Friedman: Gaudreau negotiations will be put on hold during World Cup

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Steveyoto

What if we just give him a 1 or 2 year deal? A "show me" contract. Give him 6M per. See if he can keep up with his own hype for a couple years. If so, pay him well. If not you we are in a good spot.

The only risk with that is that we aren't cup contenders in the next 2 years, and if he goes out and finishes top 3 in scoring then we've lost our chance at getting him to a reasonable cap hit during what we'd hope would be the beginning of our cup window.

[GreenLantern2814]

I was listening to NHL radio this afternoon, and they reminded me just how many young star players don't have contracts heading into the World Cup.

Jacob Trouba, Rasmus Ristolainen, Johnny Gaudreau, Nikita Kucherov, Hamphus Lindholm, plus a few other lesser guys like Nichuskin and Orlov. But that's still four other legitimate star players that aren't signed.

This clearly isn't a situation unique to Johnny and the Flames - there's an entire wave of young players looking to set the market for the next generation of 2nd contracts. I've not heard rumblings of Buffalo looking to deal Ristolainen, or Tampa wanting rid of Kucherov.

Johnny will be here for another seven years, minimum. I think the only question at this point is if they make him the highest paid player in franchise history.

[bigrangy]

^It's actually so surprising to me to see the number of quality RFA's that still haven't signed. Risto, Lindholm, Trouba are all great young d-men, and Gaudreau and Kucherov are two of the better wingers in the league. I don't remember players of this caliber and quantity staying unsigned through the summer.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

That's not how inflation works, run the discounted cash flows yourself. Essentially it's the difference between Tarasenko's year 0 payment vs the discounted value Gaudreau's year 8 payment. The years 1-7 net out, you're right, but then you're comparing 7.5M in year 0 vs 7.5M in year 8, which is worth 5.1M in year 0 dollars at 5%. So that's 2.4M difference, but you need to inflate that back out to the midpoint of the term (4 years) to normalize like the AAV. 2.4*1.05^4 = 3.5M.

Make sense?

lol

Only an agent would have the audacity to claim that one year's inflation is worth $3.5M

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by Steveyoto

What if we just give him a 1 or 2 year deal? A "show me" contract. Give him 6M per. See if he can keep up with his own hype for a couple years. If so, pay him well. If not you we are in a good spot.

Doesn't that take him into arbitration rights territory? And you'd also have to qualify him at $6+ right?

The Flames will never have more leverage than they do right now. And they will never be able to spread UFA years across more RFA years than they can now.

Although I do like the risk mitigation of a show me deal. But if he shows you you're paying him big dollars. I kinda like gambling now at a lower AAV that he probably shows you but might not.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

lol

Only an agent would have the audacity to claim that one year's inflation is worth $3.5M

An agent, or anyone who has taken high school level economics

[Knut]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

An agent, or anyone who has taken high school level economics

It seems to me that you are hoping that johnny gets paid more than the Flames feel his value is at. As a fan should you not be happy that the team gets a better deal so they have more money to spend on players around johnny ?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheoFleury

If Gaudreau is fully prepared to sit out half the season or more, I would say whatever leverage the Flames have will disappear into nothing as the months drag on. It all comes down to how determined Gaudreau is, and nobody here has any idea how far he is willing to go. For all we know he could be 100% willing to sit out the season. Leverage is a funny thing, it can change drastically over time. Months into a holdout, RFA years, arbitration rights, etc, will mean nothing because the Flames will have most likely destroyed the relationship with the player. There is a real possibility of the Flames over playing their hand here if Gaudreau refuses to blink.

True, but it's a double edged sword.

If Gaudreau sits out for half a season or more, he will have likely forgone more income than he can ever make up. 15 years is an unusually long career. And even then, one season is 7% of it.

Also, if he holds out to the point that the season is lost, then the Flames would only have MORE resolve - why give in at that point?

No one wins with a holdout.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

An agent, or anyone who has taken high school level economics

Once again your true colours shine through.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

An agent, or anyone who has taken high school level economics

I'm not near excel but your numbers can't be right. We're talking about a $60M contract, so 5% inflation would only be $3M and that's on a nominal undiscounted basis. Go PV that to today and it's much less than $3M. Not sure how you arrive at $3.4M or if the way you arrived at $3.4M has any sound mathematical or economic basis.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Hes

It seems to me that you are hoping that johnny gets paid more than the Flames feel his value is at. As a fan should you not be happy that the team gets a better deal so they have more money to spend on players around johnny ?

I do want him as cheap as we can get him, but also don't want to nickel and dime him if he doesn't want to take a discount.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Once again your true colours shine through.

What does that even mean? You question basic economic principles and I'm the bad guy for pointing that out?

[Enoch Root]

The 5% is a joke. But more importantly, it is expected inflation that matters.

With the Canadian dollar weakening, and with a new team entering the fold soon, expected future HRR growth will be no where near 5% for now. More like zero.

Teams will not be at all agreeable to the notion of bumping contracts at all for inflation. Never mind $3.5M

[transplant99]

It's Francis so if nothing else its grain of salt time...

The Calgary Sun has learned the chasm between what the Flames are offering their franchise player and what Gaudreau’s camp is looking for is $1.5 million annually.

Sources say Gaudreau’s agent, Lewis Gross, is asking for a payday in the $8-million range while the Flames are pushing to pay between what Sean Monahan signed for ($6.375 million annual average value) and what captain Mark Giordano makes (a team-high $6.75 million AAV).

“He wants unrestricted money but he’s restricted,” said one source, who doesn’t blame Gross for the monstrous ask.

“He’s played two years in the league and is a great player, but is he that much better than (Nashville’s Filip) Forsberg ($6 million AAV) or Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3 million AAV) or Monahan? This is the one year the Flames have rights and they’re pushing hard to exercise them.

http://www.calgarysun.com/2016/09/08...-as-15-million

Discuss.

[TheScorpion]

The Flames look like they're pushing to play by the "Gio Cap", if such a thing exists. Which is stupid.

[Frequitude]

As is Gaudreau asking for UFA money during his RFA years.

This makes sense though. Not surprised by this news at all. I'd say Francis is probably right here.

Nice thing about those asks is the middle ground is reasonable based on adjusting Tarasenko's contract to 5 years of RFA. I think we end up right around 7x7. Basically hat Haynes speculated.

[Matty81]

The Flames are right to play hardball. He is a (great) one way player with no leverage.

They have 5 years of team control left. Monahan, who actually plays defense and kills penalties only had 4 years of control left.

Tarasenko is a comparable people are breaking out, and he only had 4 years of control and is a way better 2 way player imo who has scored lots more goals, no way it should be near 7.5 for me even at 8 years.

[bigrangy]

One way I see it, consider Steven Stamkos's new contract. 8.5x8, all UFA years. I would argue that Gaudreau and Stamkos are roughly similar players in how they impact the game (though Stamkos's best years are probably behind him, I can't see him (or anyone really) scoring 60 again)

If you think RFA years are worth 75% of UFA years, and we assume Gaudreau is worth roughly about as much as Stamkos as a UFA, we get .75*8.5*5+x*8.5 where x is 2 or 3.

For a 7 year deal, that would be 7 million per season, for 8, it would 7.2.

Originally Posted by transplant99

Francis: The Calgary Sun has learned the chasm between what the Flames are offering their franchise player and what Gaudreau’s camp is looking for is $1.5 million annually.

Sources say Gaudreau’s agent, Lewis Gross, is asking for a payday in the $8-million range while the Flames are pushing to pay between what Sean Monahan signed for ($6.375 million annual average value) and what captain Mark Giordano makes (a team-high $6.75 million AAV).

“He wants unrestricted money but he’s restricted,” said one source, who doesn’t blame Gross for the monstrous ask.

“He’s played two years in the league and is a great player, but is he that much better than (Nashville’s Filip) Forsberg ($6 million AAV) or Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3 million AAV) or Monahan? This is the one year the Flames have rights and they’re pushing hard to exercise them.

An 8 million ask is fair for 8 years, if they're assuming that Gaudreau will be a 9.5 million dollar player in UFA, which he very well might be.

If the Flames are after a 6.75 million dollar hit, they must think he will only be an 8 million dollar player in UFA, which, again he could be if last year was a career year (hopefully it wasn't).

Since there seems to be such a broad disagreement over the valuation of the player, the easy solution would be to go for a short (1 or 2 years) bridge deal. However, Gaudreau's camp likely wants long term financial security, and the Flames want to hopefully pay Gaudreau less than what he's worth in order to have more cap room to flesh out the roster.

[Five-hole]

Not sure that Tarasenko is renowned for his 2-way play ... He's pretty lost in the D-zone.

[JiriHrdina]

Really depends on term. If he signs for 8 - he should get something north of 6.5 - but if he's not going to give up a few UFA years than giving him that would be idiotic.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

The Flames look like they're pushing to play by the "Gio Cap", if such a thing exists. Which is stupid.

What is stupid is the viewpoint that the Flames are operating on something so simplistic or arbitrary.