N. Korea missile aimed at area off Hawaii - report

[Azure]

TOKYO (Reuters) - A North Korean missile launched on Wednesday was aimed at an area of the ocean close to Hawaii, a Japanese newspaper reported on Friday.

Experts estimated the Taepodong-2 ballistic missile to have a range of up to 6,000 km, putting Alaska within its reach. Wednesday's launch apparently failed shortly after take-off and the missile landed in the sea between the Korean peninsula and Japan, a few hundred kilometres from the launch pad.
But data from U.S. and Japanese Aegis radar-equipped destroyers and surveillance aircraft on the missile's angle of take-off and altitude indicated that it was heading for waters near Hawaii, the Sankei Shimbun reported, citing multiple sources in the United States and Japan.

You know, NK may only be doing this to defend themselves, but frankly, its scaring the crap out of me.

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060707/3/2mty8.html

[Muta]

Defending themselves by firing the first missle?

I feel extremely sad for the people of North Korea, in that they have to put up with a maniacal halfwit in Kim Jong Il...

I wonder if Kim Jong Il is just mad after seeing Team America: World Police.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Muta

Defending themselves by firing the first missle?

I feel extremely sad for the people of North Korea, in that they have to put up with a maniacal halfwit in Kim Jong Il...

I wonder if Kim Jong Il is just mad after seeing Team America: World Police.

According to Red Mile Style, all NK is doing is defending themselves.

I don't agree with him.

[Mike F]

Iraq -- no nukes, weak army --> Invaded
Iran -- nukes? strong army --> Negotiation, appeasement

Having nuclear weapons, a huge army, the ability to devastate Soeul, etc. is the best defense North Korea could have against an attack.

If they could develope a missile that could reach the US and the technology to miniaturize a nuke to us as a warhead they would be virtually untouchable.

Kim Jong-Il has no designs on invading or attacking anyone, he just wants to be safe from invasion himself.

[4X4]

How many nukes would it take to completely destroy NK? The USA?

[FireFly]

Wipe it out? Less than 50 for NK I'd imagine, and likely nearing 1000 for the US.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Mike F

Iraq -- no nukes, weak army --> Invaded
Iran -- nukes? strong army --> Negotiation, appeasement

Having nuclear weapons, a huge army, the ability to devastate Soeul, etc. is the best defense North Korea could have against an attack.

If they could develope a missile that could reach the US and the technology to miniaturize a nuke to us as a warhead they would be virtually untouchable.

Kim Jong-Il has no designs on invading or attacking anyone, he just wants to be safe from invasion himself.

Only difference being, the US has a chance to shoot down the missile before they reach NA. NK doesn't.

Once upon a time the idea of MAD kept nations from starting a nuclear war, I don't think NK would think twice about taking out Hawaii if they had the chance.

[Mike F]

Originally Posted by Azure

Only difference being, the US has a chance to shoot down the missile before they reach NA. NK doesn't.

Suuuuure they do .

Originally Posted by Azure

Once upon a time the idea of MAD kept nations from starting a nuclear war, I don't think NK would think twice about taking out Hawaii if they had the chance.

To what end?

They'd immediately be wiped off of the face of the planet it they did so.

Kim Jong-Il has a god complex and a warped sense of priorities, but he's not insane.

[Cowperson]

Originally Posted by Mike F

To what end?

They'd immediately be wiped off of the face of the planet it they did so.

Kim Jong-Il has a god complex and a warped sense of priorities, but he's not insane.

I would agree he's not insane . . . . . . he's also smart enough to know that no one is going to attack him either, nukes or not.

He's just desperate to stay afloat and save his hide . . . . . he's got a Ceaucescu ending coming up at some point I think.

The primary worry is that he'll give someone nefarious a nuke in exchange for cash.

Cowperson

[Azure]

Suuuuure they do .

Well according to Bush they do.

To what end?

They'd immediately be wiped off of the face of the planet it they did so.

Kim Jong-Il has a god complex and a warped sense of priorities, but he's not insane.

Why would he develop the nukes in the first place? Surely he knows that Japan, the US and France will call for strict measures.

Oh right, he doesn't care about his people, so sanctions will not do much.

[peter12]

Launching a missile near area is almost tantamount to an act of war. If the Americans find out where launch sites are do they use tactical nukes to wipe them out, this negating the threat of a NK preemptive strike?

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally Posted by peter12

Launching a missile near area is almost tantamount to an act of war. If the Americans find out where launch sites are do they use tactical nukes to wipe them out, this negating the threat of a NK preemptive strike?

This story is so much bull**** its not even funny. According to the Americans, this was a multi-stage rocket and probably capable of altering its course during flight. Now they're trying to say that from 40 seconds of launch information they were able to identify exactly where it was headed and where it was going to land? Uh huh. During the first 40 seconds it hadn't even managed to burn the first stage completely. Also, this missile was destroyed in the first 40 seconds of flight, indicating a malfunction or complete failure. They were still capable of identifying where it was going and where it was going to land? Man, them Japanese mathematicians sure are good!

Launching a missile into international waters is not an act of war. Get a grip. Christ people, do you realize that you are saying its okay for the United States to make pre-emptive nuclear strikes, of their liking, simply because THEY say there is a threat? The United States is the one of the last countries in the world that I would trust at this point. Their actions and dogma are no in alignment. They are untrustworthy as any nation they accuse of crime. The whole "axis of evil" stuff is fabricated bull**** meant to scare the crap out of weak minded idiots. Sadly, its working, and not just on the weak minded idiots in the United States.

[Poison]

Could not have said it any better myself, Lanny

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Lanny_MacDonald

This story is so much bull**** its not even funny. According to the Americans, this was a multi-stage rocket and probably capable of altering its course during flight. Now they're trying to say that from 40 seconds of launch information they were able to identify exactly where it was headed and where it was going to land? Uh huh. During the first 40 seconds it hadn't even managed to burn the first stage completely. Also, this missile was destroyed in the first 40 seconds of flight, indicating a malfunction or complete failure. They were still capable of identifying where it was going and where it was going to land? Man, them Japanese mathematicians sure are good!

Launching a missile into international waters is not an act of war. Get a grip. Christ people, do you realize that you are saying its okay for the United States to make pre-emptive nuclear strikes, of their liking, simply because THEY say there is a threat? The United States is the one of the last countries in the world that I would trust at this point. Their actions and dogma are no in alignment. They are untrustworthy as any nation they accuse of crime. The whole "axis of evil" stuff is fabricated bull**** meant to scare the crap out of weak minded idiots. Sadly, its working, and not just on the weak minded idiots in the United States.

Absolutely unbelievable. What planet do you live on Lanny?

[arsenal]

Originally Posted by Lanny_MacDonald

This story is so much bull**** its not even funny. According to the Americans, this was a multi-stage rocket and probably capable of altering its course during flight. Now they're trying to say that from 40 seconds of launch information they were able to identify exactly where it was headed and where it was going to land? Uh huh. During the first 40 seconds it hadn't even managed to burn the first stage completely. Also, this missile was destroyed in the first 40 seconds of flight, indicating a malfunction or complete failure. They were still capable of identifying where it was going and where it was going to land? Man, them Japanese mathematicians sure are good!

Take the trajectory and speed of said object, and based on mathematical calculations, you can figure out approximately where said object is going to land. 40 seconds is more than enough time to determine where the missle was going to land. That being said, this is based on IF the rocket stayed on it's projected course. It does not, and cannot take into account alterations to the course of the rocket.
If it was as you said a multi-stage rocket, capable of altering it's direction mid-flight, then yah, it could have ended up anywhere.

You should know that.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally Posted by peter12

Absolutely unbelievable. What planet do you live on Lanny?

Earth, where the United States does not run the show. I'm so sick and tired of the garbage that passes as "news" and people swallow it. When does critical thought come into play? Obviously, in your case Peter, not very often. What ever the United States, and its puppet allies, says is good enough for you.

What part of "mutual assured destruction" do you NOT understand? America does NOT want nukes in the hands of every nation because THEY lose the leverage and threat factor that they can hold over every nation's head. America plays nice with countries that can fight back. America likes weak nations that it can manipulate. North Korea is trying to prove it is not a weak nation.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally Posted by arsenal

Take the trajectory and speed of said object, and based on mathematical calculations, you can figure out approximately where said object is going to land. 40 seconds is more than enough time to determine where the missle was going to land. That being said, this is based on IF the rocket stayed on it's projected course. It does not, and cannot take into account alterations to the course of the rocket.
If it was as you said a multi-stage rocket, capable of altering it's direction mid-flight, then yah, it could have ended up anywhere.

You should know that.

And this goes against what I said in what way?

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by Lanny_MacDonald

They were still capable of identifying where it was going and where it was going to land? Man, them Japanese mathematicians sure are good!

Both sides speak some of the truth, and both sides are overreacting at the same time.

Did NK aim the missle at Hawaii? It should be easy to pinpoint where the rocket would land IF (and this is a big if) the rocket speed and direction did not change during its flight.

Assuming that the rocket would not have been diverted during flight is somewhat foolish. Every little action does not have some kind of a nefarious plot against the US.

At the same time, automatically assuming that the rocket WOULD have been diverted during flight is ignoring possible risks. A lot of Bush / CIA criticism about 911 focussed on the possibilities of intelligence pointing to a risk and no action towards it, yet this viewpoint automatically does this. It cannot be an automatic assumption that the "good hearted path" is going to be followed.

Each of these is at opposite ends of the spectrum and each has a certain grain of truth. Would NK want to strike the US on their test run? I find it foolish to believe that. Would NK want to see if they could strike the US on their test run? I see that as a possibility.

All I see in this thread so far is two viewpoints: (1) Jump to conclusions that NK meant to attack the US, only that their rocket failed; and (2) Immediately and totally disregard anything to do with the rocket's path, since it was only a test.

Take the middle ground.

[Cowperson]

Originally Posted by arsenal

Take the trajectory and speed of said object, and based on mathematical calculations, you can figure out approximately where said object is going to land. 40 seconds is more than enough time to determine where the missle was going to land. That being said, this is based on IF the rocket stayed on it's projected course. It does not, and cannot take into account alterations to the course of the rocket.
If it was as you said a multi-stage rocket, capable of altering it's direction mid-flight, then yah, it could have ended up anywhere.

You should know that.

Not only can you figure out fairly easily with current monitoring technology the direction the missile might be going with only 40 seconds of data, you can also do a pretty fair guesstimate, based on the size of the missile and its probable propellant, what its ballistic arc would be . . . . hence its range.

In other words, you could easily determine the direction its going and also how far it could go.

North Korea has also shot rockets over Japan so the burden of proof is on North Korea to demonstrate the intent was not to overfly Hawaii.

I've never seen any indication whatsoever that the relatively primitive North Koreans have any capability for altering a missile in flight or that they have any MIRV technology that could also alter the course of a weapons load. So far, it looks like point and shoot.

Hey, maybe they're going to the moon!!!

Lastly, it does seem odd that throughout the 40 some years of the Cold War, neither the Chinese nor the Soviets seems to have thought that overflying New York with unannounced ICBM tests was a good idea ., . . . or vice versa.

The various sides certainly had incursions into the airspace of opponents by aircraft, testing the defenses so to speak, but lobbing rockets around was a definite no-no.

Perhaps all parties thought that doing that would have been considered an act of war . . . . . or at the very least making someone on the other side jumpy and inviting one.

Yet, apparently that's not the case for the poor North Koreans.

Cowperson

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

Not only can you figure out fairly easily with current monitoring technology the direction the missile might be going with only 40 seconds of data, you can also do a pretty fair guesstimate, based on the size of the missile and its probable propellant, what its ballistic arc would be . . . . hence its range.

Really Cow? First you are making some pretty big assumptions. You would be saying that you know how all the stages were configured and what their burn times would be. This was supposed to be a missile the United States knew little about, but all of a sudden they are able to say, with very little confirmable data, that they were 100% correct in their assumptions. Seems like bull**** to me.

North Korea has also shot rockets over Japan so the burden of proof is on North Korea to demonstrate the intent was not to overfly Hawaii.

Really? Since the rocket never left North Korean airspace I don't think they have the burden of anything, except embarassment that their "hugely dangerous" rocket blew up in their own faces.