Why Not Belarus? - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

FlamesAddiction · 03-25-2006, 01:59 PM

I'm just wondering why western governments aren't trying to incite regime change in Belarus right now.

Here is a country that has been ruled by a tyrant for years. Just recently there has been reports of election rigging (again), and hundreds of pro-democracy protesters have been arested.

For years, there have been reports of torture from detention centres. Lukashenko eavesdrops on citizens to find and punish dissenters.

Now out of fear, the opposition leaders in Belarus are giving up. The latest pro-freedom front has been crushed in just days, while nobody even seems to care.

The country is surrounded by other democracies with similar histories and cultures, so it's not like it would be introducing something foreign to them.

Maritime Q-Scout · 03-25-2006, 02:05 PM

they're not a percieved threat at the moment, that's probably the biggest reason.

CalgaryCowboy · 03-25-2006, 02:09 PM

I believe the leader is pro Russia and the west doesn't want to upset them. Unfortunately the west is only pro democracy when it fits thier needs.

FlamesAddiction · 03-25-2006, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

they're not a percieved threat at the moment, that's probably the biggest reason.

I guess not, but they're certainly not trying to sell it either.

Iraq was not an imminent threat, but some countries (not mentioning any names), went out of their way to sell them as a threat.

If any western governments wanted to help Belarus form a free democracy, they'd have their propaganda machines spinning it right now. Besides, isn't Belarus one of the those countries that could quite possibly have nuclear materials for sale?

All these same statements could apply to Moldova too btw, and yet very little mention of them by our leaders or the media.

Vulcan · 03-25-2006, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CalgaryCowboy

I believe the leader is pro Russia and the west doesn't want to upset them. Unfortunately the west is only pro democracy when it fits thier needs.

I was wondering why Russia, now a democracy, didn't interfere in Belarus to help the people. I guess Russia is following the same policy as the USA. As long as the government is our friend, screw the people.

Like you say, the West won't interfere for the same reason they won't interfere in N. Korea. They don't want to upset China.

FlamesAddiction · 03-25-2006, 02:45 PM

Nobody cares about Russia anymore.

Russia didn't want us in Bosnia, they didn't want NATO to bomb Serbia, they didn't want Milosević on trial for war crimes, they didn't want the U.S. to invade Iraq, they didn't want the west to support the Orange Revolution, they didn't want former Warsaw Pact countries joining NATO, etc, etc....

All those things have come to pass.

KGB33 · 03-25-2006, 02:47 PM

Maybe they don't have very much oil!

Vulcan · 03-25-2006, 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Nobody cares about Russia anymore.

Russia didn't want us in Bosnia, they didn't want NATO to bomb Serbia, they didn't want Milosević on trial for war crimes, they didn't want the U.S. to invade Iraq, they didn't want the west to support the Orange Revolution, they didn't want former Warsaw Pact countries joining NATO, etc, etc....

All those things have come to pass.

Moving troops into and bombing the former Yugoslavia isn't as drastic as doing the same on Russia's border to a former part of the USSR. Yugoslavia was having an all out civil war, and although communist, was pretty independent and not truely a client state of the USSR. I could be wrong, but Russia may be inclined to react a little stronger if foreign troops invade.

FlamesAddiction · 03-25-2006, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Moving troops into and bombing the former Yugoslavia isn't as drastic as doing the same on Russia's border to a former part of the USSR. Yugoslavia was having an all out civil war, and although communist, was pretty independent and not truely a client state of the USSR. I could be wrong, but Russia may be inclined to react a little stronger if foreign troops invade.

It's true that Yugoslavia was not a client state of the USSR, but Russia and Serbia have always been cultural allies. Russia often refers to Serbia as it's "little brother" and has stood up for Serbia in just about every international dispute it's been involved in. The USSR was also dismantled at the time NATO bombed Yugoslavia. And I'm sure Russia would be even more PO'd if we interfered in Belarus, but I still doubt that they would do anything about it.

I'm also not sure an invasion of Belarus would be necessary to bring regime change. The country is already teetering. The threat would probably be enough.

oldschoolcalgary · 03-25-2006, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KGB33

Maybe they don't have very much oil!

sadly, your comment has some degree of truth...Belarus is not a country of significance when it comes down to it...much like how the western democracies (not just the US) ignored Rwanda or what is happening right now in places like the Sudan.

the politcal will is simply not there - there has to be a "benefit" to countries who get involved and as of this point, there is none (other than pure humanitarian reasons).

FlamesAddiction · 03-25-2006, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

sadly, your comment has some degree of truth...Belarus is not a country of significance when it comes down to it...much like how the western democracies (not just the US) ignored Rwanda or what is happening right now in places like the Sudan.

the politcal will is simply not there - there has to be a "benefit" to countries who get involved and as of this point, there is none (other than pure humanitarian reasons).

I tend to agree.

I also think that election rigging, eavesdropping, media censorship, arresting and beating protesters, and torture of political prisoners in secret prisons are not frowned upon by certain powerful "democratic" countries anymore.

Vulcan · 03-25-2006, 04:09 PM

"not frowned upon" you say.Lets call a spade a spade and say a certain republic we all know and love has fallen to the level of it's competion.

Bobblehead · 03-25-2006, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vulcan

I was wondering why Russia, now a democracy, didn't interfere in Belarus to help the people. I guess Russia is following the same policy as the USA. As long as the government is our friend, screw the people.

Like you say, the West won't interfere for the same reason they won't interfere in N. Korea. They don't want to upset China.

Rumour has it that Russia was involved in the fix, similar to the recent Ukraine elections. The report I heard said that there was the beginning of another 'orange revolution'.

Incinerator · 03-25-2006, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I'm just wondering why western governments aren't trying to incite regime change in Belarus right now.

As far as I know there is no oil in Belarus...

Resolute 14 · 03-26-2006, 12:45 AM

It isn't politically prudent to do so.

Governments do not act out of good will for their people or another nations people. Governments act to enhance their own power, wealth or control.

Cube Inmate · 03-26-2006, 01:00 AM

In addition to oil, I'd say it has something to do with the fact that the population is mostly Christian, without as many of those offensive, backwards Muslims who need to be shown the light...

Please note the sarcasm before flaming...

Looger · 03-26-2006, 07:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vulcan

"not frowned upon" you say.Lets call a spade a spade and say a certain republic we all know and love has fallen to the level of it's competion.

has everyone forgotten the 1980s or something?

american adventurism in central america, death squads, autocratic regimes, strongmen, civil war, well it looks exactly like iraq does today.

this 'sudden switch' of the united states in peoples minds, boggles me.

Lanny_MacDonald · 03-26-2006, 07:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Looger

has everyone forgotten the 1980s or something?

american adventurism in central america, death squads, autocratic regimes, strongmen, civil war, well it looks exactly like iraq does today.

this 'sudden switch' of the united states in peoples minds, boggles me.

Here, here! Where's the applause emoticon???

Looger · 03-26-2006, 07:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snakeeye

It isn't politically prudent to do so.

Governments do not act out of good will for their people or another nations people. Governments act to enhance their own power, wealth or control.

bingo bongo.

belarus is not ukraine also in that it doesn't have as separate a language and history, it will always be close to the vest no matter what outsiders do. ukraine in my opinion has shown a little wiggle room, while still mostly under russia's sway anyway.

also, no gigantic numbers of nuclear missiles like kazakhstan and ukraine, and it was never a strategic piece of territory in the cold war, the puppets to belarus' west were where the fighting was scripted by the soviets to be.

icarus · 03-26-2006, 08:38 AM

Why Belarus?

There are dozens of other countries in the same boat.

The Cold War is over, and forced democratisation is seemingly only justifiable now in places where there is a terrorist or security threat (real or perceived).