View Poll Results: Assuming a term of 7 years what will Gaudreau's AAV end up being?
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6.500 - 6.625
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9 |
1.28% |
6.625 - 6.750
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5 |
0.71% |
6.750 - 6.875
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21 |
2.99% |
6.875 - 7.000
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59 |
8.40% |
7.000 - 7.125
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89 |
12.68% |
7.125 - 7.250
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85 |
12.11% |
7.250 - 7.375
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112 |
15.95% |
7.375 - 7.500
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102 |
14.53% |
7.500 - 7.625
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71 |
10.11% |
7.625 - 7.750
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38 |
5.41% |
7.750 - 7.875
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39 |
5.56% |
7.875 - 8.000
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33 |
4.70% |
8.000 - 8.125
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21 |
2.99% |
8.125 - 8.250
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6 |
0.85% |
8.250 - 8.375
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1 |
0.14% |
8.375 - 8.500
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11 |
1.57% |
09-15-2016, 01:07 PM
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#1621
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
Its amazing the lengths some here have gone in an attempt to discredit Gaudreau.
Do you guys really believe that he is a good comparable to Eberle? That he's all razzle dazzle? That he's unlikely to continue being a top scorer?
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That is not what people believe, but a long term commitment to a young player is a double edged sword. It has the promise of great potential, but also offers great risk. If you remember how well Phaneuf did with the Flames during his ELC, he looked like a future Norris winner. After he signed a 6x$6.5M contract, his weaknesses were exposed a lot more, and he never lived up to the hype.
At the moment you only concentrate on the potential side of things, as a result people emphasize the weaknesses to try and get through to you. Most posters just try to point out it is not as black and white as you make it to be; there are a lot of shades of grey in between.
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09-15-2016, 01:08 PM
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#1622
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Sylvan Lake
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm
We're pretty busy working on a bigger case, one that could rock the foundation of multiple account posters. It's such a big deal we've begun referring to it as our million dollar case because of how rich we'll be.
That being said it's clear this guy is the Devils fan from hfboards WhiskeyIsYourDevil that others have pointed out. It's clear he has no affection for the Flames and loves Jersey boy Gaudreau.
Dink out.
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Put it away.
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Corporal Jean-Marc H. BECHARD, 6 Aug 1993
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09-15-2016, 01:10 PM
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#1623
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
Its amazing the lengths some here have gone in an attempt to discredit Gaudreau.
Do you guys really believe that he is a good comparable to Eberle? That he's all razzle dazzle? That he's unlikely to continue being a top scorer?
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go back in a time machine to 2012 when Eberle was coming off his 34 goals 76 pts season on a crappy (74 pt team similar to 77 the Gaudreau led Flames put up) Oiler team. There was clear cut consensus that while RHN and Hall had a lot of potential Eberle was the real deal and would be a top player on any team. He was Mr. Clutch scoring huge goals.
He has continued on to have a pretty good career with similar style (no contact Lady Byng worthy razzle dazzle) to Gaudreau.
Eberle was 2nd in lady byng voting in 2012, Gaudreau 4th in 2016.
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09-15-2016, 01:12 PM
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#1624
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gvitaly
That is not what people believe, but a long term commitment to a young player is a double edged sword. It has the promise of great potential, but also offers great risk. If you remember how well Phaneuf did with the Flames during his ELC, he looked like a future Norris winner. After he signed a 6x$6.5M contract, his weaknesses were exposed a lot more, and he never lived up to the hype.
At the moment you only concentrate on the potential side of things, as a result people emphasize the weaknesses to try and get through to you. Most posters just try to point out it is not as black and white as you make it to be; there are a lot of shades of grey in between.
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Yup. I've avoided saying Gaudreau might not be as good in the future as his promise has suggested both because I don't think it will happen and because I don't want it to happen. But it's a risk with a 2 year player. A risk that must be compensated for just like promise is compensated for. Otherwise we should have only 1 year UFA contracts for everyone.
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09-15-2016, 01:17 PM
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#1625
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Scoring Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
Its amazing the lengths some here have gone in an attempt to discredit Gaudreau.
Do you guys really believe that he is a good comparable to Eberle? That he's all razzle dazzle? That he's unlikely to continue being a top scorer?
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If people were comparing him to Eberle, wouldn't people be suggesting a 6 year $4M contract (once you factor in inflation and overpayment)? I don't see any of that. People are just showing a cautionary tale that winger lose value quickly if they underperform their contract.
I think some people (myself included) aren't ready to pay him like a guaranteed top scorer in the league over the next 7 years like you are. You have to factor a bit of risk into the equation to protect the team just in case he underperforms. $7M per year is my max - which reflects his high offensive upside and pays him much more than similar yet lesser promising prospects like Monahan, MacKinnon, Schiefele, etc. Once you get past that amount, I start looking at comparables and Monahan + cap space looks much more valuable compared to Gaudreau at anything in the $7.5M range.
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09-15-2016, 01:18 PM
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#1626
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw
go back in a time machine to 2012 when Eberle was coming off his 34 goals 76 pts season on a crappy (74 pt team similar to 77 the Gaudreau led Flames put up) Oiler team. There was clear cut consensus that while RHN and Hall had a lot of potential Eberle was the real deal and would be a top player on any team. He was Mr. Clutch scoring huge goals.
He has continued on to have a pretty good career with similar style (no contact Lady Byng worthy razzle dazzle) to Gaudreau.
Eberle was 2nd in lady byng voting in 2012, Gaudreau 4th in 2016.
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What is the most you would pay Gaudreau on a 8 year deal if you were the GM?
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09-15-2016, 01:26 PM
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#1627
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2macinnis2
>>> is strong. I would leave it at a simple >.
Gaudreau is dripping with potential just as Kane was then. A comparable contract seems fair.
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Being a Key player in a SC run, actually 2... winning 6 playoff series on his ELC... was not potential, it was results
Prospective .... Iginla won was on 3 series winning teams with the Flames and another 3 as a hired gun... Kane delivered more in results in his first 3 years than Iginla did in his 20 years.
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09-15-2016, 01:37 PM
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#1628
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheoFleury
What is the most you would pay Gaudreau on a 8 year deal if you were the GM?
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4x2, 5x2, Then the arbitration year and 3 UFA years 8x4
50 /8 = 6.25
But as I have stated I would rather overpay on the bridge (5x2) to see how he does under a real NHL system rather than the run and gun Hartley Flying circus.
Trying to get a deal on Gaudreau's 30-31 year old seasons (8 M rather than 10M) is a significant risk to the viability of a winning team.
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09-15-2016, 01:42 PM
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#1629
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Lifetime Suspension
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Quote:
Originally Posted by undercoverbrother
Put it away.
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Name wouldn't be MMF if that went away, bro!
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09-15-2016, 01:53 PM
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#1630
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frequitude
The cap has risen 23% since 2010 when Kane signed that contract ($59.4M to $73.0M) which means Kane's contract was pretty damn big for the time. Using your RFA/UFA assumptions and 23% cap inflation, it basically translates to RFA=$7.1M and UFA=$9.8M for an AAV of $7.7M.
We'd all be crapping our pants if Johnny signed 6x$7.7M!
Now you do qualify it with Johnny being less productive than Kane, but just want to point out that Kane's contract was mighty rich for a RFA.
edit: looks like I'm the third to reply with the same concept! And we all have somehow different numbers! I think it's because I just chose to anchor it off of the actual 10-11 salary cap which was Kane's contract's first year.
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You can't simply take a contract from a past era (things have changed a lot in a few short years), apply an inflation adjustment, and say presto!
The annual cap-inflation was much higher then (5 - 6% annually). It is basically zero right now.
When the cap is rising at 5-6% per year, paying someone 11% of the cap is not a big deal because that percentage plummets as inflation takes effect.
But if the cap is expected to rise only marginally, a contract eating up 11% of the cap would cripple a team.
Then there is the little detail that Kane had, you know, won a cup.
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09-15-2016, 01:56 PM
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#1631
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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Kane signed his second contract in December 2009, before Chicago had won the Cup.
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Turn up the good, turn down the suck!
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09-15-2016, 01:58 PM
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#1632
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Franchise Player
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By the way, I did some quick analysis on what impact the Vegas Knights will have on the cap. Had to use rough numbers, but they would be generally applicable.
Based largely on the fact that TV revenues wouldn't change much (they might have a small local deal, but the national deal would be unchanged), the impact of an additional team (also assuming average gates - which I think is optimistic, and above average merchandise) would be roughly:
- $1M
Then factor in the Canadian dollar weakness, and it is reasonable to suggest that the cap could be largely unchanged for the next 2 or 3 years.
Shooting the wad on a big contract for Gaudreau, based on inflation, would be suicide.
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09-15-2016, 01:59 PM
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#1633
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by getbak
Kane signed his second contract in December 2009, before Chicago had won the Cup.
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Well, the Hawks knew they were about to win the cup!
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09-15-2016, 02:03 PM
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#1634
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Amherst, MA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoJetsGo
From the above video

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For context it would be nice to see what other "Johansen" contracts exist ($6M/y), especially wingers, and signed in last 2 seasons.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk
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09-15-2016, 02:04 PM
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#1635
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw
4x2, 5x2, Then the arbitration year and 3 UFA years 8x4
50 /8 = 6.25
But as I have stated I would rather overpay on the bridge (5x2) to see how he does under a real NHL system rather than the run and gun Hartley Flying circus.
Trying to get a deal on Gaudreau's 30-31 year old seasons (8 M rather than 10M) is a significant risk to the viability of a winning team.
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I can see your logic but Gaudreau sure wouldn't. Where would you start negotiations? $5.5mx8? Or would $6.25mx8 just be a take it or leave it type thing?
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09-15-2016, 02:07 PM
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#1636
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheoFleury
I can see your logic but Gaudreau sure wouldn't. Where would you start negotiations? $5.5mx8? Or would $6.25mx8 just be a take it or leave it type thing?
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If you want long term it will be 6.25 x8 if you don't want long term I would start at 3.5 for 2 years.... more than we have to pay you and more than you can get anywhere else, but I'd be willing to move up on that. maybe with a promise to look at an extension provide the team makes the playoffs, etc.
Last edited by ricardodw; 09-15-2016 at 02:11 PM.
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09-15-2016, 02:10 PM
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#1637
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Income Tax Central
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
By the way, I did some quick analysis on what impact the Vegas Knights will have on the cap. Had to use rough numbers, but they would be generally applicable.
Based largely on the fact that TV revenues wouldn't change much (they might have a small local deal, but the national deal would be unchanged), the impact of an additional team (also assuming average gates - which I think is optimistic, and above average merchandise) would be roughly:
- $1M
Then factor in the Canadian dollar weakness, and it is reasonable to suggest that the cap could be largely unchanged for the next 2 or 3 years.
Shooting the wad on a big contract for Gaudreau, based on inflation, would be suicide.
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'Largely Unchanged' I can agree with but the PA will use their 5%(?) Escalator every year. So over 3 years thats still a decent increase.
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09-15-2016, 02:15 PM
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#1638
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Boxed-in
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Can JG still accept his Qualifying Offer? Does one more year give him offer-sheet & arbitration rights? If that's the case, then his biggest point of leverage is not a holdout, but to simply say "give me the million bucks & we'll do this again next summer."
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09-15-2016, 02:15 PM
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#1639
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoJetsGo
From the above video

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This tells me is that Tarasenko's contract is out of whack. And maybe something about the value of only RFA years (Johansen's contract). It says almost nothing about JG's since he has a different PPG than everyone else (to his credit) and different RFA rights (to his detriment).
Last edited by GioforPM; 09-15-2016 at 02:22 PM.
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09-15-2016, 02:15 PM
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#1640
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In the Sin Bin
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Taresenko has been playing a lot longer. Not a fair comparison.
Johnny could very well drop to .82
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