Wednesday/Thursday weather warnings - "Increased Potential For Tornadoes"

[KevanGuy]

Heads up all around central Alberta today. Things look like they might get severe. Kinda hard to say at this point who all will be getting the storms but it looks like foothills, over to RD and up to Edmonton. Calgary doesn't look like it is at too much risk.

But tomorrow (Thursday) looks like it could be one crazy day. Calgary-Red Deer - Edmonton corridor could be in for some severe stuff. Environment Canada says "THIS SITUATION LOOKS PARTICULARLY EXPLOSIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION OVER ALBERTA."

I'll be watching the situation starting first thing in the morning and will keep you all updated. Though, if it is going to be a crazy as they say I will probably be out on the road when it is all going down.

[FireFly]

That sounds like fun, actually. It's a shame my skylight leaks... right over my bed.

[KevanGuy]

EC has just issued a Special Weather Statement about tomorrow. They drop the 'T' word too, something I didnt want to mention in my earlier post.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR..
CITY OF CALGARY
AIRDRIE - COCHRANE - OLDS - SUNDRE
OKOTOKS - HIGH RIVER - CLARESHOLM
ROCKY MOUNTAIN HOUSE - CAROLINE
RED DEER - PONOKA - INNISFAIL - STETTLER.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUED FOR..
DRUMHELLER - THREE HILLS
BROOKS - STRATHMORE - VULCAN
HANNA - CORONATION - OYEN.

THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS PRODUCED UNUSUALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF ALBERTA IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN FOR
THURSDAY. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK IS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NEAR
AND EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS. A STRONG JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO CUT
ACROSS THE PROVINCE THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES.

THIS IS IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

edit to add: The same Satement is out for the areas below as well:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR..
CITY OF EDMONTON - ST. ALBERT - SHERWOOD PARK
SPRUCE GROVE - MORINVILLE - MAYERTHORPE - EVANSBURG
FORT SASKATCHEWAN - VEGREVILLE - REDWATER - SMOKY LAKE
DRAYTON VALLEY - DEVON - RIMBEY - PIGEON LAKE
LEDUC - CAMROSE - WETASKIWIN - TOFIELD
WESTLOCK - BARRHEAD - ATHABASCA
WHITECOURT - EDSON - FOX CREEK - SWAN HILLS
SLAVE LAKE.

[Resolute 14]

So am I finally going to get to see some storm action in Kingsland?

[Shawnski]

Figures... slopitch night.

[Alana Flames]

Originally Posted by Shawnski

Figures... slopitch night.

heeeey...me too. what league?

[Shawnski]

...

[Nufy]

I'm golfing @ Priddis tomorrow...

Hope it holds off till 1 pm or so....

[Hemi-Cuda]

don't these storms form relatively quickly? how can they predict what will form tomorrow?

[ricosuave]

wow kris, you're such a weather geek! LOL

[KevanGuy]

All is quiet tonight...the literal calm before the storm (tomorrow)? We shall see.

[OilKiller]

Originally Posted by KevanGuy

All is quiet tonight...the literal calm before the storm (tomorrow)? We shall see.

It's been pretty windy and very humid here in Edmonton all afternoon and this evening. Still 26 at 9:15. Could get interesting tonight and tomorrow...

[KevanGuy]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

don't these storms form relatively quickly? how can they predict what will form tomorrow?

The conditions necessary for the storms to develop are somewhat predictable.

For example, say its hot in Calgary. A high pressure system is over the city, keeping things nice and warm. If a low pressure system is moving south from Grand Prairie or whatever; that is observable. Knowing that storms will occur on the line where the low and high pressure systems meet, you can then predict when and where they will happen.

That example isn't really what is happening tomorrow but gives you an idea.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by KevanGuy

The conditions necessary for the storms to develop are somewhat predictable.

For example, say its hot in Calgary. A high pressure system is over the city, keeping things nice and warm. If a low pressure system is moving south from Grand Prairie or whatever; that is observable. Knowing that storms will occur on the line where the low and high pressure systems meet, you can then predict when and where they will happen.

That example isn't really what is happening tomorrow but gives you an idea.

ah, so still though they're only predicting the conditions in which a storm might develop, and not an actual storm like say a hurricane that they can track and very accurately predict it's strength and path

[KevanGuy]

Yeah exactly. Just like tonight, things looked ripe to start up but in the end nothing really came of it (so far). But for tomorrow, the fact they put out the Special Weather Statement says something. They generally wont 'scare' people unless they think this stuff has a pretty good chance of going down.

[Eddie Bronze]

All this talk about predicting weather made me think of that ad that David Spence has on 660 News. He says something to the effect of, "you think it's impossible to predict? Well we don't!" How many times has he paid out the $660 on this guaranteed high? LOL!

Just checked the weather maps and there is a low pressure system over most of BC right now and they have it moving towards us.

[FlamesKickAss]

25 degrees at 10:20 crazy!!

[InSutterWeTrust]

I was just checking out Environment Canadas Radar and just SouthWest of High River there appears to be something big that just came on the radar, we might get something in the next couple hours.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar..._e.html?id=XSM

[Nufy]

I am in Deer Ridge and I can see something big coming in from the NW.

Dark Clouds and lots of lightening

Cochrane is probably getting hammered right now...

[KevanGuy]

Yeah Im watching that system there. Hard to say if it will fully make it over the mountains. I'll tell you what, if it does make it over and stirs things up enough we could be in for some good stuff.