Things not going well for U.S. in Afghanistan either...

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Civilian deaths could fuel Taliban support?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060528/...ivilian_deaths

The United States made a huge tactical error in spreading themselves so thin. They should have made a decision to go after one target and clean it up. The should have stayed in Afghanistan, cleaned it up, killed bin Laden, and rebuilt that country and its economy, and then made a decision on their next move. The mess they have left behind in Afghanistan continues to erode, Iraq is going completely off the rails, and Iran is becoming a very serious problem. What a complete and total mess.

[Canada 02]

I was living in Asia at the time of the US invasion of Iraq. At the time, North Korea was performing naval maneuvres off the coast of South Korea, testing missles, sabre rattling about their nuclear program etc. I don't know if it was widely reported here in North America. Some reporters or analysts on CNN-Asia (or maybe it was BBC Asia-Pacific or some other Asian branch of western media) was discussing the possibility of North Korea ramping up for an attack on South Korea to coincide with the US invasion of Iraq. The theory was that the Americans would be stretched so thin in Afganistan and Iraq that they would take their eye off N. Korea. Obviously, that was just the musings of a one person that didn't lead to anything.

Several years later, with the US diverting there attention to Iran as well, could Kim Jong Il step up and take advantage? They've had an additional 4 or 5 years to work on their nuclear weapons program, surely they have had enough time to accumulate enough plutonium for at least one bomb.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

North Korea (or Jong Il anyways) freaks me out.

Far too quiet for my liking.

[Otto-matic]

I feel a WWIII will break out soon
Just a gut feeling that there will be another world war to deal with.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Otto-matic

I fell a WWIII will break out soon
Just a gut feeling that there will be another world war to deal with.

That gut feeling has been around since the Cold War began in the 50's and peaked at the Cuban Missile Crisis in 62. I felt that nuclear bombs were about to start dropping and this probably effected lots of my generation to become very anti-war.
Tensions have gradually eased until BushII came to power. The question is, is warmongering Bush responsible or is he just a victim of our times?

[Looger]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

North Korea (or Jong Il anyways) freaks me out.

Far too quiet for my liking.

'quiet' means that the corporate north american media conglomerates aren't bombarding us with partial truths aboot north korea, at this exact moment.

there is plenty of rhetoric spewing all over the world right now, always, and forever.

newsmax.com or softwar.net are two sites, right-wing-leaning, semi-respectable and independent (pay) respectively, that keep all kinds of tabs on china and north korea.

when it comes into the interests of said corporate mega-media to villainize kim-jong-il or whomever, then we'll 'hear' plenty from them.

EDIT:

as for the thread, the afghanistan and iraq insurgencies are both spiralling out of control and osama bin laden remains uncaught. black-ops and locally-trained death squads and provacateurs and mercenaries and all rest of the wierd underbelly of the pet projects of the intellectual gangsters running the pentagon are green-light-go.

sounds like it's going pretty good to me...

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Looger

'quiet' means that the corporate north american media conglomerates aren't bombarding us with partial truths aboot north korea, at this exact moment.

there is plenty of rhetoric spewing all over the world right now, always, and forever.

newsmax.com or softwar.net are two sites, right-wing-leaning, semi-respectable and independent (pay) respectively, that keep all kinds of tabs on china and north korea.

when it comes into the interests of said corporate mega-media to villainize kim-jong-il or whomever, then we'll 'hear' plenty from them.

I was actually referring to Bush and the U.S. as well.

Before the invasion of Iraq, all we heard from him was how Hussein had all these WMDs and was willing to use them.

Well, North Korea not only has a nuclear program, but has basically told the rest of the world to butt out.

Why isn't the U.S. invading North Korea?

[Looger]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Why isn't the U.S. invading North Korea?

better stop right there, because the next logical question would be, 'why invade iraq?'

there's no reason for any of it, that doesn't involve oil or israel's long-term objectives.

north korea is definitely the faraway leader in the world for a rogue nation that could trigger a nuclear nightmare, from an american perspective, but the only way to take them down without a retaliatory strike would be to completely and totally nuke the entire country.

they have enough artillery aimed at seoul to reduce it to rubble in minutes, easily killing millions. so that has to be destroyed right away with nukes.

they can move tanks and infantry through underground tunnels that are EVERYWHERE. yes, bunker-busters can pierce them. probably cost billions in bunker-busters.

they have a committed populace and a fanatical army. their equipment isn't all that bad, either.

the ability to move men and material underground can not be understated - war is logistics, war is moving men and supplies.

the one serious advantage the US has is air superiority, but invading north korea would be a complete slugfest and there would be resistance until the large majority of the populace is slaughtered. these people have been preparing for this nightmare for a long, long time and the description 'hermit kingdom' is an apt one.

from a realistic standpoint however, north korea has nukes, tunnels, etc. to defend itself from invasion, or to deter invasion. make it such an expensive proposition that no one will do it.

and there is no oil there.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Looger

north korea is definitely the faraway leader in the world for a rogue nation that could trigger a nuclear nightmare, from an american perspective, but the only way to take them down without a retaliatory strike would be to completely and totally nuke the entire country.

they have enough artillery aimed at seoul to reduce it to rubble in minutes, easily killing millions. so that has to be destroyed right away with nukes.

All the reasons you stated are true, but you're leaving out one other really important reason why the U.S. will not invade North Korea... and that is China.

China is much more powerful now than it was 50 years ago, and I don't think they would stand for having the U.S. launching a pre-emptive war in their sphere of influence. That last thing the U.S. wants to do is wake China and have them projecting power in the U.S.'s sphere. The U.S. invading Korea at this point would be like China invading Mexico.

Also, the U.S. invading Iraq is like Chuck Norris kicking ass in a kindergarten. I think they are a little more scared to screw with Korea.

[Azure]

What if the US "does" invade NK? Yet finds no evidence of Nuclear Weapons? Can I then quote everyone here that said they had them?

[Looger]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

All the reasons you stated are true, but you're leaving out one other really important reason why the U.S. will not invade North Korea... and that is China.

absolutely.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Looger

better stop right there, because the next logical question would be, 'why invade iraq?'

there's no reason for any of it, that doesn't involve oil or israel's long-term objectives.

north korea is definitely the faraway leader in the world for a rogue nation that could trigger a nuclear nightmare, from an american perspective, but the only way to take them down without a retaliatory strike would be to completely and totally nuke the entire country.

they have enough artillery aimed at seoul to reduce it to rubble in minutes, easily killing millions. so that has to be destroyed right away with nukes.

they can move tanks and infantry through underground tunnels that are EVERYWHERE. yes, bunker-busters can pierce them. probably cost billions in bunker-busters.

they have a committed populace and a fanatical army. their equipment isn't all that bad, either.

the ability to move men and material underground can not be understated - war is logistics, war is moving men and supplies.

the one serious advantage the US has is air superiority, but invading north korea would be a complete slugfest and there would be resistance until the large majority of the populace is slaughtered. these people have been preparing for this nightmare for a long, long time and the description 'hermit kingdom' is an apt one.

from a realistic standpoint however, north korea has nukes, tunnels, etc. to defend itself from invasion, or to deter invasion. make it such an expensive proposition that no one will do it.

and there is no oil there.

Good post, Looger........thanks for the response.

One thing is for sure, things could get real ugly in a hell of a hurry around the world.

Or has the process started already?

/shuddder

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally Posted by Azure

What if the US "does" invade NK? Yet finds no evidence of Nuclear Weapons? Can I then quote everyone here that said they had them?

Everyone except me. I don't think they have them yet. I think they have a program, and are close, but are a few years short of the bomb. I think they are missing some key technology that they are hoping that some saber rattling will shake loose from another nation during negotiations to fulfill their desires. Same goes for Iran. I think if you look historically, countries remain silent until they either have the bomb, or hit that proverbial wall where their programs can't go forward and they need something to push them over the top. I think North Korea and Iran have both hit the wall and need the assistance of someone else. By saber rattling they are hoping to force nations to pick sides so they can snuggle up to a nation who will give them the technology they need. I know I would play it the exact same way, especially with the Americans trapsing around the world flexing their muscles and ****ing everyone off. By putting the Americans on the other side of your fence you automatically get the benefit of the doubt who don't trust the U.S. foreign policy.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally Posted by Looger

they can move tanks and infantry through underground tunnels that are EVERYWHERE. yes, bunker-busters can pierce them. probably cost billions in bunker-busters.

The Americans have cancelled a test of an abover ground weapon test that was designed to impact deep underground tunnels. The test was to take place in Nevada and include the denotation of a 700 tonne (1,540,000 pounds) slurry of amonium nitrate and fuel oil. That would be equivalent to a small tactical nuke. Seems to me that the drums of war are getting a little louder when you read between the headlines.

[Mike F]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

North Korea (or Jong Il anyways) freaks me out.

Far too quiet for my liking.

From everythig I've read, and from talking to a professor who is a recent immigrant from South Korea, North Korea as a nation isn't a thread to start anything. Everything they've done and are doing, from the build up of troops, to the ballistic missile program, to the artillary tubes pointed at Soeul, to the development of nuclear weapons, is all defensive in nature and aimed at providing security against invasion by the west. Kim Jong-Il is happy in his little socialist/communist utopia in Pyongyang and isn't interested in world domination.

The only real threat from North Korea, which may, in fact, be a legitimate reason for military action, would be the sale of nuclear technology to other states or rogue groups as they've done with their ballistic missile technology.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Mike F

From everythig I've read, and from talking to a professor who is a recent immigrant from South Korea, North Korea as a nation isn't a thread to start anything. Everything they've done and are doing, from the build up of troops, to the ballistic missile program, to the artillary tubes pointed at Soeul, to the development of nuclear weapons, is all defensive in nature and aimed at providing security against invasion by the west. Kim Jong-Il is happy in his little socialist/communist utopia in Pyongyang and isn't interested in world domination.

The only real threat from North Korea, which may, in fact, be a legitimate reason for military action, would be the sale of nuclear technology to other states or rogue groups as they've done with their ballistic missile technology.

I would agree with this, however, they still have a massive amount of main battle tanks, tubed and rocket artillary, massive amounts of special forces troops and commando's and massive amounts of infantry. They also posses a decent mix of long range fighter bombers and interceptors. To say that Kim Jong-Il dosen't have the offensive firepower to clubber the south is somewhat naive.

However I think even Kim Jong-Il realizes that the window for the Liberation of the South is closed. The south posseses a army with more offensive punch, more advanced air ground and sea units, and a army with a higher moral thats better fed and healthier.

Its actually been shown that the North Korean's have done underground atomic weapons testing on a small megaton scale.

The North Korean's currently posses many varients of the Scud missile which is not really useful for launching atomic warheads. but they've also tested the Paeutudan-1 two stage missile which is equivalent to the SS4 solid fuel missile with a range of 2500 KM and the NKSL-1 three stage IRBM with a range of 3000 KM's out of the No-Dong facility. If you go by some logic, the NK's have small arrows (warheads), and they're trying to develope the bow (missiles) with sufficient range to hit all of South Korea.

An excellent book on the subject is called "under the loving care of the Heavenly leader" which covers the history of North Korea under the Kims.
Its an interesting and frightening read.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Originally Posted by Lanny_MacDonald

Everyone except me. I don't think they have them yet. I think they have a program, and are close, but are a few years short of the bomb. I think they are missing some key technology that they are hoping that some saber rattling will shake loose from another nation during negotiations to fulfill their desires. Same goes for Iran. I think if you look historically, countries remain silent until they either have the bomb, or hit that proverbial wall where their programs can't go forward and they need something to push them over the top. I think North Korea and Iran have both hit the wall and need the assistance of someone else. By saber rattling they are hoping to force nations to pick sides so they can snuggle up to a nation who will give them the technology they need. I know I would play it the exact same way, especially with the Americans trapsing around the world flexing their muscles and ****ing everyone off. By putting the Americans on the other side of your fence you automatically get the benefit of the doubt who don't trust the U.S. foreign policy.

Not only that Lanny, but I don't believe Kim would do anything that dramatic without China on board. I don't think that day is coming anytime soon either.

China may, at some point, want to show equivalent or better military force to the US to establish its dominance in the Pacific, but they wouldn't benefit much by crippling the American economy. I believe China will keep Kim in check.

[Mike F]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

To say that Kim Jong-Il dosen't have the offensive firepower to clubber the south is somewhat naive.

I didn't say anything of the sort -- they do have a massively powerful army, but the reason that it was amassed was mainly for defensive, protective purposes, not to invade anyone, so the notion that North Korea is some sort of serious threat to international peace would be wrong.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

No-Dong facility.

....

[HOZ]

Originally Posted by Mike F

I didn't say anything of the sort -- they do have a massively powerful army, but the reason that it was amassed was mainly for defensive, protective purposes, not to invade anyone, so the notion that North Korea is some sort of serious threat to international peace would be wrong.

To believe that is to ignore several glaring examples to the contrary.

4 of which are these.
1.2 million man army.
Infiltration tunnels into the South
300-400 Sea and land cammando infiltrations each year
300+ citizens in Japan and South Korea kidnapped

Now they may have finally realised that they cannot win any conflict against the ROK but they sure are not a beneign hermit kingdom only looking after themselves.