosis of the broken kneecap, broken wrist and surgery to clean up 'junk' left behind from the broke kneecap. I know he only played 3 games straight out of junior but I thought he looked pretty good, I think he has it in him to make the club given that he is healthy

I'd be surprised if he makes it out of camp, but not if he makes it as a callup. He hasn't really played enough to really finish rounding out his game. He only played 24 games last season after pretty much not playing for a year and a half. I think he might be physically ready, but probably needs some time in Abbostford before hes completely ready for the NHL, simply because of how little he's played the last couple of years.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Lunatik

regardless if its you or Duha saying it, how does anyone know if a player lacks the ability to do something at a higher speed when he has yet to have the chance to do it at the higher speed. These are the same scouts that resulted in a guy like Patric Hornqvist being drafted last overall, I have no doubt that a guy like Horak would be 2-3 years away, but for a scout to write him off already is premature

They are also the same scouts that resulted in 90% of late round picks not making it. Hornqvist is a nice story but he is the exception and not the rule. Scouts much, much more often get it right when it comes to late round guys.

Horak was a 5th round pick for a reason and there is nothing to indicate that he will even be a mediocre AHLer so saying he may be a good AHLer is pretty good for him.