Friedman: Gaudreau negotiations will be put on hold during World Cup

[Enoch Root]

Apologies for the long post, but I think this is necessary...

One thing people need to understand, with respect to long term contracts, is that they are guaranteed, even though the future is uncertain.

You can’t simply project an optimistic scenario and say: I believe player X will be this good so he should be paid that much. Like with any forecasting, you have to project various different possible outcomes, and assign probabilities to the likelihood of them happening.

In other words, you have to establish a projected distribution of outcomes.

It isn’t just about their ceiling – you have to factor in the likelihood of them achieving that – consistently – as well as the likelihood of other possible scenarios.

When you are projecting the future, you have to assess probabilities. After his rookie season, who predicted that Phaneuf wouldn’t be a star for many years? No one that I saw. But it turned out that he didn’t live up to expectations. It happens.

So when you are signing a player to a 7 or 8 year deal - that is guaranteed – you have to factor in probabilities of all possible outcomes, not just the most optimistic.

Look at the contracts that have been signed this year with Monahan, MacKinnon, Scheifele, Forsberg, and others. All in the $6M per year range. ALL of those players are projected to be stars. Each team, and each player, hopes they will be worth more than that – the optimistic scenario for each one is higher – maybe much higher – than the AAV suggests.

So why did they sign them? Are they stupid? No. It is because the contracts are guaranteed. And therefore factor in a distribution of multiple scenarios, including the risk that they don’t come anywhere near their potential ceilings.

By asking for $8M, the Gaudreau camp is basically arguing for an optimistic scenario only. Is Gaudreau going to be a better player than all of the about players? Maybe. But his camp needs to understand that that is not a certainty by any stretch.

Does he deserve a larger contract than those players? Yes, IMO, because he outperformed them over the last two years.

But how much more? Can he justify $1.5 - $2M per year more than those players? Not a chance IMO. I can see $500k more – that seems reasonable, and justified. But any more than that seems wildly optimistic.

Ekblad is getting more, he signed for $7.5M. But Ekblad has a much longer track record of performing at the very highest level for his age. The probability that Ekblad continues to perform at the most elite level is higher, because he has been doing it longer.

This is why pedigree comes up. Does it matter where a player was drafted? No, what matters is how you play now. However, when forecasting the future, a more consistent track record leads to more confidence in your projections.

Then there is also the issue that Gauderau has 5 years of RFA vs only 4 years for Ekblad. Despite the fact that some people who are arguing for more money for Gaudreau continue to ignore this issue, it is nonetheless a significant factor.

It seems to me that the reasonable number is somewhere in between Ekblad and the rest of those players. And that suggests $6.75 - $7M per.

You can’t simply project an optimistic scenario and pay a player that much. Proper risk management must consider a distribution of possible outcomes.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

He got 6 points against Chicago though...The guy had 9 goals in 20 games in the playoffs despite having a bad Conference Finals. St. Louis is not regretting that contract, despite one time playing him for 15 minutes because of a bad game.

At 7.5M you'd better see him for more than 15 minutes. He only hit 20 5 times in 20 playoff games.

Flames have two forwards playing 20 minutes a night on average, you'd hope they'd be the team's two highest paid players and they are (will be)

Tarasenko had the 4th highest minutes amongst forwards.

And as an aside, I'm not suggesting St. Louis thinks it's a bad contract, I personally think you don't over pay for one attribute.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Bingo

At 7.5M you'd better see him for more than 15 minutes. He only hit 20 5 times in 20 playoff games.

Flames have two forwards playing 20 minutes a night on average, you'd hope they'd be the team's two highest paid players and they are (will be)

Tarasenko had the 4th highest minutes amongst forwards.

And as an aside, I'm not suggesting St. Louis thinks it's a bad contract, I personally think you don't over pay for one attribute.

Malkin hit 20 minutes twice.

Imagine how good Pittsburgh will be when they get rid of his anchor of a contract.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Malkin hit 20 minutes twice.

Imagine how good Pittsburgh will be when they get rid of his anchor of a contract.

Malkin was coming off a pretty serious injury that had him doubtful to even play in the playoffs.

And the Pens have another guy up the middle that might command more ice time.

Though you can certainly make a good argument that Malkin is somewhat overpaid for a team that has the better center on the planet already paid handsomely.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Tarasenko averaged 18 minutes a game in the playoffs, that's more than Malkin and many other players. He lead his team in scoring, he lead his team in goal scoring, despite being neutralized in the Conference Finals. Maybe his wife giving birth during Game 2 had something to do with that, but still it's quite obvious you need to stretch to bring up a bad Conference Finals as evidence of a bad contract. The Blues don't make the conference finals, heck they don't make the playoffs, without Tarasenko.

The guy got 40 goals, 4th in the league and 1 goal behind Benn. He put up 74 points when his next highest team mate put up 52. He was by far and away the best player on a team that reached the Conference Finals. And he's making 7.5M. This isn't 2006 anymore, 7.5M is an absolute bargain for what he brings. UFA players of Tarasenko ilk are getting minimum 10 million a year if they want it. Of course the RFA years helped St. Louis get him down to 7.5M, along with the uncertainty over what he had proven before his contract, but to argue that it's a bad contract, like Enoch Root did, is crazy.

[StrykerSteve]

He scored 78 points last season. He's going to get a contract in the range of 7.5-7.8M. Everyone needs to relax, it'll happen in the next two weeks.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

He scored 78 points last season. He's going to get a contract in the range of 7.5-7.8M. Everyone needs to relax, it'll happen in the next two weeks.

I find your $100K/Point theory intriguing.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

You can’t simply project an optimistic scenario and pay a player that much. Proper risk management must consider a distribution of possible outcomes.

Great post Enoch.

I think everyone is a little obsessed over the idea that he COULD become the next Kane, or Datsyuk (though it's worth noting that he's a full step below where Kane was at the same age, it's a lofty dream to hope he becomes that).

What is more likely? That he becomes the next Cammalleri, Tanguay, or Kessel. Not slouches by any means, but are they guys who you want to commit a huge cap hit to in their prime? Did any of them prove to be worth building around? Their careers were never bad, but never top-billing either.

What's just as likely as becoming a Kane or a Datsyuk? Not even coming close. He could be the next Hemsky, or Semin, or Ribeiro.

One PPG season does not a superstar make. It's not a rare thing to do here and there for a top 6 winger. The danger is paying him for who you want him to become, and not considering who he might end up as.

I'm not saying he can't become a superstar, but at his age the odds of him experiencing huge gains in production aren't high. The elite guys, the generational talents like Ovie and Crosby, were showing up the whole league in season #1, not flirting with a point-per-game and hitting 6th in scoring in season #2.

[Frequitude]

I'd love to see a poll: Will Gaudreau's contract end up being over or under $7.25M?

(though I guess term comes into it, so never mind?)

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Though you can certainly make a good argument that Malkin is somewhat overpaid.

No you couldn't. For the past 5 years the top players have been making 10M+ in actual salary. We're not just talking Crosby and Ovechkin, but Parise and Suter. And Malkin is making under 10M. He's a bargain contract.

[TheScorpion]

Gaudreau is already prime PPG Cammalleri, and he's arguably already better than Tanguay ever was. There's no similarity to Kessel whatsoever, they're entirely different players.

Still, Treliving needs to continue holding off on striking a deal until Gaudreau backs down a bit.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

No you couldn't. For the past 5 years the top players have been making 10M+ in actual salary. We're not just talking Crosby and Ovechkin, but Parise and Suter. And Malkin is making under 10M. He's a bargain contract.

Yes...but those are bad contracts. And they should feel bad.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Gaudreau is already prime PPG Cammalleri, and he's arguably already better than Tanguay ever was. There's no similarity to Kessel whatsoever, they're entirely different players.

Still, Treliving needs to continue holding off on striking a deal until Gaudreau backs down a bit.

Yeah, maybe. Every player is a little bit different than every other player, those are true comparables.

I mean, how can you possibly figure he's better? You're working with 1 good season. He might be, he might not be.

This is my point, and the point I believe Enoch is making. People are saying "Gaudreau is already ____" when Gaudreau isn't ANYTHING yet. There are things he could be, but he's had ONE good season.

The NHL history is filled to the brim with guys who put up a couple "good" seasons over a 15 year career. Let's stop acting like anything Gaudreau has done has cemented his legacy.

[442scotty]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

He scored 78 points last season. He's going to get a contract in the range of 7.5-7.8M. Everyone needs to relax, it'll happen in the next two weeks.

I agree .. Can't see him getting less than 7.5 per

[TheScorpion]

Yeah, but Pepsi -- Tanguay put up his PPG seasons in his mid-20s, at ages 25, 26, and 27. 22-year-old Gaudreau has already put up a 0.99 PPG season at age 22. Same with Cammalleri -- in his best year (08-09), he was 27. Gaudreau has shown more for his age so far. He's en route to easily surpassing these players.

Key word, though: en route.

[BigFlameDog]

Originally Posted by dabrit

Seen as I've seen him make highlight plays against the likes of Chicago( Stanley cup champs at the time) LA( two time stanley cup champs got a hat trick) Boston( big brusing team, another hat trick) New York( were in the eastern conference final year before, another big bruising team put up 2 goals against them)

I'd say it's safe it doesn't seem to matter what the opposition. Johnny Be Real Gaudreau... he just continues to score.

For the love of god pay this guy before we piss him off and he goes to Europe only to leave us the following year. This is pissing me and many people off he is our offense. If management thinks they are signing him for anything less than 7 then clearly they aren't serious about keeping him and I'm going to storm their office with a pitch fork...I know I wont' be alone

I can't believe someone thanked this post #Gaudreauvertime

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

What is more likely? That he becomes the next Cammalleri, Tanguay, or Kessel. Not slouches by any means, but are they guys who you want to commit a huge cap hit to in their prime?

He could be the next Hemsky, or Semin, or Ribeiro.

Huge cap hit? Assuming a general 7M-7.5M for a long-term 8 year contract for Gaudreau, is that a huge cap-hit compared to those guys?

Tanguay had a 5.25M cap hit in 2006-2007. That was 12% of the cap.

12% of the cap today is 8.76M.

Cammalleri had a 6M cap hit in 2009-2010. That was 11% of the cap.

11% of the cap today is 8.03M.

Kessel had a 5.4M cap hit, as an RFA, in 2009-2010. That was 10% of the cap.

10% of the cap today is 7.3M.

Hemsky had a 4.1M cap hit, as an RFA, in 2006-2007. That was 9.5% of the cap.

9.5% of the cap today is 6.9M

Ribeiro had a 5M cap hit in 2008-2009. That was 9% of the cap.

9% of the cap today is 6.6M.

Hemsky had his breakout year, a single good year, before getting an RFA contract that works out to be roughly 7M today in terms of percentage of the cap. Gaudreau is even more proven than Hemsky was back then. For as much as we like to make fun of the Oilers, Hemsky's 6 year contract was never an albatross. It might have been one of the few good things going for them. Now, sure, there's more than just salary cap inflation so this is a bit rudimentary but a 7M contract is not 'huge'. Not when the best players are getting 10M+

[BigFlameDog]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Yeah, but Pepsi -- Tanguay put up his PPG seasons in his mid-20s, at ages 25, 26, and 27. 22-year-old Gaudreau has already put up a 0.99 PPG season at age 22. Same with Cammalleri -- in his best year (08-09), he was 27. Gaudreau has shown more for his age so far. He's en route to easily surpassing these players.

Key word, though: en route.

Yeah but when Tanguay was Johnny's age you could still water ski behind a forward on a back check...context. Pretty much impossible to compare era's anymore....which is a good thing IMO. Much better product today.

[EldrickOnIce]

It's probably been brought up several times, but maybe Eberle is the best examples of the risk Enoch talks about, after a fantastic start to a career by a player.

2010-11 Edmonton Oilers NHL 69 18 25 43
2011-12 Edmonton Oilers NHL 78 34 42 76
2012-13 Edmonton Oilers NHL 48 16 21 37
2013-14 Edmonton Oilers NHL 80 28 37 65
2014-15 Edmonton Oilers NHL 81 24 39 63
2015-16 Edmonton Oilers NHL 69 25 22 47

Obviously, I am not saying this is likely to happen with Gaudreau. I expect him to be a top 10 point producer in the league year after year. But there is definitely still some risk.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

No you couldn't. For the past 5 years the top players have been making 10M+ in actual salary. We're not just talking Crosby and Ovechkin, but Parise and Suter. And Malkin is making under 10M. He's a bargain contract.

Yes I could