|
Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: not lurking
|
Bobsleigh & Skeleton
Bobsleigh
This is one where Canada's medal prospects are pretty good, based simply on the fact that the races are in Canada. Here are the stats to back it up: in the World Championship races, the host country has medalled in every 4-man world championship dating back to 2000, and every 2-man world championship dating back to 1995, with the exception of Lake Placid in 2003. Stats are similar for Skeleton. The only sport where the host country hasn't seen an advantage is two-women bobsleigh, where it's dominated by Germany and US, regardless of location. Add in the fact that this is a new track (the Olympics will be only the second meet on them), and the Canadians' monopoly on training time gives them a significant advantage.
The World Cup meet in February will give a good indication of how much of an advantage the track is, but it could be a major, major factor.
Men's 4-man
Pierre Lueders is as close to a household name as there is in Canadian amateur winter athletics; he'll be 40 in 2010, so it may be his last meet. Last season his 4-man team got off to a great start, medaling in the first four events, but struggled in the latter part of the season. Currently, there are about six teams that are serious medal threats (the same six were at the top of the standings in 06-07 and 07-08), although we'll see how that changes in the coming year; probably not a lot. At worst, the Canadian team has a 50-50 shot amongst these top six. When you include the afore-mentioned track issues, those odds increase. This is a solid medal contender.
Men's 2-man
Lueders was great in 06-07, medalling in all but one World Cup race (his partners changed through the season, but didn't seem to affect his performance) and tying for the points lead. This last year, he struggled, medalling in only three. He needs to get back on form over the next 16 months, and based on his overall consistency I'm still counting him as a medal contender here.
It's also worth keeping an eye on Lydon Rush, who was 16th on the circuit last year, but had a couple top ten finishes, including one in Calgary. Bobsleigh tends to be a veteran's game, with four of the top bobsledders in their late 30s, so we'll see if Rush can make that next step over this season.
two-woman
This has always been a German-dominated sport, and the top two teams in the world right now are both German. But Helen Upperton finished third on the World Cup circuit last year, a hair away from 2nd. She had two golds, including one on her home course of Calgary, so she has the ability to upset the German teams, especially on home turf. I'm going to leave her in the medal hopeful category for now, but if she repeats that performance this year (including a win in Vancouver in February) I'll upgrade her to contender status.
Cailey Humphries ranked fifth in the last world cup season, including a bronze in Lake Placid and a 4th in Calgary. If she can remain consistent this year, she may have a shot at a medal in 2010.
Skeleton
Like Bobsleigh, course familiarity is a huge advantage. At the last meet in Calgary, Canadians won 4 of 6 possible medals in the solo events. A repeat performance in Vancouver is not out of the realm of possibility.
Men`s
Jon Montgomery finished 2nd in overall points last season, though the margin between him and the Americans in 3rd and 4th was very narrow. The top four athletes each had four podium appearances. I don't think he's a lock to the same extent as some other medal prospects, but he's definitely capable of medalling. Call him a hopeful at this point.
Paul Boehm won the event at Calgary last year and had a fourth at the Turin Olympics, so again the possibility to medal is there. His last season was cut short so we'll see how he rebounds this year.
Jeff Pain was a silver medalist a Turin, but didn't compete on the WC circuit last year (I could be wrong but I think he missed the cut at the national team selection event) but still placed 3rd at the national championship. He'll need to rebound to get back to the form that made him the top Canadian skeleton athlete in recent years.
Women`s
Michelle Kelly was second in world cup points last year and had three golds including Calgary. Her consistency and high results make her an excellent prospect to medal in Vancouver.
Melissa Hollingsworth-Richards won the overall points title in 05-06 and won the bronze in Turin, and finished third in world cup points last year. The fact that she medalled only twice (but once in Canada) keeps her in the hopeful category, but she's definitely got the talent and is still in her prime.
Carla Pavin, like Hollingsworth-Richards, had a bronze and a silver on the WC circuit last year, but if she puts everything together at the right time, could medal.
|
