Prediction Time.....Alberta 2008

[flamey_mcflame]

Okay you political pundits, neophytes, everyday geniuses and competition lovers. It's time to "pollitize" your educated guesses. Simple game, here are my predictions. (2004 results beneath 2008 prediction).

The winner will get a cheque for $1 Canadian from yours truly.
*NOTE: CHEQUE WILL NEITHER BE HONORED NOR ISSUED

My Picks
2008 RESULTS(83 seats)

Progressive Conservatives 59
Liberals 21
New Democrat Party 2
Wildrose Alliance 1

Bonus Question
Voter turnout % 48



2004 RESULTS(83 seats)

Progressive Conservatives 61
Liberals 17
New Democrat Party 4
Wildrose Alliance 1

Bonus Question
Voter turnout % 44(record low)

[REDVAN]

My Picks
2008 RESULTS(83 seats)

Progressive Conservatives 49
Liberals 23
New Democrat Party 8
Wildrose Alliance 3

Bonus Question
Voter turnout % 57

[Thunderball]

2008 RESULTS(83 seats)
Progressive Conservatives 48
Liberals 28
Wildrose Alliance 5
New Democrat Party 2


Bonus Question
Voter turnout % 52

[jolinar of malkshor]

2008 RESULTS(83 seats)

Progressive Conservatives 51
Liberals 25
Wildrose Alliance 3
New Democrat Party 4


Bonus Question
Voter turnout 40%

[moon]

2008 RESULTS(83 seats)

Progressive Conservatives 50
Liberals 24
New Democrat Party 4
Wildrose Alliance 5

Bonus Question
Voter turnout % 43

[Rhetts_the_Best]

2008 RESULTS(83 seats)

Progressive Conservatives 61
Liberals 16
Wildrose Alliance 4
New Democrat Party 2

Bonus Question
Voter turnout 51%

[Ford Prefect]

I'm not going to try to figure out the seat breakdown, but I think the PCs are in for a tumble. I think they will survive with a very thin majority of around 45 seats or less, so they'd better make sure all butts are in their seats on votes. I think the Liberals will form the opposition with 20+ seats, but the WRA will be the surprise of the election and will win 10+ seats. The NDP will be lucky to just retain party status.

[ricoFlame]

Progressive Conservatives 67
Liberals 15
New Democrat Party 1
Wildrose Alliance 0

Voter turnout: 41%

not too much change on the horizon in alberta

[Resolute 14]

PC 53
Liberal 24
NDP 3
WRA 3

Voter turnout: 52%

Also, the Liberals will point to their increase as a sign people care about them again, rather than the truth: that people are protesting against the PCs rather than jumping to the Liberals. Vote splitting with the WRA will win the Libs a rural seat or two.

[vanisleflamesfan]

2008 RESULTS(83 seats)

Progressive Conservatives 40
Liberals 37
Wildrose Alliance 0
New Democrat Party 5
Greens 1


Bonus Question
Voter turnout 47%

[Phaneuf3]

2008 RESULTS(83 seats)
Progressive Conservatives 45
Liberals 32
Wildrose Alliance 2
New Democrat Party 3
Greens 1


Bonus Question
Voter turnout 49%

[Dan02]

I wanna see a conservative minority so eddie can be replaced with a suitable leader, then in a couple years government disolved and there can hopefully be a party running that i don't have great disdain for.

[Resolute 14]

Given that neither the WRA nor the NDP will win more than a handful of seats (and lol @ the Greens winning even 1), I would think a minority government would be a near impossibility.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Given that neither the WRA nor the NDP will win more than a handful of seats (and lol @ the Greens winning even 1), I would think a minority government would be a near impossibility.

yeah it's unfortunate. Last poll i saw had the Conservatives at 49%. While a minority of popular vote, last i heard usually around 40%+ results in a majority.

Last federal election the PC managed to get 36.2% of the vote and were only 30 seats away from a majority.

[Thunderball]

Popular vote can be deceptive though... the Liberals might only run at 15% in rural Alberta, but actually perform around 45% in Calgary and Edmonton... they'd average out somewhere in the mid-30s. The WRA and the independent conservatives are definitely going to wreak havoc in Calgary and rural Alberta. They might win a handful of seats, but they're guaranteed to steal PC vote.

[JohnnyFlame]

PC 54
LIB 21
WRA 4
NDP 4

Turnout 45%

[octothorp]

Conservative 45
Liberal 28
NDP 4
WRA 5

Conservatives lose all three seats they hold in Edmonton, four rural seats three small-city seats, and six Calgary seats.

Liberals pick up two in Edmonton, three small city, and six calgary seats.

NDP pick up one in Edmonton.

WRA gain four rural seats.


Turnout: 54%

[Slava]

Cons: 48
Liberals: 26
NDP: 6
WRA: 2
Other: 1

[ken0042]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Given that neither the WRA nor the NDP will win more than a handful of seats (and lol @ the Greens winning even 1), I would think a minority government would be a near impossibility.

But I think the WRA has the potential this time to split the right vote- and that might help the Liberals win a few.

My predictions:

2008 RESULTS(83 seats)
Progressive Conservatives 42
Liberals 35
Wildrose Alliance 5
New Democrat Party 1
Greens 0


Bonus Question
Voter turnout 34%

[Phaneuf3]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

(and lol @ the Greens winning even 1)

i'd lol if it happened too... pretty unlikely but with the number of former conservative voters that say they're planning on voting green as a protest vote, not impossible for them to pick up 1.