I'm surprised we haven't heard more about this, given how close it is and how enormous the implications are. Here's a thread for all Iranian election discussion.
A primer:
What: The 2009 Iranian Presidential Election
When: First vote on June 12th, with a runoff vote later in the month, if necessary.
At stake: It's a well documented fact that the President is only the second most powerful position in the country behind the non-elected supreme leader. Nonetheless, the President of Iran is extremely powerful in terms of determining the foreign and domestic policies of the country, and partial control over armed forces and the nuclear program.
The candidates:
Ahmadinejad: We all know this guy. Holocaust denier, hard-line conservative, and chock full of inflammatory quotes. If there's anybody in the Iranian executive who would really like nuclear weapons, it's probably this guy, even if he won't say it publicly.
He's also very charismatic at home, in part because of his inflammatory rhetoric.
Mousavi: The primary challenger to Ahamdinejad. The moderates were somewhat fractured a few months ago, but with former president Khatami pulling out and endorsing Mousavi, the moderates look pretty united; he's got the backing of a very large and historically powerful group of clerics who feel that they've been effectively removed from the political process during Ahmadinejad's time in power. Unfortunately, his argument is primarily 'anybody but Ahmadinejad' which may make a lot of sense from our perspective, but we know from american politics and even our own that you need to have a compelling platform, not just a reason to hate the other guy. He renounces Ahmadinejad's holocaust denial and promises greater transparency in Iran's nuclear weapons program, as well as a non-confrontational, open relationship with the west. Basically, everything we would want in an Iranian president. The question is whether he can raise compelling domestic issues.
Karroubi: Another reformist and former prime minister, almost certainly gone in the case of a runoff, and in there now only to provide another voice of attack on Ahmadinejad. He'll undoubtedly back Mousavi in the case of a runoff. Karroubi finished third last time around and was the most vocal in citing corruption in the election.
Rezaee: A conservative and former commander in the IRG. Like Karroubi, extremely unlikely to have any impact beyond the first round.
Other players:
Khatami: former president who withdrew and threw his support behind Mousavi. He'll continue to be one of the most vocal figures for the moderates.
Rafsanjani: leader of the assembly of experts, and arguably the most important politicians for the moderates. If Supreme Leader Khamenei were to drop dead tomorrow, Khatami would be the odds-on favorite to take over the position and become the most moderate supreme leader the country has had, or at the very least be in a position to ensure that a moderate does take over the position. He'll be a quiet supporter of the moderates.
Khamenei: The Supreme Leader is officially neutral here, but there's no question that he wants Ahmadinejad back in, and has more than a few tricks up his sleeve to try to make this happen, particularly through the Iranian Republican Guard, who were mobilized last time around in a bring-out-the-vote campaign for Ahmadinejad. Personally, I wouldn't go so far as to say that the election is rigged (in that the winner isn't predetermined), but there's no question that they're not on an even playing field here.
The odds:
Very tough to pick. The incumbent always has the advantage and Ahmadinejad is very charismatic in a populist sort of way. That said, he's seemed on the defensive lately, and the moderates, despite not having a really great message, are at least unified.
Pre-election polls have, predictably, varied wildly, with some showing Ahmadinejad with a 30 point lead, others showing Mousavi with a similar margin, and some showing them even. I'm inclined to believe the ones showing them even.
It's been speculated that a heavy turnout favours Mousavi while a small turnout favours Ahmadinejad.
I'll leave it at that for now, but when I've got time I'll come back and post some articles about the election.
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to octothorp For This Useful Post:
The problem. The moderates are not exactly moderate.
Well, any truly moderate candidate by western standards is disqualified (and perhaps imprisoned at some later point). Any change that happens is going to happen incrementally; if Rafsanjani becomes the next supreme leader, that will definitely pave the way for even more left-wing politicians in future elections.
Still, the ideological differences between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi are probably as great as or greater than the differences between McCain and Obama.
One of my best friends is from Iran, and lived there for 30 years. She told me that most people there actually hate Ahmadinejad, and think he's somewhat of an .......
Anyway, according to her, she would be somewhat surprised if Mousavi didn't win.
__________________ Fireside Chat - The #1 Flames Fan Podcast - FiresideChat.ca
I meant to post more in this thread but now it's already election day.
Really interesting campaign. Technology has played a big roll in the young, reformist movement just as it did in the US election, but surprise, surprise, the nation's text-networking network is down today. But Mousavi's campaign seems to have a lot of momentum, and his most recent rally was the largest rally of any kind since the formation of the Republic 30 years ago.
I think it's pretty much a guarantee that there will be some vote tampering, but Mousavi can still win if he gets maybe 55% of the real votes. I'd be surprised if any side won on the first ballot though.
Both camps have declared victory, should be an interesting week ahead.
What a lot of people fail to realize is that 2/3 of Irans population is young people, under 30. Those people are mainly friendly to the west, want equal rights for women, less religious rules and more freedoms.
This election does matter, the current guy has been a thorn in the side of the world, the new guy sounds more reasonable.
Both camps have declared victory, should be an interesting week ahead.
What a lot of people fail to realize is that 2/3 of Irans population is young people, under 30. Those people are mainly friendly to the west, want equal rights for women, less religious rules and more freedoms.
This election does matter, the current guy has been a thorn in the side of the world, the new guy sounds more reasonable.
We should take what we can get.
Not really surprising for early results with Ahmadinejad in the lead: the rural areas with far less people will be reporting first, and these tend to lean toward Ahmadinejad. It'll take time for the urban votes to get counted, and this is where you'd expect to see things swing.
Both camps have declared victory, should be an interesting week ahead.
What a lot of people fail to realize is that 2/3 of Irans population is young people, under 30. Those people are mainly friendly to the west, want equal rights for women, less religious rules and more freedoms.
This election does matter, the current guy has been a thorn in the side of the world, the new guy sounds more reasonable.
We should take what we can get.
Pretty much.
Moderate is always better, even if their moderate is our hardliner.
One of my best friends is from Iran, and lived there for 30 years. She told me that most people there actually hate Ahmadinejad, and think he's somewhat of an .......
Anyway, according to her, she would be somewhat surprised if Mousavi didn't win.
That's what I heard too. A Persian girl I know said that Ahmadinejad embarassed a lot of people with his remarks about the Holocaust and homosexuals and people are tired of him trying to pass off his own personal opinions as official Iranian positions. Basically they see him as someone who thinks too highly of himself.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
I'madinnnerjacket is leading according to early polls.. I wouldnt be surprised if the elections were rigged. Plus with the clerics actually leading the country I wouldnt bet on much changing even if the other guy won.
I'madinnnerjacket is leading according to early polls.. I wouldnt be surprised if the elections were rigged. Plus with the clerics actually leading the country I wouldnt bet on much changing even if the other guy won.
I don't know much about Iran. If they rig the election and keep up with the hardline religious stuff, could the Revolutionaries have a revolution on their hands?
Someone posted an article in here once about how the young people think Ahmadinnerjacket is a jackass and how they scoff at some of the rules. IIRC, the author ran into a couple different kids listening to western music, the Eagle's Hotel California, specifically, and they weren't hiding it. So they don't worry about pissing off the authorities or Lebowski.
The Googles tell me that Hotel California was a pretty big deal in Iran. It even accompanied some news shows. Weird.
Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.
__________________
Last edited by RougeUnderoos; 06-12-2009 at 04:10 PM.
Well, looks like the official vote is probably going for Ahmadinejad by a large margin, despite all evidence that people were voting for Mousavi. It'll be interesting to see how it's handled by the Iranian authorities and by the public.
Awesome pictures. Notice how all the pretty girls are in the reformist camp. And I'm looking at those pictures where there's 40 seconds left in the SCF because they are so great.
If the Iranians elected a different president, they could so easily avoid a confrontation over nuclear weapons with the US and Israel.
__________________ “The fact is that censorship always defeats it's own purpose, for it creates, in the end, the kind of society that is incapable of exercising real discretion.”
Yeah, this is looking like a pretty clear cut case of fraud on a grand scale, far more than last election. Here's one of the strongest arguments I've seen today for demonstrating the fraud: a perfect 2:1 relation between the two candidates through the counting process.
With all three other candidates opposing the results, it represents the potential for a majority of clerics in the country to be in opposition to the supreme leader.
Now, here's the longshot ideal way of this working out: the leader of the Assembly of Experts, Rafsanjani, sent an open letter earlier this week to Khamenei warning him against the potential of electoral fraud. The Assembly of Experts ultimately has the political authority to remove the Supreme Leader from power, and he probably has the support right now in the Assembly of Experts to make it happen. Ideally, they put pressure on Khamenei and he overturns the results of the election to save his own skin. But if Khamenei and Rafsanjani dig in their heels, there's no telling how far it will go. Civil war or revolution isn't out of the question.
The Following User Says Thank You to octothorp For This Useful Post:
Iran's Presidential Elections
