View Poll Results: Assuming a term of 7 years what will Gaudreau's AAV end up being?
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6.500 - 6.625
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9 |
1.28% |
6.625 - 6.750
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5 |
0.71% |
6.750 - 6.875
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21 |
2.99% |
6.875 - 7.000
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59 |
8.40% |
7.000 - 7.125
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89 |
12.68% |
7.125 - 7.250
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85 |
12.11% |
7.250 - 7.375
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112 |
15.95% |
7.375 - 7.500
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102 |
14.53% |
7.500 - 7.625
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71 |
10.11% |
7.625 - 7.750
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38 |
5.41% |
7.750 - 7.875
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39 |
5.56% |
7.875 - 8.000
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33 |
4.70% |
8.000 - 8.125
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21 |
2.99% |
8.125 - 8.250
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6 |
0.85% |
8.250 - 8.375
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1 |
0.14% |
8.375 - 8.500
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11 |
1.57% |
09-13-2016, 03:36 PM
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#1341
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
So by your own logic, why even offer him 6.5? Why not offer him only 3? You don't because you want him to play. And he'd be wise to sign a 1 year deal or withhold his services should the team refuse to offer him what he is worth.
The real hook is the arbitration rights and offer sheet limitations. They can effectively hold Johnny hostage if he doesn't meet their demands. This is a completely different situation than other hold outs, as Johnny literally has no alternative in the league, yet is a budding superstar. He's the future of our offense, why would you want to hold him hostage by offering him far less than he'd get in an offer sheet? He's the last guy we should be nickel and diming - why risk bad blood and a potentially unmotivated star player all to save like 1% on cap?
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If he's unmotivated because his salary is 500k to 1m less than he wanted, then he will never be happy. I believe he's a bigger man than that.
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09-13-2016, 03:38 PM
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#1342
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Franchise Player
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n/m
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09-13-2016, 03:44 PM
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#1343
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
If he's unmotivated because his salary is 500k to 1m less than he wanted, then he will never be happy. I believe he's a bigger man than that.
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Honestly, I don't think its about being a bigger man, its a psychological thing that happens no matter how much money you are making. If you feel like you are being underpaid, it can definitely effect your performance and feelings towards your organization. I am not saying that will happen, but thats the risk you run.
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09-13-2016, 03:44 PM
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#1344
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In the Sin Bin
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Had some piece on Gaudreau on SportsCenter just now. Don't have volume at work though.
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09-13-2016, 03:49 PM
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#1345
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
If he's unmotivated because his salary is 500k to 1m less than he wanted, then he will never be happy. I believe he's a bigger man than that.
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I think what Gaudreauvertime might be getting at (my goodness what am I saying), is there is likely significant downside to the Flames taking advantage of the advantageous situation JGs contract situation represents. It's got to be a balance, because his contract situation and the options it provides should impact BT's position in negotiations, however a failure to also acknowledge that JG doesn't have some of the other options other RFA have and overly taking advantage of that with a player as important as JG could be damaging to the relationship.
It doesn't feel good when someone you trust and want to have an amicable relationship with had the ability to bend you over a barrel and then simply does so because they can. That does not bode well for the future of the relationship and the feelings it will create. If I felt like my employer took advantage of a unique situation with me, and exploited it to get me at a lower value than I figured I was worth, I'm not sure how much commitment I'd feel to said employer long term.........the actual dollar amount wouldn't matter much, it would be the process.
For the record, I'm not suggesting for a second that BT and the Flames are doing the above, more pointing out that in the end, if there are hard feelings between the two sides, it likely won't boil down to the fact that JG can't live without an extra $500K a year.
Last edited by Cleveland Steam Whistle; 09-13-2016 at 03:51 PM.
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09-13-2016, 04:01 PM
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#1346
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Franchise Player
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My point was is that Treliving wouldn't push it that far. Never has, and no indication he is now.
So if there's hard feelings it'll be from the other camp. And it'll be over money. And if so, it would have happened at some point no matter what.
All the other players signed reasonable contracts without animosity.
I expect the same from him. And if he can't be professional, then you don't want him on your team.
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09-13-2016, 04:43 PM
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#1347
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I believe in the Pony Power
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
So by your own logic, why even offer him 6.5? Why not offer him only 3? You don't because you want him to play. And he'd be wise to sign a 1 year deal or withhold his services should the team refuse to offer him what he is worth.
The real hook is the arbitration rights and offer sheet limitations. They can effectively hold Johnny hostage if he doesn't meet their demands. This is a completely different situation than other hold outs, as Johnny literally has no alternative in the league, yet is a budding superstar. He's the future of our offense, why would you want to hold him hostage by offering him far less than he'd get in an offer sheet? He's the last guy we should be nickel and diming - why risk bad blood and a potentially unmotivated star player all to save like 1% on cap?
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Based on the report do you think nickel and diming is where we are at here?
When it gets to that stage, yes, I agree - don't sacrifice any long-term potential bad feelings.
But based on reports that's not where things are at. There is a material difference right now.
This ain't nickles and dimes. This is millions of dollars.
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09-13-2016, 04:49 PM
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#1348
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Sydney, Nova Scotia Canada
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__________________
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09-13-2016, 04:57 PM
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#1349
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Lifetime Suspension
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From the above video
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09-13-2016, 05:24 PM
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#1350
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Flames fan in Seattle
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I love how TSN doesn't block the ads for those of us outside of Canada, they only block the content. Wtf.
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09-13-2016, 05:25 PM
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#1351
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
My point was is that Treliving wouldn't push it that far. Never has, and no indication he is now.
So if there's hard feelings it'll be from the other camp. And it'll be over money. And if so, it would have happened at some point no matter what.
All the other players signed reasonable contracts without animosity.
I expect the same from him. And if he can't be professional, then you don't want him on your team.
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How do you know what Treliving will or won't do? This is a very unique contract negotiation, I wouldn't say any previous behavior is a guarantee of of reasonable behavior in this situation. If he is dead set on limiting AAV to 6.75M, then I don't think that is a reasonable position.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JiriHrdina
Based on the report do you think nickel and diming is where we are at here?
When it gets to that stage, yes, I agree - don't sacrifice any long-term potential bad feelings.
But based on reports that's not where things are at. There is a material difference right now.
This ain't nickles and dimes. This is millions of dollars.
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In the grand scheme of things, you are looking at 1-2% of the cap to lock in the face of the franchise at his worth. Is that amount of cap savings worth the risk of bad blood, hold outs, and a potentially disgruntled, unmotivated employee? Maybe if he was the janitor. But Johnny's the CEO.
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09-13-2016, 06:00 PM
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#1352
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
How do you know what Treliving will or won't do? This is a very unique contract negotiation, I wouldn't say any previous behavior is a guarantee of of reasonable behavior in this situation. If he is dead set on limiting AAV to 6.75M, then I don't think that is a reasonable position
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What a silly and unnecessary question. We've had two years to examine Treliving now - trades, signings, let-gos, and treatment of people (players, Flames staff, other NHL staff, agents) And at the end of it we've ample evidence that Treliving is:
1.) Smart
2.) A straight-shooter
3.) Anecdotal evidence that he's easy to do business with and relate to
4.) Not stingy (although this is more of a mandate from upper management)
So I have a lot of difficulty grasping the idea negotiations going that sour.
Quote:
In the grand scheme of things, you are looking at 1-2% of the cap to lock in the face of the franchise at his worth. Is that amount of cap savings worth the risk of bad blood, hold outs, and a potentially disgruntled, unmotivated employee? Maybe if he was the janitor. But Johnny's the CEO.
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09-13-2016, 06:07 PM
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#1353
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaskal
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What a silly and unnecessary question. We've had two years to examine Treliving now - trades, signings, let-gos, and treatment of people (players, Flames staff, other NHL staff, agents) And at the end of it we've ample evidence that Treliving is:
1.) Smart
2.) A straight-shooter
3.) Anecdotal evidence that he's easy to do business with and relate to
4.) Not stingy (although this is more of a mandate from upper management)
So I have a lot of difficulty grasping the idea negotiations going that sour.
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Like I said, has he ever been in a situation like we are currently seeing? All reports are that he is being stingy with where he currently sits (~6.5M), so that right there is contrary to what we've traditionally seen from Treliving.
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09-13-2016, 06:11 PM
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#1354
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First round-bust
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: speculating about AHL players
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This is a really smart negotiation from Treliving. He has all of the power. He shouldn't budge from $6.5 until the Gaudreau camp starts coming down on their ask, which they probably will. Really, if I'm Treliving, the number I actually want is just slightly above $7 million. He's put himself into a really good position here, because what's Gaudreau going to do, ask for a trade? I think he'd much rather be playing than sitting on the sidelines.
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09-13-2016, 06:17 PM
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#1355
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheScorpion
This is a really smart negotiation from Treliving. He has all of the power. He shouldn't budge from $6.5 until the Gaudreau camp starts coming down on their ask, which they probably will. Really, if I'm Treliving, the number I actually want is just slightly above $7 million. He's put himself into a really good position here, because what's Gaudreau going to do, ask for a trade? I think he'd much rather be playing than sitting on the sidelines.
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I think both parties would like to avoid a hold out. But I would think Gaudreau has a lot to gain from holding out if the offer doesn't get past 6.75M. Like 5-10M in contract value if the term is 8 years.
The more I think about it, I really feel like they are going to end up signing a 1 or 2 year deal. Which is not a great result IMO, as it harms our cap situation in the years when we should really be getting competitive (assuming he's still a Flame).
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09-13-2016, 06:39 PM
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#1356
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Franchise Player
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Button didn't want to come right out and say Tarasenko's contract was too high, but he sure was trying to imply it.
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09-13-2016, 06:47 PM
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#1357
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Boca Raton, FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
Like I said, has he ever been in a situation like we are currently seeing? All reports are that he is being stingy with where he currently sits (~6.5M), so that right there is contrary to what we've traditionally seen from Treliving.
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Jesus H. Christ. He literally just went through this same process with Monahan.
Why are you being intentionally obtuse?
And no, there are no "reports" because the organization is a black vault of secrecy since Treliving took over.
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09-13-2016, 06:52 PM
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#1358
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
How do you know what Treliving will or won't do? This is a very unique contract negotiation, I wouldn't say any previous behavior is a guarantee of of reasonable behavior in this situation. If he is dead set on limiting AAV to 6.75M, then I don't think that is a reasonable position.
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No, it's really not that unique. The only difference between this contract and others that Treliving has put together, is that Gaudreau's agent is swinging for the upper deck.
And yes, I think we can say that Treliving will be reasonable - in his 2 years here, he has shown to be almost Borg-like in his thoroughness and measured procedure.
Quote:
In the grand scheme of things, you are looking at 1-2% of the cap to lock in the face of the franchise at his worth. Is that amount of cap savings worth the risk of bad blood, hold outs, and a potentially disgruntled, unmotivated employee? Maybe if he was the janitor. But Johnny's the CEO.
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"At his worth" is extremely subjective. If the negotiations result in bad blood from Gaudreau, that's his choice.
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09-13-2016, 06:53 PM
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#1359
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
Like I said, has he ever been in a situation like we are currently seeing? All reports are that he is being stingy with where he currently sits (~6.5M), so that right there is contrary to what we've traditionally seen from Treliving.
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There are no reports that he is being stingy. Good try though.
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09-13-2016, 07:02 PM
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#1360
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
I think both parties would like to avoid a hold out. But I would think Gaudreau has a lot to gain from holding out if the offer doesn't get past 6.75M. Like 5-10M in contract value if the term is 8 years.
The more I think about it, I really feel like they are going to end up signing a 1 or 2 year deal. Which is not a great result IMO, as it harms our cap situation in the years when we should really be getting competitive (assuming he's still a Flame).
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He likely has little to nothing to gain from it.
A one year deal would probably be $2 - $2.5M The Flames have ZERO motivation to pay him much on a one year deal. It would mean new negotiations again next year, as well as the possibility of an offer sheet.
Using your example of $6.75M for 8 years, he might think he deserves as much as $750k more per year. Or $6M over the life of the contract.
So he plays a year at $2M (foregoing $4.75M) because he thinks he's missing $6M (over 8 years).
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