Is Iran getting dangerous?

[T@T]

and could they start a s*!t show?

They just test-fired a rocket today that they claim is to "carry a research satellite into space", they refuse to give up their nuclear program because it's for "peaceful purposes", great! now they have ballistic missiles to deliver the bombs their making.

Personally i have a hard time trusting a barbaric nation that publicly stones young woman to death because their horny and publicly hang men because they like the same sex.

I can see the Israelis starting the 3-2-1 countdown to go in and bomb the facility's off the map very very soon.

[chris lindberg]

They must feel like a bird in a birdcage with the U.S. being the hungry cat, surrounded from all sides.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by chris lindberg

They must feel like a bird in a birdcage with the U.S. being the hungry cat, surrounded from all sides.

Wow. I love the absolute brainless relativity displayed by some people.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by chris lindberg

They must feel like a bird in a birdcage with the U.S. being the hungry cat, surrounded from all sides.

Agreed. All people and all religions in the world would be happy if not for Dick Cheney.

[octothorp]

I'm more concerned about Iran's internal human rights record than any international implications. Khamenei is vocally very anti-nuclear weapons, and his fatwas aren't things to be taken lightly. They are, of course, concerned about increasing US control in the region, and are mounting a show of bravado as a result of that.

But keep in mind that they're entering an election cycle. The conservative forces (particularly Ahmadinejad) will try to up the nationalistic rhetoric as part of their election strategy. I'd expect a lot more sabre-rattling over the next year.

Hopefully, one of the reformists will win next year. All signs point to a swinging of the pendulum back toward the reformists; Ahmadinejad's popularity has been declining, and his candidates lost ground in the Assembly of Experts, which is now controlled by the moderate Rafsanji. If Rafsanji were to run again, he'd have a solid shot at winning; he's not one of the more radical reformers, but he's in favour of negotiating a nuclear deal with the west, among other reform policies.

The biggest issue with Iran is what happens when Khameni dies (and I haven't seen any reports that his health is suspect, so this may not happen for another decade or more). If it were to happen right now, Rafsanji and the Assembly of Experts would likely end up installing a more moderate and reformist Supreme Leader. But the Revolutionary Guard has become so powerful under Khamenei, and what would happen if they don't support a more moderate Supreme Leader who would probably reduce their powers? A peaceful transition to a more moderate leader would be great, but violent internal struggle would be awful for the whole region.

[Azure]

How can a reformist win if all the elections are staged?

[fredr123]

Let's get dangerous!



First thing that came to mind...

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Azure

How can a reformist win if all the elections are staged?

There's a limit to what they can do to limit the reformists chances. Iran is no Iraq.

The best thing the West could do now is not comment much to what they're saying over there. The more the West tries to affect the elections and the more it responds to the nationalist sabre-rattling, the better for the nationalists. Ahmadinejad is pretty good at making himself look stupid, and shouting threats to people who don't seem that threatening and even less afraid tends to look pretty stupid.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Azure

How can a reformist win if all the elections are staged?

Same way that the chief political rival of both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, Rafsanjani, and a variety of moderates and reformists took control of the Assembly of Experts and obtained the vast majority of votes.

Looking at the last election, the reformists and moderates had the majority of the votes, but in the second round runoff, many of the reformists voted for Ahmadinejad, rather than the moderate Rafsanji, as there was general suspicion about Rafsanji.

Here's why you'd think it would be different this time around:

• A reformist-dominated Assembly of Experts, which will help keep the Guidance Council and Republican Guard in check, reducing unfair election influence.
• No overwhelmingly charismatic conservative leader capable of drawing moderates and reformists. The veneer has worn off Ahmadinejad, he won't have the same draw he had last time around.
• A more formal alliance between moderate and reformist parties. In-fighting killed them last time, and they look to be far more on the same page this time around, although a lot can change in a year.

edit: I meant to also add: it's important to look at how the election was affected, and this plays to Itse's point a bit. There isn't ballot stuffing, or vote rigging, or threats and intimidation. Instead, it's Guidance Council officials and Republican Guard members moblizing Ahmadinejad's base. This can be overcome.

And I also agree completely with Itse's point about how the best thing the west can do is keep a low profile and avoid biting on the baiting by conservative forces in Iran, and nor should they comment positively on the reformists and moderates.