Electoral college: Bush still leads...

[transplant99]

Its somewhat misleading when people quote polls saying Kerry is leading this or Bush is leading that. They really dont matter much in the overall scheme of things.

In the only race that matters, IE; the electoral college votes, its a very interesting competition.

Right now, Bush appears to lead by a mile, however, Kerry looks to be overtaking 2 key states and closing the gap a bunch in two others.

If the election were held today, Bush likely would win 301 electoral votes to Kerry's 237, according to a new CNN survey based on state polling as well as interviews with campaign aides and independent analysts. A candidate wins the election with at least 270 electoral votes, regardless of the popular vote.

Bush's margin appears unchanged from last week. Boosted by his performance in the Miami, Florida, debate and new questions about Bush's rationale for invading Iraq, however, Kerry looks as if he is threatening the president's lead in New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Iowa, which hold a total of 82 electoral votes. If Kerry picks up Ohio and Florida, he would lead Bush in the Electoral College, 285 to 253.


Clearly the key battlegrounds on Nov 2 will be Ohio and Florida. Again.

Its a horse race

This is just one such survey however. Maybe others show something different.

[Cowperson]

The article is based on the impact of poll results taken BEFORE the 2nd Presidential debate.

It seems to me the first debate cost Bush about 5% as he seemed to be leading 52-47 or 53-48, etc. before settling down into a tie.

The issue is whether or not a better performance in St. Louis recovered the 5% who were with him before but drifted off after he sucked wind in the first debate then was submarined by a series of bad news through the ensuing week.

This oft-quoted site is putting Kerry ahead 271-238 in the electoral college and includes some post-2nd debate polling.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Cowperson

[troutman]

I have it 276 for Bush, 258 for Kerry, 4 up for grabs with the LA Times Electoral Vote Tracker. Many of the polls in the Southern Bush states are dated and may not reflect the effect of the debates. Ohio is Kerry and Florida is Bush right now. Very close.

[TheCommodoreAfro]

The biggest swing will be the demographics of the new voters, or those who are unlikely who exist outside of this polling, who don't have a phone number themselves or still living in their parent's basement.

I have a feeling these numbers will prove to be slightly off on November 2.