[Trade] Flames get Travis Hamonic + 4th for a 1st and 2x2nds

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

It's also not like Hamonic is 30 years old. Basically, there's potentially a five year window here if they can get some more production and consistent goaltending. Hamonic is going to be a key contributor throughout that window, unless the concerns about injuries are borne out.

[Love]

I think it'd be a good idea to re-sign Stone to like a 3 year deal, just because he would bring stability to that bottom pair and could fill in in the top 4 in a pinch if/when injuries occur. He would also be a great trade chip in about 2 years when guys like Valimaki, Andersson, Kylington or Fox are banging on the doors (or surpassing him). Could get a nice asset back for an expendable player on an expiring contract, while freeing up cap room for guys like Brodie and Hamonic (and potentially Bennett if he signs a 3 year bridge).

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Just out of curiosity, if not now then when would it be a good time to jump into win now mode? We've been rebuilding for about five years since around 2012/13, we've made the playoffs twice, and have really only faltered because of goaltending.

Now we've traded for what we perceive to be a number one goalie (I know you could argue we did that last season, too), we've pretty much got all the stars we're getting from draft picks and will now be making the playoffs regularly with lower picks. Our prime picks have almost all started or are in their primes.

What would you wait for at this point to start making Hamonic type moves to become a contender? I'm guessing your contention may lie more with the fact that we spent those kinds of picks at any point, as it's hard to argue we should continue waiting and wasting Gaudreau's time with the organization to maybe go for it later.

It's a great question. To me it seems they wanted to strike while Gio was putting up good years when Hamilton is the guy who is really going to be the #1 D and they guy you build around. Perhaps you do those moves when Hamilton firmly establishes himself in that role (1-2 years)? Until then you keep your top picks and get difference makers. Again I could be wrong.

Having said that Hamonic is a great piece and there is a cost. Your point with Gaudreau is a good one as well.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Hamilton is about to enter his prime if he's not already in it. Monahan and Johnny are clearly in theirs. Now seems like a pretty good time to do it.

[Love]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Hamilton is about to enter his prime if he's not already in it. Monahan and Johnny are clearly in theirs. Now seems like a pretty good time to do it.

Hopefully Monahan isn't in his prime yet

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski

It's a great question. To me it seems they wanted to strike while Gio was putting up good years when Hamilton is the guy who is really going to be the #1 D and they guy you build around. Perhaps you do those moves when Hamilton firmly establishes himself in that role (1-2 years)? Until then you keep your top picks and get difference makers. Again I could be wrong.

Having said that Hamonic is a great piece and there is a cost. Your point with Gaudreau is a good one as well.

Yeah, none of us know for sure and I've been a little guilty of being overconfident in my opinion lately, I think. But if you're waiting for Hamilton to take over for Gio before going all in then I think you for sure have to consider that there's a very, very good chance we don't have Gaudreau after his current contract.

So basically five years, which Hamonic fits perfectly into. I think you bank on what we currently have with a strong Mark Giordano a strong Hamilton and a still here Johnny Gaudreau as opposed to stronger Hamilton, a declining Giordano and a possibly not here Johnny Gaudreau.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Also I'd like to see who the future number one goalie turns out to be. The build from the net out plan. I can see Hamilton and Monahan but no goalie yet. I'd go for it all when that triad (G -D - C) is firmly established.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Love

Hopefully Monahan isn't in his prime yet

On average, forwards reach their peak around 22 and stay about in the same spot for ~4 years. Monahan's 22 now, so if he follows that track, he'll be as good as he's going to get in the next few seasons. There are exceptions to every rule, but if you're playing the percentages and want to strike while the iron's hot, it's time to make a push.

https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23...katers-part-1/

https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/04/10...katers-part-2/

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I don't think it is just one player. From Treliving's interviews and his activity over the course of his tenure we can see that he prioritizes 1) centre depth, and 2) a strong defense.

*EDIT* To continue with your point, it looks to me as though management is laying the groundwork for a transition plan for when Giordano's age becomes a factor. The team is not "tied" to any individual player. I expect that Treliving believes they can continue to be highly competitive beyond the next five years.

Yeah I can see this, especially in Treliving's comments. He talks about the group of centres saying they believe in the group.

Maybe instead of individual foundational players they are going for strength in the aggregate?

I'm more old school I guess in that I prefer building around those foundational players.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

It's also kind of just playing the hand you're dealt. Treliving doesn't have a Connor McDavid or John Tavares to build around, they're hard to get. So you have to try to win by committee and have strength up and down the lineup, a la St. Louis Blues.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Love

Hopefully Monahan isn't in his prime yet

As corsi pointed out, he probably is at or near it, and I've seen charts that show (on average) forwards produce within 10% of their peak starting around age 23 through to 29.

An incredibly consistent 30-30 guy who is improving defensively makes for a great young player and potentially a great top line center. If he takes another offensive production step? We're laughing.

[Mony]

I would like to point out I'm not really an advanced stats person nor a simply "watch the games/did you even play the sport growing up?" person. I am pretty much neutral but I think the way the league is trending towards a numbers/math game is the future of predicting player success.

I will be cautiously optimistic about Hamonic. I think the trade makes a lot of sense and I'm hoping for a rebound season from him. Personality wise, he will fit in this team perfectly with his charity work and all around exceptional character and there's a good chance he fits Brodie like a glove.

Case in point, this article from this morning from FlamesNation:
It's both a stats-y chart, but it's done in a way that visually I believe anyone can understand it.


The teal is Brodie. The orange is Hamonic. As pointed out in the article, Brodie and Hamonic are in some ways yin to yang. Brodie's strengths are Hamonic's weaknesses, Hamonic's strengths are Brodie's weaknesses. They could balance each other perfectly.


Here is Hamonic's chart with the Islanders from last year. Leddy is blue, Hamonic is orange. Notice how Brodie's chart shape above is very similar to Leddy.

Finally let's look at the Flames last year, and namely Stone:

Brodie is the teal all the same of course. Wideman is the peach-brown... Stone is the purple. I watched the games last year, and yes, I do think Brodie looked better once Stone came into the fold. But the whole team's percentages went up during that ten-game win streak and we all hate this word, but obviously it wasn't sustainable and I don't believe Stone had any real correlation to that, he was pretty much riding the wave with the rest of the team. I'm not completely opposed to bringing Stone back, but if we do bring him back he needs to be paid for bottom-pairing money and not for more than 1 year. Injuries happen and the depth is good to have, but he needs to be paid and looked at appropriately.

Note that the above charts are just a simple tool and they aren't the be-all, end-all, and I do not intend them to be their word above everyone else, but it is very interesting and food for thought when we bring up the argument that Hamonic is only marginally better than Stone and the reasons for bringing Stone back.

I'm a fan of the Hamonic acquisition. We have to see how it pans out but it could turn out quite well.

[StrykerSteve]

Originally Posted by jayswin

I admittedly purposely watch hockey without a significant analytics understanding. All I will say is that by the eye test Brodie looked to have a huge turn around after being paired with Stone and Stone himself seemed to calm our defensive core down. You could just see when you were watching the games.

I don't know, I guess if the cold, calculated side of hockey "watching" says the opposite I'll defer to that, but geez it's hard to see it that way simply from physically watching the games.

Agreed. I was a huge fan of Stone and the impact he had on the team.

[IrishSpring2013]

by committee is a little disengenious... all things considered... only 25 guys hit 30 goals last year and cgy has 2 guys who have hit that mark and could easly do it and beyond... this isnt a bunch of plucky 15-20 goal scorers..

maybe its by committee.. but its a pretty darn good one... john tavaras isnt lightyears ahead of monahan either... tavaras has never hit 40 goals and mostly hovered around 30... u cant tell me monahan won't attempt a couple 40 goal seasons, not with that wicked shot

[jayswin]

I'm probably in the minority but I'd give up Bennett plus Monahan plus even another good prospect for John Tavares to attempt to fit more of the standard Stanley Cup winning model of having at least one super star player.

People lose their minds at stuff like that, but if it was available (and we had reasonable assurance that he'd re-sign here) I'd be all over it despite how much we give up. That's how important that top end talent is.

Gaudreau - Tavares - Tkachuk
Versteeg - Backlund - Frolik
Lazar - Jankowski - Brouwer

[lazypucker]

The Flames need to rid themselves of the $10-million 4th line of Bouma-Stajan-Brouwer before they can add pieces to really make a run for the cup.

[TheScorpion]

We have one super star player, and his name is Johnny Gaudreau. Trading Monahan AND Bennett AND another good prospect for Tavares really isn't very smart asset management. For all we know, Bennett turns into that guy, or maybe Monahan continues improving into an 80-point guy.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

It's also kind of just playing the hand you're dealt. Treliving doesn't have a Connor McDavid or John Tavares to build around, they're hard to get. So you have to try to win by committee and have strength up and down the lineup, a la St. Louis Blues.

It kind of begs the question of what team has won it all with the committee?

EDIT: I guess Chicago would be the model.

[IrishSpring2013]

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski

It kind of begs the question of what team has won it all with the committee?

La kings.
kopiar had 76 and 70 points each year they won..
2nd leading scorers were williams with 59 in 2012 and carter in 2014 with a mere 50

nashville made it a hair of the cup with two guys leading there team barely breaking 60 points.
this isnt unheard of

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski

It kind of begs the question of what team has won it all with the committee?

The Kings.

And frankly, the Blues have been built to win for a while and the fact that they haven't has been due to having to deal with the King's and Blackhawks, and losing a series to those teams is nothing to be ashamed of. They just haven't had the luck.