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View Poll Results: Assuming a term of 7 years what will Gaudreau's AAV end up being?
6.500 - 6.625 9 1.28%
6.625 - 6.750 5 0.71%
6.750 - 6.875 21 2.99%
6.875 - 7.000 59 8.40%
7.000 - 7.125 89 12.68%
7.125 - 7.250 85 12.11%
7.250 - 7.375 112 15.95%
7.375 - 7.500 102 14.53%
7.500 - 7.625 71 10.11%
7.625 - 7.750 38 5.41%
7.750 - 7.875 39 5.56%
7.875 - 8.000 33 4.70%
8.000 - 8.125 21 2.99%
8.125 - 8.250 6 0.85%
8.250 - 8.375 1 0.14%
8.375 - 8.500 11 1.57%
Voters: 702. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 09-27-2016, 10:25 AM   #2801
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I wonder if Johnny sits out any number of regular season games, does he get booed when he finally returns?
I don't think the fans would boo him even if he did a bridge contract.
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:25 AM   #2802
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I'm only a little nervous, since the Flames twitter tells me that we still have a Bouma to go until the regular season starts. I think I'll get more nervous when we only have a Brodie left to sign him.
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:26 AM   #2803
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This article is now 26 days old but still think it's the likely outcome

Bridge!

3 years 18.9M
Way too high of a cap hit for a bridge. Under $5M per on that deal
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:27 AM   #2804
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I'm only a little nervous, since the Flames twitter tells me that we still have a Bouma to go until the regular season starts. I think I'll get more nervous when we only have a Brodie left to sign him.
I'm glad the World Cup happened this year, Johnny will have some game action under his belt before the season starts. IF he does miss majority of the preseason and practicing with the boys he should atleast be at game speed.
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:28 AM   #2805
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To expand a little bit, surely there is risk in not signing long term now but I'm not sure the upside is as limited as you are suggesting.

If he were to sign a 3 year deal for even 15M (not saying he or the Flames necessarily want that kind of deal, but just for argument's sake), that's potentially retirement money if some sort of injury occurred that limited his earning potential.
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:29 AM   #2806
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Negotiations can change in an instant. I think it's safe to say that these reports could be out of date. All it would take is Gaudreau reaching a breaking point or getting mad and telling his agent he wants a one year deal because he will have more leverage next summer. I think as we move along here, the chance of this being a long term deal diminishes
I agree that there is every possibility that things occurring behind the scenes are not reflective of what has been consistently reported. But I maintain that this is still a baseless position on pure speculation; in the absence of any actual evidence, I choose to think that both sides are still working toward the same goal.

Besides, one of the main factors in the reports being "outdated" is the World Cup moratorium that has only just ended. The reason there has been nothing new to report fits quite seamlessly with Gaudreau's decision to set negotiations on hold for three weeks.
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:30 AM   #2807
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How is that his best case? What about getting a Kane like contract in 3 years if the cap keeps rising and his stats improve a bit?
Coincidentally enough, it seems like the lack of bridge contracts is taking away team's abilities to pay 10.5 AAV contracts. It seems unlikely the Flames would be in a position to have that much cap room in 3 years. The NHL has thrived on the unsustainable cable sports bubble for a while now, it is going to hurt soon, and a decent agent should recognize that as a risk.
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:32 AM   #2808
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The Gio cap exists. At least according to Elliot Friedman it does. Still, I have to believe the Flames know that they won't get Johnny signed below that number. It is time for the Gaudreau cap.
When TJ Brodie signed for $4.65 million AAV/5 years, his AAV was higher than Gio's, it was just his salary in the first year that was lower. This could still be done for Gaudreau - ie. $6.7 million for 6 years, $9 million for last 2 years for $58.2 million total, $7.275 million AAV - or even up to $10 million for the last 2 years to bump it to $7.525 million AAV. Is that still too low for the Gaudreau camp?
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:34 AM   #2809
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When TJ Brodie signed for $4.65 million AAV/5 years, his AAV was higher than Gio's, it was just his salary in the first year that was lower. This could still be done for Gaudreau - ie. $6.7 million for 6 years, $9 million for last 2 years for $58.2 million total, $7.275 million AAV - or even up to $10 million for the last 2 years to bump it to $7.525 million AAV. Is that still too low for the Gaudreau camp?
I don't know what Gaudreau would think but I really hope the Flames aren't concerned about such things. All it does is add an unnecessary wrinkle to negotiations.
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:37 AM   #2810
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He better not be. If Treliving can't get this done he needs to go.
I certainly hope Treliving has a tangible idea of what he could get in a trade. Gaudreau's not god. He's just another asset. A hell of an asset, but still just another asset.
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:40 AM   #2811
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A lot of people assume JG wants to go the the US (and in particular Philly) because he'd be at home or even just because he's American.

I have not seen that be a factor in any RFA negotiations, and darned few UFA signings. And usually when a player wants to be in a big US city it's because they don't like the limelight of being a hockey star in a Canadian city (especially TO or Mtl) and need to be in a city with less scrutiny (like a Jaybo). Johnny doesn't strike me as that - he seems to want to be in a place that recognizes what he is.
I posted this earlier, but going over the rosters of the last three U.S. Olympic teams, only 10 per cent of the players played on Canadian teams. The bias against Canadian cities among NHL stars - particularly American stars - is real. Agents have pointed out it's real. No point pretending it's not.
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:41 AM   #2812
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I posted this earlier, but going over the rosters of the last three U.S. Olympic teams, only 10 per cent of the players played on Canadian teams. The bias against Canadian cities among NHL stars - particularly American stars - is real. Agents have pointed out it's real. No point pretending it's not.
I would be interested to see how many American players drafted by Canadian teams have opted to sign with US teams in free agency after their first or second contract.
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:44 AM   #2813
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I posted this earlier, but going over the rosters of the last three U.S. Olympic teams, only 10 per cent of the players played on Canadian teams. The bias against Canadian cities among NHL stars - particularly American stars - is real. Agents have pointed out it's real. No point pretending it's not.
You have to factor in the number of Canadians and Euros in the league, and the much smaller number of Canadian teams. 10% of top US players being on Canadian teams doesn't sound out of whack to me.

Being in the US for the sake of being in the US isn't real IMO. Being under the radar (for certain players), or maybe tax advantages, are real factors.
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:45 AM   #2814
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Aaaaand this thread has gone back to unbearable again.

Call me when the gifs come back.
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:53 AM   #2815
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Most fans understand this is just business. I can't imagine he gets booed even if this gets nasty, and it probably won't.

If Flames feel that strongly about the price, and Johnny's camp disagrees, Flames will trade him. Problem solved.
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:53 AM   #2816
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My understanding is that if Johnny isn't signed by end of preseason the Flames won't be able to take advantage of Smid going to LTIR, because LTIR only gives you relief to go over the cap if you are at it. Can anyone clarify how that works?
But if Johnny isn't signed, the Flames won't need to put Smid on LTIR (because they will be well under the cap even with Smid's salary).

So all they have to do is wait until Johnny is signed, and then put Smid on LTIR on the same day.
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:55 AM   #2817
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But if Johnny isn't signed, the Flames won't need to put Smid on LTIR (because they will be well under the cap even with Smid's salary).

So all they have to do is wait until Johnny is signed, and then put Smid on LTIR on the same day.
Or he's on LTIR but without cap relief until Johnny is signed, at which time relief kicks in.
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:57 AM   #2818
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Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
This article is now 26 days old but still think it's the likely outcome

Bridge!

3 years 18.9M
There is no way that a bridge deal has an AAV over $6M. Not a chance. A 3 year deal would be in the 4s or low 5s.

IMO:

6 year deal - low 6s
7 year deal - high 6s
8 year deal - low 7s

Zero incentive for the Flames to sign him for $6.3M on a 3 year deal. 8x8 is a way better deal for the Flames.
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Old 09-27-2016, 10:58 AM   #2819
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Or he's on LTIR but without cap relief until Johnny is signed, at which time relief kicks in.
Not sure it works that way though - that's the point.
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Old 09-27-2016, 11:06 AM   #2820
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I've been saying it from the start that I think Johnny's agent is out to lunch. Johnny has no leverage and the situation can do nothing but get worse for him.

If he sits out and misses 20 games, how much potential salary has he lost? If the Flames are offering him a 7x7 and he's refusing, he's losing almost 2million. If he sits out 1/3 or 1/2 of the season, he may NEVER be able to recoup the money lost.

I really doubt the Flames are lowballing, and it would seriously be in his best interest to take the Flame's deal.
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