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View Poll Results: Assuming a term of 7 years what will Gaudreau's AAV end up being?
6.500 - 6.625 9 1.28%
6.625 - 6.750 5 0.71%
6.750 - 6.875 21 2.99%
6.875 - 7.000 59 8.40%
7.000 - 7.125 89 12.68%
7.125 - 7.250 85 12.11%
7.250 - 7.375 112 15.95%
7.375 - 7.500 102 14.53%
7.500 - 7.625 71 10.11%
7.625 - 7.750 38 5.41%
7.750 - 7.875 39 5.56%
7.875 - 8.000 33 4.70%
8.000 - 8.125 21 2.99%
8.125 - 8.250 6 0.85%
8.250 - 8.375 1 0.14%
8.375 - 8.500 11 1.57%
Voters: 702. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 09-07-2016, 09:06 AM   #501
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Originally Posted by CroFlames View Post
http://www.generalfanager.com/players/1832

Bro, Steven Freaking Stamkos' AAV on a pure UFA contract at full term was $8.5MM. The max salary in any year is $9.5MM.

A centerman, a former 60 goal scorer, and signed it right after a 5 year deal. Total of 8 years NHL experience.

Johnny is no Stamkos.
What are you talking about max cap is $9.5M?

Lots of talk Buffalo was looking to offer Stamkos $12M per if he hit UFA
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Old 09-07-2016, 09:09 AM   #502
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What are you talking about max cap is $9.5M?

Lots of talk Buffalo was looking to offer Stamkos $12M per if he hit UFA
In the first 5 years of his deal, he's making $9.5MM. Then it drops to 7.5 and 6.5 in the last half.

Sure there was tons of talk of Stamkos making 10 to 12 million. Did he? No.

And yes, Stamkos absolutely hit UFA. That's why everyone was surprised he stayed with Tampa.
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Old 09-07-2016, 09:14 AM   #503
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Stamkos never hit UFA, re-signed 3 days before.

In re-signing, he received an 8 year contract. No other team could offer that. And the lack of taxes in Florida made the 8.5M comparable to 10M+ contracts from other teams.
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Old 09-07-2016, 09:20 AM   #504
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In the first 5 years of his deal, he's making $9.5MM. Then it drops to 7.5 and 6.5 in the last half.

Sure there was tons of talk of Stamkos making 10 to 12 million. Did he? No.

And yes, Stamkos absolutely hit UFA. That's why everyone was surprised he stayed with Tampa.
He took less money to win in Tampa so good for him and Tampa. I would love for Johnny to do the same. Stamkos took far less and signed a deal closer to Voracek than Koptiar.
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Old 09-07-2016, 09:25 AM   #505
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Well, we don't know that he 'took less money to win in Tampa'. We can only speculate.

There was 'talk' of Giordano and $9M as well. Talk is cheap. Ink - on these deals anyway - is expensive.
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Old 09-07-2016, 09:33 AM   #506
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He took less money to win in Tampa so good for him and Tampa. I would love for Johnny to do the same. Stamkos took far less and signed a deal closer to Voracek than Koptiar.
He didn't take less though.

It was reported that a 11M/year, 77M contract from Toronto would see Stamkos bring in ~30M after factoring in taxes and fixed costs like agent fees.

An 8.5M/year, 59.5M contract from a Florida team would see Stamkos bring in ~31M after factoring in taxes and fixed costs.

This was verified by tax experts who represent sport clients in the major North American sports.

Maybe you can factor in the low Canadian dollar and being paid in American as 'support' for Toronto, but in terms of net income, especially factoring in the 8th year, he probably took the highest contract.
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Old 09-07-2016, 09:33 AM   #507
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Originally Posted by Enoch Root View Post
Well, we don't know that he 'took less money to win in Tampa'. We can only speculate.

There was 'talk' of Giordano and $9M as well. Talk is cheap. Ink - on these deals anyway - is expensive.
You are only fooling yourself if you think Tampa and their $8.5M per offer would have been the biggest deal proposed to Stamkos
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Old 09-07-2016, 09:38 AM   #508
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So what you guys are saying is you think Gaudreau's UFA years are worth $10M+? Because 5x$6M + 3x$10M = $7.5M.
Yep. At least near enough. It's been years now that the top players have received 10M+ for prime UFA years. We're not just talking about Crosby and Ovechkin, but players like Parise.

Crosby averages over 10.5M a year until he's 35.
Parise averages over 10M a year until he's 35.
Weber averages 11M a year until he's 35.
Suter averages 10M a year until he's 35.
Ovechkin, going forward, makes 10M a year now until he's 35. He signed his contract in 2008 with a cap-hit of 9.5M+.
Lundqvist makes over 10M a year until he's 35.
Malkin, arguably taking a paycut, is signed for 9.5M a year until he's 35.
Kane and Toews make 10.5M a year.
Kopitar averages over 10M a year until he's 35.
Subban makes 9M a year despite signing while still an RFA.
Benn makes 9.9M a year until he is 35, once his next contract kicks in.

Maybe Gaudreau isn't quite on that level, but if it's the difference of signing an 8 year contract or bolting as a UFA as early as possible, I say give it to him.

Last edited by Oling_Roachinen; 09-07-2016 at 09:41 AM.
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Old 09-07-2016, 09:48 AM   #509
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames View Post
http://www.generalfanager.com/players/1832

Bro, Steven Freaking Stamkos' AAV on a pure UFA contract at full term was $8.5MM. The max salary in any year is $9.5MM.

A centerman, a former 60 goal scorer, and signed it right after a 5 year deal. Total of 8 years NHL experience.

Johnny is no Stamkos.
Bro, you can make the argument that Johnny is better (or at least more valuable than Stamkos) as well. He is younger and hasn't had any blood clots to boot.

It is a completely made up scenario. I am not advocating the Flames have to sign him for those numbers, but I do think they are within the realm of possibility.
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Old 09-07-2016, 09:48 AM   #510
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Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen View Post
Yep. At least near enough. It's been years now that the top players have received 10M+ for prime UFA years. We're not just talking about Crosby and Ovechkin, but players like Parise.

Crosby averages over 10.5M a year until he's 35.
Parise averages over 10M a year until he's 35.
Weber averages 11M a year until he's 35.
Suter averages 10M a year until he's 35.
Ovechkin, going forward, makes 10M a year now until he's 35. He signed his contract in 2008 with a cap-hit of 9.5M+.
Lundqvist makes over 10M a year until he's 35.
Malkin, arguably taking a paycut, is signed for 9.5M a year until he's 35.
Kane and Toews make 10.5M a year.
Kopitar averages over 10M a year until he's 35.
Subban makes 9M a year despite signing while still an RFA.
Benn makes 9.9M a year until he is 35, once his next contract kicks in.

Maybe Gaudreau isn't quite on that level, but if it's the difference of signing an 8 year contract or bolting as a UFA as early as possible, I say give it to him.
Well, you just answered your own question then, didn't you? Johnny is not on that level, nor does he deserve $10million. Or even $9MM for that matter.

Parise should obviously not be on that list.
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Old 09-07-2016, 09:51 AM   #511
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I didn't have a question to answer.

I was responding, and saying that I would have no problem 'valuing' Gaudreau's UFA years at 10M a year. He's still a mostly RFA contract, so it's not a big deal to overvalue 3/8th's of the contract by a mil or so if it means signing Gaudreau long term. If the difference is giving him a Tarasenko contract at 7.5M for 8 years, or losing him to Philly when he turns 27, give him the Taresenko contract.
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Old 09-07-2016, 09:57 AM   #512
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I'm worried that Gaudreau would deem the Tarasenko contract acceptable but the Flames are getting hung up on that 5th RFA year and are using it to try to get Johnny to come down.
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Old 09-07-2016, 10:01 AM   #513
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You are only fooling yourself if you think Tampa and their $8.5M per offer would have been the biggest deal proposed to Stamkos
You are probably right, but the point is that we just don't know. In a contract negotiation a hypothetical contract or one that is generally believed to have been offered is basically meaningless in establishing a player's actual value.
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Old 09-07-2016, 10:04 AM   #514
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I'm worried that Gaudreau would deem the Tarasenko contract acceptable but the Flames are getting hung up on that 5th RFA year and are using it to try to get Johnny to come down.
As they should. The Flames need to get this deal right in order to manage the cap down the road. Gaudreau's fifth year is a RFA year and Tarasenko's was a UFA year; this makes a big difference in how the contracts are structured and the value of the deals over the full term.
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Old 09-07-2016, 10:05 AM   #515
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Old 09-07-2016, 10:05 AM   #516
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I'm worried that Gaudreau would deem the Tarasenko contract acceptable but the Flames are getting hung up on that 5th RFA year and are using it to try to get Johnny to come down.
I would be worried if the Flames weren't doing that. I am more worried that Gaudreau's camp is trying to ignore that significant downward pressure on the deal.
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Old 09-07-2016, 10:12 AM   #517
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I would be worried if the Flames weren't doing that. I am more worried that Gaudreau's camp is trying to ignore that significant downward pressure on the deal.
If that is the hangup, they are probably fighting over $2m-$3m over the course of the deal. At some point do you not just meet in the middle?
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Old 09-07-2016, 10:12 AM   #518
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Why is it so hard for Johnny (read: Johnny's agent) to understand that he's only coming off 2 years experience, straight out of ELC. If he was coming off a bridge deal already with 4 to 5 years of NHL experience, he could negotiate for big money.

The Flames have the leverage, and they should use that leverage to get the best team-friendly deal. Low AAV for the RFA years, and then negotiate a 7 - 8.5MM for the UFA years.

Does Johnny really think he's worth 9+ million in his UFA years? More than what Stamkos' AAV is worth? Phooey.

If our wildest dreams come true, Johnny is a $8 million man in his prime. He'll never score 50 IMO.
2016 Johnny >>>>> 2016 Stamkos
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Old 09-07-2016, 10:16 AM   #519
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If that is the hangup, they are probably fighting over $2m-$3m over the course of the deal. At some point do you not just meet in the middle?
It depends on what the number is in the middle, and how that impacts the Flames' cap down the road. I expect that at some point they do find a way through, but that day is still at least a couple weeks away.
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Old 09-07-2016, 10:22 AM   #520
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It depends on what the number is in the middle, and how that impacts the Flames' cap down the road. I expect that at some point they do find a way through, but that day is still at least a couple weeks away.
I understand that but we are likely talking about a difference of around $0.25m on his AAV. I can understand the Flames wanting that for salary cap reasons but this is also the same team that doesn't have a problem throwing away money at guys like Raymond and Engelland. Just stop overpaying depth players and don't worry if your star forward is 3% overpaid.
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